• China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: ‘blind investments’ in digital economy could be harmful, delegate says
• Malaysia’s Anwar has no problem with China, complains about US pressure at Asean summit in Australia: ‘We are independent’
• China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: doubling tax-free allowance will ‘dare people to spend’, delegate say
• Chinese tech hub Shenzhen to expedite adoption of apps built on Huawei’s HarmonyOS across various industries in 2024
• China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: Big Tech delegates call for more home-made chips and brains to advance AI development
• China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: legislature hammers home pro-business stance, says nation’s door is ‘always open to world’
• Philippines can’t deny ‘shared DNA’ with Beijing even as South China Sea sours ties: Marcos Jnr
• China county launches low bride price incentive scheme with offers of priority school choice, subsidies, move sparks online debate
• China-India ties remain adrift as wait for Chinese envoy to New Delhi drags on
• Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai turned ‘radical’ after then US president Donald Trump launched trade war with China in 2018, court hears
• As Chinese-built dams multiply, 1 in 5 Mekong fish species face extinction, report finds: ‘biggest threat is hydropower’
• China’s premier won’t meet the press after ‘two sessions’ for first time in 3 decades
• China seeks ways to revive slowing economy and salvage property market as annual congress convenes
• China Two Sessions: premier Li Qiang will not speak to press in break with tradition
• Skynet 2.0: China plans to bring largest surveillance camera network on Earth to the moon to protect lunar assets
• China’s biggest political confab is about to begin. What are the Two Sessions?
• Global Impact: China’s ‘two sessions’ rolls around at decisive moment for the world’s second-largest economy
• South China Sea: ‘stop harassing us’, Philippines foreign minister urges Beijing
• Finance lobby group calls for bolder overhaul of Wealth Management Connect scheme to boost Chinese investments
• Why China’s Red Sea diplomatic mission is unlikely to stop Houthi shipping attacks
• Singapore jails Chinese man who stabbed roommate over noisy mobile game
• [World] Can a rubberstamp parliament help China's economy?
• Philippines’ U-turn on South China Sea code of conduct a sign tensions remain stumbling block to progress
• China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: after high-level purges, will party leadership tidy up loose ends?
• Chinese state media warns against cryptocurrency trading, as domestic interest surge on bitcoin rally

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: ‘blind investments’ in digital economy could be harmful, delegate says

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254125/chinas-two-sessions-2024-blind-investments-digital-economy-could-be-harmful-delegate-says?utm_source=rss_feed

Local governments should focus on finding a competitive edge in specific sectors of the digital economy, instead of “blindly” jumping in, as China aims to find new growth points to counter pressure from the United States, according to a proposal from an economic adviser.

Lu Ming, director of Shanghai Institute for National Economy, said many local governments’ economic planning showed a lack of “awareness” in building a digital economy – an area identified by Beijing as key to growth.

“There are mid-size cities that have listed everything down as their main focus in economic development: artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, hi-tech software, IT service, 5G, Internet of Things and integrated circuit,” said Lu, who is a delegate to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) - Beijing’s top advisory body - which just kicked off its annual meetings on Monday.

“This wide-ranging and cover-it-all approach reflects that many local governments have not considered their relative competitiveness when doing their economic planning, and it lacks the awareness for building a digital economy ecosystem,” he told the Shanghai-based The Paper ahead of the start of the “two sessions”.

He said such a trend is harmful to the economy because there would be “blind investments, waste of resources and overlaps of projects”, and that central and provincial governments should come up with coordination and supervision mechanisms.

Lu’s comments came as local governments published their budget and development plans ahead of the two sessions, which refers to the annual meetings of the CPPCC and China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress.

A number of local governments plan to issue “computing vouchers” to subsidise artificial intelligence (AI) and data-process related companies.

China has faced challenges in developing home-grown cutting edge technology under an escalation of US sanctions that affect its access to advanced chip-making tools and AI processors.

‘New productive forces’: empty rhetoric, or engine for China’s future growth?

Guizhou, China’s cloud computing capital, has included a budget for 100 million yuan (US$13.9 million) of vouchers for companies to buy AI and data processing services.

Local governments have also announced plans to build AI computing centres, including a proposal last month by officials in Pingfang, a district in the northern city of Harbin, to build a 460 million yuan facility.

Up to March last year, there were over 30 cities that were building or have proposed to build AI computing centres, according to a report from the state-backed Xinhua News Agency in December.

Beijing has challenged local governments to find “new productive forces” to revitalise the economy, including green investments, the digital economy and science and technology.

Lu suggested local governments should find their competitive edge in developing the digital economy by making use of existing industrial foundations and local resources.

Governments should also distinguish areas that require an experimental and innovative approach from areas that aim to serve the public, Lu added.

“Let the market move the areas that require innovation and have the development centred among fewer enterprises and cities. The government should play a role of offering infrastructure and policy support to transform the kind of digital economy for public services,” he said.

“More developed cities are more capable of being innovative in the digital economy, those that are less developed should focus on developing the digital economy for the sake of economic transition and public good.”

Malaysia’s Anwar has no problem with China, complains about US pressure at Asean summit in Australia: ‘We are independent’

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3254148/malaysias-anwar-has-no-problem-china-complains-about-us-pressure-asean-summit-australia-we-are?utm_source=rss_feed

Malaysia’s prime minister on Monday spoke up in defence of ties with China and complained over alleged pressure by the United States and its allies on regional nations to take sides in the West’s strategic rivalries with Beijing.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s remarks came during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Australian city of Melbourne, where Anwar is one of nine Asian leaders attending the gathering.

“Right now, China seems to be the leading investor into Malaysia,” said Anwar and insisted that Malaysians “do not have a problem with China.”

‘No role’ for China in policing Pacific islands, Australian minister says

“We are an independent nation, we are fiercely independent, we do not want to be dictated by any force,” Anwar said.

“So while we remain … an important friend to the United States and Europe and here in Australia, they should not preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbours, precisely China,” he said, speaking at a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, a staunch US ally.

“If they have problems with China, they should not impose it upon us. We do not have a problem with China,” Anwar told reporters.

Anwar and Albanese announced several new bilateral agreements between Australia and Malaysia on cybersecurity, technology, clean energy, sports and education.

When asked about the term “China-phobia” that he first used in an interview last month with Financial Times, Anwar said he was responding to criticisms of Malaysia for “giving additional focus to China,” its largest trading partner.

The Philippines, an Asean nation, urged regional neighbours on Monday to stand together more strongly in upholding the rule of law in the South China Sea, where China is forcefully pursuing territorial claims in conflict with other nations.

During a visit to the Philippines in November, Vice-President Kamala Harris also urged countries to stand up for territorial integrity and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and said Washington would press an international campaign against “irresponsible behaviour” in the disputed waters.

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China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: doubling tax-free allowance will ‘dare people to spend’, delegate say

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254117/chinas-two-sessions-2024-doubling-tax-free-allowance-will-dare-people-spend-delegate-say?utm_source=rss_feed

A proposal to double China’s tax-free allowance to 10,000 yuan (US$1,389) per month would “dare people to spend”, according to delegates at the ongoing “two sessions”, with boosting consumption seen as “key to a sustained economic rebound” this year.

National People’s Congress (NPC) delegate Zhang Xuewu, who is chairman of snack giant Yanker Shop Food, told the Shanghai-based The Paper on Sunday that he would put forward the proposal to free up disposable income.

“Resuming and expanding consumption is the key to a sustained economic rebound in 2024,” Zhang said.

“[The government] should raise residents’ expectations for disposable incomes and boost consumer confidence, so that people dare to spend.”

China’s central government should take lead in consumption boost, adviser says

China’s tax-free allowance of 5,000 yuan per month has been in place since 2018.

The government should also expand tax deductions to unlock the spending power of middle-income earners, while Zhang called for an increase in the minimum wage and subsidies for low-income groups.

Consumption has been the major driver for China’s post-pandemic rebound, with the world’s second-largest economy battling an ongoing real estate crisis and a fall in external demand.

It contributed 82.5 per cent of gross domestic product growth last year, marking a 43.1 percentage point increase from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

However, lower income expectations amid a gloomy economic outlook and high youth unemployment have increased caution among consumers.

Gree Electric chairwoman Dong Mingzhu, who is also an NPC delegate, also said the tax-free allowance should be doubled.

“The 5,000 yuan threshold has been applied to our country for so many years, and it really needs to be raised,” Dong told Chinese media on Sunday.

Dong said the change could reduce the time for residents to file their tax returns and have them audited, while also eliminating the need for fraudulent tax returns.

Why China may have to ‘push harder’ to maintain its economic growth in 2024

Dong has been a deputy of China’s top legislature for five consecutive terms since 2003, and has previously proposed similar tax reforms.

“The country is now issuing many education subsidies, pension subsidies, etc. In fact, [the effect of] these subsidies almost equalled the tax threshold reaching 10,000 yuan, so why can’t [we raise the tax threshold] all at once?” she said.

China’s annual parliamentary gatherings started on Monday with a meeting of the top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

The legislative session of NPC will start on Tuesday with Premier Li Qiang’s maiden government work report.

CPPCC spokesman Liu Jieyi on Sunday cited spending increases over the Lunar New Year holiday when describing China’s economic prospects as “[having] great potential” and being “full of vitality”.

But data from the tourism ministry showed travel spending per capita over the Lunar New Year holiday remained 10 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

The holiday in February this year lasted eight days, but the figure would have fallen by 4.3 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, from 2023 and 2019, if it was adjusted to seven days as seen in previous years.

China’s disposable income per capita in 2023 stood at 39,218 yuan (US$5,449), representing an increase of 6.1 per cent from 2022, according to the statistics bureau.

Zhang also advised increasing incomes for farmers by liberalising transactions and mortgages for their properties.

Chinese tech hub Shenzhen to expedite adoption of apps built on Huawei’s HarmonyOS across various industries in 2024

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3254120/chinese-tech-hub-shenzhen-expedite-adoption-apps-built-huaweis-harmonyos-across-various-industries?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese technology hub Shenzhen, home of telecommunications equipment giant Huawei Technologies, plans to expedite the adoption of the company’s self-developed mobile operating system HarmonyOS, heating up the platform’s rivalry with Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS in the world’s largest smartphone market.

The Shenzhen municipal government intends to boost the number of its native apps built on HarmonyOS and push for their adoption across several major sectors, according to a 2024 action plan published on Sunday by the city’s Industry and Information Technology Bureau.

Under that initiative, HarmonyOS-based apps would be adopted in sectors that include government services, education, healthcare, banking and finance, transport and welfare.

Companies in Shenzhen, widely regarded as China’s Silicon Valley, are expected to account for 10 per cent of the total number of HarmonyOS-built apps on the mainland by the end of this year, according to the plan.

The municipal government will also support universities and training institutions across the city to establish HarmonyOS developer courses, and set up at least two new industrial parks for companies to develop products based on Huawei’s mobile operating platform.

Shenzhen’s move further bolsters Huawei’s strategy to widen the adoption of HarmonyOS as an alternative ecosystem on the mainland, as set out by company founder and chief executive Ren Zhengfei last year to counter the impact of US sanctions.

HarmonyOS was unveiled by Huawei in August 2019, three months after the United States government put the company on a trade blacklist that restricted it from buying chips and software that use US technologies without Washington’s approval.

The mobile operating system is used on smartphones, tablets, smart televisions, personal computers, smartwatches and various home appliances.

Huawei’s HarmonyOS tipped to beat Apple’s iOS in China in 2024: TechInsights

Shenzhen’s action plan on HarmonyOS adoption comes as Huawei climbed back to the No 1 spot in China’s smartphone market earlier this year, according to a report by research firm Counterpoint.

That resurgence was jump-started by Huawei’s surprise release last August of its Mate 60 Pro 5G smartphone – powered by its advanced Kirin 9000S processor, which was locally developed in spite of US tech sanctions, and running HarmonyOS.

While Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS will continue to dominate the global smartphone operating system arena, HarmonyOS is predicted to surpass Apple’s iOS as the second-biggest mobile operating system in mainland China this year amid the growing domestic demand for Huawei’s latest 5G smartphones.

A developer preview version of HarmonyOS Next, the latest iteration of Huawei’s mobile operating system, was made available to coders in January. It will be launched for commercial use in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Huawei.

Huawei founder Ren is focused on alternative ecosystems, such as HarmonyOS

A number of major Chinese technology companies have already moved to develop native apps based on HarmonyOS.

Internet search firm Baidu’s mapping service unit said in a statement on Monday that a software development kit for HarmonyOS Next will be made available on March 25, in the latest sign of HarmonyOS’ growing popularity on the mainland.

In January, Chinese online shopping platform operator JD.com said it will build an app based on HarmonyOS Next.

Chinese financial technology giant Ant Group said in December that it is building a new HarmonyOS version of mobile payment app Alipay. Ant Group is an affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding, owner of the South China Morning Post.

In November, e-commerce giant Alibaba said it was developing a new version of its workplace collaboration app DingTalk that is compatible with HarmonyOS.

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: Big Tech delegates call for more home-made chips and brains to advance AI development

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3254129/chinas-two-sessions-2024-big-tech-delegates-call-more-home-made-chips-and-brains-advance-ai?utm_source=rss_feed

Technology executives attending China’s biggest annual political gathering known as the “two sessions” have called for the country to make more home-grown advanced chips and train talent to help with its artificial intelligence (AI) push, according to tabled proposals.

Lei Jun, co-founder and CEO of smartphone giant Xiaomi and a delegate of the National People’s Congress, advocated in one of his four proposals that the country should strengthen AI education to drive the country’s technology and industry upgrades.

Lei said that the teaching of AI literacy should start as early as primary school, and continue throughout compulsory education, covering nine years in total.

“There is a significant lack of top AI talent [in our country] … ,” Lei wrote in his proposal, cautioning that the cultivation of AI talent would be a critical factor to upgrading China’s industries.

Lei also suggested introducing more AI-related subject studies across Chinese universities, stepping up investment in AI education and strengthening collaboration with overseas institutions.

Huawei’s AI chip prowess under scrutiny after Nvidia taps it as likely rival

Currently nearly 500 Chinese colleges offer bachelor’s degrees in AI, with around 200 institutions applying to set up similar degree studies, representing a relatively small portion of the over 3,000 Chinese colleges.

The proposals were detailed in a post published on Monday to Lei’s official WeChat account.

For every five new jobs in AI in China, there are only two qualified workers in the market, according to a report published late last year by Maimai, a careers-related social network.

Some of China’s top AI talent have chosen to work overseas. At Microsoft-backed OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, two of the 13 members on the development team for Sora – OpenAI’s text-to-video model – have been identified as coming from China.

Lei’s other proposals include stepping up the development of a green, low-carbon manufacturing supply chain, enforcing safety regulations on smart driving products, and boosting support for smart manufacturing through the integration of advanced technology.

Apart from talent issues, Cao Peng, chair of the technology committee at Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com and head of its cloud unit, noted that the country needs more home-made advanced chips, needed to train large language models (LLMs), which underpin products like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Cao is a delegate to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top advisory body. “Computing power is the foundation for training large [language] models,” Cao noted in his proposals, published on Sunday on JD.com’s official WeChat account.

Sourcing domestic facilities for computing power is a pressing national issue, according to Cao, as this will provide a controllable foundation for local LLMs in the global AI race.

The US has been strengthening its chokehold on China’s access to US technology and financing, from Nvidia’s GPUs to venture capital funding, citing national security concerns.

While accepting it is normal for fierce competition in emerging technology areas, China believes this “should follow the logic of high tech development and market economy rules”, according to Lou Qinjian, a government spokesman speaking at a ‘two sessions’ press conference on Monday.

“Attempts at decoupling, severing supply chains and building a ‘small yard, high fence’ will only impede scientific and technological advances globally, undermine global industrial development and widen the development gap,” he said.

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: legislature hammers home pro-business stance, says nation’s door is ‘always open to world’

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254134/chinas-two-sessions-2024-legislature-hammers-home-pro-business-stance-says-nations-door-always-open?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s top legislature vowed on Monday to boost business confidence and shore up the country’s economic recovery with stronger legal protections and a potential restructuring of agencies.

National People’s Congress (NPC) spokesman Lou Qinjian provided a preview of this year’s economy-related priorities on the eve of the opening session of China’s top legislature, highlighting financial reforms and support for private and foreign businesses.

“New legislations will revolve around reform agendas and institutionalise reform progress and results, enshrining them in new legislations or amendments,” Lou said at a press conference in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

A new law promoting the private sector is being crafted to tailor legislation to the most pressing needs of the key sector.

The top legislature is also set to review the first amendment to the Organic Law of the State Council in 42 years – expected to lift the role of China’s central bank in reinforcing national policies – when its sessions start on Tuesday.

Lou added that new laws and amendments would focus on opening up and high-quality development, and these look to include a new tariff law, amendments to border health and quarantine laws, and improvements to foreign-related provisions of existing laws.

“China has always adhered to a national policy of reform and opening up to develop foreign relations and exchanges and welcome foreigners and overseas enterprises,” he said. “China’s [attitude on opening up] has never faltered, nor will it change. China’s door is always open to the world, and we will never slam it shut.

“China will promote and expand its high-level opening up on the basis of the rule of law and will continuously consolidate the legal foundation.”

Lou also brushed aside concerns that China’s anti-espionage and state-secret laws would adversely affect foreign firms, saying misinterpretations fuelled concerns.

“The definition of espionage isn’t expanded but improved to better define offences with clear-cut boundaries, based on international practice to offer more certainty and security to foreigners and foreign firms,” he added. “It does not target normal activities such as business dealings and academic exchanges.

“We oppose efforts to smear and undermine China’s business environment by misinterpreting the law.”

He added that more foreign-related laws and amendments were on the cards to enhance China’s law-based business environment.

China’s foreign firms fear golden era over as Beijing aims to ‘solidify control’

China is widely expected to set a gross domestic product growth target of around 5 per cent for 2024, with the official goal due to be released during Premier Li Qiang’s address at Tuesday’s opening session.

Beijing’s assurances notwithstanding, sentiments among foreign and private sectors remain stubbornly low as the government’s pro-business messages are usually mixed with an emphasis on national security and politics.

The situation is compounded by policy unpredictability and inconsistent, arbitrary law interpretations and enforcement in different localities.

Private fixed-asset investment fell by 0.4 per cent last year, marking the first contraction since the data point was first offered in 2005.

China’s receipt of foreign direct investment, meanwhile, dropped in 2023 by 13.7 per cent, year on year, to US$163.3 billion, according to commerce authorities.

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Philippines can’t deny ‘shared DNA’ with Beijing even as South China Sea sours ties: Marcos Jnr

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3254136/philippines-cant-deny-shared-dna-beijing-even-south-china-sea-sours-ties-marcos-jnr?utm_source=rss_feed

While reiterating that his country would not surrender “a square inch” of its maritime sovereignty, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr on Monday said he was prepared to work with Beijing on challenges in the South China Sea through formal channels, in part because of their countries’ shared “Chinese DNA”.

Marcos Jnr made the comments during an address at an event in Melbourne hosted by the Lowy Institute, on the sidelines of the Asean-Australia Special Summit, but this time softened his oft-made stance by saying that Manila was determined to make its “bilateral mechanisms with China work”.

The Philippines and Australia conducted their first joint patrols in the South China Sea in November, with the aim of countering an increasingly assertive China.

South China Sea code: Philippines’ U-turn a sign tensions still hinder progress

The Philippines is one of several countries caught up in territorial conflicts with China over the disputed sea, with Manila accusing Beijing of committing aggressive acts inside the maritime boundaries of its exclusive economic zone and targeting its fishermen.

Marcos Jnr, however, said he would “not mind” if the Philippines returned to harmony with China, referencing their long history, including the establishment of bilateral relations in 1976 and their 600-year trading relationship.

“If we are to examine DNA, there are very few Filipinos with no Chinese DNA. My family actually makes much of the fact that we have, within our family tree, an infamous Chinese pirate who used to operate within the waters of the then South China Sea. That cannot be discounted,” he said.

“And that has always been part of our thinking as we look to China.”

He pointed out there were as many Chinese investments and nationals in the Philippines as there were Chinese-Filipinos who were born in China.

Marcos Jnr said despite the skirmishes in the South China Sea, the Philippines recognised China as an “important neighbour and partner”.

But working with Beijing did not mean working in a “vacuum” and so Manila would continue to upgrade the capabilities of the Philippine Coast Guard and modernise the armed forces.

Marcos Jnr said he was also supportive of Aukus, the trilateral nuclear-powered submarine security alliance between Australia, Britain and the United States, which many anti-war groups in Australia have objected to recently.

“It [Aukus] follows a very simple basic principle that a coalition is – because it has a larger base – much more robust in resisting any kind of unilateral move by any other country. I think [Aukus] strengthens the position of Asia, of Asean, of the Indo-Pacific, when we are confronted with challenges and threats,” he said.

When asked about his cultivation of warmer relations with the US, Marcos Jnr said the closeness of the two countries was also one based on history, particularly their long-time mutual defence treaty. He added that Washington’s presence in Asia-Pacific was a “stabilising force”.

But he cautioned that closeness to the US, or any other state, did not override the Philippines’ national interests.

“Let me make it very, very clear. The Philippines acts for its own interests, and the decisions that we make when it comes to foreign policy is because we believe and are convinced that it is in the national interest,” he said.

“It is not a policy that has been foisted upon us by any country. It is something that we have come to on our own, it is a conclusion that we have arrived at by ourselves.”

Marcos Jnr added that Manila’s foreign policy was one that rejected a geopolitical “regression into the old bipolar Cold War formula”, in which smaller countries like the Philippines had to choose a side.

“There are those who continue to see regional development solely from the narrow prism of great power rivalries. There are those who reduce these developments for a regional digression towards outdated Cold War paradigms,” he said.

Filipino envoy says South China Sea is the ‘real flashpoint’ in Asia, not Taiwan

Marcos Jnr cautioned against an overemphasis on and simplification of “sides”, as it would “subsume the legitimate rights and interests” of middle-power countries like the Philippines, Australia and other Asean members into the interests of so-called superpowers.

“As if we are mere pawns with no strategic agency,” he said.

“If we are to successfully navigate the treacherous waters brought about by this recent geopolitical flux, we need to clarify, and we need to have foresight, that the future of this region will be shaped not by one or two, but by many actors, and they will each demand that their voices be heard, individually, and collectively, as indeed they should be.”

Equally, he could not see any countries in the Asia-Pacific standing “idly”, passively caught up by the US-China rivalry and not taking action.

“We in the Indo-Pacific must ensure that great powers do not treat the world as an arena for their competition,” he said.

“The pursuit of the great powers’ respective strategic goals must never come at the expense of the interest of smaller states, nor of regional and international peace.”

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China county launches low bride price incentive scheme with offers of priority school choice, subsidies, move sparks online debate

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3253485/china-county-launches-low-bride-price-incentive-scheme-offers-priority-school-choice-subsidies-move?utm_source=rss_feed

A local authority in China has introduced an incentive scheme for newlywed families to cap the bride price they pay at 39,000 yuan (US$5,400), by offering them top priority in the choice of school for their children.

Chongyi county in Jiangxi province, southern China, launched the policy in an effort to prevent families splurging large amounts of money on the traditional marriage ritual.

As well as the education incentive for their unborn children, the scheme also offers a variety of favourable terms on services and other items, Jiupai News reported.

The parents of both sides of the marriage are also eligible for benefits.

In addition to their children be given preference when it comes to enrolling in local kindergarten and schools, the families will be entitled to one free physical examination at their local hospital.

They will also have access to local tourist attractions and a free bus pass for a year.

Other discounts, such as on wedding banquets, wedding photography, bedding and a water-irrigation allowance for orchards, are also available.

A certificate of honour will be given to the bride’s parents-in-law to prove that they have contributed to reforming the outdated marriage custom.

Men in China customarily pay the woman’s family an amount between 10,000 and one million yuan (US$139,000).

Despite Beijing’s efforts at reform in recent years, soaring bride prices remain a concern, especially in rural areas where there are more single men than women.

In 2022, the Zhengning government in Gansu province, northwestern China, set an upper limit for the bride price of 80,000 yuan (US$12,000) for rural families, and 60,000 yuan for public servants.

The latest official reform on bride price control triggered widespread discussion on mainland social media.

At the time of writing, a news story on the subject had 134,000 comments on Douyin.

“It’s a very human policy,” one online observer said.

“I hope the policy will be used across the country,” wrote another.

However, one father said: “I can’t accept that. The living expenses I spend on my daughter in one year are higher than 39,000 yuan.”

A mother agreed and said: “How could my daughter possibly live well if her man failed to afford the 100,000 yuan bride price?”

Stories about huge bride prices are common in China.

In June 2023, mainland social media was astonished by a video of a man in the east of the country, arriving at his engagement ceremony in an armoured vehicle loaded with 9.98 million yuan (US$1.4 million) in cash – plus gold bars – as betrothal gifts.

In the same month, a man broke up with his girlfriend after her parents demanded a bride price of 380,000 yuan (US$53,000).

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China-India ties remain adrift as wait for Chinese envoy to New Delhi drags on

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3254073/china-india-ties-remain-adrift-wait-chinese-envoy-new-delhi-drags?utm_source=rss_feed

China has been without an ambassador to India for 16 months – despite the importance Beijing attaches to its relationship with New Delhi, where foreign policy is primarily focused on its periphery and the interactions of major powers, observers said.

The post has been vacant since the most recent incumbent Sun Weidong was promoted to a foreign vice-ministership in November 2022.

The gap – the longest since 1976 – has coincided with a sharp deterioration in relations, with the two countries locked in a military stand-off since the fatal clash at their disputed Himalayan border in June 2020.

Observers said the long period without a Chinese ambassador to India was highly unusual, adding that the appointment of a new envoy would be viewed positively on both sides as a crucial step towards building trust.

Wang Dehua, an expert on India at the Shanghai Municipal Centre for International Studies, said the long absence of a top Chinese envoy had laid bare the damage caused by the border tensions to ties between the world’s two most populous nations.

China’s ambassador to India made foreign vice-minister

“That’s something very rare in the history of Sino-Indian relations, which for many is an ominous sign and makes it difficult for both sides to manage their differences, especially when ties are at a low point,” Wang said.

“While it is true that New Delhi is unlikely to ever become Beijing’s friend, China still needs to try its best to have good relations with India … or at least woo it away from the US on strategic issues, such as trade and Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. After all, the US and Japan remain our top opponents.”

According to Wang, it was “imperative” for Beijing to fill the vacancy, a move that would help China stabilise ties with its nuclear-armed Himalayan neighbour in the midst of its intensifying geopolitical and ideological feud with the US-led West, he said.

Top candidate for the post is tipped as Xu Feihong, who until December served as assistant foreign minister for administrative and financial affairs. He was removed after an almost three-year stint, without explanation or an announcement of his next position.

Hong Kong newspaper Sing Tao Daily reported rumours that the move was intended to pave the way for 59-year-old Xu, a former ambassador to Afghanistan and Romania, to take up the New Delhi posting.

And in January, Indian news site The Wire reported that Xu’s appointment as China’s envoy was being finalised, citing unnamed sources who claimed the news “has been conveyed about the candidate” to New Delhi.

China-India border dispute: its origins and impact

Neither Beijing nor New Delhi has confirmed the appointment.

Liu Zongyi, a senior fellow with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ South Asia and China Centre, said an early appointment would be much-needed good news to help arrest further decline in the already strained ties.

Despite his lack of direct involvement in managing Indian affairs, compared to Sun and his predecessor Luo Zhaohui, Xu would be a good candidate for the role, according to Liu.

Both Sun, currently foreign vice-minister in charge of Asian affairs, and Luo have extensive regional experience, including stints as China’s top envoy to Pakistan, and are considered experts in South Asian affairs.

But Liu pointed out that Xu – who served as China’s ambassador to Afghanistan from 2010-13 – would not be the first top envoy to New Delhi to lack direct experience with the South Asian nation.

Luo’s predecessor Le Yucheng – a Russian expert who was posted to India in 2014, shortly ahead of President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to New Delhi – did not have any Indian experience either, he said.

On return to Beijing after their stints in India, Luo and Sun were both promoted to foreign vice-minister positions, while Le served as deputy to China’s then top ranking diplomat Yang Jiechi, also a vice-ministerial role.

Liu said that all three former Chinese ambassadors had been serving as assistant foreign ministers when they got the New Delhi job, putting Xu’s appointment in line with past arrangements, if confirmed.

But he cautioned against expectations of a quick turnaround in Sino-Indian ties, which were at a “critical juncture”, amid signs of further geopolitical division between them on top of their border impasse and in the midst of intensifying US-China rivalry.

“I don’t think the border dispute is too complicated to be resolved, and the key is whether both sides are able to demonstrate their willingness to work together towards a mutually acceptable solution, especially on the part of New Delhi,” Liu said.

“But even if the border issues can be resolved, I am not optimistic that bilateral ties could be improved any time soon.”

China, India court Global South in competing bids to lead developing countries

According to Liu, Beijing is also concerned about India’s hyping of China as a threat and its increasingly restrictive policies against Chinese investment, as New Delhi seeks to decouple economically from its neighbour and replace it in the global supply chain as the world’s factory.

Xu’s previous experience in financial affairs may prove useful if the veteran diplomat is posted to New Delhi, Liu said.

A Bloomberg report this week said a study by London-based Fathom Financial Consulting found that India has made headway in its efforts to increase its market share of electronics exports – through tax cuts and other incentives – previously dominated by China.

China doesn’t want to rock the boat, but India trade tensions may continue

The two countries wrapped up another round of commander-level border talks last week, seeking a mutually acceptable solution “at the earliest possible time” in a bid to “turn the page” on the tensions, the Chinese defence ministry said.

Beijing expressed similar hopes in December, at the start of this latest round of diplomatic talks with New Delhi on the border issues.

However, after 21 rounds of military-level talks and 28 rounds of diplomatic dialogue, there is little sign of any quick solution, let alone “a complete disengagement” of Chinese and Indian troops along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh.

China, India hope to ‘turn the page’ on Himalayan border tensions

Neither side appears ready to back down on the highly-charged border issues, with Beijing and New Delhi each accusing the other of stalling the situation.

Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen a decisive tilt towards Washington, elevating military ties and accelerating partnerships with the US, Japan and Australia through the Quad – slammed by Beijing as an “Indo-Pacific Nato”.

While Xi and Modi briefly discussed the border situation in August on the sidelines of the Brics summit – their first direct conversation in a year – bilateral ties have largely remained deadlocked.

In a move widely seen as a snub to New Delhi, Xi skipped the Group of 20 summit in India in September, after Modi refused to support Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative at the virtual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in July.

Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai turned ‘radical’ after then US president Donald Trump launched trade war with China in 2018, court hears

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3254089/hong-kong-media-tycoon-jimmy-lai-turned-radical-after-then-us-president-donald-trump-launched-trade?utm_source=rss_feed

Hong Kong’s Jimmy Lai Chee-ying turned “radical” after the US launched a trade war with China in 2018 under the administration of then president Donald Trump, a former top aide has told the media tycoon’s national security trial.

Former editorial writer Yeung Ching-kee explained what he considered to be Lai’s shift in stance as he took the witness stand on Monday to help prosecutors secure his former boss’s conviction.

Yeung, who had written articles for Apple Daily under the pseudonym “Li Ping”, suggested the tycoon’s business acumen prompted him to change the now-defunct tabloid’s editorial approach in response to strained US-China ties.

“I felt Mr Lai was once a successful businessman who had a very good grasp of the needs and changes in the market,” Yeung told West Kowloon Court.

“So he felt that after the international [political] landscape had changed, the way we approached news and commentary articles should also change accordingly.”

The defendant turned prosecution witness highlighted a discussion he had with Lai following a speech by then US vice-president Mike Pence at the Washington-based Hudson Institute in October 2018.

Hong Kong judge questions whether Lai’s ‘supportive words’ proof of conspiracy

Yeung said Lai felt the United States was “flipping the table” and trying to steer its allies away from Beijing by waging “not just a trade war, but a full-scale war” over trade.

The US-China trade war began on 6 July 2018, when the US placed 25 per cent duties on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, the first in a series of tariffs imposed during 2018 and 2019.

It continued to escalate, with the US and China imposing various tariffs on products imported from the other country until both sides signed a phase-one trade deal in 2020. But tensions over trade have continued to feature prominently in relations between the two countries.

Lai radicalised Apple Daily after the 2019 anti-government protests and Beijing’s imposition of the national security law on the city in 2020, the witness said, adding the tycoon no longer required the tabloid to maintain a balanced view in its news coverage.

Jimmy Lai had final say on Apple Daily’s reportage, Hong Kong court hears

Lai, 76, has denied two conspiracy charges of collusion with foreign forces under the national security law, as well as a third count of conspiracy to print and distribute seditious publications under colonial-era legislation.

The court earlier heard the evidence of Apple Daily publisher Cheung Kim-hung and associate publisher Chan Pui-man, who both pleaded guilty to conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and agreed to testify for the prosecution in exchange for lesser sentences.

As Chinese-built dams multiply, 1 in 5 Mekong fish species face extinction, report finds: ‘biggest threat is hydropower’

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3254057/chinese-built-dams-multiply-1-5-mekong-fish-species-face-extinction-report-finds-biggest-threat?utm_source=rss_feed

Unsustainable development threatens the health and diverse fish populations of the Mekong river, with one-fifth of fish species in Southeast Asia’s main artery facing extinction, a report by conservation groups said on Monday.

The Mekong, stretching nearly 5,000km (3,000 miles) from the Tibetan Plateau to the South China Sea, is a farming and fishing lifeline for tens of millions of people in China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.

Threats to its fish include habitat loss, conversion of wetlands for agriculture and aquaculture, unsustainable sand mining, introduction of invasive species, worsening climate change and hydropower dams fragmenting the flow of the river and its tributaries, according to the report compiled by the WWF and 25 global marine and wildlife conservation groups.

“The biggest threat right now, and a threat that’s still potentially gaining momentum, is hydropower development,” said fish biologist Zeb Hogan, who heads the USAID-partnered Wonders of the Mekong, one of the groups behind the report.

Dams alter the flow of the world’s third-most biodiverse river, change water quality and block fish migration, he said.

Proliferating Chinese-built hydroelectric dams upriver have blocked much of the sediment that provides essential nutrients to tens of thousands of farms in the Mekong River Delta, Reuters reported in 2022.

How dams in China are destroying livelihoods downstream in Cambodia

Some 19 per cent of the 1,148 or more fish species in the Mekong are heading towards extinction, said the conservationists’ report, “The Mekong’s Forgotten Fishes”, adding that the number may be higher as too little is known about 38 per cent of the species to gauge their conservation status.

Among those facing extinction are 18 species listed as “critically endangered” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, including two of the world’s largest catfish, the world’s largest carp and the giant freshwater stingray.

“Some of the largest and rarest fish … anywhere on earth occur on the Mekong River,” Hogan said.

Fish depletion in the Mekong – which accounts for more than 15 per cent of the world inland catch, generating over US$11 billion annually – could harm food security for at least 40 million people in the Lower Mekong basin whose livelihood depends on the river, the report said.

Hogan said it was “not too late” for countries in the delta to coordinate efforts to reverse the adverse impacts on the fish population.

“If we take action, collectively take action, to develop the river sustainably, there’s still hope,” he said.

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China’s premier won’t meet the press after ‘two sessions’ for first time in 3 decades

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3254098/chinas-premier-li-qiang-wont-meet-press-after-two-sessions-first-time-3-decades?utm_source=rss_feed

For the first time in three decades, the Chinese premier will not host a press conference at the end of the annual parliamentary sessions, which began in Beijing on Monday.

The practice will also be scrapped for future years of the current National People’s Congress’ term barring exceptional circumstances, said Lou Qinjian, spokesman for the NPC, China’s top legislative body.

The press conference – first held in 1988 and established as a customary practice in 1993 – is one of the most anticipated events of the annual “two sessions”, when the top political advisory body and legislature meet.

It is one of the rare occasions when a top Chinese leader takes questions from local and international media. Those questions are often tightly scripted and chosen in advance, but it offers the outside world a chance to hear directly from a top Chinese leader on policy directions.

In particular, it has been seen as a platform for China to indicate its diplomatic priorities, not only in terms of the questions selected but also which country’s media they come from.

It also makes the premier a more familiar face globally than other Chinese leaders – including the president and Communist Party secretary – who seldom talk directly to outside media.

But Lou said that after a review, the leadership had decided to scrap the press conference since it often overlapped with similar events during the two sessions.

Premier Li Qiang will deliver the government work report to the NPC on Tuesday morning, followed by two written reports from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance outlining plans and the budget.

“It should be said that society’s major concerns have been specifically addressed in the [government] reports,” Lou said on Monday. “They will be publicised so that the media and the public can learn about their content easily.”

There will be at least three press conferences during the two sessions, including one given by Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Why China will avoid talking about US election during ‘two sessions’

Observers said that while the change might come as a surprise, it was in line with China’s political development.

“The party’s leadership has been firmly established over the past decade. The State Council’s role is now mainly about implementing the party’s decisions,” according to veteran China watcher Wang Xiangwei, a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post.

“The role and status of the premier, who heads the State Council, is therefore adjusted accordingly.”

He said that was already reflected in arrangements for state leaders meeting the chief executives of Hong Kong and Macau on duty visits.

Previously the two chief executives would hold separate meetings with the president and the premier. But in recent years, they have reported only to the president, with the premier sitting in on the meeting.

“It is also a reflection of Li Qiang’s pragmatism. He focuses on major policy directions, which are all clearly spelled out in his work report,” Wang said.

“He doesn’t think an additional press conference is necessary as the ministers are in a better position to elaborate on detailed policies, and they will all have press conferences.”

But he said the Chinese leadership could bring back the practice in future if it was deemed necessary.

The ‘two sessions’: what to watch for during China’s biggest political event of the year

Another observer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, agreed it reflected the change in power dynamics in China.

“The premier’s job is now mainly to do with the economy and social affairs. However, the questions asked at the presser are usually about foreign affairs and China’s grand strategy,” the observer said.

“It would be strange for Li to answer those questions as foreign affairs are increasingly centralised in the hands of the party chief, President Xi Jinping.”

While the foreign minister nominally reports to the premier, Wang stepped into the role from a higher rank after Qin Gang was sacked from the job without explanation in July. Wang reports directly to Xi.

The observer said Li could also have decided not to hold the press conference as a way to show loyalty to Xi, so that more focus is on the president.

But Wang said there could be a negative impact.

“This is still the only opportunity for a top Chinese leader to have live televised interaction with foreign media. Even though it is a highly scripted event, it offers everyone who is interested in China – particularly foreign investors – to hear directly from the Chinese leadership,” he said.

“This will be an opportunity missed for China to explain itself, and it may increase the perception of China’s lack of transparency.”

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the change was also likely to be part of revisions made by the cabinet to its work rules a year ago.

He noted that the amended version of the related law would likely be endorsed during the NPC session.

“[This] clearly shows the fundamental changes in China’s party-government relationships in the past few years,” he said.

The revisions state that the cabinet will closely follow instructions from the party leadership and remove provisions related to government transparency.

“It will have only taken a year from the revision of the internal work rules to the revision of the guiding law,” Wu said. “Li Qiang is certainly pushing this very hard to show his loyalty.”

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China seeks ways to revive slowing economy and salvage property market as annual congress convenes

https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-congress-property-xi-jinping-a804bc4d0d9157fea88bef85b4d5e1afA young couple walk by a construction site near office buildings in the Central Business District in Beijing on March 2, 2024. China's efforts to restore confidence and rev up the economy will top the agenda during this month’s meeting of the ceremonial national legislature.(AP Photo/Andy Wong)

2024-03-04T06:34:46Z

BEIJING (AP) — It’s clear that China’s efforts to build confidence in its slowing economy will top the agenda of this week’s meeting of its ceremonial national legislature.

What remains unclear is how the ruling Communist Party can navigate toward stronger, sustained growth as China’s workforce is aging, relations with Washington are fraught, and housing construction — a main driver of the economy — is in crisis.

Hopes for a strong, consumer-led recovery after severe anti-virus controls ended in late 2022 have not been fulfilled. Local governments are mired in trillions of dollars of debt and direct investment by foreign companies in China fell by about 80% last year.

As more than 5,000 leaders from across China gather in Beijing for the year’s biggest political events, the mood on the streets and in financial markets remains glum.

That’s in contrast to official messaging as the country marks 75 years from the People’s Republic founding in 1949.

“We are confident of consolidating and enhancing the recovering and growing trend of the economy,” the party newspaper People’s Daily wrote in a commentary Saturday.

“We are fully capable of turning pressure into a driving force, accumulating and turning advantages into victorious trends and steering the advance of the great ship of the economy while braving wind and waves,” it added.

For videographer Wang Tao, the question is what the leadership will do about jobs. At 41, he’s struggling to find work in a labor market where companies tend not to hire anyone over 35.

“At first I thought it was difficult only for older people like me, but later I found out that many young people … are having a hard time finding work,” Wang said. “The general employment situation is grave.”

The congress endorses decisions already made by top leaders, providing a platform to publicize government plans and instruct officials on what they should do back home.

China’s most powerful leader in decades, Xi Jinping, will preside. He has installed loyalists in top posts to strengthen the party’s control over the economy and society. Xi, 70, is in his third five-year term as party general secretary and may hold that post for life.

Premier Li Qiang is expected to announce an official economic growth target when the National People’s Congress convenes Tuesday in Beijing’s ornate Great Hall of the People. State media suggest it will be about 5%, on par with last year’s 5.2% growth.

Many economists are forecasting much slower growth of 4% or less. In 2022, it dipped to 3%, the second-lowest level since at least the 1970s.

Li’s annual work report will include plans for “promoting high-quality development and advancing Chinese modernization,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Many in China are hoping that will mean more government spending, said Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm.

“Everyone will be watching for whether there is significant fiscal stimulus on offer,” Wright said. But spending alone won’t suffice. “The time to solve the short-term problems and prevent them from becoming long-term problems is now. So what is the plan?” Wright said.

The downturn in the property market followed a crackdown on excess borrowing by real estate developers. Dozens since have defaulted on their debts. The largest, Country Garden, faces liquidation proceedings. Another, China Evergrande, is being liquidated with more than $300 billion in debt.

Plunging tax revenues from property sales are also weighing on the financial system. To encourage more property lending, the central bank has cut its five-year prime loan rate. Many cities have relaxed controls on property deals imposed earlier to cool price bubbles, and some 6,000 property projects have been green-lighted for lending.

“The property market has been such a significant source of China’s growth and now it has gone into reverse,” Wright said, though he noted there are signs the market is stabilizing. “If you look at how China is responding to this, it is indicative of a more severe slowdown than what the official data would suggest.”

The problems deepened with shocks from the pandemic, when anti-virus controls led some cities into weekslong shutdowns and factories ended up with huge backlogs. Now, instead of soaring prices, China is trying to fend off a potentially debilitating cycle of deflation, or chronically falling prices.

Exports, another main driver of growth, dropped in 2023 for the first time in seven years, even as the U.S. economy remained defied forecasts that it would fall into recession.

Despite official indications that China’s yearslong anti-monopoly and data security crackdowns on technology companies have ended, entrepreneurs are jittery. Many small businesses complain they cannot collect on bills owed to them, and bankruptcies have soared.

Meanwhile, global companies have been shifting investments to countries like India and Vietnam to minimize risks from China-U.S. political tensions and the party’s tighter domestic controls, in some cases raiding the Chinese offices of foreign businesses.

“The system is not that transparent and the lack of transparency creates a lot of uncertainty,” said James Zimmerman, a lawyer and former head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. That’s particularly true when it comes to issues of national security, he said, where just conducting research for due diligence can land people in jail.

Xi’s talks with President Joe Biden and U.S. business leaders at a regional summit in San Francisco in September conveyed the message that “China is open for business,” Zimmerman said, “but there was nothing in there in his presentation that got to specifics about what reform and what type of changes are going to happen, you know, to give people the comfort level.”

These challenges come at a time of transition.

China’s workforce has been shrinking for over a decade, putting pressure on an economy that still relies on labor-intensive industries. With housing prices falling and stocks prices limping along, even middle-class families are scrimping rather than spending.

“Spending power is worse than before, probably because we didn’t make money during the pandemic,” said Jiang Yingjie, a salesperson in Beijing.

One strategy would be to shift more national wealth into workers’ pockets, says Michael Pettis, a leading expert on the Chinese economy and professor at Beijing University.

“The problem in China has been the same problem for the last 10 years ... and that is that domestic demand driven by consumption is very weak,” he said. Meanwhile, excess investment in construction is yielding diminishing returns.

“So this year is really a year in which they try to figure those imbalances out. They want to raise consumption. But it’s very hard to do that because that involves a major redistribution of income,” Pettis said.

Worries that China may try to export its way out of its troubles are already raising alarm in the U.S. and Europe, as Chinese banks step up lending to manufacturers of electric vehicles, solar panels and many other industrial products. The issue already features highly in talks between Beijing and Washington.

“If you manufacture more and more and you don’t consume it, then you need trade surpluses to absorb it,” Pettis said.

Some Chinese localities are trying another approach, creating affordable housing programs that invest in unoccupied apartments. Such a move can counter growing inequality and free up more income for spending.

“I think it has to be a combination of short and longer-term measures.,” said Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global. “I think anything that can be done to pump momentum into the economy will be helpful.”

___

Associated Press video producer Wayne Zhang contributed to this story.

DAKE KANG Kang covers Chinese politics, technology and society from Beijing for The Associated Press. He’s reported across Central, South, and East Asia, and was a Pulitzer finalist for investigative reporting in China. twitter mailto ELAINE KURTENBACH Based in Bangkok, Kurtenbach is the AP’s business editor for Asia, helping to improve and expand our coverage of regional economies, climate change and the transition toward carbon-free energy. She has been covering economic, social, environmental and political trends in China, Japan and Southeast Asia throughout her career. twitter mailto

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China Two Sessions: premier Li Qiang will not speak to press in break with tradition

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/04/china-two-sessions-premier-li-qiang-will-not-speak-press-conference-npc-cppcc

China’s major annual political gathering has begun in Beijing, to discuss and approve the ruling Chinese Communist party’s policy direction for the year.

But amid major economic headwinds, decreasing transparency on government indicators, and growing concern among international business and investors, on Monday it was revealed the country’s leading economics official, premier Li Qiang, would no longer meet with or speak to the press.

The Two Sessions are so named for the near-simultaneous gathering of two political bodies: China’s rubber-stamping parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and the political consultative body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Attended by thousands of delegates and journalists, the meetings set and reveal the national agenda for the all-powerful CCP.

They are highly orchestrated, and all public engagements stick closely to the party’s policy and political narrative.

At a press conference on Monday, spokesperson for the NPC, Lou Qinjian, revealed that in a break with tradition, Li would not give a press conference at the end of the meeting, or at any of the NPC sessions this year. The press conferences were one of the few opportunities for foreign press to engage with the high ranking official.

Lou also revealed that current vacancies in the state council – China’s cabinet – and central military commission will remain vacant for some time, with no personnel appointments to be announced during the Two Sessions.

Speculation around the fates of Qin Gang, the former foreign minster, and Li Shangfu, the former defence minister, has swirled since the two men were mysteriously removed without explanation, leaving vacancies on the state council. Li’s vacancy may be filled by his replacement as defence minister, Dong Jun. But it is far from certain that Dong or any new foreign minister – as Qin’s predecessor Wang Yi is thought to have returned only temporarily – will be appointed to the state council.

Lou also addressed recent changes to espionage laws which have drawn concern from the international business community, over broadened definitions and bans on the transfer of any information related to “national security”. Law enforcement raids and arrests, including on due diligence analysis firms, have sparked warnings of increased risk to foreign businesses and their employees in China.

But at Monday’s press conference he said this was a “misinterpretation of the counter-espionage law” which “denigrated” China, and that China was still committed to “reform and opening up”, particularly to business exchange and cooperation.

“Based on common international practices … it has actually refined the definition of espionage activities and made clear the line between legal and illegal activities.”

“It does not target normal business activities, research work, or professional exchanges,” Lou said. “China’s door remains open to the world and its door will not shut.”

Asked about China’s defence budget, given increasing tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the spokesperson said only that a draft would be reviewed by the NPC.

He said China had made reasonable and steady growth of defence spending, in line with defence capability and economic strength.

“China is committed to the path of peaceful development,” he said.

Lou also dismissed criticism of China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the region, particularly in the South China Sea – over which it holds massive and widely disputed territorial claims – saying China was a good neighbour and cooperative friend.

The CPPCC opens on Monday and the NPC opens on Tuesday. All events will wrap up by the 11 March.

On Sunday a CPPCC spokesperson, Liu Jieyi, said that “economic topics are of great concern” to the body’s over two thousand members.

So too was “the employment of young people, especially fresh graduates”, he said, with youth unemployment officially at about 15% at the end of 2023, after the statistics bureau adjusted its calculation methods.

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Skynet 2.0: China plans to bring largest surveillance camera network on Earth to the moon to protect lunar assets

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3254054/skynet-20-china-plans-bring-largest-surveillance-camera-network-earth-moon-protect-lunar-assets?utm_source=rss_feed

China plans to establish all-seeing surveillance on the moon after drawing on the successes of the country’s massive video surveillance network, Skynet, for a system it says will ensure the security of its forthcoming lunar base.

Agencies behind the project say the lessons of Skynet will inform how they build and operate the optical surveillance system for China’s lunar research station.

Skynet, or Tianwang, is the world’s largest video surveillance network, with more than 600 million cameras, averaging one camera for every two adult Chinese citizens and covering virtually every nook and cranny of the country.

“The construction and operation of the optical surveillance system for the (International) Lunar Research Station can draw on the successful experience … of China’s Skynet project,” the Lunar Exploration and Space Engineering Centre of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) said in a paper published in the Chinese academic journal Acta Optica Sinica on February 22. CNSA is China’s equivalent to Nasa.

The co-authoring organisations – which also include the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and Zhejiang University – are the main agencies that manage and execute China’s lunar programme and play a significant role in setting technical standards.

China’s lunar version of Skynet will comprise a large number of high-performance security cameras operating in visible light or infrared zones.

These cameras, mostly weighing just 100 grams (3.5 oz) each, will be equipped with AI-driven chips “capable of identifying, locating, tracking and aiming at suspicious targets independently”, according to the paper.

It said that if “abnormalities” were detected the system would “promptly generate alarm signals and initiate appropriate response measures”.

The paper did not specify what those measures might be.

After arriving on the moon in batches, the cameras would automatically connect to each other, achieving seamless coverage of the station area, according to the paper.

The proposed lunar research station, with a radius more than 6km (3.7 miles), is a sprawling complex larger than a Disney theme park. It will house a command centre, power station, communication hub, scientific facilities and a fleet of robots.

The station will even have its own satellites for remote sensing, navigation and communication.

To ensure its long-term stability and safety, decision-makers believe a robust monitoring system is a must and say certain critical zones may even require continuous, 360-degree surveillance.

For outstanding events such as the arrival and departure of spacecraft carrying international astronauts, the system may provide multi-camera, high-definition live-streams to Earth. The authors said this would not only enhance the station’s operational efficiency but also solidify China’s position as a leading space power.

Among challenges created by the system, the vast amount of data generated by the cameras will test its bandwidth and data processing capabilities.

To overcome these hurdles, Chinese scientists and engineers are leaning on their experience with the terrestrial Skynet project, where they have developed advanced technologies for efficient data transmission and processing under constrained bandwidth conditions.

In 2024, China plans 100 rocket launches to send 300 spacecraft into orbit

Despite its controversial namesake – the malevolent AI from The Terminator movie franchise – the Skynet system is rooted in an ancient Chinese proverb that embodies the principle of omnipresent justice.

“There is forever a net in the sky, with large mesh but letting nothing through,” the proverb goes. It means that the law is all-seeing and wrongdoers will eventually face retribution.

In this context, China sees the lunar Skynet as part of its commitment to safety, security, and transparency in the ambitious moon exploration programme.

Critics contend that Skynet tramples on human rights and privacy. In a notable incident in Changsu in Jiangsu province in October, several Yushan park administrators lost their jobs for posting a surveillance video online that revealed a young couple’s intimate moment in the woods.

Still, a considerable number of Chinese residents believe Skynet’s presence has made their country one of the safest in the world. In megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations exceeding 20 million, robbery and murder cases are rare and that for many years, the police have solved 100 per cent of crimes, according to the Ministry of Public Security.

Bringing Skynet to the moon will not be an easy task. According to CNSA requirements, a lunar surveillance camera must have a minimum lifespan of 10 years.

During that time, they must withstand the onslaught of high-energy particles in the space environment while functioning across extreme temperature fluctuations from above 100 degrees Celsius during lunar days to as low as minus 180 Celsius during lunar nights.

Despite their compact size, the lunar cameras are expected to perform myriad tasks, including capturing both distant and wide-angle views and they must be able to self-adjust and operate independently if communication with Earth is lost.

Chinese space authorities hope leading Chinese technology companies, including smartphone manufacturers, can help research and develop a surveillance system whose challenges include lens design, chip technology, protective materials, optical systems, communication protocols and AI algorithms.

The lunar Skynet must also be fortified against potential external threats, whether from other nations or terrorist organisations with security standards that may exceed those for terrestrial systems.

“Ensuring confidential communication between the various optical detection terminals and the central control hub represents a significant engineering hurdle,” the authors wrote in the paper.

“The encryption techniques employed for signal transmission and streaming media must be resilient against the interference caused by the intense electromagnetic radiation prevalent in deep space. The data must not be damaged or stolen,” said the paper.

“It underscored the need to establish a new set of standards tailored to the unique operational demands of deep-space missions, thereby ensuring the integrity and security of mass-produced optical surveillance terminals.”

In the new moon race under way, both China and the United States have outlined plans to establish international bases at the moon’s south pole. They are envisioned as the cornerstones of future lunar exploration efforts and participation from other nations is being sought.

Scientific speculation suggests water ice exists in the permanently shadowed craters of the lunar south pole.

However, the limited and potentially concentrated nature of these water resources has led to concerns they may become the focus of competition and potential conflict among spacefaring nations.

China’s lunar base: major African nation joins international moon project

Published research and discussions at international academic forums highlight the possibility that the Chinese and American lunar bases may be near each other, potentially even sharing the same crater.

International law prohibits the deployment of weapons on the lunar surface and both China and the US have reiterated that their lunar exploration programmes are strictly peaceful in nature.

However, the lack of a clear regulatory framework governing potential differences and conflicts between the two camps remains a significant concern.

China’s biggest political confab is about to begin. What are the Two Sessions?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/two-sessions-china-beijing/2024-02-28T22:13:27.290Z

BEIJING — China is facing a tricky year ahead, with economic growth slowing, the population — and more importantly, the workforce — shrinking, markets in turmoil and tensions with the United States remaining high. The American presidential campaign will probably see an increase in anti-Beijing sentiment.

How will the ruling Communist Party deal with these challenges? We will get a good handle on policies and approaches when the “Two Sessions” begin in Beijing this week.

The meetings will probably last about nine days and will see about 5,000 delegates from around the country descend on the Great Hall of the People — the palatial building on one side of Tiananmen Square — many of them wearing the traditional dress of their people. The event is high on pomp and ceremony, and also on control: Traffic is rerouted and security is dramatically tightened.

The political proceedings will be highly choreographed, with most of the decisions having already been made by Communist Party leaders in advance, but the events give those leaders an opportunity to declare their intentions to the country. They’re also closely watched by outside observers looking for clues about the direction in which China is heading.

It’s particularly important this year because China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, is struggling. Li Qiang, the new premier and a loyal lieutenant of leader Xi Jinping, will give his first government “work report,” setting out the Communist Party’s growth target and economic strategy, as well as foreign policies.

What is the ‘Two Sessions’?

The Two Sessions, or “lianghui” in Chinese, is the annual gathering of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), the rubber-stamp legislature, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body without legislative power.

According to the Chinese constitution, the lawmaking NPC is the highest organ of state power. But real decision-making authority remains firmly in the grasp of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo and its seven-member standing committee.

The NPC session involves nearly 3,000 delegates, mostly officials and Communist Party members, who will ratify legislation, finalize personnel reshuffles and approve the government budget for the year. This year’s meeting kicks off Tuesday and is expected to last about a week.

The 2,000-odd representatives to the CPPCC meet at the same time in the same place to offer policy suggestions, although their input rarely translates into significant shifts in policy.

Bringing in business leaders, celebrities and other influential people from outside the party elite as representatives is meant to show engagement with the broader society. Previous delegates have included NBA star Yao Ming and actress Gong Li.

Why do these meetings matter?

While laws pass with overwhelming majorities, the Two Sessions are where Beijing signals its priorities for the year. They may be scripted, but the meetings are often a vehicle for important announcements.

It was at previous Two Sessions meetings that China formally ended the one-child policy, revealed plans to pass a “national security law” to curb dissent in Hong Kong, and removed term limits for the presidency, clearing the way for Xi to rule for life should he choose to.

Li, the premier, is heading the meeting for the first time since being appointed in last year’s session. He will open the proceedings Tuesday with a speech that sums up the past year and sets priorities for the year ahead.

It is here that important economic goals are revealed, including the closely watched gross domestic product target. Li is in effect giving the country’s sprawling bureaucracy its marching orders.

After a week of meetings — where lawmakers (nominally) debate the policies and (more often) praise the top leadership — the work report is passed, usually with only cosmetic changes. The delegates also vote on laws and bills drawn up in advance by the top leadership.

Everything passes, although sometimes there are delays or symbolic protest votes when delegates want to signal displeasure with controversial policies.

In 2013, almost a third of delegates voted against a new lineup for the Environmental Protection and Resources Conservation Committee out of protest over the government’s poor handling of air pollution. The appointment went ahead, though that opposition slowed a later revision of the environmental protection law.

Delegates also use a system of proposals to publicly raise pet issues, with policy solutions ranging from practical ideas, such as reforms to parental leave or raising minimum wages for gig workers, to nationalist grandstanding over issues like cutting English lessons from the school curriculum.

What is special about this year?

Xi’s historic third term, which officially began in March last year after he broke norms of succession and stacked the top leadership with his political acolytes, has had a rocky start.

China’s ending of harsh “zero covid” restrictions did not result in the anticipated economic rebound, shaking confidence and weakening its stock markets, which began the year with a 10 percent slump.

The Chinese economy expanded by 5.2 percent last year, and many analysts expect Li to set a growth target of around 5 percent for 2024, an ambitious goal given the property market weakness and insipid consumer demand.

While that is high compared with developed economies, it is already far lower than the more than 6 percent target of five years ago — and a far cry from the 10 percent mark recorded before Xi came to power in 2012.

This year’s legislative meeting is a chance for the Chinese leadership to show it has a plan to prevent a sudden economic slowdown. Li is expected to unveil stronger stimulus measures and more government spending.

The reality of the slowdown, driven primarily by a shrinking real estate sector that still accounts for a fifth of the economy, has led some Chinese economists to suggest scrapping an economic target altogether, which they fear helps fuel unsustainable levels of debt.

What about China’s view of the world?

Pronouncements from top leaders are also watched closely for subtle shifts in language that may signal more military aggression toward Taiwan, the island democracy of 23 million that Beijing claims as its territory.

In the latest example of these pressure tactics, the Chinese coast guard has in recent weeks started to patrol near Taiwan’s outlying island of Kinmen after a Chinese fishing boat capsized while being chased from Taiwanese-controlled waters.

The meeting could unveil a new Chinese foreign minister, too.

Qin Gang, who was chosen as the face of Chinese diplomacy in December 2022, disappeared after only six months on the job and was removed from his post in July. Qin and ousted defense minister Li Shangfu were both removed as a state councilors last week.

Oxford-educated diplomat Liu Jianchao, a fluent English speaker, is the front-runner, analysts said. Liu and the recently appointed defense minister, Dong Jun, are expected to replace their disgraced predecessors and become state councilors, a senior role in the official hierarchy.

The upcoming U.S. election will hang over the proceedings, according to analysts and state media. To preempt potential upheaval from a Donald Trump victory, Beijing is expected to double down on plans to ensure “self-reliance” in critical technologies like semiconductors.

In a sign of national security concerns, a revised law on state secrets, expected to take effect in May, will broaden the scope of restricted sensitive information to “work secrets.”

What’s Xi up to during all this?

Although Xi is not formally in charge of proceedings at the Two Sessions, China’s most powerful leader in decades tends to make his presence known throughout the proceedings with comments that often get top billing in state media.

Through drop-ins with provincial delegations, industry bodies and military representatives, he could present a new slogans or hint at shifting priorities — all of which gets folded into his personal ideology that is meant to guide Chinese policymaking.

Experts on Chinese politics track Xi’s movements closely to signs of who is in or out of favor. Attendance at a province’s session can be a stamp of approval for the local party chief and their approach.

It’s also a time for Xi to burnish his populist image with supposedly spontaneous interactions with people beyond his inner circle.

For outside observers, the trick is extracting hard policy signals from the propaganda and pageantry.

In a bid to rebuff international concern about repression in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia, Xi is often shown meeting and receiving gifts from delegates from the country’s periphery, who attend wearing colorful traditional dress.

In 2017, as a mass internment campaign targeting Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim groups in the far northwest was taking shape, Xi joined a delegation led by Chen Quanguo, often considered the architect of the crackdown.

In state media, though, the focus was on Xi being given a traditional Uyghur hat from the descendants of a man who once, according to Communist Party mythology, rode a donkey from Xinjiang to Beijing to visit Mao Zedong.

Global Impact: China’s ‘two sessions’ rolls around at decisive moment for the world’s second-largest economy

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254027/global-impact-chinas-two-sessions-rolls-around-decisive-moment-worlds-second-largest-economy?utm_source=rss_feed

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With the world clouded with uncertainty as conflicts rage in the Middle East and Ukraine, nearly 3,000 Chinese lawmakers and other members of the political elite are set to converge on Beijing. There, they will deliberate on plans to maintain stability in the world’s second-largest economy.

, lawmakers will sit in the Great Hall of the People with President Xi Jinping to proclaim solidarity, applaud achievements and dutifully approve government proposals at its annual convening of the National People’s Congress with Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, better known as the “two sessions”.

The past year has been marked by complex challenges both at home and abroad for China, with a coming in at the top of the list.

Far from the “” being preached by state media, the prolonged real estate crisis, and a stock market meltdown have painted a dreary picture, especially as exchanges soar elsewhere.

Observers are keen to see how Beijing will use the meetings to promote its plans and project confidence.

Magic spells are not expected, but Premier Li Qiang will , which may offer recommendations on tackling local protectionism, and moving the economy to a tech-heavy mix as the US continues to erect trade barriers.

The report will also contain a new .

, but that was far from enough to lift market sentiment, and the appeal of the world’s second-largest economy has waned despite Beijing’s repeated vows to address problems.

Since last year, Beijing has been engaged in an all-out effort to revive its economy. It has taken a number of steps to restore confidence, establishing a dedicated private economy bureau among other measures. However, based on important economic indicators – China’s annual foreign direct investment has sunk to a 30-year low and its – all is not well.

Most are now playing a waiting game, content to spectate until Beijing spells out its next moves to rein in policy unpredictability and regain its appeal for investors while creating more jobs and spearheading tech innovation.

Some have wondered if the dreadful economic situation has been the reason for the delay of the , a gathering of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which has traditionally been the venue for new economic reforms and development plans. Former leader Deng Xiaoping, for example, used it to unveil China’s reform and opening-up policy in 1978.

, but that time has long passed, and the date remains a mystery. This has led to speculation that some loose political ends must be tidied up at the upcoming two sessions.

Over the past year, several elite politicians – including Xi’s once-favoured protégés – were kicked out in record time, being charged with corruption or simply .

All those dismissals share one thing in common – no explanation from Beijing.

Why China may have to ‘push harder’ to maintain its economic growth in 2024

The most high-profile cases are Qin Gang, China’s foreign minister who disappeared last June, and who has not been seen since August. Both served the shortest terms in their postings’ modern history.

Qin was said to have been hand-picked by Xi, and Li was promoted exactly one year ago as the legislature elected new state officials. This was also the session where Xi entered his as president.

State media said Qin resigned as a member of the national legislature on Tuesday, just days ahead of the two sessions, while , although the pair remain in the party’s Central Committee.

A dozen high-level members were also ousted from their positions on corruption charges, as Xi’s signature campaign against government misconduct entered its 11th year.

Among those targeted were nine generals, including , who were removed from the national legislature in December.

High-level state bankers and financiers have also been hit, despite the potential downstream effects on business.

It remains to be seen if Beijing will appoint a new foreign minister at the two sessions to replace Wang Yi, . Or whether Beijing will grant and Li’s successor, all his predecessor’s titles, including state councillor and member of the Central Military Commission.

Beijing’s handling of personnel issues in the military may offer clues to understanding the notoriously secretive People’s Liberation Army.

Lawmakers will be briefed on the PLA’s soaring annual budgets, which saw .

What does Li Qiang’s schedule reveal about the changing role of China’s premier?

As conflicts continue in the Middle East and Ukraine, tensions have been high in the South China Sea as China rows with the Philippines over the as well as Scarborough Shoal.

The Taiwan Strait is another source of tension. The independence-leaning William Lai Ching-te, branded by Beijing as a “separatist,” .

The two sessions will commence in the third month since China resumed military dialogue with the US, which was halted when former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi despite Beijing’s stern warnings.

Dialogue resumed soon after Xi and US President Joe Biden and agreed to restart the talks, part of a wider effort to reduce friction amid growing geopolitical tensions.

China’s ‘Two Sessions’ 2024: what to expect

Science and technology have also become severe sticking points in the US-China rivalry, and Beijing has not been shy in asserting its ambition, pushing sweeping self-reliance drives even as the US sanctions imports of key technologies.

The two sessions may be the country’s chosen platform to lay out its technological road map, especially as China has fallen behind in areas like semiconductor manufacturing – essential for cutting-edge applications such as artificial intelligence.

Its scientific aspirations may be further tested with a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, as November’s US presidential election is fast approaching and the ex-president has made no secret of his desire to curb China’s advancement up the value chain.

And with that volatility added to the mix, making plans that project confidence at a time of perpetual changes will be weighing on China’s politicians at the upcoming gatherings.

60-Second Catch-up

China signals more fiscal pump-priming for the economy

Explainer: What to watch for during China’s biggest political event of the year

Beijing police give hint about ‘two sessions’ timing as security is stepped up

Series: What to expect from China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024?

Opinion: Why China will focus on technology but muddle through on policy at NPC meeting

China’s former foreign minister Qin Gang resigns from legislature after long absence from public view

Success of China’s revised state secrets law depends on widespread publicity and education, says senior official

Rocket maker boss resigns from China legislature ahead of ‘two sessions’ 2024

Deep dives

China’s political elite will gather next week for the country’s annual legislative sessions, where plans will be set for the country’s economy, diplomacy, trade and military. In the second part of the series, Frank Chen and He Huifeng examine how Beijing will guide its economy through uncharted waters.

Though it is typically a time for warmer weather, this spring could bring a chill to China’s previously sizzling industries – particularly new energy – as hopes for a banner year of economic growth may not come to fruition if overcapacity concerns and strained trade relations prove enough of a hindrance.

Read more

China’s political elite and lawmakers will gather next week for the country’s annual legislative sessions which will set budgets and lay down Beijing’s plans for the country’s economy, diplomacy, trade and military. In the first part of the series, Vanessa Cai looks at the role of premier and how it has changed under Li Qiang.

When Li Qiang was named China’s premier in March last year, the world’s second-biggest economy was just reopening its borders after three years of draconian Covid-19 lockdowns.

Read more

In recent communications, China’s leaders and media have frequently used the phrase “new productive forces” when discussing how to revitalise and transform the economy – itself a hot topic in a period where growth has slowed and officials have been struggling to find momentum.

The expression took on greater prominence after President Xi Jinping referred to the concept as a “leading factor” for “promoting high-quality development” of the Chinese economy.

Read more

Beijing’s reluctance to go full throttle in boosting economic growth – combined with an absence of clear directives for reform – could further dampen an already dreary climate, experts and foreign business groups have warned.

China’s subdued economic recovery, its restraint in employing strong stimulus measures and mixed policy signals continue to weigh on both domestic and foreign investment as well as consumer confidence, they said.

Read more

The new year traditionally offers a window for an upbeat economic mood in China, falling between the Communist Party’s annual economic work conference in December – the usual arena to inject support for growth and the private sector – and the celebratory Spring Festival, typically in late January or early February.

But this new year feels a bit different.

Read more

In the typically quiet resort town of Davos, Switzerland, Chinese Premier Li Qiang surprised participants at this month’s World Economic Forum with his sonorous declaration that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) had grown by 5.2 per cent in 2023.

The early and unexpected disclosure by China’s No 2 political figure was intended to send a clear message that the world’s second-largest economy had shrugged off the crippling effects of its zero-Covid policies during the pandemic, and that it would remain attractive to foreign investors.

Read more

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.

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South China Sea: ‘stop harassing us’, Philippines foreign minister urges Beijing

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3254031/south-china-sea-stop-harassing-us-philippines-foreign-minister-urges-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed

Philippine foreign minister Enrique Manalo said on Monday that his country wants to solve maritime disputes with China peacefully – but delivered a simple message to Beijing: “stop harassing us”.

Speaking on the sidelines of an Asean-Australia summit in Melbourne, Manalo defended his government’s policy of publicising Chinese manoeuvres in contested maritime territory – including the recent passage of warships near Scarborough Shoal.

“It’s merely trying to inform the people of what’s going on,” Manolo said. “And some countries or one country at least has some difficulty with that.”

“But our simple explanation is if you would stop harassing us and, and perhaps performing other actions, there wouldn’t be any news to report.”

China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its territory, brushing aside claims from a host of Southeast Asian nations.

Scarborough Shoal – a triangular chain of reefs and rocks in the disputed South China Sea – has been a flashpoint between the countries since China seized it from the Philippines in 2012.

Marcos says Philippines will not cede ‘one square inch’ of territory

Philippine governments have tried to rally international and regional support to their cause – with mixed results.

“The Philippines is committed to a peaceful resolution of disputes through diplomatic means, or peaceful means,” Manalo said, while insisting “this will not be done at the expense of our national interest”.

“We are reaching out to partners in like-minded countries with similar issues and similar concerns.”

But Manalo acknowledged there were was at least a small question mark over support from the Philippines’ most important security partner – the United States.

The two countries are treaty allies, meaning Washington has formally pledged to come to Manila’s defence in the event of a military conflict.

When asked about the US presidential election in November which will pit incumbent Joe Biden against Republican firebrand Donald Trump – Manalo said it was a topic of frequent debate behind closed doors.

“Every country in the world is probably thinking of that, of course. The United States is a major, it’s a treaty ally of the Philippines. So obviously, any differences or changes in US policy from existing policies would most likely have some kind of effect.”

“At this stage it’s fairly difficult to assess how it would happen, or what would happen,” he said. “But all I can say is we are, of course, carefully monitoring the election season in the United States, but I’ve had talks with many of my other colleagues from other countries, and I think everybody is doing the same.”

“So certainly all eyes will be riveted on that election this year.”

Also on Monday, the Philippines deployed a coastguard vessel to carry out a two-week patrol mission in waters north and east of the country to intensify its maritime presence and check on Chinese research vessels that were spotted in Benham Rise.

Benham Rise, which sits off the Philippines’ east coast, is a vast area declared by the United Nations in 2012 as part of the country’s continental shelf. Manila in 2017 renamed it “Philippine Rise”.

The Philippines’ coastguard said in a statement its vessel will patrol the waters to conduct maritime domain awareness, intensify its presence in the northern Luzon island and monitor local fishermen.

“We will also check the reported Chinese research vessels in Benham Rise,” coastguard spokesman Armando Balilo said.

‘Benham Rise is ours’: Philippines takes hard line despite mixed signals

Benham Rise, said to be rich in biodiversity and fish stocks, is not in the South China Sea and Beijing has made no claim to it.

Ray Powell, director of SeaLight at the Gordian Knot Centre for National Security Innovation, said on platform X on Friday that two Chinese research vessels left a port in Longxue Island in Guangzhou on February 26 and were “loitering” northeast of Benham Rise, within the Philippines exclusive economic zone.

There was no immediate comment from the Chinese embassy in the Philippines.

Additional reporting by Reuters

Finance lobby group calls for bolder overhaul of Wealth Management Connect scheme to boost Chinese investments

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3254030/finance-lobby-group-calls-bolder-overhaul-gba-wealth-management-connect-scheme-boost-chinese?utm_source=rss_feed

Regulators should take bolder steps to expand the Wealth Management Connect scheme and encourage more investments in Hong Kong products by mainland China-based investors, according to a finance lobby group.

The government’s recent adjustments are “steps in the right direction”, but further relaxations are needed, as the support provided now is “not significant” enough to revitalise the industry, according to Peter Stein, CEO of Asian Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA).

The scheme should raise the investment quota of individual investors to 8 million yuan (US$1.1 million), up from the current 3 million yuan, Stein said. That would allow them to meet the threshold for being classified as “professionals”, giving them access to a wider range of products.

The scheme should also open more products to mainland investors, such as those managed by subsidiaries of Hong Kong-domiciled funds and primarily investing in global markets like the US and Europe, said Eugenie Shen, head of ASIFMA’s asset management group.

Giving mainland users more diverse choices could boost investments, she said. “It’s really about mutual benefits for both the industry and investors.”

Launched in 2021, the Wealth Management Connect scheme allows residents of Hong Kong, Macau and nine cities in Guangdong province to invest directly in approved wealth management products across borders.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and People’s Bank of China last month announced new measures to further improve the platform, including raising the individual quota from 1 million yuan to 3 million yuan, and adding higher-risk products.

Despite the expanded offerings, currently only funds domiciled in Hong Kong are eligible for sales, which limits the investment choices for mainland investors and constrains the platform’s potential, according to Shen.

Hong Kong asset managers should also be allowed to provide more advisory services, so that mainland investors can be better educated on the products on offer, she added.

Hong Kong’s biggest banks roll out new cross-border wealth management products

Founded in 2006, ASIFMA is an independent industry association representing global banks and asset managers, aiming to promote capital market development in Asia.

The group suggests that mainland market regulators should also relax cross-border information sharing by international financial firms.

Last year, the Chinese government said that cross-border financial information will be more intensely scrutinised as a matter of national security, but the official guidance is “somewhat unclear” and concerning for market participants, Shen said.

If authorities allow foreign asset management firms to share their research in China with overseas entities, it could help enhance market credibility and attract more investments from abroad, she said.

“At least for the time being, the economic outlook in mainland China is still unclear and our members, some of the largest global financial institutions, tend to be more conservative,” Shen said. “So it’s good timing to implement further reforms, attract more foreign investors and shore up confidence.”

Why China’s Red Sea diplomatic mission is unlikely to stop Houthi shipping attacks

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3253641/why-chinas-red-sea-diplomatic-mission-unlikely-stop-houthi-shipping-attacks?utm_source=rss_feed

As Houthi rebels continue to wreak havoc in the Red Sea, China recently sent a diplomat to the major countries involved in the crisis in a bid to “restore safety and stability” in the region.

But analysts have said the diplomatic mission is unlikely to yield any solid breakthroughs in the crisis due to Beijing’s continuing reluctance to intervene further – and threaten its neutral position in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Last month, Wang Di, director general of the foreign ministry’s West Asian and North African affairs department, became the first Chinese diplomat since the crisis began to visit both Saudi Arabia and Oman as he met with Saudi, Omani and Yemeni officials.

In all his meetings, he had a similar message.

In Saudi capital Riyadh, Wang told Yemeni deputy foreign minister Mansour Ali Saeed Bajash that China attached great importance to “maintaining security and stability in the Red Sea region”, adding that Beijing supported Yemen’s “legitimate government”, but it would only pursue a “political settlement” on the anti-government Houthi militants.

While there, he made the same point to Saudi Arabian officials – that Beijing was willing to work with the country to “restore safety and stability” in the Red Sea.

Meanwhile, Wang also highlighted China’s call for a ceasefire in Gaza during his tour, telling Omani officials that Beijing believed the Red Sea crisis was a “prominent manifestation of the spillover from Gaza”.

Since November, Iran-backed rebel Houthi militants have conducted drone and missile attacks on the Red Sea shipping lines in response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, damaging the vital trade lifeline connecting Europe and Asia.

Liu Xinlu, director of the school of Arabic studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said Wang’s visit showed that the Red Sea crisis was “closely related” to China’s interests.

“Although the Yemeni Houthis have not launched attacks on Chinese ships and have given such facilities to [Chinese] personnel and enterprises, the Red Sea corridor is related to world shipping, so the transport of oil and gas resources and commodities still has a relatively large impact [on China],” he said.

Saudi Arabia and Oman are key players in the Houthi crisis. Riyadh has led an anti-Houthi coalition against the militants since 2015. The years-long war has triggered humanitarian crises in Yemen, but under Oman’s mediation, the two parties started ceasefire negotiations last year.

Beijing has also reportedly urged Tehran to rein in the rebel group. Earlier this month, the Chinese deputy foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu told his Iranian counterpart Ali Bagheri that Beijing needed “safety of navigation in Red Sea waters”.

Liu said Wang’s visit reaffirmed Beijing’s position on the Red Sea crisis, which was “a spillover of the Gaza war”, and further suggested that “the Palestinian-Israeli issue is at the heart of the Middle East problem”.

“Actually, Wang’s diplomatic visit is about furthering Beijing’s goal of a political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli issue, which is to achieve a ceasefire [in Gaza] through diplomatic mediation and political approaches,” he said.

But Yin Gang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that since Wang was not considered a senior official of the foreign ministry, his visit was more of a “routine” one, underscoring Beijing’s reluctance to get more involved in the crisis.

He noted that as the Houthi militants gave the green light to Chinese and Russian vessels in the trade corridor, Beijing needed to maintain a balanced approach so it would not be blamed for “conspiring with the Houthis and Iran”.

Beijing has long supported the exiled legitimate government of Yemen, but it also advocated a peaceful resolution to the Yemen crisis, avoiding a harsh stance towards the Houthi militants.

It has sought to play the role of peacemaker in the Yemen conflict at the diplomatic level as its influence in the Middle East grows. Last year, Shao Zheng, charge d’affaires of the Chinese embassy in Yemen, promoted the idea of China as a mediator after it brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

But in terms of the Red Sea, Yin said: “China has no ability nor motivation to be further involved.”

He said Beijing would continue its independent strategy, which meant steering clear of any approaches from Tehran or the Houthis, or even Washington.

“Except when China’s vital interests are compromised, such as a widespread attack on Chinese carriers, China will maintain a low-profile stance.”

Washington has also pushed China to get further engaged in their exchanges in recent months, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken putting pressure on Beijing.

Liu predicted higher-profile diplomatic exchanges related to the Gaza war and Red Sea issues may be on their way, with Beijing still looking to find political solutions to the Palestine-Israel conflict.

China is not alone in trying to maintain a fragile balance in the Red Sea crisis. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both traditionally allies of the US, have not joined the anti-Houthi patrols, but neither have they publicly supported the militants’ attacks on Israel. Egypt has also largely remained silent.

“China’s position is mostly one of distancing itself from Western countries. Chinese diplomats have been carefully commenting on the events, but in Beijing’s narratives, the rise of attacks is a consequence of Israel’s war in Gaza,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.

“Because Beijing portrays the US as the main cause behind regional instability in the Middle East, it looks at Prosperity Guardian and the air strikes against the Houthis as contributing elements to the escalation,” he said.

Operation Prosperity Guardian is a US-led military exercise formed in December 2023 to respond to the Red Sea attacks.

China, meanwhile, has not announced any force deployment to help safeguard the shipping routes, despite having a strong military presence in the region.

The passage of water at the centre of the crisis is home to China’s first overseas naval base – in Djibouti. The Horn of Africa port opened in 2017 across the sea from Yemen’s Houthi-controlled west coast.

On February 21, China dispatched the 46th fleet of the Chinese PLA Navy to secure the Gulf of Aden and the waters off Somalia, which connect the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. It replaces the 45th fleet.

Without mentioning the Red Sea crisis, the PLA Navy said the 46th fleet includes a guided-missile destroyer, a missile frigate and a comprehensive replenishment vessel.

The deployment includes more than 700 officers and soldiers, dozens of special forces personnel and two helicopters.

Despite China not joining the US-led operations in the area, Yin said the heavy presence of the 46th fleet sent a clear signal to Iran and Houthi militants that China would protect shipping safety there.

China’s defence ministry, however, denied the dispatched fleet is related to the Red Sea crisis, calling it a “regular escort operation” on February 29.

“The fact that the Chinese naval fleet went to the Gulf of Aden and Somali waters to carry out regular escort operations has nothing to do with the current regional situation,” ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang said, referring to the Red Sea situation.

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Singapore jails Chinese man who stabbed roommate over noisy mobile game

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3254028/singapore-jails-chinese-man-who-stabbed-roommate-over-noisy-mobile-game?utm_source=rss_feed

Wanting some rest after a long day, a 24-year-old sales assistant in Singapore headed home – only to be disturbed by the sound of a “live game” on his roommate’s mobile phone.

His solution? Stabbing the man with a kitchen knife.

Wang Ye, who is from China, was sentenced to 12 months’ jail on Wednesday last week, after pleading guilty to voluntarily causing hurt using a weapon. Two similar charges were taken into consideration.

Deputy Public Prosecutor Janessa Phua told the court that Wang and his 22-year-old roommate, also from China, had a dispute in early November last year over Wang’s loud snoring.

On November 5 last year, Wang returned to the room they rented together after finishing work.

Not wanting to disturb his roommate with his snoring, he moved his mattress from their room to the living room.

Chinese flock to Singapore during Lunar New Year in boost to travel sector

In the meantime, the roommate was watching a live game on his mobile phone while having dinner in the living room.

“The accused then confronted the complainant, alleging that the complainant was playing the live game at a high volume and disturbing his rest,” Phua said.

“A verbal dispute ensued, with the accused and complainant exchanging vulgarities.”

Noticing a pair of scissors lying near the sofa in the living room, Wang picked them up and charged towards his roommate. Wang then choked him, before trying to stab him with the scissors.

The homeowner, a 45-year-old female Singaporean, intervened and took the scissors from Wang.

Wang then walked to the kitchen and grabbed a 24cm kitchen knife, before charging at his roommate again.

Although the homeowner tried to get hold of the knife, Wang pushed her aside before stabbing his roommate above the left rib cage.

The roommate was left with a 1cm wound and a bad bruise at the site of the stab injury.

Phua sought a sentence of between 11 and 13 months’ jail, noting that the roommate was given 13 days of hospitalisation leave due to the injuries.

“The victim had sustained a stab wound above his left rib cage, which is close to his vital organs,” she added.

Wang, who was not represented by a lawyer, pleaded for leniency in Mandarin, promising to “turn over a new leaf” and that he was very remorseful.

In sentencing, District Judge Kenneth Chin said that Wang’s offence was serious.

Singapore jails Chinese men for stealing casino chips with glue on their palms

“Given the weapon you used, you should be thankful no more serious injuries were caused. If not, you would be expecting a heavier sentence,” he added.

Wang’s sentence will be backdated by a day, taking into account the one day he spent in remand.

For voluntarily causing hurt using a weapon, he could have been jailed for up to seven years, fined, caned or a combination of the three.

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[World] Can a rubberstamp parliament help China's economy?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68402147

Philippines’ U-turn on South China Sea code of conduct a sign tensions remain stumbling block to progress

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3253868/philippines-u-turn-south-china-sea-code-conduct-sign-tensions-remain-stumbling-block-progress?utm_source=rss_feed

The Philippines’ affirmation of a code of conduct (COC) between China and Southeast Asian countries is a likely sign that earlier efforts by Manila at forging a “mini” pact may not be working, analysts say, as tensions could deter regional neighbours from “openly welcoming” its overtures.

If Manila goes ahead and files charges against Chinese fishermen over the alleged use of cyanide to damage the Scarborough Shoal, it would be an attempt by the Philippines to resort to legal options to promote its maritime interests, observers added.

Earlier this month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said Manila was firmly committed to negotiations on a code of conduct between China and Southeast Asian countries to avert confrontations in the South China Sea.

He added that tensions in the disputed waterway were not all about a rivalry between superpowers the United States and China, and the Philippines and others had legitimate rights and interests to uphold.

This contrasted with remarks by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in November last year that Manila had approached neighbours such as Malaysia and Vietnam to discuss a separate code of conduct, citing limited progress towards striking a broader regional pact with China.

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have been working on a South China Sea COC for more than two decades, but progress has been slow despite commitments by all parties to accelerate the process.

Manila committed to South China Sea code, says tensions not US-China related

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said the increasingly strained ties between China and the Philippines, as a result of rising maritime tensions, were likely to deter other claimants from “openly welcoming Manila’s overtures”.

There is also the worry that excluding China – the sea’s biggest claimant – from the discussion could “further complicate efforts to conclude a regional code of conduct”, Pitlo said.

“This may help account for the reception to Manila’s proposal for an Asean claimants-only code,” Pitlo said, noting that claimant states also did not want to leave their largest trade partner out of the conversation.

China has been the largest trade partner for not just the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam but also Asean as a whole for 14 consecutive years, with bilateral trade volume between China and the bloc standing at US$975.3 billion in 2022.

Despite Marcos Jnr’s comments about approaching regional neighbours, Vietnam and Malaysia did not issue any official responses or comments.

Aaron Jed Rabena, a senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines’ Asian Centre, said Manila was consistent in maintaining its commitment to the regional COC as it believed that it was “a diplomatic way to rein in China’s behaviour” in the South China Sea.

The mini COC, he said, was an attempt by the Philippines to “strengthen its bargaining position and rally a united front versus” China.

“Whether or not Malaysia and Vietnam are on the same page with the Philippines will depend on their current and future threat perception of China,” Rabena said.

He added that the dispute between the Philippines and China should not be entirely framed as a product of superpower rivalry, as this would mean Manila “has no agency or maritime entitlements” in the South China Sea.

Noting that there were two levels to the dispute – between the United States and China, and China and the Philippines – Rabena said in the case of the latter, Manila “primarily cares about fishing rights and resupply access but does not see the China-US tech race and trade wars in the same level of interest”.

China earlier criticised the Philippines for taking provocative actions in the South China Sea, where the two countries are engaged in territorial disputes, and vowed to “respond resolutely” to defend its rights.

Manila risks Beijing’s wrath with ‘non-starter’ South China Sea mini pact plan

John Bradford, executive director at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, said a regional COC “seems quite unlikely to come to completion” because anything beyond the current agreements would require compromise on sovereign rights and responsibilities.

“So long as China continues to press ahead with solidification of the military and administrative power to enforce its maritime claims, it is only natural that its smaller neighbours will explore opportunities to cooperate among each other,” he said.

“Recent Philippine actions underscore the fact that their umbrage is with Chinese action … [Manila] benefits from its alliance with the US, but they are pushing back against a perceived aggressor, not the surrogates of another conflict.”

In a statement on Sunday, the Philippine coastguard accused Chinese coastguard vessels of deploying a floating barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, and conducting “blocking manoeuvres” about 1.3 nautical miles from the shoal.

On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the move on the shoal called Huangyan Island in Chinese was “necessary” as it was China’s “inherent territory”.

Last week, Marcos Jnr said the Philippines would file charges against Chinese fishermen if the government found legal basis for their alleged use of cyanide to damage the Scarborough Shoal.

“If we feel that there is an enough ground to do so, we will,” Marcos Jnr said, referring to reports earlier received by the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources that Chinese fishermen were using cyanide to damage the shoal and to prevent Filipino boats from fishing in the area.

Pitlo said as a smaller country, the Philippines saw international law as an “equaliser”, with legal options being part of its “toolkit” to promote its maritime interests.

“But fast and game-changing facts on the ground and the difficulty of implementing the 2016 arbitral award may test heavy reliance on legal approaches,” Pitlo added, referring to a ruling handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague which concluded which found that Beijing’s claims to almost the entirety of the South China Sea was groundless. China has rejected the ruling.

Rabena said the president’s statement on the environmental case, if proven true, was part of the Marcos administration’s “strategy of assertive transparency”.

“[It] aims to impose reputational costs and increase international pressure on China, believing that in doing so, China will change its behaviour,” Rabena added.

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: after high-level purges, will party leadership tidy up loose ends?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3253661/chinas-two-sessions-2024-after-high-level-purges-will-party-leadership-tidy-loose-ends?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s political elite and lawmakers will gather next week for the country’s annual legislative sessions which will set budgets and lay down Beijing’s plans for the country’s economy, diplomacy, trade and military. In the fifth part of , William Zheng explores the questions hanging over this year’s event after the dramatic high-level purges of the past year.

When thousands of members of China’s political elite gather in Beijing this week for the annual session of the national legislature, it will be hard to ignore the elephant in the Great Hall of the People.

In the past year, more than 10 senior members of China’s diplomatic and defence ranks – all of them seated in the same hall a year ago, some of whom were even promoted during the same event last March – have been ousted from their positions, and removed from public view.

China’s ‘Two Sessions’ 2024: what to expect

Among them are Qin Gang, China’s shortest-serving foreign minister who disappeared last June, and Li Shangfu, China’s shortest-serving defence minister, who has not been seen since August.

On Tuesday, Qin resigned as a member of the national legislature, according to an official statement, while Li was also removed from the party’s Central Military Commission (CMC). The pair remained on the Central Committee, however, the Communist Party’s 300-strong decision making body.

Nine other generals, including two former rocket force commanders, were “suspected of serious violations of discipline and law” – a party euphemism for corruption – and removed from the legislature in December.

Beijing has given no further explanation for the removal of the officials, leaving the status of some subsequent replacements in limbo. The information void has fuelled a narrative about China’s political uncertainties, against the backdrop of low confidence in the economy among international business leaders and the country’s private sector.

But experts say this year’s “two sessions”, or lianghui – an event designed to signal national unity and project confidence in the year ahead – offers a unique opportunity for Xi to tidy up political loose ends, and help boost both domestic and international messaging.

During the event, the lawmakers will adopt Premier Li Qiang’s first government work report, approve military and other key annual budgets, and possibly endorse personnel decisions.

The event also comes after the party repeatedly delayed a key conclave, known as the third plenum, during which the midterm strategy on the economy and governance is usually discussed.

Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of Study Times, the official newspaper of the Central Party School, said the delay of the plenum meant that this year’s two sessions would be the first major occasion for the leadership to present their plans to the nation and the world on how they planned to tackle China’s stagnant growth and handle external challenges, while giving political signals on the progress of the ongoing purge and reshuffle.

“People are looking for different things. Political observers will certainly want to know if Beijing’s purge is coming to an end, especially in its military and diplomatic corps. Interactions among the top leaders will also be watched closely for the outside world to gauge their unity,” Deng said.

“Foreign investors will be looking for signs that Beijing has returned to a pro-development mode, including China’s GDP target and development strategies.

“China’s neighbours will want to know its military budget growth targets; and the Chinese people will be more interested in the government’s plan to create jobs and the direction of China’s stock market and property markets.”

Why China may have to ‘push harder’ to maintain its economic growth in 2024

The third plenary session of the Central Committee is usually held in the autumn of the year following the twice-a-decade national party congress, which was last held in 2022.

Since former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping famously used the plenum to announce China’s economic reform and opening-up policy in 1978, it has traditionally been the stage for deciding on the country’s development path.

However, the party’s leadership has not signalled when the conclave will be held this time, marking a first time since 1984 that the event was not held in the year following the party congress.

Observers say that part of the reason for the delay may be President Xi Jinping’s pending decision on the ongoing purges.

Gabriel Wildau, who focuses on political risk analysis in China as managing director at international advisory firm Teneo, said the purges of Qin Gang as foreign minister, Li Shangfu as defence minister, and multiple senior officers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had left vacancies in the Central Committee.

Chinese officials in flurry of visits to PLA command to support war plans

The replacement of the two ministers, as well as former PLA Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao and political commissar Xu Zhongbo, means the careers of at least four among the 205 “full” members of the Central Committee hang in the balance.

The rare reshuffle in top diplomatic and military positions so soon after their appointments suggested serious wrongdoing – but Beijing did not explain the removals.

That intended vagueness – an obvious sign that Beijing has sought to buy time for what could be seen as major embarrassments – may not bode well in a plenum, when the leadership usually discloses progress on investigations into senior leaders.

A political researcher at Peking University who did not wish to be identified said the purges were likely to entail soul-searching in Beijing on the vetting processes for top cadres, often cited by the party as proof of the strength of its political system.

Xi is heavily involved in the vetting process, according to state news agency Xinhua, which said he has personally reviewed the list of all Central Committee members since the 19th party congress in 2017.

The reports also said Xi was briefed “many times” in the lead-up to both the 19th and the 20th party congresses to make sure the most “capable, loyal and clean cadres” were picked.

Leading scientist crucial to China’s space efforts to be expelled from top body

“But it seems that even with his personal attention, the process is not 100 per cent [corruption-proof]. He will definitely order the team in charge to reflect on what went wrong and find ways to … make it impeccable,” the researcher said.

The National People’s Congress (NPC) gives a window for Beijing to clean up these unresolved issues, including the possibility of appointing a new foreign minister to replace Wang Yi, whose abrupt replacement of Qin Gang last year was largely read as an indicator of a crisis mode in China’s diplomacy.

Equally, Beijing has not yet promoted Dong Jun, the defence minister who replaced Li Shangfu, to the full ranks. Dong has yet to become a state councillor and a member of the CMC. The coming NPC session is also an occasion for him to be handed both titles, on par with his predecessors, if the party chooses to do so.

Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, said that because Li Shangfu and Qin Gang were both state councillors, the expectation was that their replacements would also hold this higher-ranked position.

“If the new defence minister or foreign minister does not also become a state councillor, it will make them less powerful officials and suggest that Xi does not fully trust them,” he said. “But the rising unpredictability of personnel movements in Xi’s third term makes it difficult to know whether this change will occur at the two sessions.”

The Peking University political researcher said the appointment of a new foreign minister and promotion of a new foreign and defence minister to state councillor was “a good starting point because it would send a clear political signal that these new leaders have the party’s top leader’s trust and endorsement”.

“Diplomacy and defence are two critical systems for Beijing to manage the tensions with the United States and handle regional hotspots like the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and Korean peninsula. Their resumption to normal modes will mean foreign diplomats and military officials can interact with their Chinese counterparts according to established protocol,” the researcher said.

He added that a complete end to this round of purges in China’s diplomatic and defence corps could only come after the Central Committee’s meeting, because the final decisions on removal of their Central Committee membership and verdicts on the alleged disciplinary problems of the senior officials needed to be formally endorsed by the party’s top decision-making body.

Another key function of that third plenum is to set a midterm economic strategy, which, like the personnel purges, will also contribute to the overall direction for the coming two sessions, when Li Qiang will deliver the government work report.

But experts have also speculated about another reason for the delay of the plenum – that Beijing assessed that the causes of China’s economic difficulties are complex and require a nuanced approach – meaning the leadership needs more time to examine the facts and come up with a viable strategy.

Stock market turmoil might also have added to Xi’s concerns over the fragility of the Chinese financial system, especially as high US interest rates and prospects of continued US-China rivalry trigger continued capital outflows.

The dent in investor confidence also comes amid patchy post-Covid recovery for the world’s No 2 economy, with youth unemployment, demographic trends and property market strains major concerns despite Beijing’s announcement of 5.2 per cent growth in 2023.

The finance system was among “high-risk” areas mentioned by Xi in January as he ordered the party’s top anti-corruption body to show no mercy. The renewed focus on the sector, after a string of high-profile crackdowns on state bankers and financiers since 2017, is viewed as a bid to plug capital control loopholes that would render any market rescue stimulus ineffective.

Li Qiang’s government work report is unlikely to announce bold new directions in China’s economic policy, according to Thomas of the Asia Society.

“It is likely to announce a similar growth target to last year’s mark of about 5 per cent and will probably focus on elaborating the agenda decided by the Communist Party at the central economic work conference last December,” he added.

“But in absence of economic reform, this goal will require more stimulus, which means either a higher deficit-to-GDP target or more off-budget fiscal injections.”

Teneo’s Wildau said the plenum’s delay pointed to the “unprecedentedly complex and difficult foreign and domestic challenges” for the economy.

“Xi and other top leaders still aim to produce a decision that offers credible policy responses. The time needed to develop these responses may explain the plenum delay,” he said.

Chinese state media warns against cryptocurrency trading, as domestic interest surge on bitcoin rally

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3253984/chinese-state-media-warns-against-cryptocurrency-trading-domestic-interest-surge-bitcoin-rally?utm_source=rss_feed

Bitcoin’s recent rally has sparked renewed warnings from Chinese state media about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies, as interest around digital assets remains strong in the country despite a sweeping ban on crypto mining and trading.

A rebound in bitcoin prices cannot “hide” the underlying risks of the digital asset, state-owned newspaper Economic Daily said on Sunday.

Wild fluctuations in bitcoin value remain the norm, and cryptocurrencies have yet to enter the mainstream, the article said, adding that regulatory scrutiny of the market remains tight. Investors should maintain a “clear and rational” mindset, it said.

The caution comes after the world’s largest and most valuable cryptocurrency gained nearly 45 per cent in February, reaching its highest level since November 2021.

The advance was fuelled by the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States in January, as well as bitcoin’s next “halving” event expected in April, which will cut the reward for mining new bitcoin by half and slow its release into the market.

The combination of factors sent bitcoin’s value to over US$62,500 last Wednesday. And despite a mild drop since then, the cryptocurrency is still trading at 40 per cent higher than the beginning of the year.

The jump in prices sparked surging interest from internet users in mainland China, where a community of cryptocurrency enthusiasts remains active despite the government’s rigid stance against the digital asset.

Bitcoin became a trending search last week on multiple Chinese online platforms, including microblogging site Weibo. The term’s popularity increased more than fourfold on the multipurpose app WeChat.

Interest in conducting secret bitcoin trades also appears to have grown in China, as the country’s stock market extends a slump amid an economic slowdown, according to a report by Reuters in January.

Chinese social media all agog as bitcoin prices continue to surge

Chinese state media has persistently tried to dissuade people from engaging in cryptocurrency-related activities, as authorities cited risks of capital flight and financial instability.

In September 2021, 10 government bodies escalated the country’s crypto ban by jointly declaring a broad range of cryptocurrency-related activities as illegal financial activities.

In 2022, as cryptocurrency prices plunged following a series of company meltdowns, the Economic Daily warned that the prices of bitcoin, which the newspaper called “nothing more than a string of digital codes”, could head to its “original value” of zero.

In the same year, executives at Blockchain-based Service Network, a state-backed Chinese initiative pushing for the commercial adoption of blockchain technology, called cryptocurrencies “the biggest Ponzi scheme in human history”.

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