中国燃煤量增加，全球气候目标面临挑战 - 纽约时报中文网

China is poised to take advantage of the global urgency to tackle climate change. It is the world’s dominant manufacturer and user of solar panels and wind turbines. It leads the world in producing energy from hydroelectric dams and is building more nuclear power plants than any other country.

中国已经准备好利用应对气候变化的全球紧迫性。该国是世界上太阳能组件和风力涡轮发电机的主要制造者和使用者，在水力发电方面领先世界，也在建造比任何国家都多的核电站。

But China also burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and has accelerated mining and the construction of coal-fired power plants, driving up the country’s emissions of energy-related greenhouse gases nearly 6 percent last year, the fastest pace in a decade. And China’s addiction to coal is likely to endure for years, even decades.

但中国烧掉的煤炭也超过世界其他国家的总量，并已加快了煤炭开采和燃煤电厂的建设，导致该国去年与能源有关的温室气体排放量增加了近6%，这是十年来最快的增幅。中国对煤炭的依赖可能会持续好几年，甚至几十年。

As the world’s climate negotiators gather this weekend in Egypt for their 27th annual COP gathering , China needs to balance limiting greenhouse gas emissions with its concerns about securing its own energy. The country has long viewed coal, which it has in abundance, as the best way to avoid becoming overly dependent on foreign energy suppliers and remaining susceptible to unpredictable weather, like droughts that reduce the output of hydroelectric dams.

全球气候谈判代表本周末在埃及召开第27届联合国气候变化大会 之际，中国需要在限制温室气体排放与保障自身能源安全之间找到平衡。中国煤炭储量丰富，长期以来一直将煤炭视为避免过度依赖从外国进口能源，以及预防天气造成的不可预测影响（比如干旱导致水电站发电量减少）的最佳办法。

In no country are the climate stakes higher than they are in China. Mainly because of its use of coal, China emits almost a third of all man-made greenhouse gases — more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined.

在气候变化问题上，没有比中国更加利害攸关的国家了。中国的温室气体排放量几乎占世界上人为温室气体排放量的三分之一，高于美国、欧洲和日本的总和，这主要是因为中国仍使用大量煤炭。

“There is no solution to climate change without reducing China’s coal combustion,” said David Sandalow, a senior energy official in the Obama and Clinton administrations.

“不减少中国燃烧的煤，就无法解决气候变化问题，”戴维·桑德罗说，他曾在奥巴马政府和克林顿政府担任高级能源官员。

The big question lies in whether China will run its new coal-fired plants around the clock or only occasionally, as a backup for renewable energy. The country’s consumption of coal alone produces more carbon emissions annually than total energy-related U.S. emissions in a year.

最大的问题是，中国是否会全天候运行新建的燃煤发电厂，还是将其作为可再生能源的后备偶尔运行。中国每年仅煤炭消费产生的碳排放量就超过美国与所有能源相关的年排放总量。

China’s push to build more coal-fired power plants, at a cost of up to $1 billion apiece, has alarmed Western officials. John Kerry, the Biden administration’s climate envoy, warned last year that “adding some 200-plus gigawatts of coal over the last five years, and now another 200 or so coming online in the planning stage, if it went to fruition would actually undo the ability of the rest of the world to achieve a limit of 1.5 degrees” Celsius in global temperature increases.

中国推动建设更多燃煤电厂，每座造价高达10亿美元，这样的做法已使西方官员感到担心。拜登政府的气候特使约翰·克里去年警告说 ，“在过去五年里增加了约200多吉瓦的燃煤发电装机容量，现在又有200多吉瓦的燃煤发电装机容量在规划阶段，如果全部完成的话，这实际上将挫败世界其他地方实现（把全球气温上升）控制在1.5摄氏度以内的能力”。

堆放在山西省一个工业园区的煤。中国加快煤炭开采和燃煤电厂建设的速度，使该国去年的碳排放量增长了近6%。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

中国排放接近世界三分之一的人为温室气体，比美国、欧洲和日本排放的总和还多。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, said in an October report to the Communist Party’s national congress that the country would move faster to develop renewable and nuclear energy. But he also emphasized energy security — strongly signaling a continued reliance on coal, of which China has more reserves than any other country.

今年10月，中国最高领导人习近平在中共二十大上作报告时表示，中国将加快建设可再生能源和核能。但他也强调了能源安全问题，这是对中国将继续依赖煤炭的强烈暗示，中国的煤炭储量比世界上任何国家都多。

“Coal will be used in a cleaner and more efficient way,” Mr. Xi said, with no mention of reducing consumption.

“加强煤炭清洁高效利用，”习近平说，他没有提减少煤炭消耗。

A look at two areas of China — the greater Beijing region and the heart of the coal mining industry in central Shanxi Province — underlines the hopes and the fears of climate scientists.

对中国大北京地区和煤炭产业中心山西省这两个地区的考察可以看出气候科学家的希望和担忧。

The administrative region of Beijing covers an area the size of Connecticut, from broad wheat fields on the plains to the southeast to brush-covered mountain ranges topped with the Great Wall to the north.

北京行政区域的面积相当于康涅狄格州的面积，东南部是宽广的麦田 ，西北部是灌木丛生的山峦，山脊上有长城。

The potential for China to rely heavily on renewable energy is visible in and around Hanhaozhuang, a village on Beijing’s border with Hebei Province to the north. It is a hamlet where brick-walled sheep pens alternate with yellow and gray gourds growing on steel wire trellises.

中国主要依赖可再生能源的潜力从北京北部离河北省边界不远的韩郝庄附近可见一斑。这个小村庄里有用砖墙砌起来的羊圈，还有攀援在钢丝棚上黄灰相间的葫芦。

Just beyond the pens lies a huge expanse of dark blue solar panels mounted on steel frames to keep them tilted at the correct southern angle toward the sun. The solar power farm covers five times the area of the village. Two rows of apple trees grow between each row of solar panels, providing a cash crop for residents.

离羊圈不远的地方有一大片深蓝色的太阳能电池板，安装在钢架上，让它们保持在对着太阳的正确朝南角度。这个太阳能发电厂的面积是韩郝庄的五倍。每排太阳能电池板之间种着两排苹果树，为村民提供了一种经济作物。

A dozen miles to the southwest, in a marsh along the banks of a reservoir, stands a long row of wind turbines. They turn the strong winds blowing off the Gobi Desert into electricity for Beijing. And, closer to the city, utilities have built large gas-fired power plants.

在村子西南20多公里外水库边上的沼泽地里，矗立着一长排风力涡轮发电机。这些发电机把戈壁沙漠刮来的强风转化为提供给北京的电力。在离北京市城区更近的地方，公用事业公司建造了大型燃气发电厂。

These measures drove Beijing’s coal use down 95 percent in the decade through 2020, the most recent year for which data is available. The last coal mine in the region closed three years ago.

这些发电设施让北京的煤炭使用量在截至2020年的十年间降低了95%，这是可获得的最新数据。这个地区的最后一座煤矿已在三年前关闭。

But just in case the weather turns very hot or very cold, raising electricity demand, or if renewable energy slackens, Beijing has not given up on coal. The enormous Huaneng thermal power plant in the city’s southeast sits ready to fire up four coal-fired units each taller than a 10-story apartment tower.

但为了防止天气变得太热或太冷，导致电力需求大增，或可再生能源供应不足，北京也没有放弃煤电。华能集团在北京东南部有一个大型火电厂，随时准备着启动四个燃煤机组，每个机组都比10层公寓楼还要高。

北京北部与河北省交界处的一个风力发电场。中国是世界上主要的风力涡轮发电机制造者。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

北京北部韩郝庄的太阳能发电厂。中国每年安装的太阳能电池板超过世界上其他国家的总和。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

Other regions are much further from giving up on coal. In Shanxi Province, 300 miles southwest of Beijing and the heart of China’s coal country, coal companies in the past year have sharply stepped up the pace at which they carve new or expanded mines into the low, dry hills. Shanxi is also burning vast quantities of coal to power cement factories, steel mills and other industries and to generate electricity — coal consumption grew 80 percent in the decade through 2020. Wind and solar power are growing there, too, but those levels of production were far lower to begin with.

中国其他地区离放弃煤炭还有更远的距离。位于北京西南约500公里的山西省是中国的煤炭之乡，那里的煤炭企业在过去一年里大幅加快了在干燥的丘陵里开采新矿或扩建老矿的步伐。山西省的水泥厂、钢铁厂，以及其他工业也燃烧大量的煤，并用煤发电。在截至2020年的十年里，山西的煤炭消费量增长了80%。虽然山西的风能和太阳能使用也在增长，但这些能源的产量本来就低得多。

Natural gas, which when burned releases roughly half as much carbon dioxide as coal, offers a potential bridge from coal to renewable energy for China. How much China promotes natural gas instead of coal will have long-term consequences for not only its economy but also its relationship with Russia.

燃烧天然气释放的二氧化碳大约是燃烧煤炭的一半，天然气为中国从煤炭到可再生能源的转变提供了一个潜在的过渡。中国在多大程度上推广用天然气取代煤炭，不仅对其经济，而且对中国与俄罗斯的关系都有长远影响。

Gas imports from Russia are increasing rapidly from pipelines and shipped liquefied natural gas despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This year, China has nearly doubled its gas imports through a pipeline from eastern Siberia. But, overall, Russian gas makes up just 1 percent of Chinese energy consumption and less than a tenth of China’s gas consumption. How much more China is prepared to buy from its northern neighbor is unclear and subject to intense speculation among Western officials and energy analysts.

尽管俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰，但中国通过管道和液化运输从俄罗斯进口的天然气正在迅速增加。今年，中国通过东西伯利亚管道进口的天然气几乎翻了一番。但总的来看，俄罗斯天然气仅占中国能源消费的1%，不到中国天然气消费的十分之一。目前还不清楚中国准备从其北方邻国购买多少天然气，西方官员和能源分析人士对这个问题进行了热切的猜测。

The biggest outstanding issue is whether a larger second pipeline, known as Power of Siberia 2, will be built across Mongolia to China. The gas fields in western Siberia had been supplying Europe. But President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has sharply reduced those flows to punish European leaders for opposing his invasion of Ukraine.

悬而未决的最大问题是，是否将建一条穿越蒙古国通往中国的更长管道，即所谓的“西伯利亚力量二号”管道。西伯利亚西部的天然气田曾一直为欧洲提供天然气。但俄罗斯总统弗普京为惩罚反对他入侵乌克兰的欧洲领导人，大幅减少了输送给欧洲的天然气。

Russia has been eager to build Power of Siberia 2, which could supply a tenth of China’s gas needs. But China appears to be stalling, and is mulling whether to deepen its energy relationship with Moscow. China has consistently sought diversity of supply and long-term, low-cost contracts.

俄罗斯一直很想建设“西伯利亚力量二号”管道项目，这条管道可满足中国十分之一的天然气需求。但中国似乎在故意拖延，并在考虑是否要深化与莫斯科的能源关系。寻求能源供应的多样化和低价格的长期合同是中国的一贯做法。

“China has committed to nothing yet,” said Anna Mikulska, a natural gas and Russia expert at Rice University. “They are looking for a bargain.”

“中国还没有做出任何承诺，”莱斯大学的天然气和俄罗斯问题专家安娜·米库尔斯卡说。“他们在找便宜货。”

China is focused for now on coal. The Beijing region’s strategy of keeping a giant coal-fired power plant to meet brief peaks in demand defies conventional wisdom in the global power industry.

中国目前仍把重点放在煤炭上。北京地区保留一座大型燃煤电厂，以满足短暂高峰需求的策略与全球电力行业的普遍认识相悖。

Natural gas has long been seen as a better choice for meeting such peaks, because gas-fired turbines can ramp up electricity production in minutes or even seconds. Coal-fired plants can take a couple of days from a cold start.

天然气一直被认为是满足这种高峰需求的更好选择，因为燃气发电机组可在几分钟甚至几秒钟内提高电力生产。燃煤发电机组从停机状态进入发电状态需要几天时间。

China is now investing heavily in refitting coal-fired power plants to make them more suitable for meeting peak electricity needs, said Zhou Xizhou, a longtime specialist in Chinese energy who is now at S&P Global. Keeping coal-fired power plants running slowly — at 30 to 50 percent of capacity, as China is doing in some cities — allows the plants to be brought up to full capacity very quickly when there is a shortfall in renewable energy.

周希舟是长期研究中国能源问题的专家，目前任职于标普全球，他说，中国目前正在投入大量资金改造燃煤电厂，使它们更适合于满足用电高峰需求。让燃煤发电厂保持以30%到50%的产能运转，像中国在一些城市所做的那样，可让它们在可再生能源出现短缺时迅速实现满负荷运转。

山西省的一个煤矿。中国每年仅来自煤炭消费的碳排放量就超过美国与所有能源相关的年排放总量。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

中国东莞的一座天然气发电厂。燃烧天然气释放的二氧化碳大约是燃烧煤炭的一半，天然气为中国从煤炭到可再生能源的转变提供了一个潜在的过渡。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

The danger for the climate is that electric utilities might not be satisfied with running coal-fired power plants only part of the time, said Mr. Sandalow, the former U.S. energy official. “Once the asset is built, will there be pressure to use it more?” he said.

这给气候带来的危险是，电力公司可能不满足于只在部分时间里满负荷运转燃煤发电厂，美国前能源官员桑德罗说。“这种资产一旦建成，是否会有更多压力将其使用起来？”他问道。

Beijing has begun allowing electric utilities to charge far more money per kilowatt-hour for coal-generated electricity during power shortages. The cost of electricity soared in August when a drought in southwestern China caused a plunge in hydroelectric power and a wave of blackouts.

北京已经开始允许电力公司在电力供应紧张时大幅提高煤电的每千瓦时电价。今年8月曾出现了电价飙升的情况，当时中国西南地区的一场干旱导致了水力发电量骤降、各地轮流停电的现象。

“That brings many companies to the point of considering rooftop solar panels on their factories,” said Frank Haugwitz, a longtime Chinese solar energy sector consultant. China is now installing more solar panels each year than the rest of the world combined, with the electricity generation capacity of new installations doubling again this year.

“这促使许多公司开始考虑在工厂屋顶安装太阳能电池板的做法，”长期在中国太阳能行业担任顾问的弗兰克·豪格威茨说。中国现在每年安装的太阳能电池板数量超过了世界其他地方的总和，今年新安装的太阳能电池板的总发电量再次翻番。

The country’s National Energy Administration has mandated that a slowly rising proportion of new solar installations must have batteries, although this makes the systems more expensive.

中国国家能源局已要求，逐步提高新安装太阳能电池板必须配有储能设备的比例，尽管这会使系统的造价更高。

The goal is for solar panels to meet power needs during the day and store enough electricity in the batteries to meet local needs for another two to four hours after sunset. The batteries also provide extra time for coal-fired power plants to raise electricity output.

这样做的目的是让太阳能电池板在满足白天用电需求外，还能将足够的电能储存起来，以满足本地日落后二到四小时内的用电需求。这些储能设备也让燃煤电厂有更多的时间提高发电量。

A peculiarity of China’s previous climate pledges gives the country’s coal industry an unusual incentive to burn as much coal as possible in the next seven years. Mr. Xi has promised that China’s net carbon emissions will peak “before 2030,” and then shrink to zero by 2060.

中国此前的气候承诺有一种特殊性，这给中国煤炭行业在未来七年尽量多烧煤提供了一个异常的鼓励。习近平承诺 ，中国的净碳排放量将在“2030年前”到达峰值，然后开始降低，在2060年前实现碳中和。

But he has not specified how high these emissions will rise. So burning extra coal in the coming years could in theory help the coal industry keep more mines and power plants running for many more years at higher output, protecting profits and jobs.

但他并没有具体给出排放量峰值有多高。因此，在理论上，在未来几年里燃烧更多的煤可以帮助煤炭行业在更高的产量下保持更多的煤矿和发电厂运行更多年，保护利润和就业。

Experts in China dismiss concerns that their country will do this. Kevin Tu, a Beijing-based fellow for the Center on Global Energy Policy of Columbia University, said China’s national government was deeply committed to reducing smog and other toxic air pollution, in addition to climate goals.

中国的专家们不认为他们的国家会这么做。哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心驻北京研究员涂建军表示，除了实现气候目标外，中国政府也致力于减少雾霾和其他有毒空气污染。

But Beijing authorities will need to watch local officials closely to make sure that they follow national policies, Mr. Tu said. “At the local government level, there are different interest groups trying to push emissions higher at the provincial level,” he said. “This would generate higher economic growth in the short term, unfortunately at the expense of the environment in the long run.”

但中央政府需要严格监督地方官员，以确保他们按照国家的政策去做，涂建军说。“在地方政府层面，有不同的利益集团寻求提高本省的排放额度，”他说。“这会在短期内带来更高的经济增长，但不幸的是，这是以牺牲长远环境利益为代价的。”

北京的一座燃煤发电厂。中国用煤电来帮助满足高峰用电需求。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times