Reuters-Futures muted on lingering concerns over elevated rates
September 25, 2023 3 min 516 words
这则报道展现了当前美国股市面临的挑战和不确定性。股指期货走势疲软，主要受到对长期高利率的担忧影响，10年期国债收益率保持高位。此外，投资者还在等待本周内的经济数据和美联储决策者的讲话。 上周，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下了自3月以来的最大周跌幅，因为基准国债收益率创下多年来的高点，投资者在消化美联储的鹰派展望修订。此外，包括道琼斯指数在内的三大基准指数也在进入9月季度的最后几天里面临今年首次季度下滑的前景。 在美联储决定保持关键利率不变，并可能将限制性政策保持更长时间之后的几天，一些政策制定者警告称，他们怀疑通胀战斗是否结束，因此可能会进一步加息。对于利率走势的不确定性，包括年底可能的升息和明年减少降息的预期，已经将10年期国债收益率推高至16年来的高点，对成长股造成了打击。 阿尔法贝塔、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta Platforms等公司在周一的盘前交易中继续承受压力，股价下跌了0.3%到0.6%之间。 投资者将关注耐用品数据、8月份的美联储首选通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）、第二季度国内生产总值以及美联储决策者，包括主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在本周内的讲话。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，交易员对11月和12月基准利率保持不变的赌注分别为74%和59%。 此外，投资者还在评估其他风险，包括高油价、10月份学生贷款还款的恢复以及如果立法者无法在9月30日之前通过预算案，政府将开始关闭。 总体来说，这篇报道反映了当前美国股市面临的复杂情况，包括对长期高利率和通胀问题的担忧，以及对经济数据和美联储政策的持续关注。这种不确定性可能会导致市场波动性增加，需要投资者谨慎应对。
U.S. stock index futures were lackluster on Monday as concerns over interest rates staying higher for longer kept the 10-year Treasury yield buoyant, while investors awaited economic data and Federal Reserve policymakers' remarks throughout the week.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) registered their largest weekly percentage drop since March on Friday, as benchmark Treasury yields hit multi-year highs while investors digested the Fed's hawkish outlook revisions.
The three benchmark indexes, including the Dow (.DJI), were also eyeing their first quarterly declines so far this year heading into the last days of the September quarter.
Just a few days after the Fed's decision to let its key rate stand and likely keep restrictive policy in place for longer than previously anticipated, some policymakers warned of further hikes as they doubt if the inflation battle is over.
Uncertainty around the trajectory for interest rates, including a potential hike by year-end and expectations for fewer cuts next year, have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a 16-year high, hurting growth stocks.
Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) remained under pressure on Monday, losing between 0.3% and 0.6% in premarket trading.
Investors will now monitor data on durable goods and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August, second-quarter GDP, and remarks by Fed policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell through the course of the week.
Traders' bets on the benchmark rate remaining unchanged in November and December stood at 74% and 59%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
"Powell's hawkish tone at last week's FOMC meeting was backed by similar comments from other Fed officials on Friday, dampening hopes of a quick end to restrictive policy even if rates have peaked," said Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at brokerage XM.
Investors also assessed other risks including high oil prices, a resumption of student loan payments in October and a government shutdown that is set to begin if lawmakers are unable to pass a budget by Sept. 30.
At 7:03 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 11 points, or 0.07%.
Media firms Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), Paramount Global (PARA.O), Netflix (NFLX.O) and Walt Disney (DIS.N) gained between 0.8% and 1.6% after Hollywood's writers union reached a preliminary labor agreement with major studios on Sunday, a deal expected to end one of two strikes that have halted most film and television production.
HP Inc (HPQ.N) dipped 2.7% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) sold nearly 4.8 million shares of the PC maker.
Footwear maker Nike (NKE.N) and sportswear retailer Foot Locker <FL.N> lost 1.3% and 2.7% after Jefferies downgraded both the stocks to "hold" from "buy".
U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firm dipped ahead of a week-long holiday in the world's second largest economy. Shares of Alibaba , PDD Holdings (PDD.O), Baidu and JD.com fell between 1.2% and 2.9%.