Reuters-Analysis Upheavals in Xis world spread concern about Chinas diplomacy
September 16, 2023 4 min 813 words
这篇报道关于中国国防部长李尚福的失踪以及国内高层不断发生的动荡情况引发了对习近平主席执政的不确定性，同时也引起了对中国外交的担忧。这种增加的不可预测性可能会影响其他国家对世界第二大经济体领导力的信心，外交官和分析家表示。 自从上次在8月下旬被看到以来，国防部长李尚福一直失踪，据路透社报道，他正接受与军事采购有关的腐败调查。而新任外交部长秦刚在7月份突然消失，与此同时，军队精锐部队的领导层在同一月发生了突然的变动，这个部队负责监管中国的核武库。 习近平作为中国的最高统帅，集中精力处理国内事务，这个月他首次在他十年执政期间缺席了印度G20峰会，这引发了外交官的担忧。面对增加的不确定性，一些外交官和分析家呼吁对习近平政权的真实性质进行深入审视。 正因为这些变化缺乏透明度，有各种可能的解释，这加剧了围绕中国的信心危机。中国外交部截至周六未立即回应有关此事的请求。 关于国防部长李失踪和调查，中国外交部的一位女发言人在周五告诉记者她不知情。国务院和国防部未回应有关此事的请求。 自从李于今年3月被任命以来，他一直是中国扩大军事外交的公开代表，他在6月的一次重要安全会议上对美国军事行动表示担忧，并于8月访问了俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。他原本计划在10月主持北京的一次国际安全会议，并代表解放军参加11月在雅加达举行的地区国防部长会议。 由于腐败长期存在于中国的军事和国家机构中，一些分析家和外交官认为，习近平的反腐运动标志着对共产党的政治清洗。 国防部长李的动荡情况之所以不同寻常，是因为它发生得非常迅速，而且影响到了习近平亲自挑选的精英群体。这一切都如此突然而不透明。现在我们能看到的一点是，在习近平的世界中，亲近并不等于赞助。 尽管没有直接的指挥职务，但李是习近平七人组成的中央军事委员会的成员之一，也是中国五位国务委员之一，这个职位高于常任部长。一些学者认为他与张又侠将军关系密切，张又侠在委员会上位于他之上，是习近平在解放军中的最亲近的盟友之一。 考虑到华盛顿在2018年因与俄罗斯签署军火交易而对李实施制裁，他在6月新加坡的香格里拉对话安全会议上拒绝与美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀会面，而这次握手标志着他们之间最接近的互动。奥斯汀和其他美国官员急于恢复两国军方之间的高级别对话，但北京方面表示，希望华盛顿在亚太地区更加克制。 地区特使表示，深化与中国的军事外交至关重要，特别是与美国，但也与其他大国，因为中国越来越在台湾周围部署军队 - 这个宣称拥有民主政府的岛屿 - 以及在东海和南海争议地区进行部署。如果李的命运“反映了习近平日益内向的关注，那对于那些希望与中国军方进行更多开放和沟通的人来说并不是好事，”一位亚洲外交官表示。 由于解放军今年与东南亚军队的军事互动达到前所未有的水平，北京最近在政治上出现了迅速的变化，这在某种程度上引起了关于政策连续性的猜测和一些担忧，国立大学政治学家Ja Ian Chong表示：“在这个时候对军队进行改组很可能会引起关注，因为解放军在台湾和东海等地区的活动增加，以及南海的武装冲突升级，这些行动可能会引发事故、升级和危机的潜在风险。” 总的来说，这篇报道突显了中国国内政治和外交领域的不确定性，这对于国际社会来说都是一个复杂的挑战。这也提醒我们要更加关注国际关系中的不稳
The disappearance of China's defence minister, the latest in a string of upheavals in the country's top ranks, is stoking uncertainty about President Xi Jinping's rule as an internal security clampdown trumps international engagement.
The growing unpredictability could affect the confidence other countries place in the leadership of the world's second-biggest economy, diplomats and analysts say.
Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has missed meetings including with at least one foreign counterpart since he was last seen in late August, is under investigation in a corruption probe into military procurement, Reuters reported on Friday.
Newly installed Foreign Minister Qin Gang vanished with scant explanation in July, the same month as an abrupt shake-up of the military's elite Rocket Force, which oversees China's nuclear arsenal.
As Xi, China's commander-in-chief has focussed inward, he caused concern among foreign diplomats this month by missing a Group of 20 summit in India, the first time he has skipped the global leaders' gathering in his decade in power.
Faced with the growing uncertainties, some diplomats and analysts are calling for a hard look at the true nature of Xi's regime.
"Clear-eyed assessments are needed - this isn't just a question of whether China is a partner or a competitor, it is a source of economic, political and military risk," said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a scholar at the National University of Singapore.
Due to a lack of transparency surrounding the changes, various explanations were plausible "and this feeds the crisis of confidence that is brewing around China," Thompson said.
China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday.
Regarding Defence Minister Li's disappearance and investigation, a ministry spokeswoman told reporters on Friday she was not aware of the situation. The State Council and Defence Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Since his appointment in March, Li has been the public face of China’s expanding military diplomacy, expressing concern over U.S. military operations during a high-profile security conference in June and visiting Russia and Belarus in August.
He had been expected to host an international security meeting in Beijing in October and represent the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at a meeting in November of regional defence chiefs in Jakarta.
With corruption long permeating China's military and state institutions, some analysts and diplomats believe Xi's anti-graft crackdowns mark political purges across the Communist Party.
"Regardless of the reason... the sense that this could keep happening could have an impact on foreign actors' confidence in engaging with their Chinese counterparts," said Helena Legarda, lead analyst with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
The Li upheaval is unusual for its speed and its reach into Xi's hand-picked elites.
"This is all so sudden and opaque. One thing we can now see is that proximity does not equate to patronage in Xi's world," said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.
Although not in a direct command position, Li serves on Xi's seven-person Central Military Commission and is one of China's five state councillors, a cabinet position that outranks regular ministers. Some scholars believe he is close to General Zhang Youxia, who sits above him on the commission and is Xi's closest ally in the PLA.
Li, sanctioned by Washington in 2018 for an arms deal with Russia, shunned a meeting with U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at Singapore's Shangri-la Dialogue security conference in June, where a handshake marked their closest interaction.
Austin and other U.S. officials are keen to resume high-level talks between the two militaries regional tensions roil. But Beijing counters that it wants Washington to be less assertive in the Asia-Pacific.
Regional envoys say deeper Chinese military diplomacy is vital, particularly with the U.S. but also with other powers, as China increasingly deploys forces around Taiwan - the democratically governed island it claims - and across disputed parts of the East and South China Seas.
If Li's fate "reflects Xi's increasingly inward focus, it is not good for those of us who want greater openness and lines of communications with China's military," said one Asian diplomat.
As the PLA has an unprecedented level of military engagements with Southeast Asian forces this year, the recent swift changes back in Beijing "spur speculation and some concern about the continuity of policy", said political scientist Ja Ian Chong at the National University of Singapore.
"A shake-up of the military at this time is likely to draw attention, given the heightened activity of the PLA near Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as stepped-up paramilitary activity in the South China Sea, since such actions create potential risk of accidents, escalation and crises," Chong said.