纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英全球南方领头羊之争印度向中国发起挑战
September 13, 2023 7 min 1331 words
不用争了，肯定是三哥呀，三哥你最厉害，三哥是宇宙中心
For more than a decade, China has courted developing countries frustrated with the West. Beijing’s rise from poverty was a source of inspiration. And as it challenged the postwar order, especially with its global focus on development through trade, loans and infrastructure projects, it sent billions of much-needed dollars to poor nations.
在过去十多年里，中国一直在拉拢对西方不满的发展中国家。北京得以从贫困中崛起，成为一种励志的源泉。中国在挑战战后秩序——特别是它在全球通过贸易、贷款和基础设施项目来实现发展——的过程中，向贫穷国家提供了它们急需的大量资金。
But now, China is facing competition from another Asian giant in the contest to lead what has come to be called the “global south.” A newly confident India is presenting itself as a different kind of leader for developing countries — one that is big, important and better positioned than China in an increasingly polarized world to push the West to alter its ways.
但如今，在所谓“全球南方”的领头羊之争上，中国正面临着另一个亚洲大国的竞争。重获自信的印度正在将自身塑造为发展中国家的另一派领导者：体量庞大、地位重要、且在日益极化的世界中比中国更能推动西方做出改变。
Exhibit A: the unexpected consensus India managed at the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi over the weekend.
最突出的例子就是，印度让本周末在新德里举行的20国集团峰会达成了出乎意料的共识。
With help from other developing nations, India persuaded the United States and Europe to soften a statement on the Russian invasion of Ukraine so the forum could focus on the concerns of poorer countries, including global debt and climate financing. India also presided over the most tangible result so far of its intensifying campaign to champion the global south: the admission of the African Union to the G20, putting it on par with the European Union.
在其它发展中国家的帮助下，印度说服美国和欧洲软化了关于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的声明，以便让论坛将重点放在较贫穷国家的关切上，比如全球债务和气候融资。印度还主导达成了一项在其加强支持全球南方国家的倡议中迄今为止最为切实的成果：让非洲联盟成为G20成员，获得与欧盟相同的组织地位。
“There is a structural shift happening in the global order,” said Kishore Mahbubani, a former ambassador for Singapore and author of “Has China Won?” “The power of the West is declining, and the weight and power of the global south — the world outside the West — is increasing.”
“全球秩序正在发生结构性转变，”前新加坡大使、《中国赢了吗？》(Has China Won?)一书的作者马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)表示。“西方的力量正在衰落，而全球南方——也就是西方以外的世界——的影响力和实力都在增强。”
Only one country can be a bridge between “the West and the rest,” Mr. Mahbubani added, “and that’s India.”
马凯硕补充道，只有一个国家可以成为“西方与其他国家”之间的桥梁，“那就是印度”。
At a time when a new Cold War of sorts between the United States and China seems to frame every global discussion, India’s pitch has clear appeal.
在美中新“冷战”似乎主导了所有全球议题之际，印度的提议显然非常具有吸引力。
Neither the United States nor China is especially beloved among developing nations. The United States is criticized for focusing more on military might than economic assistance. The signature piece of China’s outreach — its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative — has fueled a backlash as Beijing has resisted renegotiating crushing debt that has left many countries facing the risk of default.
发展中国家对美中两国都不是特别拥戴。美国因更注重军事力量而非经济援助而受到批评。象征中国影响力的标志性举措“一带一路”基础设施倡议则引发了强烈反对，因为中方拒绝就沉重的债务问题进行重新协商，导致许多国家面临违约风险。
What a rising India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is offering instead is less domineering and less tied to money or defense — effusively supportive rhetoric, an ear for shared grievances and a promise to diversify the institutions that shape global policy.
但在莫迪总理领导下崛起的印度提出的主张没那么盛气凌人，也更少与利益或防务直接挂钩，而是热情洋溢的支持主张，倾听各国共同的不满，并承诺致力于全球政策制定机构的多元化。
India still has a long way to go to be called a great power. Even by its own optimistic estimates, it will not become a developed nation for decades. Its diplomatic ranks remain smaller than those of nations a fraction of its size. And the current government’s Hindu nationalist agenda has contributed to an environment of persistent instability.
But with India’s economy growing rapidly and the West seeking allies to counter China, New Delhi finds itself in a consequential position. When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, decided to skip the G20 last week, some saw it as evidence that Beijing was no longer interested in shaping the global order so much as replacing it. With that, India had an opening.
但随着印度经济快速增长，加之西方寻求盟友制衡中国，印度的地位也具备了关键意义。中国领导人习近平上周决定不参加G20峰会后，一些人认为，这表明比起塑造全球秩序，中国更想做的是将其颠覆。在此种形势下，印度就得到了机会。
At the summit, Mr. Modi embodied the role of bridge builder and friend. He held President Biden’s hand as he welcomed him to the event. To make clear that India’s relations with America are close and getting closer — a crucial condition for building the sway to help developing nations — Mr. Modi attended several meetings with Mr. Biden ahead of the event and on its sidelines.
莫迪在峰会上扮演了调停和亲善的角色。他握着拜登总统的手，欢迎他来参加峰会。为了表明印美关系的密切和愈发密切——这是建立影响力来帮助发展中国家的关键条件——莫迪在峰会前和峰会间隙与拜登进行了多次会晤。
On the first day of the gathering, Mr. Modi announced the admission of the African Union with a bang of the gavel. He stood from his seat to give a long, strong hug to Azali Assoumani, the union’s chairman and the president of Comoros.
在峰会首日，随着木槌敲响，莫迪宣布非洲联盟加入G20。他从座位上起身，给了非洲联盟主席、科摩罗总统阿扎利·阿苏马尼一个长久而有力的拥抱。
These images of personal warmth offered a striking contrast with the usual distant stiffness of Mr. Xi. But New Delhi has been careful not to confront its powerful neighbor directly — Indian officials praised China’s support for the G20’s joint declaration.
莫迪展示热忱的样子与习近平一贯的疏远冷漠形成了鲜明对比。但印度一直小心翼翼地避免直接对抗中国这个强大的邻国，印度官员依然赞美了中国对G20联合声明的支持。
Rather, India has focused on its own forms of influence. As its economy grows, it has expanded trade with Africa and Latin America and built on its connections, through a large, successful diaspora, to the Middle East and other regions.
相反，印度专注于以自己的方式投射影响力。随着经济增长，印度扩大了与非洲和拉丁美洲的贸易，并凭借为数众多事业有成的侨民与中东及其他地区建立了联系。
What it lacks in resources it has tried to gain in good will by sharing what it has in times of need: from sending shipments of Covid vaccines to offering to help other countries build national digital platforms to convening a wide range of voices as the president of the G20.
从运送新冠疫苗到主动帮助别国建立国家级数字化平台，再到作为G20集团主席国广聚世界声音，印度试图通过危难之时的分享来达成亲善的关系，弥补资源的不足。
Early this year, India brought together the leaders of more than 100 developing and poorer nations for what it called the Voice of Global South Summit, a virtual event.
今年早些时候，印度召集了100多个发展中和较贫穷国家的领导人，举行了所谓的“全球南方之声”线上峰会。
“Three-fourths of humanity lives in our countries. We should also have equivalent voice,” Mr. Modi told the leaders. “As the eight-decade-old model of global governance slowly changes, we should try to shape the emerging order.”
“四分之三的人类生活在我们这些国家。我们也应该得到同等的发言权，”莫迪告诉与会领导人。“随着已有80年历史的全球治理模式慢慢改变，我们应该尽力参与新秩序的塑造。”
The gathering was billed as a brainstorming session. But there was a message for China, too — it was not invited, nor were other nations of the G20.
这场被称为一次头脑风暴的峰会也给中国发出了一个信息——和G20集团的其他国家一样，中国并没有收到邀请。
Beijing may not be especially concerned.
中国可能并没有特别担心。
“China definitely regards India as a major rival, particularly in Asia due to New Delhi’s increasingly close ties with the U.S., but not in terms of global south leadership,” said Eric Olander, the editor of the website China Global South Project. “China is very confident that India can’t compete with Beijing in the key areas that matter most to developing countries, namely development finance, infrastructure and trade.”
“中国必然将印度视为主要竞争对手，特别是在亚洲，因为印度与美国的关系日益密切。但在全球南方领导地位的问题上则不然，”中南项目网站的主编欧瑞克(Eric Olander)表示。“中国深信在发展中国家最看重的关键领域——即发展融资、基础设施和贸易，印度是没办法与北京竞争的。”
That disparity was clear during the recent summit of the BRICS nations, which include Brazil, Russia and South Africa in addition to India and China. Even after Mr. Modi had spent a year promoting India as the voice of the global south, it was Mr. Xi who received the royal treatment.
这种差距在最近的金砖集团峰会上体现得淋漓尽致，除了印度和中国之外，该集团成员还包括巴西、俄罗斯和南非。即便莫迪过去一年都在大力宣扬印度作为全球南方代言人的地位，但享受最尊贵待遇的人依然是习近平。
In one video of a side meeting, the leaders, including Mr. Modi, all waited as Mr. Xi arrived to shake hands. They remained standing until after Mr. Xi had settled into a much larger seat than theirs — an entire sofa.
在一场小型会议的视频片段中，包括莫迪在内的领导人都要等待习近平的握手接见。在习近平落座之前，他们都得站着，而习近平的座位也比他们大得多，一个人就占了整张沙发。
“Money talks,” said Ziyanda Stuurman, a senior analyst with the Eurasia Group’s Africa Team. “Whether it’s India or the U.S. or Europe, if they are not able to match or be as serious as China with rolling out funding, China will still enjoy this place of leadership.”
“有钱能使鬼推磨，”欧亚集团非洲团队的高级分析师齐扬达·斯图曼表示。“无论是印度还是欧美，如果在投资额度或对待投资的严肃态度上都赶不上中国，那中国就仍将享有这样的领导地位。”
Beijing does not intend to cede this position, and remains wary of New Delhi’s tilt toward the West as a means to contain China’s rise.
中国并不打算将这种地位拱手相让，也仍将对印度向西方靠拢以遏制中国崛起保持警惕。
“The U.S.-led Western countries want to use India to divide the global south and weaken China’s position among developing countries,” read a recent editorial in the Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.
中共喉舌媒体《环球时报》近日发表社评称，“以美国为首的西方国家想利用印度来分裂全球南方，削弱中国在发展中国家的地位。”
But after a year at the helm of the G20, India is relishing a moment of national momentum on the international stage while trying to maintain strong global south relations. Indian officials made clear that their success at the summit was shared with the other developing nations that rallied around India, especially Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.
但在担任G20主席国的一年时间里，印度很享受在国际舞台上展示国家影响力，并试图维持全球南方紧密关系的机会。印度官员明确表示，他们在峰会上与团结在印度周围的其它发展中国家一荣俱荣，特别是巴西、南非和印度尼西亚。
In a few months, Mr. Modi and his party face another election. On Sunday, after most world leaders had left, he strolled through the summit’s media center for a victory lap.
几个月后，莫迪和他的政党也将投身另一场选举。周日，大多数世界领导人已经离开，莫迪走进峰会的媒体中心展现自己胜利者的身份。
He did not take questions from the gaggle of reporters who were not allowed to leave the venue until he did. He simply smiled and waved for TV crews and for selfies with young cafeteria workers saying “Wow.”
在他离开会场之前，媒体中心的大批记者都不能离开。而他没有接受提问，只是笑呵呵地向电视摄制组挥了挥手，还跟连声惊呼的年轻食堂员工自拍留影。