BBC News Top Stories-World Do Chinas recent military purges spell trouble for Xi Jinping
September 22, 2023 6 min 1249 words
中国最近的军事清洗是否预示着习近平的麻烦？这篇报道引发了许多猜测和担忧。习近平曾信任和喜爱这些官员，但现在他们似乎正在消失。最近几个月，一些高级中国官员的失踪引发了强烈的猜测，是否习近平正在进行一场清洗行动，尤其是那些与军事有关的官员。 最新一位似乎已经失宠的人是国防部长李尚福，他已经有几个星期没有在公开场合露面了。尽管一开始他的缺席并不被视为不寻常，但当一位美国高级外交官指出这一点后，人们开始加大关注。路透社的一份报道后来称，李将军，曾负责人民解放军的武器采购，正在接受有关军事装备采购的调查。 他的“失踪”发生在火箭军两名高级官员以及一名军事法院法官被撤职的几周后。现在，有传言称中国共产党中央军事委员会控制军队的一些干部也正在接受调查，尽管对于这些人员被撤职的原因几乎没有官方解释，除了“健康原因”。 这个报道中提到的主要理论是当局正在打击解放军内的腐败问题，尤其是自中国在上世纪70年代开始实行经济改革以来，腐败问题一直存在。然而，习近平在一定程度上取得了在军队内遏制腐败和恢复声誉方面的一些胜利，但研究中国共产党与军队关系的新加坡南洋理工大学研究员詹姆斯·查尔指出，“根除腐败是一项艰巨而几乎不可能的任务”，因为这需要“系统的重新设计，而我恐怕这个威权国家仍然不愿意这样做。”他补充说：“除非中国共产党政府愿意建立一个不再由自己授权的合法法律体系，否则此类清洗将不断发生。” 这篇报道提到，这些失踪行为也可能是中国政府在应对与美国的复杂关系时深化了对内政治的焦虑的体现。中国在7月实施了扩大的反间谍法，赋予当局在进行调查方面更大的权力和影响力。不久之后，中国国家安全部公开鼓励公民帮助他们打击间谍活动。 这些失踪事件引发了一系列猜测，可能对习近平的领导产生不利影响。一种观点是，这些失踪现象显示了习近平领导的不稳定迹象。观察家们指出，李将军和秦刚不仅是部长，还担任更高级别的国务委员职务，因此他们的突然下台可能被视为中国主席判断失误的表现。如果将这些失踪视为政治清洗，那么在去年成功消除潜在的竞争派系并将关键委员会安排满了自己的盟友的党代会之后，他必须如此快地实施清洗行动，这会给人留下不好的印象。 但另一种观点是，这是习近平的又一次显示实力的行动。习近平是一位曾经被清洗的中国共产党官员的儿子，以其公开打击腐败而闻名，这也是一种旨在清除他的敌人的政治清洗。自毛泽东以来，没有其他中国领导人能够与习近平的清洗规模相匹敌。多年来，他的清洗行动估计已经清洗了成千上万名干部，包括从2013年上任以来推出的“打老虎和打苍蝇”运动中的低级和高级官员。他还瞄准了武装力量，到2017年，他已经撤销了100多名高级军官职务。当时，官方通讯社新华社在一篇文章中表示，这个数字“远远超过了在创造新中国的战争中阵亡的将军人数”。 最大的问题是，这些失踪事件传递出了什么样的信号，以及它们最终会产生什么样的影响。观察家们表示，这将在军事和政府中制造一种恐惧氛围。尽管这可能是故意的结果，以确保顺从，但它也会产生士气低落的影响。 多年来，通过系统地清除失宠的人，并在关键职位上安排自己的追随者，习近平可能已经将自己围绕在一群唯唯诺
They were trusted and favoured by Xi Jinping. Now, they seem to be vanishing.
In recent months, the disappearances of several high-ranking Chinese officials have sparked intense speculation over whether Mr Xi is embarking on a purge, particularly of those linked to the military.
The latest person who appears to have fallen from grace is defence minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for some weeks now.
While his absence was not seen as unusual at first, scrutiny intensified when a top US diplomat pointed it out. A Reuters report later said General Li, who used to oversee arms procurement for the People's Liberation Army (PLA), was being investigated over military equipment purchases.
His "disappearance" comes weeks after two top officials in the Rocket Forces - the military arm that controls nuclear missiles - and a military court judge were removed.
Fresh rumours are now circulating that some cadres in the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) central military commission that controls the armed forces are also being investigated.
Little to no official explanation has been given for these removals, apart from "health reasons". In this void, speculation has blossomed.
The main theory is that authorities are cracking down on corruption in the PLA.
The military has been on heightened alert - in July it issued an unusual call-out asking the public for tip-offs on corruption in the past five years. Mr Xi also launched a fresh round of inspections, criss-crossing the country to make five visits to military bases since April, according to checks by BBC Monitoring.
Corruption has long been a problem in the military particularly since China began liberalising its economy in the 1970s, noted James Char, a research fellow at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University who studies the relationship between the CCP and the military.
Every year China spends more than a trillion yuan on the military with some going towards procurement transactions, which for national security reasons cannot be fully revealed. This lack of transparency is further compounded by China's one-party centralised system.
Unlike the kind of public scrutiny other countries' militaries are subjected to, China's armed forces are overseen exclusively by the CCP, pointed out Dr Char.
While Mr Xi has had some wins in tempering corruption within the armed forces and restoring its reputation to some extent, "rooting out corruption is a formidable if not impossible undertaking" as it would require "systemic redesigns which I'm afraid the authoritarian state remains averse to", Dr Char added.
"Until the CCP government is willing to put in place a proper legal system no longer sanctioned by itself, such purges will keep occurring."
But the disappearances could also be put down to a deepening paranoia in Chinese government as it navigates its tricky relationship with the US.
In July, an expanded counter-espionage law took effect in China, giving authorities greater power and reach in conducting investigations. Soon after, China's state security ministry publicly encouraged citizens to help them combat spy activities.
General Li's disappearance echoes that of foreign minister Qin Gang, whose removal in July also caused speculation to reach a fever pitch. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported Mr Qin was being investigated over an alleged extramarital affair that resulted in a child born in the US.
"Having an affair is not disqualifying in elite [Communist Party] circles, but having one with someone who may be suspected of having foreign intelligence ties and producing a child holding the passport of your key geopolitical rival, if not enemy, may now be," noted China analyst Bill Bishop.
There is also speculation that Mr Xi is acting under internal party pressure to clean out the stables, as China struggles with a slowing post-Covid economy and soaring youth unemployment. Under China's political system, Mr Xi is not only China's president but also the top leader of the military.
Viewed one way, the disappearances are a sign of instability in Mr Xi's leadership.
Observers have homed in on the fact that General Li and Mr Qin, who were not just ministers but also occupied more elevated positions as State Councillors, were favoured by Mr Xi. Their sudden downfalls could therefore be seen as a lack of judgement by the Chinese president.
If one sees the disappearances as a political purge, then the fact that he had to enact one so soon after consolidating power at the party congress last year, where he successfully neutralised potential rival factions and stacked key committees with his allies, is a bad look.
But the other view is that it is yet another show of strength by Mr Xi.
The son of a purged CCP official, Mr Xi is famous for his public crackdowns on corruption - which also act as political purges aimed at rooting out his enemies, say observers.
Since Mao Zedong, no other Chinese leader has come close in matching the scale of Mr Xi's crackdowns. They are estimated to have netted thousands of cadres over the years, and have targeted both low-level and top officials beginning with his "tigers and flies" campaign launched shortly after he took office in 2013.
He also targeted the armed forces and by 2017 had removed more than 100 senior officers. At that time state news agency Xinhua said in an article that the figure "far exceeded the number of generals killed in wars to create the new China".
But the biggest question is over the signal the latest disappearances sends, and their ultimate impact.
Observers say they would create a climate of fear in the military and government. Though this may be the intended outcome to ensure compliance, it would also have a demoralising effect.
Years of systematically rooting out those who have fallen out of his favour and packing top posts with his followers could mean that Mr Xi has surrounded himself with yes-men. The risk of groupthink is the "real instability" of Mr Xi's leadership, as it could adversely affect China's national security and foreign policy, noted Dr Char.
The disappearances in fact have happened during a tense period in the Taiwan Strait, with China sending more warships and military jets there in recent weeks.
Any disruption in communication over foreign policy and defence diplomacy would be "especially concerning" as "accidents could happen and managing escalation could become more challenging", said Ian Chong, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie China think tank.
Others however argue that China's military leadership is robust enough to withstand the replacement of some top officials, and point out that it has been careful to operate below the threshold of war.
Still others believe the disappearances are unlikely to have a long-term impact on Mr Xi's leadership stability. None of the cadres who have been targeted so far are part of his inner circle, pointed out Neil Thomas, an expert in Chinese elite politics with the Asia Society Policy Institute.
What most observers can agree on is that these incidents highlight the opacity of the Chinese system. "It further sharpens questions about the continuity of policy implementation and the credibility of any working-level promises or assurances," noted Dr Chong.
Ultimately, these officials' vanishing acts have fuelled a "resulting unease".
Additional reporting by BBC Monitoring.