Reuters-US yields march higher Asia stocks sag amid Fed angst
September 26, 2023 3 min 608 words
这篇报道描述了美国国债收益率攀升至16年来的新高，导致亚洲股市下跌，原因是投资者对美联储和其他主要央行表明利率可能会保持较高水平更长时间的消息感到担忧。文章提到，亚太股市、黄金以及欧洲股市都表现疲软，同时原油价格也在从10个月高点回落。美元指数保持强势，而10年期美国国债收益率升至4.566%，创下自2007年以来的最高水平。 这一报道反映了当前全球经济面临的挑战，尤其是美联储和其他央行采取紧缩政策，导致市场对未来的不确定性感到焦虑。高收益的美国国债吸引了投资者，推高了美元的价值，但也给亚洲和欧洲股市带来了下行压力。黄金和原油市场也受到了利率上升的影响。 报道中引用的分析师观点表明，市场对于未来走势存在不同看法，有人认为美国国债收益率还会进一步攀升，而有人则认为已经接近峰值。这种不确定性增加了市场的波动性，使投资者难以确定下一步的行动。 总的来说，这篇报道突显了全球金融市场的复杂性和不确定性，投资者需要密切关注央行政策和经济数据，以做出明智的投资决策。同时，这也提醒我们，全球经济的走势对于各国货币和资产价格都有重大影响，需要谨慎管理风险。
U.S. Treasury yields scaled fresh 16-year peaks on Tuesday, keeping the dollar near a 10-month high, as investors responded to the message from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks that rates are likely to stay elevated for longer.
Asia-Pacific stock benchmarks sagged along with gold, with European equities also set for a weaker open, while crude oil continued to drift back from 10-month highs.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose as high as 4.566%, a level not seen since October 2007.
The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major developed market peers, including the euro and yen - ticked up 0.09% to 106.04, after reaching 106.10 overnight for the first time since Nov. 30.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) slumped 0.66%.
Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.93%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.98% and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) retreated 0.4%.
U.S. stock futures pointed 0.35% lower, following a 0.4% rise for the S&P 500 (.SPX) overnight. Pan-European STOXX 50 futures fell 0.17%.
Westpac strategists see risks skewed toward even higher yields in the near term, buoying the dollar.
"We expect 10-year yields to establish a new, higher, range in coming weeks," with a possible peak around 4.75%, they wrote in a client note. "Medium term, we would be looking to get long at some stage, but that time is not yet upon us."
The next target for the dollar index is 107.20, they said.
By contrast, IG analyst Tony Sycamore says technical indicators suggest a top for Treasury yields is close.
"I think that over the next three or four days, we're going to see yields start to come off, and U.S. equities could start to base," he said. "But between now and then, it could get more ugly, that's for sure."
Traders now put the odds of another quarter-point Fed hike by January at a coin toss, and have pushed the likely start of rate cuts to summer.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that inflation staying entrenched above the central bank's 2% target remains a bigger risk than tight Fed policy slowing the economy more than needed.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said more rate hikes are likely needed given the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also touted higher rates for longer in policy meetings since the middle of the month.
The relative outperformance of the U.S. economy - with investors increasingly betting on a soft landing while growth in the euro zone and Britain stagnate - has buoyed the dollar against those currencies.
The euro sagged 0.08% to $1.0584, approaching the overnight low of $1.0575, a level last seen in mid-March.
Sterling slipped 0.14% to $1.2196, taking it back toward Monday's six-month low of $1.21945.
The dollar also held near an 11-month peak of 148.97 yen from overnight, raising the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold drifted slightly lower to $1,914.15, extending its slump from above $1,947 over the past week.
Crude oil remained weak amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight.
Brent crude futures were down 38 cents at $92.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading 34 cents lower at $89.34.