纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英习近平将缺席G20峰会这意味着什么

China indicated on Monday that its top leader, Xi Jinping, would skip the Group of 20 summit meeting in New Delhi this weekend, dealing a blow to India, the event’s host nation, and raising questions about Mr. Xi’s profile as a global statesman.

中国在周一表示，最高领导人习近平不会出席本周末在新德里举行的20国集团首脑会议，这对此次活动的东道主印度是一个打击，同时也令人对习近平作为世界政治家的形象产生疑问。

China will send the premier, Li Qiang, to the event, said Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, at a news briefing. Ms. Mao did not answer questions about Mr. Xi and declined to explain the reason for the decision, but there is no doubt that it is unusual. Mr. Xi has never missed a G20 summit, which brings together 19 countries and the European Union, since taking power in 2012.

中国外交部发言人毛宁在新闻发布会上说，中国将派总理李强出席。她没有回答有关习的提问，也拒绝就这一决定的原因给出解释，但这无疑是一个不寻常的举动。自2012年掌权以来，习近平从未缺席过这个有19个国家和欧盟参加的峰会。

The announcement comes amid growing friction between China and several members of the G20 — namely the United States and India — over Beijing’s continued support for Russia (in the case of Washington) and its increasingly aggressive territorial claims around Asia (in the case of India).

在这一决定宣布之时，中国与20国集团的几个成员国之间的关系正日趋紧张，具体来说就是美国和印度，前者是因为北京对俄罗斯的持续支持，后者则是由于中国在亚洲越来越强势的领土主张。

The opacity of Chinese politics and Beijing’s reticence make it difficult to know why Mr. Xi appears to have chosen not to attend the summit. Analysts say it could reflect Mr. Xi’s preference for groupings in which China is more dominant, such as the recently concluded BRICS summit of emerging nations in Johannesburg. Given that Mr. Xi would be missing an opportunity to meet with President Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit, the move might suggest that Mr. Xi wants to ease tensions with the United States on his own terms.

中国政治的不透明和北京的沉默让人很难理解习近平为什么选择不参加峰会。分析人士说，这可能表明习更喜欢那些让中国有更多话语权的小集团，比如近日刚刚在约翰内斯堡闭幕的金砖国家峰会，与会的都是新兴国家。考虑到这意味着习近平失去了在20国峰会期间与拜登总统会面的机会，此举可能表明，习希望以自己的方式来缓解与美国的紧张关系。

The G20 event also comes as China’s economy is facing one of its toughest periods in years over an escalating housing crisis that could prove to be one of the biggest challenges to Mr. Xi’s rule. Mr. Xi’s absence could point to a need to be in Beijing to deal with urgent economic problems.

此外，在这场峰会举办之时，由于不断恶化的房地产危机，中国经济正面临多年来最艰难的时刻，可能将是对习近平统治构成的最严峻挑战之一。习的缺席可能是因为他需要待在北京应对紧迫的经济问题。

Mr. Xi’s tight grip on power means other countries’ leaders will be unsure if Mr. Li has the authority to follow through on any decisions made at the summit.

习对权力的紧握也意味着其他国家的领导人会不确定，假如峰会达成了任何决策，李强是否有权力去推进。

“The fact there is such speculation every time there is a ‘no show’ is indicative of the uncertainty that not only the opacity creates but also the fact that everything seems dependent on Xi, given his centralization of authority,” said Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

“每次‘缺席’都会有这样的猜测，不仅说明了不透明带来的不确定性，还让人们看到一切似乎都取决于习，毕竟权力集中在他身上，”新加坡国立大学政治学副教授庄嘉颖说。

“If leadership externally and, for that matter, internally rides so much on one individual, that makes for a fairly brittle situation, no matter how powerful that individual,” he added.

“如果领导层从外面看——进而也关系到内部——如此依赖一个人，那就会形成一个相当脆弱的局面，无论那个人多么强大，”他还说。

With a meeting in New Delhi seemingly off the table, Mr. Biden’s next chance to meet with Mr. Xi may not be until November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. There’s no guarantee that Mr. Xi will attend that meeting either, however, with more indications that China was playing hard to get.

既然在新德里的会面已经不可能，拜登下一次与习见面的机会可能要等到11月在旧金山的亚太经济合作组织峰会。况且，鉴于越来越多迹象表明中国在摆出没兴趣打交道的样子，因此不能保证习届时会参加。

In a post published Monday on its WeChat account, China’s Ministry of State Security said the United States needed to “show sufficient sincerity” to justify Mr. Xi’s attendance in San Francisco.

中国国家安全部微信公众号周一发布的一篇文章写道，美国需要“拿出足够的诚意”，以证明习有必要出席旧金山的会议。

Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said the WeChat post was highly unusual. The ministry, he said, did not have the “authority” to weigh in on China-U.S. relations in such a way because it was “not responsible for diplomacy.”

人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘说，这篇微信文章是极不寻常的。他说国安部“不负责外交”，因此没“权力”就中美关系发表看法。

Still, the post reflected the deep skepticism in China about U.S. intentions despite a series of high-level talks in Beijing during the past three months between senior American and Chinese officials. China says the United States can’t claim to want to stabilize relations when it continues to antagonize Beijing by widening trade restrictions, strengthening security alliances with Asian partners and offering support to Taiwan, a self-governed island claimed by China.

然而此文依然反映出，尽管过去三个月里两国高级官员在北京进行了高级别会晤，中国对美国的意图仍然抱有很深的怀疑。中国说，美国不能一边声称要稳定关系，一边继续与北京作对，扩大贸易限制，加强与亚洲合作伙伴的安全联盟，向中国声称拥有的自治岛屿台湾提供支持。

In India, Mr. Xi’s absence from the G20 summit will be widely viewed as a snub to that country’s leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is counting on the summit to burnish his own credentials as a global leader.

在印度，习在20国集团峰会上的缺席被普遍视为对该国领导人纳伦德拉·莫迪的冷落，莫迪期待通过峰会来营造自己作为全球领导人的形象。

Tensions have run high between Beijing and New Delhi, which has drawn closer to the West through a security grouping called the Quad that includes the United States, Australia and Japan.

北京和新德里的关系一直紧张，西方通过一个名为四方安全对话的组织拉近了与后者的距离，该组织还包括美国、澳大利亚和日本。

China and India are also deeply at odds over their shared border, a dispute that was inflamed last week when China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a map that asserted jurisdiction over the entire northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region, a high-altitude plateau claimed by both countries. The Global Times, a nationalist Communist Party newspaper in China, posted about the map on the social media site X, formerly known as Twitter.

中印还在边境问题上存在深刻分歧，双方的冲突在上周再度升温，因为中国的自然资源部发布了一张地图，将印度东北部的整个阿鲁纳恰尔邦和阿克赛钦地区划为本国疆域，后者是一片两国都声称拥有主权的高原。中共民族主义报纸《环球时报》在原名Twitter的社交媒体网站X上发表了该地图的消息。

India said it responded by lodging a strong protest with China. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the foreign minister, called the Chinese map “absurd” and criticized Beijing for what he called its “old habit” of releasing maps that rename disputed territories in an attempt to assert China’s claims. Other nations including Malaysia and the Philippines have raised similar complaints. (China has described the map as routine and urged countries not to “over-interpret the issue.”)

印方表示已经向中方提出强烈抗议。印度外交部长苏杰生称中国的这张地图“荒诞不经”，并且批评中国发布使用别的名称称呼争议领土的地图、以强调其主张的行为，他称之为“老毛病”。包括马来西亚和菲律宾在内的其他国家也表达了类似的不满。（中国称发布地图是例行性做法，呼吁各方不要“过度解读”。）

“Those maps essentially are political statements,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “Certain Chinese media chose to amplify it, and they would not be doing that without official sanction.”

“这些地图本质上就是政治宣言，”新加坡拉惹勒南国际关系学院高级研究员高瑞连说。“某些中国媒体在宣传，没有官方的点头他们是不会这么做的。”

A G20 without Mr. Xi might not be all that bad for Mr. Modi, some Indian analysts said. The Indian leader has been criticized in the past by opposition parties for trying to cultivate a relationship with Mr. Xi only for it to backfire following the rise in border clashes.

一些印度分析人士说，没有习的20国集团对莫迪也不见得就很糟糕。印度的反对党此前曾批评莫迪试图培养与习近平的关系，结果在边境冲突暴发后取得了适得其反的效果。

Mr. Xi’s “arrival would have meant normalizing relations without making any sincere effort to resolve the border crises,” said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research.

习“的到来将意味着，在没有采取任何有诚意的措施去解决边境危机的情况下实现关系正常化”，位于新德里的政策研究中心的战略研究教授布拉玛·切拉尼说。

The dispute over the map raises the question of what, if any, progress was made earlier this month when Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. The countries said they had discussed the border dispute.

地图引起的争议令人怀疑，本月习近平和莫迪在金砖国家峰会期间的会面究竟取得了什么进展——如果有进展的话。两国表示就边境争议展开了商讨。

That summit was viewed as a major victory for Mr. Xi when the grouping, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, agreed to invite six new members after Beijing had lobbied heavily for an expansion.

那场峰会被视为习近平的一场重大胜利，经过北京的努力游说，该集团的成员国巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非同意进行扩张，邀请六个新成员加入。

In recent months, Mr. Xi has traveled only to countries where he has been assured a friendly welcome, like Saudi Arabia, Russia and, most recently, South Africa.

近几个月来，习近平只去了那些能保证友好相待的国家，比如沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯，还有最近的南非。