纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英老龄化经济放缓债务累累中国东北的复兴难题

Hundreds of workers at a factory in Shenyang in northeastern China weld automated machines, 95 yards long, that are used to bore subway tunnels. At another factory there, employees assemble robots that China’s solar panel makers will use to streamline their production.

在中国东北沈阳的一家工厂里，数以百计的工人正在焊接用于开挖地铁隧道的自动化机器，这些机器长约85米。在当地的另一家工厂，员工们在组装机器人，中国的太阳能电池板制造商将使用这些机器人来提高生产效率。

Shenyang is the capital of Liaoning Province, one of three large provinces in the northeast that constitute the cradle of China’s heavy industry. Now the central government, confronting a national economy that has slowed because of a real estate crisis that defies easy fixes, is turning to cities like Shenyang. It hopes to squeeze more productivity and efficiency out of the region’s factories.

沈阳是辽宁省的省会，辽宁在内所在的东北三省是中国重工业的摇篮。现在，面对因难以轻易解决的房地产危机而放缓的国民经济，中央政府正转向沈阳等城市，希望提高该地区工厂的生产力和效率。

But those factories tell only part of the story of the economy of northeastern China, underlining the challenges facing Beijing policymakers, who are turning to what many economists believe is a tired playbook focused on industrial investments instead of more social benefits for consumers.

但这些工厂只是中国东北经济的一部分，凸显了北京政策制定者面临的挑战，他们正在转向许多经济学家认为已经过时的策略。

The region’s birthrate is plummeting: A quarter of the population is 65 or older, and that share is growing about two percentage points a year, while the share of working-age adults is declining by about the same amount. Fewer people are buying new homes, apartment prices are falling and construction cranes are less active.

该地区的出生率正在急剧下降：四分之一的人口年龄在65岁及以上，这一比例正以每年约两个百分点的速度增长，与此同时，适龄工作人口的比例也在以大约相同的幅度下降。购买新房的人减少了，公寓价格在下跌，建筑起重机也不再那么活跃。

Northeastern China is like the Michigan and Ohio of Chinese manufacturing, but with a population considerably grayer than Florida’s. In many ways, the region is a composite of the most deeply embedded problems facing the country’s economy.

东北就像中国制造业版的密歇根州和俄亥俄州，但人口老龄化程度比佛罗里达州高得多。许多方面看，这里综合体现了中国经济面临的最深层问题。

The area is heavily in debt. Public revenues are slumping because of the real estate bust. Pensions are the responsibility of the region’s three provincial governments — Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang — and their cost is soaring.

这个地区负债累累。由于房地产泡沫破裂，公共收入正在大幅下降。养老金是由该地区三个省级政府——辽宁、吉林和黑龙江负责，其成本正在飙升。

On a recent evening, Zhang Shaocheng, 70, a retiree from a state-owned paint factory, waited with other seniors for a free outdoor movie at a shuttered Shenyang machinery factory. He appreciates that today’s factories emit less pollution than the ones from his working years, but he and other seniors are counting on the government to take care of them.

最近的一个晚上，国有油漆厂的退休工人、70岁的张少成（音）和其他老人在沈阳一家已关闭的机械厂里等着看免费的户外电影。他对如今的工厂比他工作时排放的污染少表示赞赏，但他和其他老人都指望政府来照顾他们。

“The air is good now, and I have a pension,” Mr. Zhang said.

“空气好了，我有退休金，”张少成说。

As the Chinese economy has slowed this year, the northeast is perilously close to tipping into a recession. Making sure that the economy of China’s industrial heartland can keep growing and support a rising pension burden, as well as produce more exports, has become a top priority in Beijing.

随着中国经济今年放缓，东北地区正危险地接近衰退。确保中国工业中心地区的经济能够保持增长，支撑不断上升的养老金负担，并且生产更多出口产品，已成为北京的当务之急。

In early September, when heads of state gathered for the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, stayed home and traveled to northeastern China.

9月初，当各国首脑齐聚新德里参加20国集团峰会时，中国的最高领导人习近平却留在国内，前往东北地区。

The region holds strategic importance. It encompasses sensitive regions abutting North Korea and Russia. It is home to much of China’s armaments industry, first built with Soviet advisers in the 1950s. It is China’s main producer of grain and crude oil. And it has been a bastion of China’s Communist Party since the 1940s and a hub of often strident nationalism.

该地区具有重要的战略意义。它包括与朝鲜和俄罗斯接壤的敏感地区。这里是中国大部分武器工业的基地，最初是在20世纪50年代与苏联顾问一起建造的。它也是中国主要的粮食和原油产地。自20世纪40年代以来，它一直是中国共产党的重镇，也是时常激化的民族主义的中心。

Mr. Xi called for quick action. What has emerged after the trip, and from media briefings in Liaoning arranged by the national government, is a plan largely focused on more public investment, a longtime theme of Beijing’s policies. A notable aspect of the program involves digital technology, steps like upgrading car factories with robots.

习近平呼吁迅速采取行动，尽管他一如既往地将具体细节留给下属处理。他的访问结束后，从中央政府在辽宁安排的媒体吹风会中，可以看到一个主要侧重于增加公共投资的计划，这是北京长期以来的政策主题。该计划的一个值得注意的方面涉及数字技术，比如用机器人升级汽车工厂。

What’s missing from it are measures that could boost consumer confidence, such as expanded unemployment benefits and pensions, or direct payments to households to stimulate spending. Such steps have been absent from measures undertaken so far to try to help the national economy.

它缺少的是能够提振消费者信心的措施，比如扩大失业救济和养老金，或者直接向家庭发钱以刺激消费。迄今为止，在为帮助国民经济而采取的一系列措施中，还没有出现这样的举措。

The biggest step taken so far to increase demand for goods from the northeast is also the measure most likely to upset the West: selling more to Russia. Chinese automakers have captured half the car market there, for example, after Western rivals pulled out last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

迄今为止，为增加对东北商品的需求而采取的最大行动，也是最可能令西方不安的：向俄罗斯出售更多商品。例如，在去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，西方竞争对手退出后，中国汽车制造商占据了该国一半的汽车市场。

“The northeast is an important gateway for our country to open to the north,” Mr. Xi declared during his visit to Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang.

“东北是我国向北开放的重要门户，”习近平在访问黑龙江省省会哈尔滨时表示。

In many ways, China’s northeast is a natural target for economic stimulus based on public investment. In other parts of the country, many young job seekers shun factory jobs, seeking office work for even half the pay. But the northeast still has many multigenerational families of technicians.

从很多方面来说，中国东北地区理所当然地成为基于公共投资的经济刺激措施的目标。在国内其他地区，许多年轻的求职者不愿在工厂工作，而是去找办公室工作，哪怕工资只有在工厂的一半。但东北地区仍有许多几代同堂的技工家庭。

“In the northeast, the manufacturing culture is strong,” said Li Kai, an economist at Northeastern University in Shenyang.

“东北的制造业文化很浓厚，”沈阳东北大学经济学家李凯说。

The region’s iron ore mines, steel mills and machinery factories are little affected by trade issues like the United States’ restrictions on superfast semiconductors. A factory in Shenyang that makes car seats for Germany’s BMW, for example, imports a less advanced semiconductor from Italy to manage the seat’s complex movements.

该地区的铁矿、钢铁厂和机械厂几乎不受美国对超高速半导体的限制等贸易问题的影响。例如，沈阳一家为德国宝马生产汽车座椅的工厂从意大利进口了一种不太先进的半导体，用于控制座椅的复杂移动。

“It is not a high-end chip, so there is no impact,” said Kou Chuang, the business manager at the factory, which is owned by two Chinese auto parts manufacturers, Jinbei and Yanfeng.

“这不是高端芯片，所以没有影响，”该厂的业务经理寇闯（音）说。该厂由两家中国汽车零部件制造商金杯和延锋所有。

Shenyang has also joined a recent national move by Chinese cities to ease mortgage rules. Home buyers now can qualify for the same discounted interest rate given to first-time buyers, even if they previously owned a home and already paid off its mortgage.

沈阳也加入了放宽房贷规定的中国城市的行列。购房者现在可以享受与首次购房者相同的优惠利率，即使他们以前拥有房屋并已经还清了房贷。

The northeast is home to many state-owned enterprises, some of which have sought greater efficiency by gradually shifting to partial private ownership.

东北是许多国有企业的所在地，其中一些企业通过逐步转向部分私有制来提高效率。

Northern Heavy Industries in Shenyang, which has expanded rapidly since the 1950s, underwent a corporate overhaul in 2013. Today, Fangda Group, a privately held Liaoning conglomerate, holds a majority stake. Bingshan Group, a refrigeration equipment giant in Liaoning, is one-third owned by the municipal government of Dalian, where it has its headquarters, but has sold a small stake to Panasonic of Japan.

位于沈阳的北方重工自上世纪50年代起迅速扩张，2013年进行了企业改革。如今，辽宁民营企业集团方大集团持有多数股权。辽宁制冷设备巨头冰山集团总部位于大连市，其三分之一的股份归大连市政府所有，但已将一小部分股份出售给了日本松下公司。

To stabilize consumer spending in the region, the government is investing in building culture-themed shopping plazas and museums that might prompt residents and tourists to spend money.

为了稳定该地区的消费支出，政府正在投资建设以文化为主题的购物广场和博物馆，这可能会促使居民和游客花钱。

Officials in Liaoning have stepped up spending on cultural institutions like the Liaoning Ballet Troupe, which had 30 performances in 2022 and already more than 40 this year.

辽宁官员加大了对辽宁芭蕾舞团等文化机构的投入，该剧团在2022年演出了30场，今年已经超过40场。

The company recently performed an original composition, “Iron Man,” about industrial workers in the 1950s, hoping to attract the province’s many seniors while trying to draw a younger audience as well.

舞团最近上演了一部原创作品《铁人》，讲述20世纪50年代产业工人的故事，希望在吸引该省的许多老年人的同时，也能有年轻人来看。

“We want the young people to know what their fathers have done,” said Qu Zijiao, the ballet’s director.

“我们想让年轻人知道他们的父辈们做了什么，”该芭蕾舞团的导演曲滋娇说。

Summer tourism has picked up after the lifting of Covid controls in December. Cool weather made the northeast a popular destination as other parts of China baked in scorching temperatures.

去年12月疫情防控措施解除后，夏季旅游业有所回暖。凉爽的天气使东北成为受欢迎的目的地，与此同时，中国其他地区则在受到高温炙烤。

Sue Sui, 50, an accountant from Beijing, sat on the beach in Dalian on a mid-September afternoon. She said she had not been able to visit in midsummer because every affordable hotel had been fully booked.

9月中旬的一个下午，现年50岁、来自北京的会计隋素（音）坐在大连的海滩上。她说，她没有在盛夏时节前来，因为所有价格实惠的酒店都已被预订一空。

“There is revenge tourism spending,” she said.

“有报复性旅游，”她说。

Yet weaknesses in consumer spending persist. Retail sales per person in Liaoning Province are just a third of the level in Beijing or Shanghai and half what they are in vibrant provinces in southeastern China.

然而，消费者支出仍然疲软。辽宁省的人均零售额仅为北京或上海的三分之一，是中国东南部经济活跃省份的一半。

There was almost nowhere to spend money at the well-preserved brick factory buildings where Mr. Zhang, the retiree, and others attended the outdoor movie. A small coffee shop was hidden behind a windowless door in a distant, unlit corner with no signage.

在那些保存完好的砖石结构工厂建筑里，几乎没有地方可以消费，已退休的张少成和其他人就是在那里观看户外电影的。在远处一个没有灯光的角落里，一扇没有窗户的门后隐藏着一家小咖啡店，没有任何招牌。

It was almost empty on the night of the movie.

在电影上映的那天晚上，里面几乎没有客人。