中共高层大洗牌后，谁会对习近平说“不”？ - 纽约时报中文网

When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, led six dark-suited men onto a bright red stage on Sunday, the scale of his victory became clear as one by one he introduced the country’s new ruling inner circle. Each was an acolyte of Mr. Xi, making his grip over China’s future tighter than ever.

周日，当中国领导人习近平带领六名身穿深色西装的男子走上铺着红地毯的舞台，逐一介绍新执政核心圈子的成员，他在二十大上取得的胜利规模之大显露无疑。核心圈子里的所有人都是他的嫡系，这让他对中国未来的掌控比以往任何时候都更加牢固。

Mr. Xi’s groundbreaking third term as leader, following a weeklong Communist Party congress, was entirely expected. But even seasoned observers who thought that they had taken the full measure of Mr. Xi have been astonished by how thoroughly he shook up the party’s top tiers.

习近平在中国共产党为期一周的全国代表大会上史无前例地获得第三个任期，这完全在人们的意料之中。但就连那些有经验的中国观察人士也对中共最高层领导班子如此彻底的大洗牌感到震惊，他们曾认为自己已充分摸清了习近平的底细。

“He was dominant already and is even more dominant now,” said Dali Yang, a professor at the University of Chicago who researches Chinese politics. “He owns it.”

“他原来就占据支配地位，现在更加不可动摇了，”芝加哥大学研究中国政治的教授杨大力说。“统治地位归他独有。”

Mr. Xi has stacked the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s top body, with his loyalists. He has also appointed to the broader leadership a number of domestic security officials, military commanders, ideologues, engineers and technocrats, underscoring his ambition of accelerating China’s rise as a military and technological superpower — while keeping it under unyielding Communist Party control.

习近平把中共最高权力机构——政治局常务委员会的成员全部换成了自己的亲信。他还任命了一些国内安全官员、军队指挥官、理论家、工程师和技术专家进入了规模更大的政治局，这凸显了他加速追求让中国作为军事和技术超级大国崛起，同时将国家牢牢置于中共控制之下的野心。

For the world, this may portend a China newly energized to pursue Mr. Xi’s agenda. Beijing is likely to remain defiant in the face of international criticism of its hard-line behavior. It is seeking greater self-sufficiency in strategic technologies. It wants to become the pre-eminent military force in the region and to strongly assert its claim over Taiwan. At the congress, Mr. Xi also said that China would promote its own initiatives to solve global development and security problems.

对世界而言，这可能预示着中国在追求习近平的议程方面再添新的力量。北京可能会在国际社会对其强硬行为的批评面前保持挑衅态度。中国正在战略技术方面寻求更大的自立。它希望成为亚太地区最卓越的军事力量，并进一步强化对台湾的主权主张。习近平在二十大上还表示，中国将在解决全球发展和安全问题上推动自己的倡议。

To the party’s supporters and many people in China, Mr. Xi’s centralized control can be a strength. The party has pushed images showing how the pandemic devastated other countries. Mr. Xi has contrasted the vast mobilizing capacity of the Chinese state with what he calls the “chaos of the West.”

对中共的支持者和许多中国人来说，习近平的集权控制可以是一种实力。中共大肆宣扬 新冠病毒大流行给其他国家造成了怎样的破坏。习近平把中国政府的巨大动员能力与他所谓“西方的混乱”进行了对比。

上海街头的一块大屏幕在直播习近平的讲话，摄于上周。 Aly Song/Reuters

“A third term for Xi Jinping very much represents continuity in all of China’s current policies, unlike the United States’ flip-flopping policies,” Wang Wen , the executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies in Beijing, said in written responses to questions. “If Xi didn’t get a third term, wouldn’t the world be even more worried?”

“习近平的第三个任期在很大程度上代表着中国目前所有政策的延续，不同于美国翻来覆去的政策，”人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文 在书面回答记者的问题时写道。 “如果习近平没有获得第三个任期的话，世界不会更担心吗？”

Mr. Xi made clear that he was deeply involved in choosing the new cohort of officials. A top criterion for selection was loyalty to Mr. Xi, said an official account of the selection process that was published over the weekend. Rising officials, it said, must stay in lock step with him “in thinking, politics and action.”

习近平明确表示，他深入参与了一批新官员的挑选工作。官媒周末发表的文章 对选择过程进行了描述，首要标准是对习近平的忠诚。文章说，新上任的官员必须“在思想上、政治上、行动上”与习近平“保持高度一致”。

But investing so much power in Mr. Xi is a profound gamble. History is replete with examples of autocrats blinded by hubris and overreach after they surrounded themselves with subordinates afraid to report bad news.

但是，把如此之多的权力集中在习近平一人身上是一场巨大的赌博。历史上充满了独裁者因傲慢和不自量力败国丧身的例子，因为他们身边都是害怕报告坏消息的下属。

Mr. Xi’s decade in power has already produced examples of overstepping or disastrous foot-dragging, notably in early 2020 when local authorities initially tried to conceal evidence that Covid, then little understood, was infectious. Some scholars argue that such risks will grow now that he has cleared the Politburo of potential mavericks.

习近平执政的头十年里已经有一些贪功致败或灾难性拖延的例子，尤其是在2020年初，地方当局最初曾试图隐瞒新冠病毒人传人的证据，人们当时对这种病毒还没有多少了解。一些学者认为，这种风险将会增加，因为习近平现已在政治局中清除了潜在的独行其事者。

“That kind of pressure on people is really going to result in poor implementation of policy, at a minimum,” said Susan Shirk, a former deputy assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration and author of a new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise .”

“People won’t dare tell him the actual downsides and costs of his policies and the problems they’re creating,” she said. “Everyone is going to be competing among themselves to show how loyal they are, and they’ll end up overdoing it.”

“官员们不敢告诉习近平，他的政策实际上有不利方面，执行上有代价，并会制造新问题，”谢淑丽说。“所有的官员都将竞相展示自己的忠诚，导致他们最终会做过火。”

Even China’s censorship apparatus seemed to betray some sensitivity about the public’s response to Mr. Xi’s power. State accounts on social media turned off their comment sections or showed only upbeat reactions to the news of his new term. A few dissenting views briefly evaded the censors, some using veiled language to lament Mr. Xi’s omnipresence, others asking why Hu Chunhua, once seen as a potential successor to Premier Li Keqiang, had been shunted off the leadership team.

就连中国的审查机器似乎也泄露了公众对习近平权力的反应存在某种敏感性。社交媒体上的官方账号或关闭了评论区，或只显示对习近平新任期的报道表示乐观的评论。个别不同意见曾短暂地躲过了审查，有些人用含蓄的语言对习近平的权力无处不在表示失望，还有些人想知道为什么曾被视为李克强总理潜在接班人的胡春华被排除在了领导班子之外。

“From his qualifications and performance, he should have been promoted!” one commenter wrote. “If ability isn’t what counts, how can we revitalize?”

“以他的资历和业绩，怎么说也该进吧！”一名评论者写道。“不以能力说了算，这还怎么振兴？”

曾被外界认为有可能出任下任总理的胡春华没有进入有七名成员的政治局常委会，甚至没有进入有24名成员的政治局，这意味着他已被降级。 Iris Zhao/Reuters

Having dispensed with potential counterweights in the party’s top echelon, however, Mr. Xi may find that his biggest hazard becomes his own power, and the fact that responsibility for problems will rest even more clearly with him.

但是，在党内高层清除了潜在制衡后，习近平也许会发现，他最大的危险是他自己的权力，而问题的责任将更加明确地落在他身上。

“Xi now truly owns the system, but any mistakes will also be his — unmistakably,” said Professor Yang from the University of Chicago. “Until now, if there were some problems in the economy, he could blame it on others.”

“习近平现在是这个体制的真正主人，但任何错误也将是他的——毫无疑问，”芝加哥大学的杨大力说。“这之前，如果经济出了问题，他可以将其归咎于其他人。”

Mr. Xi began his march toward the party congress more than a year ago, exuding confidence that China had stifled Covid, allowing the country’s economic growth to surge ahead of Western competitors’. But even as the Communist Party lauded Mr. Xi, making the case for another term in power, the economy suffered a series of setbacks that at least partly reflected his miscalculations.

一年多前，习近平就开始了在二十大上取得连任的进程，他对中国已经遏制了新冠病毒、让中国经济增长得以超过西方竞争对手充满信心。但就在中共大力颂扬习近平、为他的连任提供理由时，中国经济遭受了一系列挫折，这至少部分反映了他的误判。

A two-month Covid-19 lockdown earlier this year paralyzed businesses in Shanghai and disrupted global supply chains. Economic growth in China from April through June was actually slower than in the United States.

今年早些时候，上海进行了为期两个月的新冠封城，让企业陷入瘫痪，并扰乱了全球供应链。中国经济今年4到6月的增长率实际上低于美国。

上海的一个被封住宅区，摄于今年5月。今年4、5月份进行的长达两个月的新冠封城，曾让上海的企业陷入瘫痪。 Aly Song/Reuters

Mr. Xi’s push for ever greater Communist Party control over life in China has played a role in the economic troubles. The housing market is in a slump after Mr. Xi sought to curb property speculation, which he has concluded is undermining long-term healthy growth, prompting dozens of real estate developers to default on their debts.

习近平推动共产党对中国的生活进行更大程度的控制，这是造成经济放缓的一部分原因。中国房地产市场陷入低迷的一个原因是习近平试图遏制房地产投机，他的结论是房地产投机正在破坏经济的长期健康增长。结果，数十家房地产开发商陷入债务违约。

His exceptionally stringent approach of imposing mass lockdowns and quarantines to eradicate Covid-19 outbreaks has throttled consumer spending on everything from cheap eateries to high-end jewelry.

习近平在消除新冠病毒上采取了异常严格的措施，包括大规模封控和集中隔离，结果是抑制了从廉价餐馆到高端珠宝等所有行业的消费者支出。

Entrepreneurs have fled the country , fearing regulatory crackdowns and the possibility of higher taxes as part of Mr. Xi’s egalitarian pledges to deliver “common prosperity.” He has imposed extensive restrictions on the tech and online education sectors, contributing to widespread unemployment among Chinese under the age of 25.

企业家们纷纷逃离中国 ，因为担心监管打击，也担心习近平为实现“共同富裕”的平等主义承诺，可能会把提高税收作为措施之一。习近平还对科技和在线教育行业进行了广泛的限制，导致25岁以下的中国人失业率大增。

Mr. Xi’s team already has a history of overreach on economic policy. In 2017, energy officials forced schools and apartment buildings in northeast China to rip out coal-fired boilers as part of a national campaign to reduce air pollution. But the natural gas heating systems that were to replace them were not yet ready, forcing children to endure classes in freezing temperatures .

习近平的领导班子在经济政策上有过贪功致败的历史。 2017年，作为全国减少空气污染运动的一部分，能源官员们曾强迫北方的学校和公寓楼拆除燃煤锅炉 。但替代这些锅炉的天然气供暖系统还没有准备好，结果，一些儿童不得不忍受教室里的寒冷温度。

Given Mr. Xi’s emphasis on national security and social stability, few experts expect China to return to the freewheeling business climate that accompanied rapid economic growth before he took office. On the contrary, Mr. Xi talked far more about Marxism than markets in his opening speech at the party congress.

考虑到习近平对国家安全和社会稳定的重视，很少有专家预计中国会回到他上任前的那种放任自流的商业环境，那种环境曾给经济带来了快速增长。相反，习近平在二十大开幕式的报告中提到马克思主义的次数远多与市场的次数。

北京商务区的通勤者，摄于今年8月。 Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press

Faced with the threat of crippling economic sanctions by the United States and its allies, Mr. Xi has carefully cultivated a new crop of technocrats — scientists and engineers in fields like defense and space exploration — to carry out his broader goals, such as efforts to manufacture semiconductors and commercial aircraft.

面对美国及其盟友实施严厉经济措施 的威胁，习近平精心培植了一批新的技术官僚——国防和太空等领域的科学家和工程师——以实现他的更广泛目标，例如制造半导体和商用飞机。

Top-level promotions included those of two former leaders of China’s space program, an ex-executive of one of China’s largest defense contractors and the former head of China’s nuclear safety agency. Their rise in a time of intensified strategic competition is no accident, said Joel Andreas, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University and author of “Rise of the Red Engineers.”

进入政治局的官员包括中国航天项目的两名前领导人、中国最大的武器制造商之一的前总经理，以及中国核安全机构的前负责人。这些人在战略竞争加剧的时期被提升绝非偶然，约翰霍普金斯大学社会学教授、《红色工程师的上升》(Rise of the Red Engineers)一书的作者乔尔·安德烈亚斯说。

“They’ve got to build up their own key industries including chips and aerospace,” he said, “especially because they’re no longer on friendly terms with the United States.”

“中国必须加强自己的关键产业，包括芯片和航空航天，”安德烈亚斯说，“尤其是因为中国与美国的关系不再友好。”

Among Mr. Xi’s appointees is Li Qiang, the party secretary of Shanghai, who may be China’s next premier. Mr. Li has also worked at the top level in two provinces that are pillars of the national economy, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Mr. Li’s image was tainted by the harsh lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year, but he has a reputation for competence, said Professor Yang from the University of Chicago.

习近平提拔的人当中包括上海市委书记李强，他可能会出任中国的下任总理。李强曾在浙江和江苏担任领导职务，这两个省都是国民经济的支柱。芝加哥大学的杨大力说，虽然李强的形象因今年早些时候上海的严格封城受到了影响，但关于他工作能力的口碑不错。

酒泉卫星发射中心，摄于2021年。太空探索是国家主席习近平认为对其广泛的经济发展目标至关重要的领域之一。 Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Still, even the most qualified or confident officials may eventually quake at the idea of challenging Mr. Xi’s policies. The appointment of a Standing Committee so thoroughly populated with loyalists sends a strong signal that conformity is a road to success.

尽管如此，即使是最有能力或最自信的官员，最终也可能不敢挑战习近平的政策。常委会成员全都是拥护和忠于他的嫡系，这样做发出的一个强烈信号是，遵命是通往成功之路。

One of the new entrants into the top body was Cai Qi, a longtime associate of Mr. Xi who was the party secretary of Beijing. In the capital, Mr. Cai is known for starting a divisive drive in 2017 to demolish cheap housing on the edges of the city.

政治局新常委之一是蔡奇，他是习近平的长期助手，任北京市委书记。蔡奇曾在2017年出过名，因为他发动了一场将外来务工者驱逐出首都 的有争议运动，拆除了城市边缘的廉价住房。

The ostensible reason for doing so was that the buildings were unlicensed and unsafe, but the campaign also served Mr. Xi’s demand to hold down the population of Beijing. Soon enough, the abrupt departure of tens of thousands of migrant workers created serious problems for businesses that employed them as couriers, cleaners and builders.

拆除那些房子的表面原因是没有许可证，而且不安全，但那场运动也符合习近平控制北京人口的要求。数以万计的农民工很快突然离开了北京，给一些企业带来了严重的问题，这给雇用他们做快递员、清洁工和建筑工的企业带来了严重问题。

The bulldozing epitomized the risks that have now grown for China: men who answer to the top at the expense of the citizens below. (The 24-member Politburo no longer has women either for the first time in 25 years.)

这种强行做法是中国面临越来越大风险的缩影：一群男人（本届政治局的24名成员中25年来首次不再有女性）不惜以牺牲下层公民的利益为代价听命于最高领导人。

“Xi is surrounded by yes-men,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor emeritus at Hong Kong Baptist University, “and there are not even any yes-women.”

“习近平身边都是唯唯诺诺的男人，”香港浸信会大学政治学名誉教授高敬文(Jean-Pierre Cabestan)说。“甚至没有任何唯唯诺诺的女人。”