The Guardian-Li Shangfu speculation grows over fate of Chinas missing defence minister
September 15, 2023 3 min 537 words
中国国防部长李尚福近三周未露面，引发了关于他命运的猜测，这是中国一名高级共产党官员从公众视线中消失的最新案例。李尚福上次露面是在8月29日，当时他在中国-非洲和平与安全论坛上发表演讲。他最后一次出国访问是在8月中旬，访问了莫斯科和明斯克，在一次安全会议的间隙会见了俄罗斯官员以及白俄罗斯总统亚历山大·卢卡申科。 根据《金融时报》的报道，美国政府认为李尚福已经受到调查。路透社报道称，李尚福上周临时取消了与越南国防官员的会议。两名越南官员告诉新闻机构，北京方面推迟了年度会议。 美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔对这一神秘事件一直持续发声，将习近平的内阁比作阿加莎·克里斯蒂的小说《然后就没有人了》。他在Twitter上表示，李尚福未出席与新加坡海军司令的预定会议，因为他被“软禁在家”。他没有提供这些说法的来源。目前，已经联系了伊曼纽尔的办公室和新加坡海军，请他们发表评论。 李尚福的失踪发生在今年7月外交部长秦刚被突然撤职之后，秦刚也在失踪数周后被撤职，至今没有进一步的信息或迹象。今年8月初，习近平还替换了火箭军的两名高级将领，对军队领导层进行了重大改组。前火箭军司令李玉超在此前数周内未曾公开露面，对于他的撤职没有任何解释。 自2013年上台以来，习近平进行了广泛而严厉的反腐败运动，分析人士称这也瞄准了政治对手。人民解放军内部也受到了反腐败的特别打击。但是，在习近平统治的十多年里，中国领导层大部分都是习近平的盟友。 “在习掌管人民解放军第11年，仍然存在如此高层次的腐败问题，对于火箭军官员和李尚福来说，习近平不能怪罪前任，”中国分析师比尔·毕晓普在周五写道。 李尚福于2023年3月被任命为国防部长，此前在中央军事委员会中担任最高级别的成员数月之后。2018年，作为军队装备发展部的主任，他因人民解放军购买俄罗斯军事装备而受到了美国的制裁。 这篇报道引发了许多猜测，同时也凸显了中国政治体制中的不透明性和权力集中。习近平的反腐败运动持续影响着中国的政治和军事领导层，而外界对高级官员失踪的解释通常只是猜测。这种情况对国内外关于中国政治和军事动态的理解产生了挑战，也引发了更广泛的关注。需要进一步的信息和透明度来解释这些高级官员的失踪和政治动向。
China’s defence minister has not been seen in almost three weeks with speculation he is under investigation, the latest case of a senior Communist party official to disappear from public view.
General Li Shangfu was last seen on 29 August when he gave a speech to the China-Africa peace and security forum. His last overseas trip was to Moscow and Minsk in mid-August, where he met Russian officials on the sidelines of a security conference, and with Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko.
The US government believes Li has been put under investigation, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing senior officials. Reuters reported Li cancelled a meeting with Vietnamese defence officials at the last minute last week. Two Vietnamese officials told the news agency that Beijing had postponed the annual meeting.
Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, has been particularly vocal about the mystery, likening Xi’s cabinet to Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None.
On Friday he posted on X/Twitter claiming Li hadn’t appeared at a scheduled meeting with the Singaporean chief of navy, because he was “placed under house arrest”. He did not provide a source for the claims.
Emanuel’s office and the Singaporean navy have been contacted for comment.
Li’s disappearance follows the surprise removal of foreign minister Qin Gang from his post in July, also after a weeks-long disappearance. There has been no further information or sign of him since.
Xi also replaced two top generals of the Rocket Force in early August, in a major shake-up of the military wing’s leadership. Former commander Li Yuchao had not been seen in public for weeks prior, and there was no explanation of his removal.
Since coming to power in 2013, Xi has run an extensive and unforgiving anti-corruption drive which analysts say also targeted political opponents. There has been a particular crackdown on corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
But more than a decade into his rule, and after the greatest consolidation of power around a Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, senior ranks are now largely all Xi’s allies.
“It would be remarkable that in year 11 of Xi being in charge of the PLA there is still such high-level corruption, and for the Rocket Force officers and Li Shangfu, Xi can not blame his predecessors,” wrote China analyst Bill Bishop on Friday.
Li was appointed defence minister in March 2023, after a few months as the highest-ranked member of the central military commission, which oversees the armed forces. In 2018, as director of the military’s equipment development department he was sanctioned by the US over the PLA’s purchase of Russian military equipment.
Li’s biography and title remained online at the time of publication. Following Qin’s removal references to him as foreign minister were quickly scrubbed from Chinese internet sites, although some were later restored.
In China’s political system ministers are not the highest ranking in a particular portfolio. As defence minister, Li reports to two vice-chairmen in the central military commission, who then report to Xi. However he is also one of five state councillors, which ranks higher than a regular minister. Qin remains a state councillor.