「中英」普京和他的朋友们如何破坏了全球气候合作 -

Such has been the deft calculus of Mr. Putin’s friendship with Mr. Xi. The first glimpse of this came in 2014, less than two years after Mr. Xi rose to power atop the Communist Party of China.

这就是普京与习近平友谊之中的巧妙计算。2014 年，在习近平成为中共领导人不到两年后，这段友谊初见端倪。

That same year — and in violation of international law — Mr. Putin reclaimed Crimea, a part of Ukraine, as Russian territory. Soon, Russian energy companies faced sanctions intended to slash the country’s revenues.

那年，普京违反国际法，将乌克兰的克里米亚划为俄罗斯领土。不久，俄罗斯能源公司面临旨在削减该国收入的制裁。

For Mr. Putin, it widened access to the world’s biggest energy consumer. For Mr. Xi, it meant reducing his country’s dependency on coal, which was poisoning the country’s air and stirring public discontent.

对普京来说，这扩大了与世界最大能源消费国的联系。对习近平来说，这减少了他的国家对正在污染空气 并激起公众不满的煤炭的依赖。

Mr. Xi pursued this relationship even as he met with President Barack Obama, announcing later that same year a landmark climate cooperation deal that laid the groundwork for the Paris accord.

习近平甚至在与奥巴马总统会晤时也在追求这种关系，那年晚些时候，中美宣布了一项具有里程碑意义的气候合作协议，为巴黎协议奠定了基础。

He also set China on a course to develop more wind and solar power than any country in the world. He secured the world’s cobalt and lithium supplies — key minerals for the renewable energy economy. He turned China into the leading exporter of everything from solar photovoltaic cells to electric buses. His call for an “ecological civilization” became enshrined by Chinese officials as part of “Xi Jinping Thought.”

他还让中国走上了成为世界上发展风能和太阳能最多的国家的道路。他确保了全球钴和锂的供应，这是可再生能源经济的关键矿物。他把中国变成了从太阳能光伏电池到电动巴士等各种产品的主要出口国。他对 “生态文明” 的呼吁被中国官员奉为 “习近平思想” 的一部分。

中国山西省的太阳能板。 Sam Mcneil/Associated Press

“He sees climate as an area for staking China’s global leadership,” said Cecilia Han Springer, who tracks China’s energy and climate policy at Boston University.

波士顿大学跟踪中国能源和气候政策的塞西莉亚 · 韩 · 施普林格（音）说：“他认为气候是奠定中国全球领导地位的一个领域。”

China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

This is in stark contrast to Mr. Putin. And yet, the two men have carefully cultivated a relationship of mutual need.

这与普京形成了鲜明对比。尽管如此，两人还是精心培养了一种相互需要的关系。

They have met nearly 40 times, sometimes celebrating birthdays together. In 2018, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Mr. Xi draped a golden medal around Mr. Putin’s neck, China’s first ever friendship medal. Mr. Xi called Mr. Putin his “best friend.”

他们见过近 40 次面，有时还一起庆祝生日。2018 年，在北京人民大会堂，习近平将一枚金质奖章 挂在普京的脖子上，这是中国有史以来第一枚友谊勋章。习近平称普京是他 “最要好的知心朋友”。

He was returning the favor from a year earlier, when Mr. Putin hosted Mr. Xi at the Grand Kremlin Palace and awarded him one of Russia’s highest medals for foreign dignitaries.

他是在为一年前的事投桃报李，当时普京在大克里姆林宫接待了习近平，并授予他俄罗斯为外国政要颁发的最高奖章之一。

Today Mr. Xi’s green economy goals face significant challenges, many of his own making. Mr. Xi’s zero Covid policy battered the economy. Last fall, a coal shortage prompted widespread electricity blackouts . Few things sow doubts about the strength of a leader like power cuts.

如今，习近平的绿色经济目标面临重大挑战，其中许多是他自己造成的。习近平的 “清零” 政策打击了经济。去年秋天，煤炭短缺引发了大范围的停电 。很少有什么事情能像断电一样让人怀疑一个领导人的能力。

And so, economic growth and energy security took priority over greening the Chinese economy. Over the past year, China, which accounts for little more than half the world’s coal consumption, has doubled down on coal, building three times more electricity-generating coal capacity in 2021 — 33 gigawatts — than the rest of the world combined. Coal emissions have risen significantly .

因此，经济增长和能源安全优先于中国经济的绿色发展。过去一年里，占全球煤炭消费量一半多一点的中国加大了对煤炭的投入，在 2021 年新增煤电装机容量为 3300 万千瓦，是世界其他国家总和的三倍 。煤炭排放量显著上升 。

The deepening strains between the United States and China now pose grave risks to the world’s ability to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. That widening fault line only helps Mr. Putin.

美国和中国之间不断加深的紧张关系现在对世界减少全球温室气体排放的能力构成了严重风险。这条不断扩大的断层线只会有利于普京。

“To the extent that a Russia-China partnership is designed to cut out the United States, it is bad for climate action,” said David Sandalow, a former White House aide who wrote a book on China’s climate policies.

Adnan Abidi/Reuters

Mr. Modi has played that role to his advantage. India needs energy at low prices. India is also home to some very big refineries. The war in Ukraine has given India new opportunities.

莫迪充分利用了这一角色。印度需要低价能源。印度也有一些非常大的炼油厂。乌克兰战争给了印度新的机会。

Mr. Modi has what he calls a “special chemistry” with Mr. Putin. He sees him as trustworthy, he said, and shares with him an affinity for wildlife and physical fitness. “I know that physically he is a very well-built person, he leads an active lifestyle, keeps himself in shape. I love it,” Mr. Modi said in an interview with Tass , the Russian news agency. “He is also interested in the environment, wildlife, the underwater world, especially in the conservation of tigers, and so on. I’m the same by nature.”

莫迪与普京之间有种莫迪所说的 “特殊的化学反应”。莫迪说，他认为普京值得信赖，和他一样喜欢野生动物和健身。“我知道他是一个体格健壮的人，他有积极的生活方式，保持着良好的身材。我喜欢这一点，” 莫迪在接受俄罗斯塔斯社 采访时说。“他还对环境、野生动物、水下世界也很感兴趣，尤其是对老虎的保护等等。我的天性也是如此。”

Mr. Modi can be a figure of contradictions. A charismatic pro-business, Hindu-nationalist politician, he won landslide elections in 2014 and 2019.

莫迪可以说是个矛盾的人物。他是一位有魅力的亲商业印度教民族主义政治家，在 2014 年和 2019 年的选举中获得压倒性胜利。

His critics note that at home, his government has cracked down on dissent , consolidated his power and made religious minorities second-class citizens. In 2021, the government charged a young climate activist, Disha Ravi, with sedition .

他的批评者指出，在国内，他的政府镇压异议人士 ，巩固他的权力，使宗教少数群体成为二等公民。2021 年，政府以煽动罪 指控年轻的气候活动人士迪沙 · 拉维。

Mr. Modi’s government did not respond to a comment. In the past, the government has responded to criticism by saying the country is a “vibrant democracy” where laws are applied equally to all citizens.

莫迪政府没有回应置评。过去，政府对批评的回应是 ，这个国家是一个 “充满活力的民主国家”，法律平等地适用于所有公民。

On the world stage Mr. Modi has cast himself as a climate statesman. He has put India on a path to meet an ambitious target to have half of its electricity come from non-fossil-fuel sources by 2030. He created regulations requiring utilities to get a significant chunk of their electricity from renewables.

在世界舞台上，莫迪把自己塑造成气候政治家。他为印度制定了雄心勃勃的目标，即到 2030 年，该国一半的电力来自非化石燃料来源。他制定了规定，要求公用事业公司从可再生能源中获得很大一部分电力。

At the same time, his administration has approved coal mines, including in an ecologically sensitive old-growth forest. A government agency projects that India might need 28 gigawatts of coal power capacity over the next decade. And under Mr. Modi’s tenure as prime minister, a coal baron with whom he has long had close ties, Gautam Adani, has become Asia’s richest man .

与此同时，他的政府批准了开采煤矿，包括在一个生态敏感的古老森林之中。一家政府机构预计，印度在未来十年可能需要 2800 万千瓦的煤电装机容量。在莫迪担任总理期间，与他有着长期密切关系的煤炭大亨高塔姆 · 阿达尼成为亚洲首富 。

Mr. Modi’s “special chemistry” with Mr. Putin has delivered a boon to both countries.

信实工业位于古吉拉特邦的贾姆纳加尔联合炼油厂。 Reliance Industries Limited in Jamnagar, via Associated Press

Indian refineries are bringing in vastly higher volumes of low-cost Russian crude oil than before, and turning it into diesel, which now sells at high prices, thanks to the war. Imports of Russian crude went from an anemic 30,000 barrels last year to 1 million barrels a day in April, and are now hovering around 800,000 barrels a day, according to figures from Kpler, a commodities analyst.

印度的炼油厂正在引进数量大大超过以往的低成本俄罗斯原油，并将其转化为柴油，由于战争，柴油现在售价很高。大宗商品分析公司 Kpler 的数据显示，今年 4 月，印度对俄罗斯原油的进口量从去年的三万桶增加到每日 100 万桶，目前在每天 80 万桶左右徘徊。

At the moment, much of it appears to be sold inside India. But analysts expect exports to grow as European sanctions against the import of Russian oil toughen in December and diesel demand is set to soar.

目前，大部分原油似乎在印度国内出售。但分析人士预计，随着欧洲 12 月加强对俄罗斯石油进口的制裁，以及柴油需求将飙升，出口将会增长。

“It’s pure refinery economics,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at Kpler. Once refined into diesel, it’s no longer considered Russian oil. “On paper it would be Indian diesel,” he said.

“这纯粹是炼油厂经济，”Kpler 的分析师霍玛勇 · 法拉克沙希说。一旦提炼成柴油，它就不再被认为是俄罗斯石油了。“理论上，这将是印度柴油，” 他说。

In addition, India’s import of Russian coal are set to double this year, compared with 2021, according to Kpler.

此外，据 Kpler 称，与 2021 年相比，印度今年从俄罗斯进口的煤炭将翻一番。

India’s oil ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. Mr. Modi’s oil minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has said India faces no “moral conflict” in buying Russian oil. “Modi’s government doesn’t feel the pressure. We are the fifth largest economy in the world,” he said in a recent CNN interview . “India will respond according to its supreme national interest.”

印度石油部没有回复记者的置评请求。莫迪的石油部长哈迪普 · 辛格 · 普里表示，印度在购买俄罗斯石油方面没有 “道德冲突”。“莫迪政府没有感受到压力。我们是世界第五大经济体，” 他最近在接受 CNN 采访时表示 。“印度将根据其最高国家利益作出回应。”

Pavel Golovkin/EPA, via Shutterstock

On the other side of the planet, in Brazil, voters in 2018 elected a right-wing nationalist, Jair Bolsonaro, as president. He dismissed the need to address climate change. He set out to convert much of the Amazon into farmland to elevate Brazil as an agricultural powerhouse.

在地球的另一面，巴西在 2018 年选出了右翼民族主义总统贾尔 · 博尔索纳罗。他对应对气候变化的必要性不屑一顾。他着手将大面积亚马孙森林改造为农田，以提升巴西农业强国的地位。

One of the first things Mr. Bolsonaro did when he took office in 2019 was to dismantle the $1.2 billion Amazon Fund, backed by Norway and Germany to fight environmental crime. He gutted environmental protection agencies and stripped their budgets, making it all but impossible to collect fines for illegal deforestation.

博尔索纳罗在 2019 年上任后的首要工作之一，就是取消由挪威和德国支持的 12 亿美元的亚马孙基金，该基金旨在打击环境犯罪。他砍掉了了各个环保机构并剥夺其预算，导致几乎没办法对森林非法砍伐征收罚款。

Mr. Bolsonaro’s office didn’t reply to a request for comment. In the past he has frequently denied his policies have been harmful to the Amazon.

博尔索纳罗的办公室没有回复置评请求。他以前经常否认自己的政策对亚马孙森林造成了伤害。

On Feb. 14 this year, as Russia amassed troops on the Ukraine border, Mr. Bolsonaro traveled to Moscow for the first time. At a news conference with Mr. Putin, Mr. Bolsonaro thanked his “dear friend,” saying that Mr. Putin had offered him support when other world leaders were criticizing his Amazon policy. “I want to thank your intervention, which was always on our side, in defense of our sovereignty.”

今年 2 月 14 日，就在俄罗斯的军队集结于乌克兰边境之时，博尔索纳罗首次前往莫斯科。在与普京举行的新闻发布会上，博尔索纳罗感谢了这位 “好朋友”，称在他的亚马孙政策遭遇其他世界领导人批评之际，是普京给了他支持。“我要感谢你的调停，总是站在我们的一边，是为了捍卫我们的主权。”

Mr. Putin, in turn, called Brazil his most important partner in Latin America.

为牧牛而砍伐的巴西亚马孙森林。 Andre Penner/Associated Press

And he gave Mr. Bolsonaro what he badly needed, a promise of unlimited supplies of Russian-made fertilizer at low prices, at a time when global fertilizer prices were soaring, punishing Brazil’s farmers. Russian fertilizer imports, which were falling sharply, grew by over 20 percent over the next five months compared with the year-earlier period. In addition, for the first time since 2018, Brazil began importing Russian diesel.

他给了博尔索纳罗迫切需要的东西，承诺以低价无限量为巴西供应俄罗斯化肥，当时正值全球化肥价格飙升，给巴西农户带来了极大负担。在那之后的五个月里，原本急剧下降的俄罗斯化肥进口比上一年同期增长超过 20%。此外，巴西还自 2018 年以来首次开始进口俄罗斯柴油。

It wasn’t enough to save Mr. Bolsonaro’s political future. He lost the election last week.

那并没能挽救博尔索纳罗的政治前途。他在上周的选举中落败。

But he leaves a legacy of damage that could take decades to repair, if at all. Chief among them: In his first three years as president alone, Brazil recorded more than 13,000 square miles of deforestation in the Amazon.

但他遗留的破坏可能需要数十年才能修复，或许修复也只是徒劳。其中最为严重的后果是：仅在他担任总统的头三年里，巴西就有超过 3.3 万平方公里的亚马孙森林遭到砍伐。

As with Mr. Bolsonaro, Donald Trump’s actions will far outlast his presidency.

就像博尔索纳罗一样，特朗普所作所为的影响也将远超他的总统任期。

Consider one of his earliest decisions, to pull the United States out of the Paris agreement — an agreement his predecessor had just negotiated. It played directly into Putin’s vision of the future. When the nations of the world agreed in Paris to work together to fight climate change back in 2015, Mr. Putin didn’t object to the pact.

他刚上任的决策之一就是让美国退出他的前任刚刚谈成的巴黎协定。这完全迎合了普京对未来的规划。2015 年，当世界各国在巴黎就共同应对气候变化达成协议之时，普京并没有反对。

特朗普任命得州石油企业高管雷克斯 · 蒂勒森为国务卿，后者曾在埃克森美孚工作。 Nicholas Kamm/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

But he didn’t need to because the very next year, the newly elected Mr. Trump took a wrecking ball to it when he not only pulled out of the Paris accord but also commenced a sweeping rollback of environmental regulations.

但他无需反对，因为就在第二年，新当选的特朗普彻底打破了局面，不仅退出巴黎协定，还开始全面撤销 环境法规。

Mr. Trump’s actions continue to shape the world. His rollbacks are projected to add at least 1.8 billion tons of extra carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2035 and lead to thousands of extra deaths annually from poor air quality.

特朗普的行为仍在改变世界。预计到 2035 年，他的撤销举措将让大气中的二氧化碳排放额外增加至少18 亿吨 ，并导致每年因空气质量差造成的超额死亡人数 大量增加。

On Friday a spokesman for Mr. Trump, Taylor Budowich, said: “Climate radicals are not just attempting to destroy American energy, but the very pursuit of the American Dream. President Trump led America’s energy renaissance that ensured safe and reliable energy production, and low prices for every American.”

周五，特朗普的发言人泰勒 · 布多维奇表示：“气候激进分子不仅想摧毁美国能源业，而且还要毁掉对美国梦的追求。特朗普总统领导了美国的能源复兴，确保了安全可靠的能源生产，并为每一位美国人提供了低廉的价格。”

Sputnik/Reuters

Earlier this year, on the fourth of February, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin met at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. They signed a $117 billion oil deal. Twenty days later, Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.

在今年早些时候的 2 月 4 日，习近平与普京在北京冬奥会期间见面。他们签署了价值 1170 亿美元的石油协议。二十天后，普京入侵乌克兰。

In October, Mr. Xi secured a third term as president. His grip on power became nearly absolute. And in his remarks at the historic moment, he made clear that he wouldn’t be rushed on getting rid of coal. “We will advance initiatives to reach peak carbon emissions in a well-planned and phased way in line with the principle of building the new before discarding the old,” he said .

10 月，习近平获得了第三个国家主席任期。他几乎掌握了绝对的权力。而在这个历史性时刻的讲话 中，他明确表示不会急于摆脱煤炭。“坚持先立后破，有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动，”他说 。

Mr. Putin’s fossil fuel riches have been hard for the world to discard. The value of his exports have grown since the war. China’s oil imports from Russia have doubled, Turkey’s more than tripled, and India’s quintupled.

世界始终难以对普京的化石燃料财富弃置不顾。自战争以来，他的出口商品价值一直在增加 。中国从俄罗斯进口的石油增加了一倍，土耳其增加了两倍多，印度增加了四倍。

Last month, speaking at an energy forum in Moscow, he said that while it was fine to explore renewable energy sources, ditching oil and gas anytime soon would be a fool’s errand. “Jumping the gun for political reasons, especially populist domestic policies — come on, who does that?” Mr. Putin said.

上个月，在莫斯科的一场能源论坛上，他表示，虽然开发可再生能源是件好事，但短期内放弃石油和天然气将是无用功。普京说，“因为政治原因就草率行事，特别是那些民粹主义的国内政策——拜托，谁会这么做呢？”