外媒中国相关-Are the Philippines Marcos and Duterte families set to break up over South China Sea and other rows

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3258698/are-philippines-marcos-and-duterte-families-set-break-over-south-china-sea-and-other-rows?utm_source=rss_feed

Ties between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte could be at rock bottom as differences over caretaker appointments and side dealings with Beijing to manage the South China Sea row threaten to “break up” the country’s two foremost political families.

Before flying to Washington on Wednesday for a trilateral summit between the Philippines, the US and Japan, Marcos Jnr designated three caretakers to carry out presidential duties instead of just Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio as he had done so in his previous 25 foreign trips since he assumed office in July 2022.

His decision was relayed by Presidential Communications Office Chief Secretary Cheloy Garafil to reporters via text message, in which Duterte-Carpio was listed as “chair” caretaker and “assisted” by presidential Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin and Agrarian Reform Secretary Conrado Estrella III.

Marcos Jnr, meanwhile, expressed outrage at what he claimed was “a secret agreement” between the vice-president’s father and China over the West Philippine Sea.

Denying any knowledge of the matter, Marcos Jnr told reporters in an interview on Wednesday: “I am horrified by the idea that we have compromised in – through a secret agreement, the territory, the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the Philippines.

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“We don’t know, it was a secret agreement. We don’t know anything about it. There is no documentation, no record.”

Barry Gutierrez, who was a spokesman of former vice-president Leni Robredo, said: “I think the break-up [between the Marcos and Duterte families] has already happened. What we’re witnessing now is simply the forced politeness. I expect this facade to crack and the angry screaming to start soon.”

Gutierrez told This Week in Asia that the two families’ relations have “almost completely eroded” as Marcos Jnr’s appointment of three caretakers in his absence was “a very public message that VP Sara does not enjoy the same level of trust she once did within the administration”.

In an exclusive interview with This Week in Asia, Duterte’s former spokesman Harry Roque Jnr, poured scorn on Marcos Jnr’s ignorance about the matter, saying the deal was “not a secret”. Roque Jnr said when he was a congressman, he and other politicians attended a 2017 congressional hearing in which “the gentleman’s agreement” was highlighted by Duterte’s military chief Delfin Lorenzana.

Reports by media outlets including the South China Morning Post have also reported about “a modus vivendi” for Manila and Beijing to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea, Roque Jnr said.

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Marcos Jnr did not need to be briefed on a matter that was publicly known to be the Duterte administration’s policy, Roque Jnr said. “He’s horrified about something he doesn’t know? He’s really funny.”

The former congressman argued the president was “deflecting [public opinion] away from issues” that have affected his popularity such as inflation but declined to comment about relations between the two clans.

Duterte’s China stance

Political veterans told This Week in Asia that the latest developments are further signs of the irreconcilable differences between the two families.

“I think there is, and has been, a real difference in foreign policy positioning between Marcos Jnr and Duterte,” Gutierrez said.

“Marcos Jnr was always going to cleave closer to our traditional Western allies in contrast to Duterte’s pivot to China. That said, public expressions of ‘horror’ in politics always have some element of theatre to them.

“Marcos Jnr is drawing a line between himself and Duterte regarding the West Philippine Sea issue. It doesn’t hurt that a significant majority of Filipinos support a US alliance to counter Chinese aggression in the WPS,” he said.

Gutierrez noted other signs of the clans’ frosty ties such as the release from jail of former senator and justice secretary Leila De Lima, who was Duterte’s arch nemesis; the investigations of alleged sexual assault against Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, Duterte’s spiritual adviser; and Manila’s “softer stance” on the International Criminal Court’s investigation into Duterte’s drug war while he was in power.

As Duterte-Carpio remains “fairly popular”, Marcos Jnr could not just boot her out from his cabinet, according to Gutierrez.

Gutierrez said the Dutertes are unwilling to say anything that might even be “remotely construed” as criticism against Beijing. “The question must be asked, is this reluctance due to some form of benefit they are receiving from China?”

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Former senator Antonio Trillanes believed that “China is helping” the Duterte family in political matters.

The alliance between the two families “unofficially broke up” a year ago after Duterte-Carpio abruptly resigned as chair of the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats and her close ally Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was removed as deputy speaker over suspicions that she was trying to unseat the president’s cousin and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, said Trillanes.

University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Franco also noted that the bond between the clans is now “strained” but “civil”, citing a recent trip when First Lady Marie Louise “Liza” Araneta Marcos ignored Duterte-Carpio when the vice-president was waiting in line to say goodbye to the Marcoses.

The situation will become much clearer when candidates state their intention to run in next year’s congressional and local elections, including those aligned with the Marcoses and Dutertes, Franco said.