「中英」电力短缺问题暴露中国战略弱点

BEIJING — A bread company can’t get all the power it needs for its bakeries. A chemicals supplier for some of the world’s biggest paint producers announced production cuts. A port city changed electricity rationing rules for manufacturers four times in a single day.

北京——一家面包制造商无法得到其旗下面包厂所需的全部电力。一家为世界上一些最大的涂料生产商提供化学原料的供应商宣布减产。一座港口城市的制造商在一天里四次改变电力配给规则。

China’s electricity shortage is rippling across factories and industries, testing the nation’s status as the world’s capital for reliable manufacturing. The shortage prompted the authorities to announce on Wednesday a national rush to mine and burn more coal, despite their previous pledges to curb emissions that cause climate change.

中国的电力短缺正在波及全国各地的工厂和行业，考验着中国作为世界可靠的制造业中心的地位。煤炭短缺促使当局在周三宣布，增加全国范围内的煤炭生产和供应，尽管官员此前承诺要遏制导致气候变化的碳排放。

Mines that were closed without authorization have been ordered to reopen. Coal mines and coal-fired power plants that were shut for repairs are also to be reopened. Tax incentives are being drafted for coal-fired power plants. Regulators have ordered Chinese banks to provide plenty of loans to the coal sector. Local governments have been warned to be more cautious about limits on energy use that had been imposed partly in response to climate change concerns.

未经批准关停的煤矿被命令重新开工。停产维修的煤矿和燃煤发电厂也将恢复运行。针对燃煤发电厂的税收优惠政策正在起草中。监管机构下令中国各银行向煤炭行业提供大笔贷款。地方政府已接到要更谨慎地限制能源使用的警告，这种限制在一定程度上是为应对气候变化采取的措施。

“We will make every effort to increase coal production and supply,” Zhao Chenxin, the secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said at a news briefing on Wednesday in Beijing.

“全力推动煤炭增产增供，”中国最高经济规划机构国家发展和改革委员会的秘书长赵辰昕周三在北京的新闻发布会上说。

Depending on how much coal can be mined and burned soon, China’s electricity shortage could call into question whether Beijing can deliver in the coming months the strong economic growth that China’s people have come to expect.

中国的电力短缺可能会使人怀疑，北京能否在未来几个月实现中国人民所期望的经济强劲增长。这要看中国近期能开采出和燃烧掉多少煤炭。

The electricity crunch has also laid bare one of China’s strategic weaknesses: It is a voracious, and increasingly hungry, energy hog. China has also emerged as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases by a wide margin, thanks mainly to its already heavy dependence on coal.

电力短缺也暴露了中国的一个战略弱点：中国对能源有极大的需求，而且这种需求越来越大。中国已成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国，主要就是因为对煤炭的严重依赖。

The world’s No. 2 economy relies on energy-intensive industries like steel, cement and chemicals to power growth. While many of its newer factories are more efficient than their counterparts in the United States, years of government price controls for electricity lulled other industries and most homeowners into putting off improvements.

作为世界第二大经济体，中国依赖钢铁、水泥和化工等能高能耗行业为经济增长提供动力。虽然中国许多新建工厂的能效高于美国同类企业，但多年来政府对电力价格的控制，让其他行业和大多数房产拥有者推迟了提高能效的计划。

As the winter heating season arrives, which will require China to dig up and burn still more coal, Beijing must confront whether to allow factories to continue running full-tilt producing industrial materials for global supply chains.

冬季供暖季节的到来，要求中国开采和燃烧更多的煤，中国政府将面临是否允许工厂继续全速运转，为全球供应链生产工业原料的问题。

“They have to sacrifice something to make sure households will have heat and power,” said Chen Long, a co-founder and partner of Plenum, a Beijing economics and politics research firm. “They have to cut energy-intensive industries.”

“他们必须做出一些牺牲，确保家庭供暖、供电，”北京经济和政治研究公司Plenum的联合创始人和合伙人陈龙说。“他们必须限制能源密集型产业。”

Power rationing appears to have eased somewhat since late last month, when widespread blackouts and power cuts caught factories by surprise. But the winter heating season officially begins on Friday in the country’s northeast and continues into north-central China next month.

自从上月底的大范围停电限电让工厂措手不及以来，电力配给问题似乎有所缓解。但是，中国东北地区将在本周五正式进入冬季供暖季节，华北和中部地区也将于下个月开始供暖。

China faces tough choices. It burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and is the No. 2 consumer of oil after the United States.

中国面临艰难的选择。该国燃烧的煤比世界其他地方的总和还要多，并且是仅次于美国的第二大石油消费国。

China has been rapidly expanding its use of natural gas as well as solar panels, wind turbines and hydroelectric dams. Yet China still does not have enough energy to meet demand. Even shifting to green energy could take significant power — the country’s tight electricity supplies have raised its costs for making solar panels.

中国一直在迅速扩大对天然气以及太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机和水电大坝的使用。然而，中国仍然没有足够的能源来满足需求。即使转向绿色能源也可能需要大量电力——该国电力供应紧张已使制造太阳能电池板的成本增加。

Sustained tight supplies could force China to remake its economy, much as the high oil prices of the 1970s forced North American and European nations to change. Those countries developed more efficient cars, embraced other fuels, found plentiful new supplies and shifted manufacturing overseas, much of it to China. But the process was long, painful and costly.

持续的供应紧张可能会迫使中国重塑经济，就像上世纪70年代的高油价迫使北美和欧洲国家做出改变一样。这些国家研发了更高效的汽车，采用了其他燃料，找到了充足的新供应，并将制造业转移到海外，其中大部分转移到了中国。但这个过程漫长、痛苦且代价高昂。

For now, China is revving up coal consumption less than a month before world leaders gather in Glasgow, Scotland, to discuss confronting climate change.

目前，中国正在加快煤炭消费，而距离世界领导人齐聚苏格兰格拉斯哥讨论气候变化的应对问题还有不到一个月的时间。

Board members of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said on Wednesday that electricity shortages had worsened this week in some cities, and eased in others. They predicted electricity problems would last until March.

中国欧盟商会(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)董事会成员周三表示，本周一些城市的电力短缺情况恶化，而另一些城市的电力短缺情况有所缓解。他们预测电力问题将持续到3月。

Until enough power comes online, China’s factories risk unexpected and destabilizing stoppages. Factories in China consume twice as much electricity as the rest of the country’s economy. China’s factories tend to require 10 to 30 percent more energy than counterparts in the West, said Ma Jun, the director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a Beijing research and advocacy group.

在有足够的电力供应之前，中国的工厂可能会面临意外且影响稳定的停工风险。中国的工厂消耗的电力是其他经济部门的两倍。北京的研究和倡导组织公共与环境事务研究所所长马军表示，中国工厂所需的能源往往比西方工厂多10%至30%。

China has made more gains in energy efficiency in the past two decades than any other country, said Brian Motherway, the head of energy efficiency at the International Energy Agency in Paris. But because China started the century with an inefficient industrial sector, it still has not caught up with the West, he said.

位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)能源效率主管布赖恩·马瑟威(Brian Motherway)表示，过去20年，中国在能源效率方面取得的进步比任何国家都多。但他表示，由于中国的工业部门在进入本世纪的时候效率低下，至今未能赶上西方。

Mr. Zhao said that even with Wednesday’s push for more coal production, China would continue efforts to become more energy-efficient. He pointed out that the United States has also been burning more coal this year as the American economy has begun to rebound from the pandemic.

赵辰昕表示，即使周三推动了更多煤炭生产，中国仍将继续努力提高能源效率。他指出，随着美国经济开始从疫情中回弹，它今年也在燃烧更多的煤炭。

The impact of the power shortages has been mixed. Car assembly plants in northeastern China had been given permission to keep running, but tire factories nearly stopped running. Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology, which makes chemicals for the world’s paint manufacturers, disclosed that electricity cuts had hurt production.

电力短缺的影响程度大小不一。中国东北的汽车组装厂获准继续运营，但轮胎厂几乎停产。为全球涂料制造商生产化学品的无锡洪汇新材料科技公司透露，停电影响了生产。

Others disclosing difficulties include Toly Bread, with its national chain of bakeries, and Fujian Haiyuan Composites Technology, a manufacturer of battery cases for China’s fast-growing electric car industry.

其他透露遇到困难的公司包括拥有全国连锁面包店的桃李面包，以及为中国快速增长的电动汽车行业生产电池盒外覆盖件的福建海源复合材科技有限公司。

Fred Jacobs, a 57-year-old software marketer in Seattle, ordered two high-performance, solid-state drives in late summer from China, only to be offered a refund a week ago because a lack of electricity would cause factory delays.

西雅图57岁的软件营销人员弗莱德·雅各布(Fred Jacobs)在夏末从中国订购了两个高性能固态硬盘，但卖家在一周前提出退款，因为电力短缺会导致工厂延误。

“I was flabbergasted, because I’ve heard about shipping issues with China but not power issues or infrastructure issues with Chinese suppliers,” he said. “Now the risk is much higher, and I will buy from U.S. vendors even if I have to pay more.”

“我大吃一惊，因为我听说过中国运输方面的问题，但没有听说中国供应商会有电力问题或基础设施问题，”他说。“现在风险要高得多，就算要付更多钱，我也会从美国供应商那里购买。”

The power outages have taken a human toll, which could worsen if homes lose power during winter. At least 23 workers were hospitalized in northeast China late last month with carbon monoxide poisoning when the power failed at a large chemicals factory.

停电还危及了生命安全，如果房屋在冬季断电，情况可能会更糟。上月底，中国东北一家大型化工厂停电，至少有23名工人因一氧化碳中毒住院。

The government has been taking steps to improve efficiency, like allowing utilities to raise prices for industrial and commercial users as much as 20 percent so that they can buy more coal.

政府一直在采取措施提高效率，例如允许电企将工业和商业用电的价格提高20%，以便他们可以购买更多的煤炭。

China practically stopped new coal investments in 2016 as concerns developed about the industry’s sustainability. Anticorruption officials have launched investigations focused on some important coal fields in the Inner Mongolia region, discouraging investment further.

随着对煤炭行业可持续性的担忧加剧，中国在2016年基本上停止了新的煤炭投资。纪检部门对内蒙古一些重要煤田展开调查，进一步抑制了投资。

In late summer, many mines were closed for safety reviews. Flooding this autumn in Shanxi Province, China’s biggest hub for coal mining, has forced the closing of at least a tenth of the province’s mines.

夏末，许多煤矿因安全检查关闭。中国最大的煤炭开采中心山西省今年秋天发生洪水，迫使该省至少十分之一的煤矿关闭。

With demand rising post-pandemic, prices jumped. Power plants found themselves losing money with every ton of coal they burned, so they ran at around three-fifths capacity.

疫情过后，随着需求上升，煤炭价格上涨。发电厂发现燃烧煤炭会亏本，因此它们将产能降到大约五分之三。

Chinese officials hope to replace much coal-fired power with solar power. But China’s manufacturing processes for solar panels require enormous amounts of electricity, much of it from coal.

中国官员希望用太阳能替代大量燃煤发电。但中国的太阳能电池板制造过程需要大量电力，其中大部分来自煤炭。

Polysilicon, the main raw material for solar panels, has more than tripled in price recently, with most of the increase in the past couple weeks, said Ocean Yuan, the president of Grape Solar, a solar panel distributor in Eugene, Ore.

葡萄太阳能(Grape Solar)是一家位于俄勒冈州尤金市的太阳能电池板经销商，其总裁袁海洋表示，多晶硅是太阳能电池板的主要原材料，最近价格上涨了两倍多，其中大部分涨幅发生在过去几周。

In China, the cost to build large solar panel farms has jumped about 25 percent since the start of this year.

在中国，自今年年初以来，建造大型太阳能农场的成本上涨了约25%。

“We haven’t seen such a level in years,” said Frank Haugwitz, a Chinese solar panel industry consultant.

“我们很多年都没有见到过这样的上涨幅度了，”中国太阳能电池板行业顾问韩飞(Frank Haugwitz)说。

China is also looking to improve steel-making efficiency. Its steel mills use more electricity each year than all the country’s homes and account for about a sixth of China’s greenhouse gas emissions.

中国也在寻求提高炼钢效率。它的钢厂每年用电量超过全国所有家庭的用电量，约占中国温室气体排放量的六分之一。

Chinese steel companies still rely on coal-fired blast furnaces that melt mostly iron ore to make steel. The West has mostly switched to producing steel in efficient electric arc furnaces, which melt a mix of scrap and iron ore. China is trying to improve scrap collection from demolished buildings, but switching to electric arc furnaces will be gradual, said Sebastian Lewis, a Chinese energy and commodities consultant.

中国钢铁企业仍然依赖燃煤高炉，主要熔炼铁矿石来炼钢。西方国家大多已改用高效的电弧炉产钢，电弧炉熔化废钢和铁矿石的混合物。中国能源和大宗商品顾问塞巴斯蒂安·刘易斯(Sebastian Lewis)表示，中国正在努力改善建筑物拆除后的废料收集工作，但转向电弧炉将是一个循序渐进的过程。

For now, China’s worries are focused on the winter. During a severe cold snap last December, some cities ran short of coal and curtailed factory operations, turned off streetlights and elevators and limited heating of offices. The problems appeared even though power plants started the winter with several weeks of coal in stockpiles.

目前，中国主要担忧的是冬季。在去年12月的严重寒流中，一些城市出现煤炭短缺，工厂停工，路灯和电梯停用，办公室供暖受限。尽管发电厂在冬季开始时有几周的煤炭库存，但问题还是出现了。

This year, China’s biggest provinces have only nine to 14 days worth in storage, according to CQCoal, a Chinese coal data firm.

根据中国煤炭数据公司秦皇岛煤炭网的数据，今年中国最大的省份只有九到14天的煤炭库存。

“The stocks are low, much lower than they should be,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a specialist in Chinese energy at the National University of Singapore. “And they’re panicking for winter.”

“库存很低，远低于应有的水平，”新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)中国能源专家菲利普·安德鲁斯—斯皮德(Philip Andrews-Speed)说。“他们正在对冬天感到恐慌。”