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「中英」在动荡和危机中,拜登和特朗普给了世界两种选择

November 17, 2022   8 min   1617 words

纳尼?给了世界两个选择?

周三与记者见面前,拜登总统在印度尼西亚巴厘岛与七国集团和北约领导人举行了会晤。
周三与记者见面前,拜登总统在印度尼西亚巴厘岛与七国集团和北约领导人举行了会晤。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

BALI, Indonesia — President Biden returns home from a week of diplomacy and crisis management in the Middle East and Asia strengthened in his faith that this period of war and economic turmoil calls for his brand of coalition-building politics — reinforcing the leadership differences with his predecessor, Donald J. Trump, just as he announced another White House run on Tuesday.

印度尼西亚巴厘岛——在中东和亚洲进行了为期一周的外交活动和危机管理之后,拜登总统回到了美国。此行让他更加相信在这个战争和经济动荡时期,世界需要他那种建设联盟的政治,同时也使得他与前任总统特朗普的领导差异更加强烈,后者已在周二宣布将再次竞选总统。

Mr. Biden’s swing through Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia was buoyed by a cascade of better-than-expected news for Democrats in the midterm elections and punctuated by a nearly three-hour meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, that appeared to ease the rancorous rhetoric between the two increasingly rivalrous economies, the world’s largest.

民主党在中期选举中获得了一连串好于预期的结果,也让拜登在短暂访问埃及、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚期间受到鼓舞。拜登还与中国最高领导人习近平举行了近三个小时的会谈,似乎让世界上这两个竞争日益激烈的对手之间的敌对言辞有所缓和。

As reports emerged of Russian-made rockets killing two people in Poland, Mr. Biden convened an emergency meeting with NATO and Group of 7 leaders over the latest missile strikes in Russia’s war in Ukraine, declining to speculate on the source until more facts were known.

随着俄制火箭弹在波兰导致两人死亡的报道出现,拜登与北约和七国集团领导人举行了紧急会议,讨论了俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的最新一轮导弹袭击。他拒绝在了解更多事实之前推测打到波兰的火箭弹是谁发射的。

The week’s events epitomize, Mr. Biden’s aides and allies say, the president’s approach to governing, which preaches cooling tempers and restoring the sort of alliances that his predecessor ignored or rended. Over the course of his trip to Asia, he effectively offered global leaders the same choice he campaigned on in the closing days of the midterms: Do you want Mr. Trump’s brand of American leadership, or mine?

拜登的助手和盟友说,本周发生的事情充分体现了总统控制事态的做法,那就是强调冷静的态度,恢复被他的前任忽视或撕裂的联盟。在他的亚洲之行期间,拜登实际上提供给全球领导人的,是他在美国中期选举的最后几天提供给选民的同样选择:你们是要特朗普的那种美国领导力,还是我的这种?
拜登和中国国家主席习近平已做出了缓和两国之间一些激烈言辞的姿态。
拜登和中国国家主席习近平已做出了缓和两国之间一些激烈言辞的姿态。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

During Mr. Trump’s time in office, his style differed sharply, aligning America with strongmen and dictators at the expense of traditional democratic allies. Mr. Trump was friendlier than Mr. Biden has been in office with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia; the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un; and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. With Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump vacillated between syrupy compliments and harsh language, depending on the issue.

特朗普在总统任上的做法截然不同,他以牺牲美国的传统民主盟友为代价,公开支持强权人物和独裁者。与拜登在总统任上一直的做法相比,特朗普对俄罗斯总统普京、朝鲜领导人金正恩,以及沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼都更友好。在对待习近平的态度上,特朗普根据问题的不同,在甜言蜜语的恭维和刻薄的言辞之间摇摆不定。

As Mr. Trump announced on Tuesday that he would run for president again, he called the coronavirus the “China virus” yet also called Mr. Xi, who moved last month to extend his reign and consolidate his power, a “king.”

特朗普周二宣布再次竞选总统时,把新冠病毒称为“中国病毒”,但也把上个月在中共二十大上延长了统治、巩固了权力的习近平称为“国王”。

“Trump indulged in personal diplomacy, thinking he could resolve problems by dealing directly with various authoritarian leaders,” said Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Biden tends to see authoritarians for what they are and sets his sights lower.”

“特朗普沉湎于个人外交,认为他能用与各种威权领导人直接打交道的方式解决问题,”外交关系委员会主席理查德·哈斯说。“拜登往往看清了独裁者的本来面目,从而将眼光放得更低。”

With Mr. Trump’s declaration looming in the global backdrop, Mr. Biden appeared uninterested in discussing the former president’s candidacy. As Mr. Trump was speaking, Mr. Biden arrived at a mangrove forest in Bali to meet with other leaders, including President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, for a ceremonial planting to signal a commitment to climate initiatives.

随着特朗普再度参选的声明逐渐浮现于全球背景下,拜登似乎对讨论这位前总统的候选人资格不感兴趣。在特朗普宣布参选的时候,拜登来到了巴厘岛的一片红树林中,与法国总统马克龙、德国总理肖尔茨,以及印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪等国家领导人一起,举行植树仪式,作为对气候倡议的承诺。
周三,拜登与各国领导人举行紧急会议,讨论俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中发动的最新一轮导弹袭击。
周三,拜登与各国领导人举行紧急会议,讨论俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中发动的最新一轮导弹袭击。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

Among the mangroves, Mr. Biden was asked if he had any reaction to Mr. Trump’s run. The president shared a look with Mr. Macron and continued walking. “No. Not really,” he said, turning his attention back to the plants.

记者在红树林中问拜登对特朗普参选有何反应。拜登与马克龙交换了一个眼神后继续往前走。“没有。真没什么,”他说,然后将注意力转回到树上。

At other times during the week, the president’s message about Mr. Trump was implicit. “On my first trip overseas last year, I said that America was back — back at home, back at the table, and back to leading the world,” Mr. Biden said at a news conference on Monday, shortly after his meeting with Mr. Xi. “In the year and a half that’s followed, we’ve shown exactly what that means.”

在本周的其他时间,拜登只是不直接言明地提到过特朗普。“去年我第一次出国时就说过,美国回来了——回家了,回到了谈判桌上,回到了领导世界的地位,”拜登在周一与习近平见面后不久举行的新闻发布会上说。“在那之后的一年半里,我们已明确地展示了这意味着什么。”

“America is keeping its commitments. America is investing in our strength at home. America is working alongside our allies and partners to deliver real, meaningful progress around the world,” he said. “And at this critical moment, no nation is better positioned to help build the future we want than the United States of America.”

“美国正在信守承诺。美国正在投资于国内实力。美国正在与我们的盟友和伙伴共同努力,在世界范围内推动真正的、有意义的进步,”他说。“在这个关键时刻,没有哪个国家比美利坚合众国更有能力帮助建设我们憧憬的未来。”
“去年我第一次出国时就说过,美国回来了,回家了,回到了谈判桌上,回到了领导世界的地位,”拜登在周一的新闻发布会上说。
“去年我第一次出国时就说过,美国回来了,回家了,回到了谈判桌上,回到了领导世界的地位,”拜登在周一的新闻发布会上说。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Trump offered a more confrontational and nationalist message on Tuesday evening, as he announced his 2024 campaign at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

周二晚上,特朗普在佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌庄园宣布参加2024年竞选时,发出了更具对抗性和民族主义色彩的讯息。

“When I left office, the United States stood ready for its golden age,” he said. “Our nation was at the pinnacle of its power, prosperity and prestige, towering above all rivals, vanquishing all enemies, and striding into the future confident and strong.”

“在我卸任时,美国已做好了迎接黄金时代的准备,”他说。“我们的国家处于国力、繁荣和威望的顶峰,超越一切对手,战胜一切敌人,自信而强大地迈向未来。”

“For the first time in memory,” he added, “China was reeling and back on its heels.”

“这是记忆中第一次,”他补充说,“中国开始陷入困境,立足不稳。”

Under his presidency, the United States did take a markedly tougher approach to China, including over trade, Taiwan and Beijing’s influence abroad.

在他担任总统期间,美国确实对中国采取了明显更为强硬的态度,包括在贸易、台湾和北京的海外影响力方面。

After the coronavirus spread from China in 2020, the Trump administration’s antagonism toward Beijing had an increasingly ideological hue, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declaring that “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time.”

在2020年新冠病毒开始从中国传播后,特朗普政府对北京的对抗有了越来越多的意识形态色彩,国务卿迈克·庞皮欧宣布,“确保我们的自由不受中共侵犯是我们时代的使命”。

Mr. Biden has continued many of those policies, even if he smoothed their more abrasive edges, while laying out new restrictions on China’s access to technology. In effect, he has sought to use a more open dialogue with Mr. Xi to defuse Beijing’s criticism of America’s increasingly confrontational economic policies toward China.

拜登延续了其中许多政策,尽管相对没那么尖锐,但与此同时也对中国获取技术施加了新的限制。实际上,他试图利用与习近平更开放的对话,来化解中国政府对美国日益对抗的对华经济政策的批评。
唐纳德·特朗普周二宣布竞选总统。
唐纳德·特朗普周二宣布竞选总统。 Saul Martinez for The New York Times

Mr. Biden’s approach has won praise in Asia. Thomas Lembong, a former trade minister in Indonesia, said Mr. Biden’s “constructive posture is clearly more conducive for the region and the world than Trump’s hostile actions combined with his hostile rhetoric.”

拜登的做法在亚洲赢得了赞誉。印尼前贸易部长托马斯·伦邦说,拜登的“建设性姿态显然比特朗普的敌对行动和敌对言论更有利于该地区和世界。”

But Robert Ross, a political science professor at Boston College and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, said that Mr. Biden’s more amicable approach also belied his administration’s effort to impede China’s access to technologies that could advance its computing abilities or bolster its military.

但波士顿学院政治学教授、美中关系全国委员会成员罗伯特·罗斯说,尽管表面看起来更友好,但拜登政府在着力阻止中国获得可能提升其计算能力或增强军事实力的技术。

“This is a policy designed to maintain American supremacy and that requires countering the rise of China,” Mr. Ross said. “Certainly the president is very confident in America’s ability to contend with the rise of China. But this has to be sustained through numerous presidents, not just the Biden administration.”

“这是一项旨在维护美国优势地位的政策,需要对抗中国的崛起,”罗斯说。“当然,总统对美国应对中国崛起的能力非常有信心。但这必须通过多位总统来维持,而不仅仅是拜登政府。”

Mr. Biden left Washington for a weeklong trip two days after the midterm elections. He took aim at Mr. Trump in his first stop, apologizing at a climate summit in Egypt for Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of an agreement to limit catastrophic levels of global warming.

在中期选举结束两天后,拜登离开华盛顿进行为期一周的访问。他的第一站就把矛头对准了特朗普,在埃及的气候峰会上,为特朗普决定退出一项限制灾难性全球变暖程度的协议而道歉。
在埃及的气候峰会上,拜登为特朗普决定退出一项限制全球变暖灾难性程度的协议道歉。
在埃及的气候峰会上,拜登为特朗普决定退出一项限制全球变暖灾难性程度的协议道歉。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

But as the trip progressed, Mr. Biden spoke less about his predecessor and more about what the outcome of the midterms said about Mr. Trump and candidates who falsely claimed that the 2020 election was stolen.

但随着行程的推进,拜登对前任的谈论越来越少,而是更多谈到中期选举结果对特朗普和那些错误声称2020年大选被窃取的候选人的影响。

Midway through his stop in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, at a summit of Southeast Asian leaders, news outlets declared that Democrats had retained control of the Senate. By the time he reached Bali, for a meeting of the Group of 20 nations, it was clear Mr. Biden’s party had suffered relatively small losses in the House for an incumbent party in a midterm.

他在柬埔寨金边参加东南亚领导人峰会时,新闻媒体宣布民主党人仍控制参议院。等到拜登抵达巴厘岛参加20国集团会议时,已经可以清楚地看到,拜登所在的民主党在众议院中期选举中遭受的损失,作为一个执政党来说并不算大。

An ebullient Mr. Biden claimed momentum on the international stage from those domestic results. “It’s been clear just how closely the world and our allies and our competitors as well have been following our elections at home,” Mr. Biden said at his news conference. “And what these elections showed is that there is a deep and unwavering commitment in America to preserving and protecting and defending democracy.”

热情高涨的拜登声称,这些国内选举结果推动了他在国际舞台上的发展。“很明显,全世界、我们的盟友和竞争对手都在密切关注我们国内的选举,”拜登在新闻发布会上说。“这些选举表明,美国人对维护、保护和捍卫民主有着深刻而坚定的承诺。”

Mr. Biden did not script the split-screen drama that played out on Wednesday morning in Bali — Tuesday night in Florida — but it illustrated exactly the contrast that White House advisers had hoped to draw at the time of Mr. Trump’s entry into the 2024 campaign.

周三上午在巴厘岛上演、周二晚上在佛罗里达州上演的两场分庭抗礼的大戏,并非按照拜登的剧本进行,但在特朗普宣布开始2024年竞选之时,这样的反差正是白宫顾问想要看到的。

A few days before the midterms, one Biden adviser told reporters that the likely timing of Mr. Trump’s announcement would give Mr. Biden a chance to show himself as “the president of the United States leading the free world in a way only he can.”

在中期选举的几天前,拜登的一名顾问告诉记者,特朗普宣布这一决定的可能时机,将给拜登一个机会,显示自己才是“能以只有他才能做到的方式领导自由世界的美国总统”。

Mr. Biden had planned to spend the moments surrounding Mr. Trump’s speech engaged in photo-opportunity diplomacy, planting mangrove trees with fellow leaders and receiving a personal tour of the forest from President Joko Widodo of Indonesia.

拜登原计划利用特朗普演讲前后的时间进行“拍照外交”,与其他领导人一起种植红树,并与印尼总统佐科·维多多一道亲自参观森林。
在20国集团峰会期间,拜登在巴厘岛与其他领导人一起种植红树。
在20国集团峰会期间,拜登在巴厘岛与其他领导人一起种植红树。 Pool photo by Mast Irham

But he woke early to news that Russian-made missiles had exploded in Poland. He delayed the tree planting and called an emergency meeting of allies. Afterward, he addressed reporters, pledging full support for an investigation and condemning Moscow’s latest round of missile attacks across Ukraine, even as he suggested the explosion in Poland may not have been the fault of Russia.

但他一大早就听到了俄罗斯制造的导弹在波兰爆炸的消息。他推迟了植树计划,并召集盟友召开紧急会议。随后,他向记者发表讲话,承诺全力支持调查,并谴责莫斯科在乌克兰各地发动的最新一轮导弹袭击,尽管他同时表示,波兰的爆炸可能不是俄罗斯的错。

“They’ve been totally unconscionable, what they’re doing. Totally unconscionable,” Mr. Biden said. “At the moment when the world came together at the G20 to urge de-escalation, Russia has chosen to escalate in Ukraine, while we’re meeting.”

“他们的所作所为完全不合情理。完全不合情理,”拜登说。“就在全世界齐聚20国集团敦促缓和局势之际,俄罗斯却选择在我们开会的时候,在乌克兰升级事态。”

A few moments later, Mr. Trump began an hourlong campaign kickoff at his home in Palm Beach, Fla., rehashing a familiar pitch that America is declining and only he can turn it around, peppered with provocative claims often detached from facts. He claimed without evidence that the invasion of Ukraine “would never have happened if I were your president,” and he mocked Mr. Biden over the Polish explosions.

几分钟后,特朗普在位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的家中开始了长达一小时的竞选启动活动。他重提美国正在衰落、只有他自己能扭转局面的老生常谈,夹杂着往往脱离事实的挑衅性言论。他在没有证据的情况下声称,入侵乌克兰这件事“如果我是你们的总统,就绝不会发生”,他还就波兰爆炸事件嘲笑拜登。
周三,一辆警车驶向波兰火箭爆炸现场。
周三,一辆警车驶向波兰火箭爆炸现场。 Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press

“A missile was sent in probably by Russia to Poland, 50 miles into Poland,” Mr. Trump said. “And people are going absolutely wild and crazy, and they are not happy. They are very angry. And we have a president who falls asleep at global conferences.”

“一枚导弹很可能是俄罗斯向波兰发射的,射入了波兰50英里,”特朗普说。“人们都疯了,他们很不开心。他们非常生气。而我们的总统在全球会议上睡着了。”

Some 10,000 miles away, Mr. Biden, whose first call of the day had been completed by 5:30 that morning, walked among the mangroves with other world leaders.

大约1万英里之外,拜登与其他世界领导人一起在红树林中漫步。当天早上5点半,他打完了那一天的第一个电话。