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Despite Russia’s war, China still top threat to US, Pentagon says South China Morning Post

October 28, 2022   5 min   932 words

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“Unlike China, Russia can’t systemically challenge the United States over the long term. But Russian aggression does pose an immediate and sharp threat to our interest and values.”

The report reflects that the US for the first time is facing two major nuclear-armed competitors in Russia and China.

The strategy, along with two other reports released on Thursday on missile defence and nuclear weapons, provides a sweeping blueprint for America’s military planning over the next four years.

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We live in turbulent times. Yet, I am confident that the Department, along with our counterparts throughout the U.S. Government and our Allies and partners around the world, is well positioned to meet the challenges of this decisive decade. https://t.co/7UqxXkyDbL

— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) October 27, 2022

While much of it is consistent with the previous report, the strategy takes into account how the world has changed since 2018, when US troops were still fighting in Afghanistan and a massive Russian invasion of Ukraine seemed almost unthinkable.

The previous strategy, released in 2018 under then president Donald Trump, reflected the fundamental shift from a US military focused on countering extremists to one that must prepare for war with a major power.

The 2022 defence strategy increases the focus on allies as a key element of US defence, underscoring the broader Biden administration effort to repair relations with partner nations that were splintered by Trump.

At the centre of the new document is the concept of “integrated deterrence”, which means the US will use a broad combination of military might, economic and diplomatic pressures, and strong alliances – including America’s nuclear arsenal – to dissuade an enemy from attacking.

It concludes that China remains “the most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades,” while Russia remains an “acute” threat.

Since the last report, both China and Russia have become more aggressive in using their militaries. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, and China has escalated its long-standing threat to retake Taiwan, by force if necessary. And Russia, North Korea and Iran have all accelerated their nuclear weapons testing and threats.

This is the first strategy since the US ended its 20-year war in Afghanistan and withdrew all troops last year. The US still has a small number of troops in Iraq and nearly 1,000 in Syria, but has largely shifted from the counterterrorism operations that dominated the last two decades to focus on threats from major competitors such as China.

The new review calls for increased research and development on cutting-edge technologies, including hypersonics, cyber, artificial intelligence and directed energy. And in a nod to recent recruiting challenges, it says the Pentagon must change its culture to attract a skilled force.

.@SecDef : As the President’s National Security Strategy notes, the PRC is the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so. pic.twitter.com/qD7PgRmrEn

— Department of Defense 🇺🇸 (@DeptofDefense) October 27, 2022

The Pentagon also released an accompanying nuclear posture review, which underscores the growing risks of nuclear danger, particularly as the relationship between China and Russia grows.

It says the US is committed to modernising its nuclear forces while also looking at current nuclear capabilities that may no longer be needed for deterrence.

The nuclear review confirms the cancellation of the sea-launched cruise missile programme, calling it not necessary. The programme was included in the 2018 Trump administration’s posture review, but the Biden budget early this year signalled its end by eliminating its funding.

This is the first time the Pentagon’s three strategy documents – the national defence review, and those governing missile defence and nuclear posture – were developed and released at the same time.

The new focus on integrated deterrence comes as the US finds itself at a crossroads where all three legs of its nuclear-triad – submarine-launched nuclear missiles, long-range bomber aircraft and ground-based launching systems – are ageing fast and require hundreds of billions of dollars to modernise.

But the country also faces a new environment where its decades-old approach of avoiding nuclear war is changing.

Nuclear deterrence focused for decades on preventing war between just two nuclear superpowers, Russia and the United States, and relied on the concept of mutually assured destruction to prevent either side from resorting to a first strike.

Now, however, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use lower-yield “tactical” nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in response to a counteroffensive by Kyiv that has retaken swathes of land previously held by Russian troops. And Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine with its conventional forces could cause it to rely more on its nuclear forces.

“We are certainly concerned about escalation, we have been so from the very beginning of this conflict,” Austin said. “It would be the first time that a nuclear weapon has been used in over 70 years. So that certainly has the potential of changing things in the international community.”

At the same time, in the Pacific, officials say North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test, which would be the first in five years.

The report also notes China’s and Russia’s rapid gains in hypersonic missiles, which are harder for the US to detect. They are also improving their abilities to shoot down satellites, or shove them out of orbit.

The US has rushed to counter those threats by building a ring of low-orbiting satellites that aims to hasten the detection of hypersonic launches and also to build in redundancy, so if one US satellite is attacked, the remainder of the ring is still operating.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3197517/despite-russias-war-china-still-top-threat-us-pentagon-says?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3197517