Reuters-US yields revisit highs Asia stocks sag on hawkish Fed angst
September 26, 2023 3 min 534 words
这篇报道强调了美国国债收益率创下16年新高，以及亚洲股市下跌，这都是因为市场对美联储紧缩政策的担忧所致。这一现象反映出投资者对于全球主要央行普遍坚持高利率政策的预期，美元也因此保持强劲。亚洲太平洋地区的股票指数下滑，黄金价格下跌，而原油价格则在回落，离开10个月高点。 值得注意的是，美国10年期国债收益率上升到4.552%，创下2007年以来的最高水平。美元指数略微上涨，达到106.00，这是自去年11月30日以来首次突破106.10。亚太股市的表现也不佳，日本的日经指数下跌0.7%，韩国的韩国综合指数下滑1%，香港恒生指数下跌0.3%，而中国内地蓝筹股则开盘平稳。美国股市期货指数也下跌0.3%。 投资者对于美联储可能在明年1月再次加息的可能性感到不确定，同时也将降息的可能性推迟到夏季。分析师指出，短期内美国国债收益率可能进一步上升，这将推高美元汇率。欧洲央行和英国央行自本月中旬以来也一直强调将维持更长时间的高利率政策。相对于欧元和英镑，美国经济的表现出色，投资者越来越倾向于相信美国经济会实现软着陆，而欧元区和英国的经济增长相对停滞，这支撑了美元兑这些货币的汇率。 总的来说，这篇报道突显了全球市场对于美联储紧缩政策的忧虑，以及美国经济的相对强劲，这些因素都在影响着全球金融市场的走势。未来可能会继续看到市场对于利率和货币政策方面的波动，需要密切关注。
U.S. Treasury yields scaled a fresh 16-year peak on Tuesday, underpinning the dollar near a 10-month summit, as investors responded to the message from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks of rates staying elevated for longer.
Asia-Pacific stock benchmarks sagged along with gold, while crude oil continued to drift back from 10-month highs.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.552%, a level not seen since October 2007.
The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major developed market peers, including the euro and yen - ticked up 0.05% to 106.00, after reaching 106.10 overnight for the first time since Nov. 30.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAP00000PUS) declined 0.33%.
Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.7% and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) slid 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.3%. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) opened flat.
U.S. stock futures pointed 0.3% lower, following a 0.4% rise for the S&P 500 (.SPX) overnight.
Traders now put the odds of another quarter-point Fed hike by January at a coin toss, and have pushed the likely start of rate cuts to summer.
Westpac strategists see risks skewed toward even higher yields in the near term, pulling up the dollar as well.
"We view the recalibration of the 2024 rate cut profile, with no cuts before mid-year, as far more realistic than it has been for some time," they wrote in a client note.
"We expect 10yr yields to establish a new, higher, yield range in coming weeks," with a possible peak around 4.75%, they said. "Medium term, we would be looking to get long at some stage, but that time is not yet upon us."
The next target for the dollar index is 107.20, they said.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that inflation staying entrenched above the central bank's 2% target remains a bigger risk than tight Fed policy slowing the economy more than needed.
The Fed surprised markets last week by suggesting more tightening may be in the pipeline, and projected high rates to stay in place for longer than investors had anticipated.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also touted higher rates for longer in policy meetings since the middle of the month.
The relative outperformance of the U.S. economy - with investors increasingly betting on a soft landing while growth in the euro zone and Britain stagnate - has buoyed the dollar against those currencies.
The euro sagged 0.05% to $1.05855, approaching the overnight low of $1.0575, a level last seen in mid-March.
Sterling slipped 0.05% to $1.22065, taking it back toward Monday's six-month low of $1.21945.
The dollar also held near an 11-month peak of 148.97 yen from overnight, raising the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold was little changed at around $1,915, after slumping from above $1,947 over the past week.
Crude oil remained weak amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight.
Brent crude futures were down 11 cents at $93.18 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading 1 cent lower at $89.67.