Reuters-Analysis Lula struggles to revive Brazils soft power amid US-China tensions
September 18, 2023 4 min 822 words
这篇报道探讨了巴西总统卢拉在国际舞台上的努力，尤其是在美中紧张关系的背景下，他试图恢复巴西的软实力地位。卢拉在第三个任期内积极进行外交访问，但外交专家认为他尚未成功地恢复巴西在他前两个任期内（2003年至2010年）所拥有的软实力地位。这种软实力包括在全球南方崛起声音中的角色，同时保持独立于美国和中国。 卢拉面临着困难的挑战，因为美中之间出现了新的冷战迹象，同时乌克兰爆发了战争，巴西对亚洲市场的依赖度也在增加。中国是巴西最大的贸易伙伴，购买了其37%的农产品出口。文章中提到，卢拉在气候外交方面取得了一些成功，但他在乌克兰问题上的评论引起了美国和欧洲盟友的不满，被指责附和俄罗斯的言论。 此外，卢拉在拉美地区也未能获得实质性的支持，而且他与尼加拉瓜和委内瑞拉等被指责侵犯人权的左翼政府保持着亲近关系，这与新一代拉美进步领袖的立场相左。文章中还提到，卢拉对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗表示支持，但其他领袖批评了马杜罗的存在。 总的来说，这篇报道指出卢拉在国际舞台上所面临的挑战，尤其是在巴西在美中关系中的角色和在拉美地区的政治动荡方面。他需要更好地平衡与中国和西方国家之间的关系，以恢复巴西的软实力地位。
Since he returned to office in January, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has traveled to 21 countries and met with more than 50 heads of state, including two kings and the Pope.
The globe-trotting leftist leader, the first head of state to address the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, has prioritized foreign trips in his third term so far, as he strives to restore his country as a global player.
"Brazil is back," he repeats in speeches across five continents, in contrast with the growing isolation that came with his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro's hard-right political stance and dismal environmental record.
But diplomats and foreign policy experts say Lula is far from restoring the "soft power" status Brazil enjoyed after his first two terms, from 2003 to 2010, when the country became a voice for the rising global south while remaining independent from both the U.S. and China.
In part, that reflects the choppier waters the 77-year-old Brazilian leader now navigates, as Beijing and Washington flirt with a new Cold War while war rages in Ukraine. Brazil has also become increasingly dependent on Asian markets, which buy half of its exports. China alone, Brazil's main trading partner, buys 37% of its farm exports.
"This is a very tricky balancing act and Lula so far has not been able to find the right equilibrium," said Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the FGV think tank in Sao Paulo. "There is a perception in Brazilian society now that he is tilting towards the Sino-Russian axis more than the West."
On Wednesday, Lula is scheduled to meet U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss the climate crisis on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, focusing where the Brazilian leader has shined.
Lula has helped to restore Brazil's central role in climate diplomacy, leading a regional rainforest summit, drawing global contributions to protect the Amazon and overhauling policies to bring down deforestation sharply.
Even before he took office, Lula was greeted like a rock star last November at the U.N. climate change conference in Egypt. His polices have helped to nearly halve deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon through August, compared to the first eight months of last year, rebuilding Brazil's credibility for climate talks.
But his comments about the war in Ukraine - he has said both sides are responsible for the conflict as he sought to broker a peace deal - have angered U.S. and European allies, who have accused him of parroting Russian rhetoric.
Lula's penchant for off-the cuff remarks have occasionally made matters worse.
During a G20 meeting in India this month, he said there was "no way" Russian President Vladimir Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit in Rio de Janeiro. When reporters probed him on Brazil's commitments to enforce an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, he rowed back his comments but suggested Brazil could leave the ICC.
"There have been some bruising moments. The whole Russia -Ukraine issue was a lesson learned," said Thomas Shannon, a former U.S. ambassador to Brazil who is now senior international policy advisor at Arnold & Porter.
At last month's BRICS summit in South Africa, where the group of leading emerging economies expanded its membership as China called for, Brazil got Chinese backing for a permanent U.N. Security Council seat it wants. But that is unlikely to happen any time soon, according to Shannon.
The closer ties to Beijing could complicate Brazil's relationship with Washington, including access to key technology, Shannon added.
Closer to home, Lula has reaped little in concrete terms from Latin America's broad left-of-center alignment. The Mercosur trade bloc took nearly half a year to respond formally to a new European position on a trade deal now on the ropes.
And Lula's longstanding sympathies with leftist governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela accused of human rights abuses have him looking out of step with a new generation of progressive Latin American leaders.
Lula rolled out the red carpet for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Brasilia at a regional summit in May, helping to bring the socialist leader out of isolation. Other leaders, including Chile's leftist President Gabriel Boric, criticized Maduro's presence.
Impressions of ideological bias may hurt Brazil's image as the country returns to the international spotlight, putting Lula at odds sometimes with his Foreign Ministry, said Rubens Barbosa, a former Brazilian ambassador to London and Washington.
"Where is Brazil the defender of human rights? It's not clear what Brazil stands for today when it picks Putin and Maduro as allies," said a South American ambassador in Brasilia, who asked not to be identified.
"Brazil is rapidly wasting its soft power by trying to be an international player with an outdated agenda," he said.