中国突然公布GDP数据，第三季度经济增长3.9 - 纽约时报中文网

中国突然公布GDP数据，第三季度经济增长3.9%

China, After a Delay, Unexpectedly Releases Economic Data

上个月，北京的一个菜市场。中国周一公布的数据表明，截至9月的季度经济活动出现小幅反弹。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

China’s economy began to show faint signs of recovery in the last three months after stalling earlier this year, according to data released on Monday after a six-day delay during the Communist Party’s national congress.

北京——经过今年早些时候的停滞，周一公布的数据显示，中国经济在过去三个月有了微弱复苏的迹象。在中国共产党全国代表大会期间，经济数据推迟了六天发表 。

The country’s economic output was 3.9 percent higher from July through September than during the same months last year. The modest rebound in activity exceeded the expectations of Western economists, who had estimated growth of a little over 3 percent.

从7月到9月，中国的经济产出同比增长3.9%。经济活动的小幅反弹超出了西方经济学家的预期，他们原本估计增长率略高于3%。

The composition of the growth, however, was not entirely what China’s leaders have sought. While consumer spending began to recover following the Shanghai Covid lockdown in April and May , China remained heavily dependent on state-led, debt-fueled construction of road, bridges, rail lines and other infrastructure.

然而，带来增长的部分并不完全是中国领导人所寻求的。尽管消费者支出在4月和5月上海新冠疫情封城 后开始复苏，中国仍然严重依赖国家主导的、由债务推动的公路、桥梁、铁路线和其他基础设施建设。

The halting pace of China’s economic recovery reflects in part the ruling Communist Party’s efforts to expand its sway over the economy and society. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, consolidated his power over the weekend by pushing out rivals. Among them was the current premier, Li Keqiang, who had called an emergency meeting of more than 100,000 officials in May to sound the alarm about the need to gin up economic growth .

在一定程度上，经济复苏的缓慢步伐反映的是执政的共产党在努力扩大其经济和社会影响力。中国最高领导人习近平在周末通过赶走竞争对手巩固了权力。这些对手中包括现任总理李克强，他曾在5月份召集了一次有10多万名官员参加的紧急会议，就刺激经济增长的必要性发出了警告 。

In contrast, Mr. Xi, the party leader, has put a premium on social stability and national security, often with actions that have also had the effect of slowing economic growth and employment. In a speech at the opening of the party congress about a week ago, Mr. Xi mentioned security six times as often as he mentioned the economy.

相比之下，习近平作为党的领导人，一直重视社会稳定和国家安全，其行动也往往会产生放缓经济增长和就业的效果。在大约一周前的党代会开幕式上的讲话中，习近平提到安全的次数是经济的六倍。

“We have implemented the overall national security concept, safeguarded national sovereignty, security, and development interests with firm will and quality,” he said.

他说：“我们贯彻总体国家安全观，以坚定的意志品质维护国家主权、安全、发展利益。”

On Monday, share prices fell more than 4 percent in early trading in Hong Kong and nearly 2 percent on stock exchanges in mainland China. Mr. Xi has pushed a vision of “common prosperity,” a vaguely defined campaign of redistributing wealth that has unnerved investors.

周一，香港股市早盘下跌逾4%，中国内地股市下跌近2%。习近平推动“共同富裕”的愿景，这一定义模糊的财富再分配运动让投资者感到不安。

Mr. Xi spoke during the congress of making sure that income accrues to those who labor to earn it — an implicit rebuke to those who earn their livelihoods through trading or investment.

习近平在大会期间谈到，要坚持按劳分配——这是对那些通过交易或投资赚取生计者的含蓄斥责。

Under Mr. Xi, regulators have clamped down on the tech sector, contributing to widespread layoffs among young employees. Dozens of the country’s private property developers have defaulted on debts after Beijing discouraged real estate speculation. Tycoons have been fleeing the country . Municipal lockdowns to stop outbreaks of Covid-19 have taken a heavy toll.

在习近平治下，监管机构对科技行业进行打击，导致年轻员工遭到大范围裁员。在政府遏制房地产投机后，数十家私营房地产开发商出现债务违约。富豪们一直在逃离这个国家 。为阻止新冠暴发而进行的封城造成了严重损失。

Yeling Tan, a political scientist at the University of Oregon, said that Mr. Xi seemed more preoccupied with stability than with growth. “Economic growth has been subsumed within a broader narrative of national strength and security,” she said.

俄勒冈大学政治学家陈业灵说，习近平似乎更关注稳定而不是增长。她说：“经济增长已被纳入国家实力和安全的更广泛叙事中。”

The release of the economic data came as a surprise after it was withheld without explanation last week. It is rare for any large economy to delay the release of such an important economic report.

经济数据的公布令人意外，上周，该数据在没有解释的情况下未作公布。任何大型经济体推迟发布如此重要的经济报告都是罕见的。

The better-than-expected data suggested that the government’s motive in delaying the release was to avoid having any news last week that might distract from the party congress . Economists said that the move had compromised international confidence in the reliability of China’s economic data.

数据好于预期表明政府推迟发布的动机是避免上周出现任何可能分散党代会 注意力的消息。经济学家表示，这一延迟损害了国际社会对中国经济数据可靠性的信心。

“Dark clouds of political suspicion will undermine official Chinese statistics for years to come,” said Stephen S. Roach, a Yale economist.

耶鲁大学经济学家斯蒂芬·罗奇说：“政治疑虑的乌云将在未来几年破坏中国官方统计数据的可信度。”

The National Bureau of Statistics did not hold its usual quarterly news conference to discuss the country’s economic performance, which normally accompanies its data. Also, the statistical agency’s data release was not accompanied with the usual set of written remarks from an agency spokesman to present the government’s interpretation of the data.

国家统计局没有按惯例在发布数据同时举行季度新闻发布会，讨论中国经济表现。此外，该统计机构这次发布的数据并未像往常那样附有机构发言人的书面说明，以展示政府对数据的解释。

China’s General of Administration of Customs also released on Monday morning its trade data for September, which had been delayed by 10 days. That data showed continued strength in exports and a sharp expansion of the trade surplus as imports were little changed.

周一上午，中国海关总署也公布了9月份贸易数据，比原计划推迟了10天。数据显示出口持续强劲，由于进口几乎没有变化，贸易顺差急剧扩大。