「中英」哪里排放了最多的温室气体？ -

气候跟踪联盟估计，中国张家港的沙钢集团钢铁厂排放的温室气体比地球上任何其他钢铁厂都多。 Lionel Derimais

Upstream from Shanghai along the Yangtze River, a sprawling factory complex in eastern China is churning out tens of millions of tons of steel a year — and immense quantities of planet-warming gases.

在中国东部，从上海沿长江而上，有一个庞大的工厂综合体，每年生产数千万吨钢铁的同时，排出大量使地球变暖的气体。

The plant’s owner has not disclosed how much the site emits. Now, though, researchers say that by peering down from space, they have found that the factory’s emissions are likely higher than those of any other steel plant on Earth.

该工厂的所有者没有透露其排放量。但现在，研究人员表示，通过从太空往下看，发现该工厂的排放量可能高于地球上任何其他钢铁厂。

Their estimates are part a new global compendium of emissions released on Wednesday by Climate TRACE , a nonprofit coalition of environmental groups, technology companies and academic scientists. By using software to scour data from satellites and other sources, Climate TRACE says it can project emissions not just for whole countries and industries, but for individual polluting facilities. It catalogs steel and cement factories, power plants, oil and gas fields, cargo ships, cattle feedlots — 72,612 emitters and counting, a hyperlocal atlas of the human activities that are altering the planet’s chemistry.

他们的估测来自气候跟踪联盟 (Climate TRACE) 周三发布的一份新全球排放纲要，该非盈利联盟由环保组织、科技公司和学院科学家组成。气候跟踪联盟表示，通过使用软件从卫星和其他来源搜索数据，它不仅可以预测整个国家和行业的排放量，还可以预测单个污染设施的排放量。它对钢铁和水泥厂、发电厂、石油和天然气田、货船、养牛场进行了编目——共 72612 个排放源，而且还在不断增加，这是一个超本地化的人类活动地图集，这些活动正在改变地球的化学过程。

Scientists have been measuring atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide , methane and other greenhouse gases for decades. They know how much average levels are rising worldwide, and they know that burning of fossil fuels is the main driver. It’s when they try to apportion the blame more precisely — How much are specific industries and companies emitting? In which countries? — that things get complicated.

几十年来，科学家们一直在测量大气中二氧化碳 、甲烷 和其他温室气体的浓度。他们了解到全球平均水平上升了多少，他们还了解到燃烧化石燃料是主要驱动力。他们试图更精确地将排放量归划到不同国家的具体行业和公司，在这里，事情就有些棘手了。

Governments and organizations don’t have monitoring devices strapped to every smokestack and tailpipe, so they generally project emissions using measures of activity: how much coal is burned, how much steel is produced, how much traffic is on the roads. Such estimates aren’t always precise, however, and it can be tricky to avoid double counting.

政府和组织没有在每个烟囱和排气管上安装监控设备，因此他们通常使用测量经济活动来预测排放量：燃烧了多少煤炭，生产了多少钢铁，道路上的交通量。然而，这样的估计并不总是准确的，很难避免重复计算。

Satellites from NASA and its Japanese and Chinese counterparts can measure amounts of greenhouse gases in the column of air beneath them, but clouds and nighttime darkness obstruct their observations. And satellite measurements don’t directly indicate where or when the gases were emitted. Gases mix and get blown around by weather. They linger in the sky for years, even centuries.

美国宇航局及其日本和中国对等机构的卫星可以测量其下方气柱中的温室气体含量，但云层和夜间黑暗阻碍了他们的观测。卫星测量并不能直接表明气体的排放地点或时间。各种气体混合在一起，又被天气吹散。它们在天空中徘徊多年，甚至几个世纪。

The United Nations asks countries to report emissions to guide global climate talks, like this month’s climate summit in Egypt. But tallying it all up is a challenge for many governments, let alone for the companies and cities that are setting their own climate goals.

联合国要求各国报告排放量以指导全球气候谈判，例如本月在埃及举行的气候峰会。但对许多政府而言，将排放量全部汇总起来是一项挑战，更不用说自定气候目标的公司和城市了。

“The whole future of our ability to address climate change, and to avoid the most dangerous effects, hinges on our ability to have solid data,” said Angel Hsu, an environmental policy expert at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “We need to be able to measure things so we can manage them.”

“我们今后能否应对气候变化，以及避免最危险的气候效应，都取决于我们能否取得可靠数据，” 北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的环境政策专家徐安琪说。“我们需要有能力进行测量，以便我们能够管理它们。”

针对钢铁厂，气候跟踪使用卫星测量高炉发出的热量，从而估算出产量和排放量。 Lionel Derimais

Climate TRACE says it can produce emissions estimates that are more up-to-date than existing ones, and that rely less on information reported by governments about their own countries’ emissions. It does this largely by mining satellite imagery and other data to get a more precise measure of individual facilities’ production activity, then estimating their emissions.

气候跟踪联盟表示，它可以生成比现有数据更具时效性的估算值，并且较少依赖各国政府报告的排放量信息。它主要通过挖掘卫星图像和其他数据来更精确地衡量各个设施的生产活动，然后估算它们的排放量。

With steel plants, for instance, the group uses satellite measurements of the heat from blast furnaces to estimate steel output. (The owner of the steel plant in China, Shagang Group, declined to comment.) For power stations, Climate TRACE uses satellite images of the vapor wafting from their chimneys to predict electricity generation.

例如针对钢铁厂，气候跟踪使用卫星测量高炉发出的热量，从而估算出产量。（那家中国钢厂——沙钢集团——拒绝置评。）而对于发电站，他们使用烟囱飘出蒸汽的卫星图片来预测发电量。

The group’s analysis suggests that the oil and gas industry emits far more than countries have previously reported, in part because of underestimated emissions from flaring , or the burning of unwanted methane, and the large gas leaks known as “super-emitter events .” In other sectors, though, Climate TRACE’s estimates broadly align with existing ones, said one of the group’s researchers, Gavin McCormick.

气候跟踪的分析显示，各国石油天然气产业的排放远高于此前的报告，这在一定程度上是因为少报了来自燃除（燃烧多余的甲烷）和称为 “超级排放事件” 的大规模泄漏导致的排放。不过该组织研究员之一盖文 · 麦科尔米克说，在其它领域，气候跟踪的估值与已有的数据大致相符。

Having site-by-site data on emissions clarifies how much global warming could be mitigated just by reducing the carbon footprints of the largest polluters, Mr. McCormick said. Climate TRACE has begun working with six regional governments in Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Spain and Italy to provide information about local emissions, said one of the group’s funders, former Vice President Al Gore.

麦科尔米克说，在掌握了具体到场地的排放数据后，可以清楚地看到，仅仅通过减少最大排放源的碳足迹，就可以在多大程度上缓解全球变暖。创始人之一、前副总统艾尔 · 戈尔说，气候跟踪已经开始与墨西哥、巴西、南非、西班牙和意大利的六个地区政府合作，提供有关当地排放的信息。

More granular data can also help businesses compare suppliers to minimize their climate footprint, said Simon Fischweicher, who is the head of corporations and supply chains for the North America division of CDP, a nonprofit that collects information about companies’ environmental impact.

CDP 北美区企业和供应链主管西蒙 · 菲仕维希尔说，更细分的数据有助于企业进行供应商比对，从而尽可能减少它们的气候足迹。CDP 是一家收集企业环境影响相关信息的非营利组织。

“We know we have a climate crisis; we don’t need emissions accounting to tell us that,” he said. “The emissions accounting tells us where the decisions need to be made, what actions need to be taken.”

“我们知道现在有一场气候危机；这个不需要排放核算就知道了，” 他说。“排放核算告诉我们的是什么地方需要做决策，需要采取什么行动。”

气候跟踪的分析显示，各国石油天然气产业的排放远高于此前的报告，这在一定程度上是因为少报了来自燃除和称为 “超级排放事件” 的大规模泄漏导致的排放。 Martha Irvine/Associated Press

Climate TRACE’s other backers include the partners of Generation Investment Management, a firm started by Mr. Gore; Google’s philanthropic arm; and the charitable foundations of Eric Schmidt, the former chief executive of Google, and his wife, Wendy, and John Doerr , a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, and his wife, Ann. Among Climate TRACE’s collaborators is Minderoo Foundation, which was founded by the Australian iron-ore magnate Andrew Forrest .

气候跟踪的其他资助人包括世代投资管理的合伙人，这是一家由戈尔创办的公司；谷歌的慈善部门；前谷歌首席执行官埃里克 · 施密特的慈善基金会；以及他的妻子温蒂，硅谷风险投资家约翰 · 多尔及其妻子安。气候跟踪的合作方包括澳大利亚铁矿石巨头安德鲁 · 弗雷斯特创办的明德鲁基金会。

Mr. McCormick said Climate TRACE had “zero plans” to commercialize.

As befits its tech roots, the group has released its data and methods to the public before submitting them for scientific peer review, a process that can take years. Mr. McCormick said he and his collaborators were planning to write an academic study based on their work soon.

由于科学同行审议需要耗时数年，气候跟踪在提交审议前已经将其数据和方法公之于众，这一点也符合该组织的科技业背景。麦科尔米克说他和合作方打算根据他们的研究尽快拿出一篇论文。

Why didn’t they do that before? “Because the world is on fire,” Mr. McCormick said. “We’re firm believers in double-checking everything, but not a believer in, ‘wait years before you publish.’”

为什么不先出论文呢？“因为这个世界已经在着火了，” 麦科尔米克说。“我们坚信一切都需要反复核查，但不认为需要‘等上几年再发表’。”

This approach has made some scientists wary. Jocelyn Turnbull, a scientist at GNS Science, a government research institute in New Zealand, said Climate TRACE still had “a ways to go” in demonstrating the quality of its data, though she described the project as “exciting.” Dr. Turnbull helps lead an initiative at the World Meteorological Organization that helps scientists supply governments with information about emissions.

这样的方法让一些科学家感到警惕。新西兰政府研究机构 GNS 科学的科学家贾思琳 · 特恩布尔说，气候跟踪还 “需要做很多工作” 证明其数据的质量，不过她形容这是个 “激动人心” 的项目。特恩布尔参与领导了世界气象组织的一个倡议行动，帮助科学家向政府提供有关排放的信息。

Philippe Ciais, a researcher at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences near Paris, helps lead Carbon Monitor , a project that tracks daily carbon dioxide emissions. He called Climate TRACE’s methods “very promising.” But, he said, “everything which is not peer reviewed, I would be skeptical.”

位于巴黎附近的气候和环境科学实验室的研究员菲利浦 · 西埃斯参与领导了碳监测，一个追踪每日二氧化碳排放的项目。他称气候跟踪的方法 “前景很好”。但是他说，“任何没有同行审议的东西，我都会持怀疑态度。”