• Ukraine war: US sanctions China, Turkey and UAE firms to curb Russia
• Micronesia’s ex-leader, urging US funds for Pacific islands and warning of China war, stirs debate
• US seizes US$500,000 in crypto from Chinese businessman linked to Asian ‘pig butchering’ scam
• EU-China relations: Brussels to push outbound investment screening tools in January, amid concern over Beijing
• In global shipping, it’s China vs South Korea, and Seoul is securing its shipbuilding secrets
• House committee calls for reset on China-U.S. economic relations
• China’s development is biggest political priority at key econ meeting as leaders vow to counter risks, lift confidence in 2024
• Oops. Joe Biden mixes up Chinese leaders, refers to Deng Xiaoping instead of Xi Jinping
• Saudi Arabia urges Chinese firms to explore its ‘phenomenal demand’, cooperate in green transition
• ‘Not a toy’: China circus charges US$2.8 to let children ride tiger for photos, faces legal action
• China’s online censors target short videos, artificial intelligence and ‘pessimism’ in latest crackdown
• China’s Wang Yi urges coordination with Iran in call to discuss Israel-Gaza war
• China’s role in spotlight as Cop28 climate talks in Dubai enter final phase
• How China and EU can transcend zero-sum mindsets and create a better world
• South China Sea: Xi Jinping calls for ‘mutually acceptable solutions’ as he visits Vietnam
• China population: with falling fertility rate ‘an unavoidable norm’, Beijing told focus should shift to people not numbers
• South China Sea: China’s envoy to Philippines lodges protest in Manila over weekend clashes in disputed waterway
• Eyes on the prize: China con artists feign blindness during beauty treatments, extort US$140,000 from clinics
• China overtakes US as branded coffee shop capital of the world
• Nvidia in talks with Biden administration about AI chip sales to China, US commerce chief Gina Raimondo says
• China’s economic slowdown pushes UK firms to take ‘wait-and-see’ approach to investments, but 2024 optimism returns
• ‘Smile on her face’: girl in China, 11, living in 1 room with grandparents, studying on street, gets own bedroom thanks to community kindness
• ‘Unluckiest high-speed rail’: how Mother Nature bends human will in record-breaking infrastructure in western China
• Top US government audit agency urged to ensure China influence probes are kept ‘free from bias’
• Why China and the EU could emerge as stronger partners in 2024
• To stabilise China’s economy, Beijing corrects course on policy, from carbon cuts to common prosperity
• China is close to peak emissions, but it doesn’t want to talk about it

Ukraine war: US sanctions China, Turkey and UAE firms to curb Russia

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3244859/ukraine-war-us-sanctions-china-turkey-and-uae-firms-curb-russia?utm_source=rss_feed

The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on hundreds of people and entities, including in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, as it targets Russia’s sanctions evasion, future energy capabilities, banks and its metals and mining sector.

The US Treasury and State departments targeted more than 250 individuals and entities in Washington’s latest action attempting to crack down on Russia and its evasion of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the war in Ukraine.

“We will continue to use the tools at our disposal to promote accountability for Russia’s crimes in Ukraine and those who finance and support Russia’s war machine,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

The Treasury said it imposed sanctions on a network of four entities and nine people based in China, Russia, Hong Kong and Pakistan over the facilitation and procurement of Chinese-manufactured weapons and technologies to Russia. It said the network sought to circumvent US sanctions and Chinese controls on the export of military-related materials.

It also targeted Turkey, United Arab Emirates and China-based companies over the shipment of technology, equipment and inputs, including ball or roller bearings, aircraft parts and X-ray systems.

The China-based firms targeted included commercial satellite imagery companies that Treasury said provided high-resolution observation imagery to Russian mercenary firm Wagner.

The State Department also targeted Chinese entities in an action against a network it said was involved in procuring microelectronic components for Russian state conglomerate Rostec, which itself is under US sanctions.

It said the microelectronics were being used to develop electronic warfare systems. Companies in Russia, Turkey and Hong Kong were also targeted as part of action against the network.

Chinese firm sold satellites for intelligence to Russia’s Wagner: document

Washington has stepped up diplomatic pressure on countries and private companies globally to ensure enforcement of the sanctions it, the European Union and other Western nations have imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia and China’s embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Russia dismisses Western sanctions as illegal, and says they will not impede the development of its economy.

UAE’s embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Its foreign ministry did not immediately reply to a request outside usual working hours.

The US targeted three companies developing the Ust-Luga liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, a facility at a Baltic seaport in northwest Russia to be operated by Gazprom and RusGazDobycha.

The yet-to-be-built complex is part of Gazprom’s strategy to shift focus to processing and is poised to become Russia’s largest gas processing plant, and one of the world’s largest in terms of production volumes.

The sanctions were put on Russian-based companies Limited Liability Company Northern Technologies, Joint Stock Company Kazan Compressor Machinery Plant, and Limited Liability Company Gazprom Linde Engineering.

Washington is seeking to interfere with Russia’s future energy production and fuel export capacity.

The move came a little over a month after Washington put sanctions on an entity developing another LNG project, Arctic-2 LNG in Siberia. It was not immediately clear how Russia’s future LNG exports would be affected. The US is the world’s largest LNG exporter.

Russian LNG revenue to double thanks to Asian buyers, despite Ukraine crisis

German company Linde stopped work at Ust-Luga in 2022 due to Western sanctions. This year Russia has been talking with China to involve Chinese companies in construction of the plant.

Gazprom did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The State Department also targeted Russian businessman Vladislav Sviblov and Highland Gold Mining, a UK-registered company owned and controlled by him that it said is Russia’s seventh-largest gold producer, as well as other companies connected to Sviblov following action Britain took in November. A representative for Sviblov declined to comment.

The State Department also designated three shipping companies and three Russian-flagged commercial vessels it said have been used to transfer munitions between North Korea and Russia.

North Korea’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Washington also targeted four Russian financial institutions – including Expobank, the proposed buyer of HSBC’s Russian business – and dozens of Russia-based entities involved in the import, production, modification and sale of defence-related and industrial technology, including drones.

The State Department also listed former telecoms CEO Ivan Tavrin and a network of companies he runs. It said Tavrin “has become one of Russia’s biggest wartime deal makers since the beginning of Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine”.

A representative for Kismet, owned by Tavrin, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sanctions. New Towers, one of the companies in Tavrin’s empire, declined to comment.

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Micronesia’s ex-leader, urging US funds for Pacific islands and warning of China war, stirs debate

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3244861/micronesias-ex-leader-urging-us-funds-pacific-islands-and-warning-china-war-stirs-debate?utm_source=rss_feed

A bombshell letter Micronesia’s former leader sent to US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson warning a Sino-American war could ensue should Congress fail to approve funds for deals between Washington and three Pacific island nations has stirred a debate among Indo-Pacific experts on his claims.

“The war between China and the United States that Admiral John C Aquilino described earlier this year as being ‘not imminent nor inevitable’ may become imminent and may become inevitable, if [Cofa] is not signed this year,” said David Panuelo in his letter on Friday, noting a remark by the American commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command.

The Compacts of Free Association (Cofa) give Washington exclusive access to the land, water and air of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau to boost American security. In exchange, the island nations receive financial help and their citizens can study, live and work in the US.

An extension of the agreements, signed in the 1980s, needed to happen “this year, not next year”, Panuelo added, saying the deals “might well not exist if you wait any longer” as the countries “face financial cliffs”.

The former Micronesian president said if Congress did not approve the agreements by January 1 it would be “strikingly difficult” for children to attend school and mothers to find prenatal care in hospitals. He also said food insecurity would “skyrocket” and that importing food and fuel for power generation would become harder.

Panuelo cautioned that “it wouldn’t be so hard for Palau and the Marshall Islands, which recognise Taiwan, to switch to recognising the PRC if the PRC offers assistance”.

Taiwan, a self-ruled island, is considered a renegade province by China that is to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

The US, he added, was “already on the precipice of losing the North Pacific to Chinese influence and propaganda”.

Consensus no more? Democrats start to split from Republicans on China policy

For years Beijing and Washington have vied for influence in the Pacific islands, eager to advance their respective global commercial and defence ambitions.

The terse warning came days after Panuelo’s successor, Wesley Simina, suggested that if the US Congress did not approve Cofa funds “we will have to find different sources of funding … and that’s not out there available immediately”.

Asked by the Post about the letter, Jackson Soram, Micronesia’s ambassador to the US in Washington, stated on Tuesday he had “no comments”.

The Chinese embassy in Micronesia did not respond to a request for comment.

Robert Underwood of the Pacific Centre for Island Security, a Guam-based research institute, described Panuelo’s assessment as “a bit overblown”.

While agreeing that the freely associated states were facing economic turbulence, Underwood said “the justification and the attention given to the US-China competition and the effects of not funding these compacts I would say is overstated”.

Cofa was based on a long-term relationship and would be in place regardless of the two countries’ competing ambitions, he added, saying Panuelo was invoking “the China card” to push funding.

But Gordon Peake of the United States Institute of Peace, a non-partisan Washington- based body founded by Congress, disagreed with Underwood.

‘Nations can look elsewhere’: Micronesia ex-leader urges US to keep funds pledge

Peake described Panuelo as a “well-respected Pacific leader who has been long sounding the alarm bell about Chinese engagement in his country”.

Noting that funds for Micronesia and the Marshall Islands would run out on February 2 next year, Peake said Panuelo was using a “black-and-white and urgent tone” to get Congress’s attention instead of more “standard, reserved and diplomatic language”.

Echoing that sentiment, Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a Washington think tank, said she was “inclined to take [Panuelo] very seriously”.

As Micronesia’s president until May this year, Panuelo had “an information and intelligence service and a cybersecurity bureau at his disposal”, Paskal added.

Last week the White House called on Congress to pass Cofa-related legislation “as soon as possible”, according to a press release.

Extending such aid formed “a critical component” of the administration’s Indo-Pacific, Pacific partnership and national security strategies, it stated.

As of Tuesday, neither the White House nor Johnson’s press office had responded to requests for comments on Panuelo’s letter.

Biden earlier this year committed a total of US$7.1 billion over 20 years to the three nations – the largest-ever congressional budget request for the region.

Build now, pay later? Debt-ridden Fiji turns to China for port upgrades

However, the sum was not included in the National Defence Authorisation Act, a bicameral version of which was released on Thursday.

The NDAA establishes the Pentagon’s top-line budget and directs its policy for the coming financial year. Full votes on the act are expected in both the US Senate and House chambers before the new year.

Also last week, a US$160 billion supplemental aid package focused on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan but containing Cofa funding failed to pass in the Senate. Lawmakers opposing the legislation cited a failure to address America’s border crisis.

On Tuesday, the House select committee on strategic competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party joined the Biden administration in calling on Congress to “pass legislation to renew the Compacts of Free Association agreements”.

US secures Marshall Islands military deal, blunts China in vital Pacific region

In a resolution on resetting economic ties with China adopted on Tuesday, the panel said the US should continue its commitments to the Cofa countries and expand its presence across the Pacific islands to counter China’s influence in the region.

The economies of the three island nations rely heavily on American subsidies, which for Micronesia account for roughly 40 per cent of its annual revenue.

For the Marshall Islands, US funding comprises about 70 per cent of its GDP.

Palau, meanwhile, is in danger of facing a debt crisis on January 1. Its GDP dropped by 30 per cent between 2016 and 2019, as the flow of Chinese tourists dropped by half after the government reiterated its support for Taiwan.

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US seizes US$500,000 in crypto from Chinese businessman linked to Asian ‘pig butchering’ scam

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3244862/us-seizes-us500000-crypto-chinese-businessman-linked-asian-pig-butchering-scam?utm_source=rss_feed

The United States has seized digital currency worth about half a million dollars from an account registered to a Chinese man who featured in a Reuters investigation into crypto-investment fraud run from Southeast Asia.

US authorities said the scam that prompted the seizure involved a crypto-investment fraud known as pig butchering. In such schemes, fraudsters manipulate unsuspecting people they meet online, persuading them to invest in bogus cryptocurrency schemes.

The US Secret Service seized the cryptocurrency from an account in the name of Wang Yicheng in June, according to a document filed by US authorities in federal court in Massachusetts. The cryptocurrency was worth about US$500,000 at the time. Money initially stolen from a Massachusetts victim was traced to Wang’s account, the November 21 filing said.

Reuters, in an article published last month, identified Wang as a businessman who forged relationships with members of Thailand’s law-enforcement and political elite while serving as the vice-president of a Bangkok-based Chinese trade group.

The November 23 article detailed how a cryptocurrency account in Wang’s name received more than US$90 million in recent years, based on documents and transaction logs. Of that, at least US$9.1 million came from a cryptocurrency wallet that US blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs said was linked to pig-butchering scams.

The report highlighted the example of a California man whose family said he was scammed out of about US$2.7 million. He sent money to cryptocurrency wallets that channelled funds into the account in Wang’s name, the reporting showed.

The recent US court filing cited another example, a resident of Cambridge, Massachusetts. He was allegedly cheated of about US$478,000 worth of cryptocurrency, which was diverted into two cryptocurrency accounts, one of which was in Wang’s name.

The details of the account given in the US court filing – including who it was registered to, where it was held, the account number’s last four digits and the corresponding cryptocurrency wallet address – match the details of the Wang account highlighted in the Reuters report.

‘Pig butchering’ love scams from China find new victims to slaughter

US authorities said the account in Wang’s name had received more than US$90 million since it was opened in 2020, according to the filing, which was an affidavit by US Secret Service Special Agent Heidi Robles.

“This level of activity is indicative of an account controlled by a criminal organisation for the purpose of laundering stolen funds,” Robles said in the filing.

Wang did not respond to requests for comment. The head of the Thai police’s Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau declined to comment.

The trade group Wang represented is called the Thai-Asia Economic Exchange Trade Association. In response to questions for this article, it said it abided by laws and regulations and did not support illegal activity. It said Wang’s business and personal affairs had “nothing to do with the trade association”, adding that Wang was no longer part of the group and it was no longer in contact with him.

The Thai-Asia group previously said in a December 4 letter that Wang left its board more than three months ago. That was due to Wang’s failure to pay the trade group’s new membership dues as well as “personal reasons”, on which the letter did not elaborate.

The group said background checks it conducted on Wang when he originally applied for membership and after Reuters’ November 23 report found no criminal record.

The US court filing was part of a civil forfeiture action, in which the government seeks court approval to take possession of seized assets it alleges are linked to a crime. The United States has not filed a criminal action related to the case, the US Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts said at the time of its November filing.

Acting US Attorney Joshua Levy in Massachusetts told Reuters that his office has been using civil forfeitures to recover funds stolen via cryptocurrency fraud schemes. “Despite the seemingly elusive nature of cryptocurrency transactions, law enforcement is adapting and evolving,” he said in a statement.

EU-China relations: Brussels to push outbound investment screening tools in January, amid concern over Beijing

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3244863/eu-china-relations-brussels-push-outbound-investment-screening-tools-january-amid-concern-over?utm_source=rss_feed

The EU will present an “initiative” on screening outbound investments in the new year, as part of a package of tools aimed at de-risking its trading ties with China.

The European Commission - the bloc’s secretariat - has been working with its member states and businesses on the economic security tools since June, trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said in a speech to the European Parliament on Tuesday. The new package is expected in January.

“We have started examining potential security risks related to outbound investments,” the former Latvian prime minister said.

“The EU and member states have a common interest in preventing the narrow set of technologies and know-how to leak to actors that will use them to enhance their military and intelligence capabilities and to undermine international peace and security.”

While Dombrovskis did not name China and the tools will be country-agnostic, they are broadly aimed at Beijing.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen regularly links such measures to China in public addresses and announced plans for an outbound screening regime during a keynote speech on China in March.

There is a sense among insiders that major capitals are coming around to the need for outbound investment screening, having initially vowed that what was seen variously as a “power grab” by Brussels or another form of protectionism would progress “over our dead bodies”, said one well-placed source.

In addition to outbound screening, the commission plans to update its regulations on screening of inbound direct investment in January, in a bid to prevent critical assets such as infrastructure from being bought by hostile or monopolistic forces.

Dombrovskis also announced a proposal on export controls - another thorny area among member states, with power for using such tools currently resting in their capitals.

China’s stockpiling of ASML chip-making machines push imports past 2023 estimates

“We need to improve our collective effectiveness and coordination. We also need to reinforce the EU’s capacity to act as a global actor in a context where multilateral export control regimes are under pressure and where we see several unilateral controls being introduced on critical technologies or critical inputs,” he told the parliament session in Strasbourg.

While de-risking is widely panned as a form of decoupling by China, the commission has pledged to make it as narrow as possible.

It has identified 10 key technology sectors, including advanced semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotech, as priorities in its economic security strategy.

In these sectors the commission will complete joint risk assessments on “technology security and leakages” in the new year, Dombrovskis said, along with risk assessments into “supply chain dependencies, critical infrastructure, and on weaponisation of economic dependencies and economic coercion”.

Other elements of January’s legislative package will be a suite of options around dual-use technologies, and a proposal to educate researchers into the dangers of technology leakages.

January’s legislative package will include options that would support research into technologies with commercial and military applications, also known as dual-use technologies, and a proposal to educate researchers about the consequences of innovation leakages.

The announcements came days after the EU-China summit, with trade issue one of the most important topics discussed. EU leaders accused China of deliberately orchestrating a record trade surplus with the bloc through the use of subsidies and preferential treatment for Chinese firms.

“While we achieved some acknowledgment from the Chinese leadership that trade should be balanced, our assessments of the causes of the imbalances differed significantly,” top EU diplomat Josep Borrell said in a blog post on Tuesday.

“Beijing views its trade surpluses as stemming from the innovative strength of Chinese industries and points to European export restrictions on advanced technologies, of which China would be willing to import more,” he said.

China’s electric vehicle exports to EU hit record level amid subsidy probe

Earlier in the day, Dombrovskis ignored pleas from lawmakers to start negotiations with Taiwan over bilateral trade, investment, or supply chain resilience deals.

Without acknowledging the requests, the Latvian told the parliament that the EU would instead work on technical areas such as ensuring market access for European wind turbine makers and European meat products to the self-governed island.

Also on Tuesday, the parliament threw its full support behind the Critical Raw Materials, a piece of legislation aimed at weaning the union off its dependencies on China for key imports.

“Since the Russian war against Ukraine and an increasingly aggressive Chinese trade and industrial policy, cobalt, lithium and other raw materials have also become a geopolitical factor,” read a parliament press release.

The legislation was adopted with 549 votes to 43, with 24 abstentions and will enter into law once endorsed by member states.

In global shipping, it’s China vs South Korea, and Seoul is securing its shipbuilding secrets

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3244832/global-shipping-its-china-vs-south-korea-and-seoul-securing-its-shipbuilding-secrets?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s rapid advancements in shipbuilding pose a rising challenge to one of South Korea’s darling industries while adding to expectations that a winner-take-all scenario could escalate the economic rivalry between the two nations.

In response to Beijing inaugurating its largest home-grown cruise ship and several LNG ships, Seoul has stepped up competition for global orders while striving to maintain an edge in high-value ship manufacturing.

Meanwhile, industry analysts say South Korea is looking to keep its shipbuilding expertise under wraps, for fear of being copied and losing business.

“Chinese firms aiming to move up the value chain will have to turn to somewhere else to seek the know-how,” said Li Zhenghao, a senior surveyor with the Shanghai office of ship-classification agency Korean Register.

China’s LNG expansions reflect critical push to maintain energy security

He was speaking in Shanghai last week at Marintec China, a maritime conference and exhibition that was attended by hundreds of international marine firms, including Korean shipyards.

Shipbuilding is a pillar industry of South Korea. Its dominance in the high-end sector, however, is facing mounting challenges from China, which has already outpaced its neighbour in many general manufacturing sectors by embracing low-cost strategies and technological innovation.

Carl Martin, a technical researcher with MRC Inc, a Busan-based maker of hi-tech navigation and communications equipment for various sea vessels, said Chinese shipyards have more capacity for mainstream bulk and container vessels, but Korean builders have more of the necessary skills to build LNG tankers and more eco-friendly vessels.

“It makes the two nations a perfect pair that can serve the global shipbuilding sector,” he said at the expo. “All players want to develop sophisticated vessels, and my experience with Chinese engineers is that they move quickly up the learning curve.”

Industry insiders also point to de facto tech-export restrictions that Seoul enacted in late 2020. The restrictions, part of a list of core technologies compiled by the Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, covered high-value-added vessels such as super-container ships, low-temperature liquefaction tankers such as LNG tankers, large cruise ships, and vessels that use electric-propulsion systems.

They also included advanced engines; propulsion and automation systems; and core ship-material-manufacturing technologies.

Korean shipbuilders have largely pulled out of their Chinese factories – Samsung Heavy Industries closed its factory in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, two years ago and sold another China factory in Rongcheng, Shandong province, earlier this year. Bilateral exchanges of tech and cooperation in the field is very limited.

Last week, China’s vice-minister for commerce, Wang Shouwen, and South Korea’s trade minister, Ahn Duk-geun, met in Beijing and agreed to establish a dialogue mechanism on export controls and to activate a hotline for supply chains of major industry items. But details about the talks, such as whether they involved semiconductors or shipbuilding, were unavailable.

Last year, Korean shipyards delivered 89 per cent of the world’s new LNG and large crude carriers with capacities of more than 250,000 deadweight tonnage, according to South Korea’s trade ministry.

However, Chinese builders excel in annual deliveries and order intake. Data from maritime consulting firm Clarksons shows that global ship-order volume was 38.03 million compensated gross tonnages (CGT) in the first 11 months of 2023, or 1,746 ships if converted into standard ship tonnages. China bagged the lion’s share with 21.89 million CGT, or 995 ships, while Korea’s orders slumped 39 per cent, year on year, to 9.55 million CGT, or 201 ships.

Zeng Ji, a professor of ocean science and engineering with Shanghai Maritime University, said China is developing its own technologies for home-grown LNG ships.

“We must admit that Korean firms are still leading in design, model development, standard-setting, construction management and branding and marketing,” Zeng said. “However, the manpower shortage [in South Korea] is a big drag.”

As South Korea and Japan tilt to US, economic ties with China present dilemma

The manpower crunch was earlier mentioned by Clarksons, despite Samsung, HD Hyundai, Daewoo and Hanwha being inundated with orders.

Hu Shimin, a transport analyst with Beijing-based Citic Securities, said in a note that Korea’s production woes presented opportunities for Chinese shipyards to catch up, because China has growing market demand for huge LNG tankers, and there is room for it to advance in value chains and green shipping initiatives.

Christian Damsgaard, head of naval architecture at Danish ship-design company Knud E. Hansen, argued that when the world is facing a production bottleneck amid a green transition, competition should give way to collaboration.

“Builders from both countries can thrive when the industry is in a boom,” he said at the Shanghai fair.

House committee calls for reset on China-U.S. economic relations

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/12/12/us-china-economy-war/2023-12-12T02:23:37.125Z

Members of a bipartisan committee on China are calling for a reset on the U.S.-China economic relationship, laying out over 130 policy recommendations for sweeping changes to how Washington governs trade, investment and security with the world’s second biggest economy.

The report, released Tuesday by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, contains a broad legislative blueprint that — if followed — could ratchet up duties on Chinese goods, significantly curtail certain U.S. investments in China and further restrict or ban U.S. market access for companies including TikTok, as well as drone makers, chip manufacturers and telecommunications groups.

It also lays out a strategy for cushioning the blow to U.S. companies and banks from the potential shock waves of a partial decoupling and — in more serious scenarios — protect banks and enact sweeping economic penalties against Beijing in the event of conflict.

“We have to do everything in our power to prevent that from happening. And I think that one of those areas of instability is the economic relationship,” the committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, (Ill.) told The Washington Post. “We now have to size up where we are, recognize the reality of the situation and protect our interests.”

The report is the summation of months of investigation by the committee, which held its first hearing just nine months ago and has become a rare example of bipartisan cooperation amid fierce division in the House.

That bipartisan consensus that the economic relationship needs a major overhaul comes despite a relative recent thawing of relations between Washington and Beijing, following a meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping last month where the two leaders agreed to restore military communications and strengthen cooperation on counternarcotics — modest but meaningful advances following a year of turmoil.

At House hearing on Chinese Communist Party, bipartisan show of concern

More broadly, the committee report lays out a framework for unwinding some of the advantages afforded to China in the wake of its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, benefits some lawmakers say were mistaken in hindsight. The report calls for China to be removed from its current “Column 1” tariff classification — a status that confers regular duty rates on imported goods. China’s removal would undermine its “most favored nation” trading status and potentially levy higher tariffs on Chinese goods, making them more expensive to consumers and less competitive in the market.

The report said the move would “restore U.S. economic leverage to ensure the PRC abides by its trade commitments.” It did not clarify whether it recommended China be reclassified in its own category or join the small handful of countries that fall outside of normal trade relations with the United States and have higher duty rates, including Cuba, North Korea and — since the war in Ukraine — Russia and Belarus.

The committee report also calls for the renewal of the China 421 safeguard mechanism, a rule brought in after China’s accession to the WTO and abandoned in 2013 that would allow Washington to impose tariffs on Beijing without the requirement of proving unfair trade practices.

“China has never abided by the promises it made when it joined the WTO and when we moved to permanent normal trade relations. And as a consequence, we find ourselves dangerously dependent on the PRC in key areas — areas that they could be weaponized in the event of a crisis,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), chairman of the committee, told The Post.

Elsewhere, members stressed that the United States lacks an economic contingency plan in the event of war with Beijing, and recommended Washington develop strategies with allies to enact “severe diplomatic and economic costs” on Beijing, while calling on U.S. banks to undergo “stress tests” led by the Federal Reserve to assess their ability to withstand a sudden loss of access to China in the event of war.

It follows a September hearing held in New York by the committee with finance figures including Jay Clayton, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and a simulated war game conflict it hosted in April where the group assessed America’s potential economic and military response to a war over Taiwan.

The committee said at the time that in the hypothetical 2027 conflict, the global economy would lose trillions of dollars in the event of an ensuing economic blockade with China.

The committee’s work — including investigations into TikTok, human rights’ abuses in Xinjiang, and U.S. tech exports to China — have attracted fierce condemnation from Beijing.

China’s Foreign Ministry has accused the Biden administration and individual lawmakers of pursuing a policy of economic “bullying” with the goal of containing the legitimate growth of China and its companies.

“The relevant report, which aims at building walls and barriers and pushing for decoupling and severing supply chains, runs counter to the principles of market economy and fair competition, and will undermine the international economic and trading order and destabilize global industrial and supply chains. Such attempts serve no one’s interests,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Washington. He said that China will “will follow the developments closely and resolutely safeguard our rights and interests.”

House lawmakers said the committee’s report underscores the strong bipartisan support for tighter controls over Chinese economic practices and better preparation in the event of a crisis between the two superpowers.

New China committee report raises questions about California lab

“Getting bipartisan agreement on five recommendations is almost impossible, let alone 150. So I’m proud of the work that went into this from members on both sides of the aisle,” said Gallagher. “We are not calling for a complete decoupling, but a recognition of the fact that the status quo is failing,” he said.

In Tuesday’s report, the committee said it recommended legislation that would require large U.S. firms with investments in China to disclose the impacts of a sudden change in access to the Chinese market, as well as a law that would force any “foreign-adversary owned” social media firm — including TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance — to divest its stake in U.S.-operated social media products or risk a nationwide ban.

ByteDance returned to negotiations with the U.S. government in September, six months after the Biden administration gave the company a choice to sell the firm or risk a congressional bill that could ban the platform entirely.

The House report also proposed a bump in domestic funding support for competitive technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors and recommended that revenue from Chinese tariffs be used to advance U.S. national security and competitiveness as part of a broader strategy to “support workers to prepare for a period of increased trade tensions and uncertainty.”

Krishnamoorthi said that the group also wanted to send a message to the CCP that there was potential for a return to more positive relations if it were to change course. “But right now, we’ve got to protect ourselves,” he said.

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China’s development is biggest political priority at key econ meeting as leaders vow to counter risks, lift confidence in 2024

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3244856/chinas-development-biggest-political-priority-key-econ-meeting-leaders-vow-counter-risks-lift?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s development is its biggest political priority, Beijing said after its just-concluded annual tone-setting economic conference, signalling what could be a strong tilt towards economic growth in 2024.

And to that end, leadership pledged to orchestrate a variety of pro-growth policies and ramp up their coordination, including that of non-economic departments, to deliver much-needed economic stability in a time of considerable uncertainties and headwinds.

“We must centre on economic construction and high-quality development, turning Chinese-style modernisation blueprints into reality,” a statement said after the two-day central economic work conference that concluded on Tuesday, according to party mouthpiece Xinhua.

The meeting took place as Beijing stands at a critical juncture in its efforts to consolidate the nation’s economic recovery, revive business confidence and bolster new sectors, including the digital economy, to power economic growth over the long run.

What GDP target must China set for 2024 to double its economy by 2035?

China is trying to stay on a path toward doubling its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, relative to 2020 levels – meaning the economy must grow by at least 4.8 per cent annually.

“We will unveil more policies that are able to stabilise expectations, growth and jobs,” the readout said.

A number of government advisers and economists have said they expect Beijing to announce a 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5 per cent” – the same as the target set for 2023 – on the condition of more expansionary policies.

Leadership has acknowledged that insufficient demand, overcapacity in some industries, and weak expectations were major risks hampering growth.

They vowed to maintain policy continuity – including an expansionary fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy – to prop up the economy and encourage foreign investors to come to China at a time when some multinationals and business groups say the country has lost some of its shine.

“Beijing realises that it cannot rely solely on strong stimulus policies to boost social expectations. It needs to create an internal impetus for the economy through greater reforms and opening up,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

There are obstacles in domestic circulation, and uncertainties in the external environment have increased, the statement said.

To enhance consistency in macroeconomic policies, Beijing will incorporate non-economic policies into the overall consistency assessment.

“It is necessary to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies,” the statement said, adding that China must “strengthen economic publicity, guide public opinion, and play up the bright prospects of China’s economy”.

And in their latest attempt to address concerns among foreign investors, policymakers vowed to expand market access to the telecom and medical-care sectors, address issues related to cross-border data flow and government-procurement practices.

China proposes relaxing security reviews for most cross-border data flows

China’s economy has struggled to find its footing in the past year, after loosening pandemic restrictions that had suppressed economic growth. A worsening property sector continues to be the biggest drag, despite Beijing’s best efforts.

Other challenges for the upcoming year include getting people to spend money again, weak external demand and simmering geopolitical tensions, according to economists.

During the two-day meeting, authorities prioritised tech innovation, with an emphasis on upgrading traditional industries and improving the resiliency and security of key manufacturing chains.

“It is necessary to promote industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation, especially subversive and cutting-edge technologies, to spawn new industries, new models and new momentum,” the statement said.

Particularly, they identified the digital economy, artificial intelligence and strategic sectors such as biomedical manufacturing and commercial space aviation as new avenues to a brighter industrial future in China.

The statement also mentioned “establishing the new before abolishing the old”, which was similarly discussed at a Politburo meeting on Friday, suggesting bigger steps would be taken to stabilise the ailing property market.

Beijing also vowed to enhance food security, with agricultural improvements.

And leadership pledged to tackle areas that impede foreigners’ access to China for business, study or travel, after a recent move to implement unilateral visa-free policies to six countries.

“It takes many departments to tear down barriers to easier entries for foreigners, and it remains to be seen if non-economy departments will be quick to implement and work in tandem with economic departments,” said Alex Ma, a professor of public administration at Peking University.

Why China’s vocational school drive is causing ‘strong anxiety among parents’

Beijing has also acknowledged that issues involving coordination between several government departments may also be affecting the economy’s performance, Ma noted.

“We will see more top-down coordination,” Ma said.

The annual meeting often sets an economic growth target for the coming year, but that number is likely to remain known only to party elites before they solicit views among advisers and economists.

The GDP target, together with the fiscal deficit ratio, local bond quota and unemployment control target, will be officially released and then approved at the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress in March.

“Next year, China will rely more on the financial strength of the central government, as the current local debt problem is severe, and local government finances are tight,” said Ding at Standard Chartered Bank.

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Oops. Joe Biden mixes up Chinese leaders, refers to Deng Xiaoping instead of Xi Jinping

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244818/oops-us-president-joe-biden-mixes-his-chinese-leaders?utm_source=rss_feed

Social media users were quick to pile on to US President Joe Biden after he compounded his reputation for gaffes by confusing a long-dead Chinese leader for the incumbent.

Biden made the slip while promoting his economic policy on a stop at a wind tower manufacturer in Colorado late last month, according to footage posted online.

“I’ve said this to Deng Xiaoping in the Himalayas, and I’ve said this to every world leader: It’s never, never, never been a good bet to bet against the American people,” Biden said.

Deng, China’s paramount leader throughout the 1980s, died more than 2½ decades ago and the reference was meant to be Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The White House transcript of Biden’s remarks was later changed to refer to Xi.

But not before users on X, formerly known as Twitter, reposted clips of the speech and left teasing comments about the 81-year-old US leader.

A handful of posts about Biden’s gaffe also appeared on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, where the censorship is tight. One post attracted more than 100 comments.

“His staff must be scared to death,” one user said, suggesting Biden’s team would be worried about damage to the US president’s election campaign.

“There is still a generation between [Biden and Deng]. How could they chat in the Himalayas?” another wrote.

Also corrected in the White House transcript was a mistaken reference to former South Korean president Moon Jae-in instead of his successor Yoon Suk-yeol.

Consensus no more? Democrats start to split from Republicans on China policy

Biden did meet Deng when he was at China’s helm. Biden was a senator in April 1979 when he went to China as part of the first US congressional delegation to the country since the founding of the People’s Republic.

Biden has also frequently mentioned his conversations with Xi, saying they have met many times and he has known the Chinese leader well since both of them were vice-presidents.

“I’ve long said – and I mean this – I was on the Tibetan Plateau with Xi Jinping. I travelled 17,000 miles with him,” the US president said in a speech in Chicago in June.

“I’ve spoken with him more than any other head of state because it started when I was vice-president and president Hu [Jintao] was the president, and he was the vice-president.”

Saudi Arabia urges Chinese firms to explore its ‘phenomenal demand’, cooperate in green transition

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3244833/saudi-arabia-urges-chinese-firms-explore-its-phenomenal-demand-cooperate-green-transition?utm_source=rss_feed

Saudi Arabia’s investment minister called for further facilitation on green transition collaborations with Chinese companies in Beijing on Tuesday, with bilateral trade and business exchanges in full swing amid their fraying relations with the West.

The Gulf state is striving to catch up on the global wave of clean energy transition, which provides China, a leader in the global new energy sector, an opportunity to grow investment and involvement in the region’s renewables development and beyond, Khalid al-Falih told the China-Saudi Investment Conference.

“We invite Chinese companies to participate in the green transition supply chain … in addition to investments, whether it is [foreign direct investment] or in our capital, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, there is significant project workload that requires participation from China’s project execution, project management companies,” said Falih.

“To the Chinese contractors, the Chinese material suppliers, please consider this phenomenal demand for your companies to engage in projects, including housing, city development, smart cities and so forth.”

China companies, such as JinkoSolar, the largest module manufacturer in the world, already occupy significant market share in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi Arabian state-owned ACWA Power has also signed multiple agreements with Chinese firms on solar, green hydrogen and water desalination projects.

During a visit to solar products manufacturer GCL System Integration on Sunday, Falih had also said that joint efforts as part of the Belt and Road Initiative had provided a driving force for bilateral cooperation.

He added that China had also become a reliable partner for Saudi Arabia in achieving its “Vision 2030” strategic framework and road map for its future development.

China-Middle East to step up trade amid strained ties with Western partners

“The Saudi side hopes that [GCL’s] new energy materials technology project will land in Saudi Arabia as soon as possible, providing green and low-carbon energy for Saudi Arabia and the Middle East,” Falih said, according to Chinese state media.

China has been Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner for a decade, while the Kingdom has been China’s largest trading partner in the Middle East since 2001.

Bilateral trade exceeded more than US$116 billion in 2022, up by over 30 per cent from the previous year, according to official data.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has long been China’s largest oil supplier, with shipments of 87.5 million metric tonnes (641 million barrels) last year.

China’s commerce vice-minister Li Fei told the conference on Tuesday that bilateral cooperation should continue focusing on innovation, “embrace the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, strengthen partnerships in cutting-edge fields, such as artificial intelligence, life sciences, quantum information, and high-end manufacturing”.

On Sunday, Falih also met with Beijing mayor Yin Yong, who said that the vast Chinese market harbours abundant demand and investment opportunities.

“Beijing is vigorously developing hi-tech industries, and willing to closely exchange with Saudi Arabia, with an aim to deepen mutual cooperation in industrial investment, technological innovation, digital economy, smart cities and other fields,” Yin said, according to Chinese state media.

“The goal is to promote two-way investment by enterprises from both regions, enhance exchanges in urban governance, and exchange experiences on the preparations for the Olympics.”

With investment in sports a significant part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy, it has been confirmed as the host of the 2029 Asian Winter Games and 2034 Asian Games, while the Kingdom has set its sights on hosting the Olympic Games as well as other high-profile events, including the Fifa World Cup in 2034.

Beijing, meanwhile, hosted the Summer Olympic Games in 2008 and Winter Games last year.

Last month, the People’s Bank of China and the Saudi Central Bank signed a three-year swap agreement for a maximum value of 50 billion yuan (US$7 billion), or 26 billion riyal, to foster bilateral commerce in both currencies, opening the way for trade to flourish.

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh in December last year saw US$50 billion of investment agreements signed, and resulted in a series of government to business level visits.

Another US$10 billion of deals followed during June’s Arab-China Business Conference in Riyadh, covering technology, renewable energy, agriculture, real estate, minerals, logistics, tourism and healthcare.

‘Not a toy’: China circus charges US$2.8 to let children ride tiger for photos, faces legal action

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/environment/article/3244750/not-toy-china-circus-charges-us28-let-children-ride-tiger-photos-faces-legal-action?utm_source=rss_feed

A circus that allowed children to ride on a tiger’s back for photo opportunities, charging 20 yuan (US$2.8) a picture, has sparked heated discussions among online viewers.

The cruel and potentially dangerous activity was highlighted on December 6 in a video posted online showing youngsters being lifted onto the animal at a circus in Tiandong county in southern China’s Guangxi province.

In the video, a tiger is seen lying on a metal frame with its hind legs tied down. Despite the restraint, the tiger’s front legs and its tail were moving, raising safety concerns. Sources claimed the tiger was not sedated.

A man is seated on a chair in front of the tiger with a camera and lighting, capturing the interactions between the tiger and the children while others eagerly queue for their turn.

In response to public safety concerns, the Cultural, Sports and Tourism Bureau told state broadcaster CCTV the circus had been conducting “unauthorised performances” at Hengli Square in Tiandong county.

Following an investigation, the authority issued a notice demanding the immediate cessation of performances and initiated legal action against the circus operators.

Although the circus is now closed, the video continues to provoke an online backlash, with viewers expressing concern and dismay.

“What if the tiger injures or even eats a child?” Asked one fearful commenter.

Many are also worried about the animal’s welfare.

“This tiger must have endured much to submit to such treatment. Circus operators are irresponsible, exploiting the animal to satisfy human curiosity,” one person pointed out.

“I feel so sorry for the tiger. It has gone from being the ‘king of beasts’ to a pitiful creature being ridden by humans,” said another.

A fourth person remarked: “Children are fearless, adults are ignorant, and businessmen are unethical. Treating a tiger like a toy not only lacks basic ethics but also gambles with human lives. It’s a dangerous farce!”

Circuses and zoos have long exploited animals under the guise of entertainment.

In April 2020, a zoo in Yunnan province in southwestern China launched a “tiger-fishing” attraction, where visitors could dangle pieces of meat to attract the animals.

The video showed many visitors, including children, on a platform without protective barriers holding poles with lines dangling meat above three adult tigers.

China’s online censors target short videos, artificial intelligence and ‘pessimism’ in latest crackdown

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244838/chinas-online-censors-target-short-videos-artificial-intelligence-and-pessimism-latest-crackdown?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s internet censors are targeting short videos that spread “misleading content” as part of its latest online crackdown.

The Cyberspace Administration of China said on Tuesday that it would target short videos that spread rumours about people’s lives or promote incorrect values such as pessimism – included for the first time – and extremism.

China’s net watchdog pledges fast lane for businesses to report online slander

The campaign will also target fake videos generated using artificial intelligence, the watchdog said.

The country’s top censorship body has been running an annual online crackdown known as Qing Lang, which means clear and bright, since 2020.

It said this year’s crackdown would benefit people’s mental health and create a healthy space for competition that would help the short video industry develop.

The country’s best known short video platform is Douyin – the Chinese sibling of TikTok – but content is shared on a number of other Chinese social media platforms, including major players such as WeChat and Weibo.

The watchdog said one of the targets of the latest campaign would be content producers who make up stories about social minorities to win public sympathy. It will also crack down on people staging incidents, “making up fake plots and spreading panic”.

It also mentioned several incorrect values that it wanted to remove from the internet including “the wrong career values”, “promoting pessimism and extremism” and “extravagance and money worship”.

In March this year the head of the watchdog said the last crackdown had targeted other incorrect values in areas such as marriage, money, history and relations between ethnic groups.

But this year marks the first time that pessimism was listed as one of the incorrect values and comes as the country’s economy continues to struggle to get back on track after the Covid-19 pandemic.

In recent months several videos have been circulating online showing the plight of would-be housebuyers affected by the crisis engulfing the country’s property sector –heightening concern among internet users about their future economic prospects.

Some of the most widely shared footage involved a couple in the central province of Henan, who won widespread sympathy after documenting how a struggling property developer had stopped work on an unfinished apartment for which they had already made a down payment.

China’s internet watchdog to boost tip-offs to stamp out ‘illegal’ content

Later updates highlighted their increasing desperation and said they had been assaulted by the developer when asking for a refund. Late last month most of their social media accounts were suspended.

The crackdown will also prohibit AI-generated fake short videos that manipulate or make up content, or illegally use other people’s voices or faces.

In July this year the watchdog introduced provisional regulations on generative AI, which it said were based on following the core ideology of socialism, eliminating prejudice and respect for privacy and intellectual property.

According to the cyberspace administration, between 2021 and 2022, the Qing Lang crackdown led to the suspension of 1.35 billion accounts, the deletion of 12.63 million illegal or improper messages and shut down 10,500 websites.

China’s Wang Yi urges coordination with Iran in call to discuss Israel-Gaza war

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244807/chinas-wang-yi-urges-coordination-iran-call-discuss-israel-gaza-war?utm_source=rss_feed

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with his Iranian counterpart – their second since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war – as fears persisted that a second front could open along the Lebanon border.

Beijing hoped to “coordinate with Iran on international and multilateral occasions”, Wang told Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Monday, according to the foreign ministry.

In a discussion focused on the conflict in Gaza, Wang also called for strengthening communication, mutual trust and cooperation with Tehran following the agreements reached between the two state leaders in February and August.

China and Iran vow to work together for peace amid Israel-Gaza war

“China’s stance on the Palestinian-Israel conflict is to pursue an immediate ceasefire, ensure humanitarian aid and resume a ‘two-state solution’,” Wang said, reiterating Beijing’s previous statements on its approach to the conflict.

He said Beijing’s position was “aligned” with the Arab world and had a “high level of consensus” with Islamic countries and the international community and noted that China was willing to work with Arab and Islamic countries to create conditions for a return to a two-state solution.

He added that the international community should speak out more strongly and take a “more coherent stance” on the crisis.

The call came as skirmishes between Hezbollah – an Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon – and Israeli forces continued, with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant threatening his country would “act with all the means at its disposal” against Hezbollah through military actions if diplomacy did not work, according to the Times of Israel.

Iraq is also reportedly trying to rein in attacks on US military facilities by Iran-backed groups in the country.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsened as Israel intensified fighting with Hamas after a brief truce ended, causing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to invoke a rarely used power to warn the Security Council of the global threat posed by the war.

But Guterres’ call failed to push forward a draft resolution for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza and immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, which was ultimately vetoed by the United States.

Iran is believed to be a key military and financial backer of Hamas, but it has denied any involvement in the group’s sudden assault on Israel on October 7, which ignited the war in Gaza.

In his conversation with Wang, Amirabdollahian warned that the war in Gaza had “already expanded” in West Asia, according to Iran’s state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency.

“If the attacks on Gaza are not stopped immediately, there is the possibility that the region explodes at any time, with all parties losing control”, Amirabdollahian said, blaming Washington for not understanding the danger of the “further expansion of the war”.

In a speech at an international forum in Doha on Monday, the Iranian foreign minister said Tehran did not believe in a two-state solution.

He repeated Iran’s proposal that a referendum should be held to determine the fate of Palestine, with only the descendants of those who lived there before 1948 being permitted to vote, Reuters reported.

Iran says it hopes to work with China to de-escalate Israel-Gaza war

Beijing has strengthened diplomatic exchanges and multilateral alliances with the heavily-sanctioned state this year, but it has taken a more cautious approach since the start of the war.

Wang called Amirabdollahian to discuss the Gaza war for the first time in October, about a week after the conflict broke out.

The two countries have held several exchanges since late November, with former veteran diplomat Yang Wanming and Communist Party international department chief Liu Jianchao taking separate trips to Iran.

Earlier this year, China helped broker a deal to resume diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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China’s role in spotlight as Cop28 climate talks in Dubai enter final phase

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244800/chinas-role-spotlight-cop28-climate-talks-dubai-enter-final-phase?utm_source=rss_feed

With just hours to go before the United Nations climate summit in Dubai was scheduled to end, there was some good news and some bad news.

The good news was China and the United States, the world’s top two polluters, had been in “intensive” talks over the past two weeks in the United Arab Emirates to find a climate deal “acceptable to all parties”, as China’s top negotiator Xie Zhenhua put it.

It shows despite their intensifying divisions, the rival powers can still work together on some of the most pressing issues when they want to.

The bad news is that such a deal still hangs in the air, at least at the time of writing. The biggest sticking point throughout the Dubai talks, known as Cop28, is about finding consensus among nearly 200 countries on cutting fossil fuel use, including coal.

The talks look set to run over time, as the US, Europe and low-lying island countries are angry at the draft deal released on Monday by the UAE that scrapped calls for fossil fuel use to be “phased out”.

Saudi Arabia, other oil-rich countries and India have led the resistance to the idea – but China’s attitude is also critical to Cop28, which US climate negotiator John Kerry described as the “last” chance to keep temperature rises at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

China has been deliberately vague on the issue so far. As the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, it has been on a post-Covid spree that means the country’s carbon emissions and coal imports are expected to hit record levels this year.

Amid reports that China has been blocking discussions about “phasing out” fossil fuels, Xie dodged a question on the issue at a press event on Saturday.

“The positions on the issue are currently very antagonistic,” he said, adding that an agreement he reached with Kerry last month in Sunnylands, California could be used as a solution in Dubai.

Beijing did not pledge to phase out dirty coal or stop building new coal power plants in the agreement, which instead called for a rapid expansion of renewable energy to “accelerate the substitution of coal, oil and gas generation”.

In a sign of China’s influence at Cop28, the latest draft deal included language similar to the US-China agreement, which focused on oil and gas used in power generation, not through the wider economy.

Xie, who said Cop28 was “the most difficult” he had ever seen in his 16 years as China’s climate negotiator, nonetheless expressed optimism about the outcome.

Two years ago at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, countries led by the US also tried to push through a draft containing a commitment to phase out coal, but it was later toned down due to opposition by China and India.

According to Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society, the stalemate showed “China wants to stick to Sunnylands whereas the US wants to go beyond”.

Although the US-China climate agreement has set the floor for Cop28, the countries will have to be more ambitious to find solutions to issues that were not covered by the talks in California, he said.

For Beijing, the fossil fuels debate also has an unexpected upside by helping divert attention away from issues such as its expanding coal sector and surging carbon emissions, and Beijing’s reticence about a newly established fund to help the most vulnerable nations address climate impacts.

Climate envoy says China has ‘done a lot’ on methane despite criticism of plan

China has also been largely exempted from the infamous Fossil of the Day awards organised by Climate Action Network, an international green group that routinely calls out countries for “doing their best to be the worst” at the climate summits.

While Japan, the US and other advanced economies – as well as developing ones such as Brazil and South Africa – have been named and shamed this year for inadequate efforts to tackle climate change, China has seldom got the award in the past decade.

Vietnam, another one-party socialist country, was also singled out over its latest crackdowns on NGOs and climate activists.

This has raised questions about whether China gets preferential treatment from international environmental groups. According to the Jiji Press, Japanese officials complained that their country was selected for the award over the alleged “greenwashing” for the use of coal-fired power plants.

The last times China was singled out were during the Warsaw talks in 2013 when it helped block a reference to equity in a draft text, and a dishonourable mention in 2015 for sinking a temperate target with India.

According to the Jiji report, an official from the green group did not deny China was getting preferential treatment, but expressed concerns that a fossil award may anger Beijing, “possibly leading to a crackdown on environmental groups in the country”.

How China and EU can transcend zero-sum mindsets and create a better world

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244678/how-china-and-eu-can-transcend-zero-sum-mindsets-and-create-better-world?utm_source=rss_feed

Given the low expectations, the EU-China summit that concluded last week could be deemed a success. The European Union was able to air its key concerns directly with China’s top leadership, who appear to have listened attentively.

Before and during the summit, Beijing offered warm words about EU-China cooperation. There are wide differences lurking below such rhetoric, though. While the summit probably bought China some time, the long-term future of relations will be shaped by the concrete action Beijing chooses to take.

Human rights and a host of other issues have derailed ratification of the EU-China Investment Agreement, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine precipitated a further deterioration in EU-China relations. As long as the fighting continues in Ukraine, China acting as a lifeline for Russia will be viewed disapprovingly in Europe.

Framing the EU’s stance against Russia in moralistic terms risks blinding many in Europe to the geopolitical and economic logic that China needs Russia in its great power rivalry with the United States. In managing its delicate triangular relationships with Brussels and Moscow, Beijing could halt further exports of dual-use technologies to Russia – including by Russian companies based in China – without admitting any fault, as a way to start rebuilding trust with Europe.

The larger issue is how to fix the EU’s trade deficit with China, which approached €400 billion (US$430.8 billion) last year but is expected to shrink this year. While EU exports to China have been growing gradually, China’s exports to the EU have expanded drastically in the past few years.

EU-China Summit: the trust deficit threatening trade and diplomacy

Beneath the expected rhetoric, with each side blaming the other, the underlying causes of the EU’s trade deficit are complex and manifold. For instance, the sharp rise in energy prices in Europe after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine made some European industries uncompetitive for a time.

Meanwhile, manufactured goods such as chemicals, machinery and vehicles were the largest EU imports from China last year. Mature industries like these tend not to receive significant government subsidies in China.

The large and growing trade deficit poses significant political problems for Europe. France is expected to soon adopt rules to exclude some Asian-made electric vehicles from state subsidies, with the list of qualifying vehicles to be announced this week. Exclusions will not be limited to Chinese brands but will also cover European brands made in China.

Given that China is unlikely to want to reduce its exports to the EU, it must instead find ways to increase its imports from Europe, from French wines to Airbus planes. As important as securing a level playing field is, trade outcomes are just as important. China must welcome European companies with greater market access, intellectual property protection and local financing.

While political tensions simmer, the EU and China have aligned interests in tackling climate change. There is vast scope for joint innovation and deployment of green technologies. With huge capital requirements, even Germany faces fiscal constraints as it tries to meet its environmental ambitions.

While China has invested substantially in renewable energy in the past decade, the EU has tightened screening of Chinese investments. Unlike Russian oil and gas, foreign investments in green energy pose little risk to energy security. Nevertheless, as exemplified by Italy’s recent announcement to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, there will be a process of rebuilding trust before Chinese investments are welcome across Europe again.

The most fertile ground for EU-China cooperation is not in each other’s geographic sphere but, rather, in neutral regions such as Africa. The African continent urgently needs climate adaptation measures, as well as food security and sustainable economic development, towards which both Europe and China can contribute.

The EU launched its Global Gateway as a competitor to the belt and road but, working together, both schemes could bring greater benefits to African communities. The EU and China could selectively co-finance projects in transport networks, clean energy grids, climate-smart agriculture and digital connectivity. Given the high level of economic and developmental engagement by both sides in Africa, they are naturally complementary partners on the continent.

China has made clear its desire for collaboration with Europe on technology. In the context of growing US restrictions on China, such cooperation would open doors in areas such as renewable energy, food and agriculture, biotechnology, civil aviation and advanced manufacturing. Both sides have much to bring to such partnerships, but they would require a high level of trust which will take time and hard work to rebuild.

Reaching China’s desired level of technological collaboration with the EU will require several concrete steps to prepare for greater engagement over time.

It must halt export of dual-use technologies to Russia, facilitate European imports and investments with greater market access, and collaborate on climate change and sustainable development in Africa. To renew technological collaboration, a good place to start would be in less-sensitive areas such as agriculture and sustainable urbanisation.

Nuanced statecraft and realistic compromises are needed to transcend zero-sum mindsets. Real progress in overcoming structural tensions requires matching rhetoric with tangible actions and compromises on both sides.

Europe can chart its own course between the US and China as it builds on shared interests, while China must weigh the compromises it is prepared to make to advance its long-term interests. Fundamental political differences remain, yet they cannot eclipse the two sides’ shared destiny. With the right leadership, greater EU-China collaboration is not only possible but necessary, to uphold their responsibilities to build a better world.

South China Sea: Xi Jinping calls for ‘mutually acceptable solutions’ as he visits Vietnam

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244796/south-china-sea-xi-jinping-calls-mutually-acceptable-solutions-he-visits-vietnam?utm_source=rss_feed

President Xi Jinping has called for Beijing and Hanoi to find “mutually acceptable solutions” to their South China Sea dispute and achieve long-term regional stability, as he begins a two-day visit to Vietnam.

In an article published in Hanoi mouthpiece Nhan Dan on Tuesday, Xi said the two countries had “camaraderie plus brotherhood” and should “always keep in mind our shared visions and missions”.

“Both sides need to act on the common understandings reached by the leaders of our two parties and countries, properly manage differences on maritime issues, and jointly look for mutually acceptable solutions,” he said.

Although the two communist countries have friendly bilateral ties, they have unresolved disputes in the South China Sea. They fought a brief war over the Paracel Islands in 1974 and had another military skirmish in the Spratly Islands in 1988.

Most recently, a Chinese survey vessel and its escort ships were accused of violating Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in May.

Xi said both countries “should vigorously promote cooperation, and make due efforts to build an enabling external environment for our respective development and to realise long-term stability and security in our region”.

It comes as tensions have been rising in the contested South China Sea – which China claims almost in its entirety – with a number of confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in recent months.

During his two-day state visit, Xi is expected to meet the head of Vietnam’s Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, and President Vo Van Thuong. Xi last met Thuong in Beijing two months ago and Trong in 2022, also in Beijing.

The visit comes 10 days after Foreign Minister Wang Yi co-chaired a meeting on bilateral cooperation in Hanoi, where he met Thuong and “reached a new consensus on strengthening cooperation and promoting the sound and steady development of China-Vietnam relations in all fields”, according to a Xinhua report.

In his article, Xi highlighted the “traditional friendship” between the two neighbours that normalised diplomatic ties in 1991. Xi described them as “vocal advocates of multilateralism” that have “always treated each other with sincerity”.

“No matter how the global environment has changed, our two parties and countries have worked together to uphold peace and tranquillity, pursue development and cooperation, and promote prosperity and progress,” Xi wrote, adding that they had found a “promising path” of cooperation.

South China Sea: China’s envoy to Philippines protests over weekend clashes

As Beijing and Hanoi’s “comprehensive strategic partnership” entered its 15th year, Vietnam elevated relations with the US to the same level in September, when President Joe Biden visited the country. The Chinese foreign ministry on Monday hinted that Beijing was seeking to upgrade ties with Hanoi.

“An elevated bilateral relationship is a natural result in accordance with the overwhelming trend,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said. “Standing at a new historical point, the two sides will be guided by the high-level common understandings … and make new progress in growing our comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.”

Xi also touched on cultural exchanges in the article, pointing to the popularity of Chinese literature, film and television productions in Vietnam, and the success of Vietnamese pop stars in China.

“The small creeks of ever closer people-to-people interactions are converging into a mighty river of friendly ties between China and Vietnam,” he said.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Chinese ambassador to Vietnam Xiong Bo said “political trust” between the two countries had deepened following Trong’s visit to China, and senior leaders had maintained “close strategic exchanges”.

“The two party general secretaries reached common perceptions on the promotion of China-Vietnam relations to a new height and defined the direction for the development of the bilateral relations in the new period,” Xiong was quoted as saying by the official Vietnam News Agency.

China population: with falling fertility rate ‘an unavoidable norm’, Beijing told focus should shift to people not numbers

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3244794/china-population-falling-fertility-rate-unavoidable-norm-beijing-told-focus-should-shift-people-not?utm_source=rss_feed

China should focus less on fertility rates and the number of births, and instead focus on providing better services for prospective parents, while also respecting people who are reluctant to start a family, as it faces a potentially irreversible population decline, according to a research institute report.

Calls for demographic solutions have been unabating since China’s overall population suffered a first decline in more than six decades last year, while new births also dropped below 10 million for the first time in modern history.

And with no positive turning point in sight, a demographic crisis is set to remain one of the most profound challenges to China’s slowing economic growth.

“Fertility policies should focus on ensuring the reproductive environment for groups with strong current fertility demands, while being inclusive of those with weaker fertility intentions,” according to a survey published last week by the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology.

“The statistics should stop being overly focused on fluctuations in fertility rates or the number of births.”

China’s birth rate peaked in 2016, and in the past five years, the annual number of newborns has fallen by around 40 per cent, with women in China giving birth to 9.56 million babies last year.

Beijing continues to search for ways to ease its demographic crisis, and rolled out a slew of pronatalist policies, however, demographers believe that it would take time for the public to rebuild the trust lost during the pandemic.

“Greater attention should be paid to data changes related to improving the quality of child-rearing, including but not limited to changes in the scale of day care facilities, the enhancement of prenatal and postnatal care quality and increased investment in preschool teacher training,” said the Institute of Public Policy analysis by policy analyst Yang Tingxuan.

Last year, the number of kindergartens in China fell for the first time in 15 years, while the number of students enrolled in kindergartens and preschools also dropped, the Ministry of Education confirmed in July.

Unlocking reproductive potential requires a family-friendly and child-friendly environment that values individual development, family welfare and the easing of work-family conflicts, the survey added.

Analysts have said births in China could plunge further to between 7 million and 8 million this year, further clouding its demographic outlook.

China’s fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022 from 1.3 in 2020, according to estimates from the China Population and Development Research Centre, which they said was the lowest level for countries with a population of over 100 million.

“While this remarkably low fertility rate may be partly attributed to the impact of the pandemic, the trend indicates that the decline has been gradual since the small peak of 1.88 in 2017,” the Institute of Public Policy survey said.

“This suggests that, with the fading effects of the fertility policy adjustments, the downward trend in fertility rates has become an unavoidable norm.”

The government should also take more proactive measures to coordinate childbirth policies, and protect the childbearing-age population from any penalties, the survey added.

South China Sea: China’s envoy to Philippines lodges protest in Manila over weekend clashes in disputed waterway

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244775/south-china-sea-chinas-envoy-philippines-lodges-protest-manila-over-weekend-clashes-disputed?utm_source=rss_feed

China’s envoy to the Philippines has lodged “strong protests” with Manila over multiple clashes in the South China Sea last week, urging the Southeast Asian country to “stop its maritime infringements” as tensions between the two countries escalated.

According to the Chinese embassy, Huang Xilian filed “solemn representations and strong protests” when he met Philippine foreign undersecretary Theresa Lazaro on Monday and stressed that China had “indisputable sovereignty” over islands in the South China Sea.

“China urges the Philippines to stop its maritime infringements and provocations, meet China halfway, return to the right track of dialogue and consultation to properly resolve differences, and jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea,” the embassy said.

Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed in two separate confrontations over the weekend near the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, two islands in the South China Sea claimed by both Beijing and Manila.

In one incident on Saturday, Manila’s National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea accused Chinese coastguard ships of firing water cannons at its vessels while conducting a routine resupply and rotation vessel. The task force called China’s actions “illegal” and called for Beijing to halt its “aggressive activities”.

Philippines ‘undeterred’ by South China Sea ‘provocations’, Marcos Jnr says

A similar face-off took place a day later, with the Philippines saying China’s coastguard “harassed, blocked and executed dangerous manoeuvres” on its civilian supply ships. China again used water cannons, according to Manila, causing damage to several vessels.

“The systematic and consistent manner in which the People’s Republic of China carries out these illegal and irresponsible actions puts into question and significant doubt the sincerity of its calls for peaceful dialogue,” the task force said in a statement.

However, the China Coast Guard said it had taken “control measures” against Philippine vessels in both incidents, adding on Sunday that one of Manila’s ships “ignored multiple serious warnings” and took a sudden turn in an “unprofessional and dangerous way”.

It accused the vessel of “deliberately colliding” with a coastguard ship, resulting in a scratch on the hull.

Asked about the incident on Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China had taken “necessary enforcement measures” against a Philippine vessel which “dangerously rammed” a Chinese coastguard ship.

She described China’s actions as “professional, restrained, justified and legitimate”, said the Philippines had “stirred up trouble” in the South China Sea and accused Manila of spreading disinformation over the incidents.

“We once again urge the Philippines to stop infringing on China’s sovereignty and making provocative moves, stop groundlessly attacking and smearing China, and avoid undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” she said.

The clashes over the weekend were the latest in a string of maritime confrontations between the two Asian nations in the South China Sea.

Scarborough Shoal has been a focal point of heightened tensions, after the Philippines carried out a “special operation” in September to remove a floating barrier installed by China.

Confrontations also flared near the Second Thomas Shoal – a submerged reef that is part of the contested Spratly Islands, known in China as the Nansha Islands.

The United States – a long-time ally of the Philippines – on Sunday backed Manila, saying China’s actions showed a “reckless disregard” for international law and the safety and livelihoods of Filipinos.

“Obstructing supply lines to this long-standing outpost and interfering with lawful Philippines maritime operations undermines regional stability,” said Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the US State Department.

“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions.”

G7 warns China on South China Sea, urges it to press Russia to exit Ukraine

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao said on Monday that the maritime disputes in the South China Sea were between China and the Philippines, and no third party was in a position to interfere.

“The US, out of selfish geopolitical calculations, has for some time been conniving at, emboldening and supporting the Philippines’ infringement and provocation in the South China Sea,” she said.

Eyes on the prize: China con artists feign blindness during beauty treatments, extort US$140,000 from clinics

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3244052/eyes-prize-china-con-artists-feign-blindness-during-beauty-treatments-extort-us140000-clinics?utm_source=rss_feed

Fraudsters in China used medical eye drops to feign blindness during cosmetic procedures, extorting more than one million yuan (US$140,000) from clinics over four months.

The scammers, surnamed Qian and Xu, owned a struggling beauty clinic in Yichang, Hubei province in central China which was suffering continuous financial losses due to their poor management.

After learning about cases in which people had used mydriatic eye drops to feign injuries and extort money, they were inspired to adopt a similar approach.

These eye drops relax the muscles of the eye and dilate the pupil.

Their scam included recruiting a nine-member “professional” team and meticulously assigning roles and responsibilities.

The two gang leaders’ extensive inside knowledge of the industry meant they were able to identify suitable targets, particularly those lacking formal qualifications, and school the others in extortion tactics.

Each fraud would begin with a gang member initiating an online conversation and making an appointment at a beauty clinic for hyaluronic acid injections in the face, which are administered as a complexion-boosting treatment to eliminate wrinkles.

They would then surreptitiously use the eye drops during the procedure and claim that something had gone wrong, causing eye pain and blindness.

The gang member would even propose going to the hospital, but once there they would not undergo examination.

Simultaneously, they would threaten, insult and exert psychological pressure in an attempt to coerce clinic operators into offering compensation.

Fearing legal action, most businesses complied and privately settled the disputes with amounts that ranged from 40,000 yuan (US$5,600) to 100,000 yuan.

From August to November 2022, the gang successfully extorted more than one million yuan from about 20 beauty clinics.

The ill-gotten gains were divided among the team and also used to offset the financial losses of Qian and Xu’s failing business.

The court sentenced the 13 defendants to prison terms ranging from nine months to 10 years for extortion, with fines that varied from 2,000 to 50,000 yuan.

The case, reported by Procuratorial Daily, the official media outlet of The Supreme People’s Procuratorate of China, has left many people stunned on mainland social media.

“These individuals sure are audacious,” one person commented.

“These scammers are aware that these beauty clinics lack the necessary medical qualifications. I wonder if the relevant authorities are aware of this?” another asked.

“This is truly astonishing,” a third remarked.

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China overtakes US as branded coffee shop capital of the world

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/12/china-us-branded-coffee-shop

The branded coffee chain craze may trace its roots to a single Starbucks in Seattle’s Pike Place market in 1971, but now China has toppled the US as the country with the most branded coffee shops.

The number of branded coffee shops in China increased by 58% over the past 12 months to a record 49,691 outlets, according to research by World Coffee Portal. That was more than 9,000 in excess of the 40,062 in the US, where the market grew by just 4%. The US had held the crown as the world’s biggest coffee shop market for the entire 20-year history of the research.

Jeffrey Young, the founder and chief executive of World Coffee Portal, said: “The east Asian coffee shop market is clearly experiencing rapid growth led by phenomenal outlet expansion in China, which has fast become a global coffee industry powerhouse.”

The local chains Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee rapidly expanded over the past year, adding 5,059 and 6,004 stores respectively. Luckin, founded only six years ago, has 13,273 stores in China, making it by far the biggest operator.

Starbucks, which opened its first shop in China in 1999, opened 785 stores in the country in 2023, taking its total there to 6,806. China is still the chain’s fastest-growing market but Cotti Coffee, founded by two former Luckin executives in August 2022, is rapidly catching up with 6,061.

Starbucks remains the largest branded coffee chain in east Asia, having opened 1,223 outlets in the past year to reach 13,524 stores in 15 markets. However, domestic operators such as South Korea’s Mega Coffee, Indonesia’s Tomoro Coffee and Malaysia’s Zus Coffee are challenging Starbucks’s dominance and increasing their market share.

“As the total east Asian branded coffee shop market matures, rapidly expanding operators are increasingly seeking international growth opportunities,” World Coffee Portal said. “Cotti Coffee has entered South Korea, Indonesia, Japan and Hong Kong since opening its first store in China in 2022, while Luckin Coffee, Kopi Kenangan and Compose Coffee all opened their first international stores within the last 12 months.”

Nvidia in talks with Biden administration about AI chip sales to China, US commerce chief Gina Raimondo says

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3244739/nvidia-talks-biden-administration-about-ai-chip-sales-china-us-commerce-chief-gina-raimondo-says?utm_source=rss_feed

The Biden administration is in discussions with Nvidia about permissible sales of artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China but emphasised that it cannot sell its most advanced semiconductors to Chinese firms.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, speaking in an interview with Reuters on Monday, said Nvidia “can, will and should sell AI chips to China because most AI chips will be for commercial applications”.

“What we cannot allow them to ship is the most sophisticated, highest-processing power AI chips, which would enable China to train their frontier models,” she added.

Raimondo said she spoke a week ago to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and he was “crystal clear. We don’t want to break the rules. Tell us the rules, we’ll work with you.”

Raimondo sent a warning to chip companies on AI chips at a forum last week in California. She said traditionally the Commerce Department drew a “cutline” and companies like Nvidia would create a new chip “just below” that line.

“That’s not productive,” Raimondo said. “I am telling you if you redesign a chip around a particular cutline that enables them to do AI, I am going to control it the very next day.”

Raimondo said Monday the department was working with Nvidia. “They want to do the right thing. Obviously they want to sell as many chips as possible.”

Nvidia declined to comment. Last week, Huang said the company was working closely with the US government to ensure new chips for the Chinese market were compliant with export curbs.

Raimondo separately said it was too soon to tell if the establishment of a commercial issues working group with China in August was working.

In November, China’s central bank granted a licence to a joint venture set up by MasterCard and China approved Broadcom’s US$69 billion acquisition of cloud-computing firm VMware. She called those “baby steps in the right direction”.

Raimondo said she was disappointed Chinese airlines had not started taking Boeing aeroplane deliveries. Boeing is still waiting to resume deliveries of its 737 MAX to Chinese airlines more than four years after they were halted following two deadly crashes. Boeing declined to comment.

Raimondo said US President Joe Biden raised Boeing last month during talks in California with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“We’re going to keep pressing,” Raimondo said. “There is no reason they shouldn’t make good on that commitment.”

Separately, Raimondo again called on Congress to pass legislation to address potential threats to national security from foreign apps like TikTok. Legislation has stalled to give the administration new tools to address security concerns around foreign-owned apps.

“We need the tools,” Raimondo said. “I don’t think it should be just banning TikTok – we don’t want get into the business of naming companies for so many reasons … Today it’s TikTok. Who knows what it is tomorrow?”

TikTok denies it poses national security concerns.

China’s economic slowdown pushes UK firms to take ‘wait-and-see’ approach to investments, but 2024 optimism returns

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3244747/chinas-economic-slowdown-pushes-uk-firms-take-wait-and-see-approach-investments-2024-optimism?utm_source=rss_feed

British companies are taking a “wait-and-see” approach to investments in China as the world’s second-largest economy eases its way out of three years of the coronavirus, the British Chamber of Commerce in China said on Tuesday.

But the “British Business in China: Sentiment Survey” for 2023-24 showed firms are scoping for eventual new forays into artificial intelligence and technology.

“A slow Chinese economic recovery and an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape has left businesses unsure of prospects going into 2024 and beyond,” the chamber said.

Of the 301 firms who responded to the survey, 60 per cent considered 2023 to be more difficult than last year, which was marked by lockdowns that hobbled labour and transport in China.

But respondents also showed a “slow return to optimism”, with 46 per cent “positive” about their 2024 prospects.

The largest proportion of British-invested companies, though, are still taking a “wait-and-see” approach by maintaining investment levels in China for the coming year, the chamber said.

Among the 13 per cent of respondents who anticipate decreasing investments in China this year and in 2024, an unusually high 72 per cent cited economic uncertainty as a cause, while another 35 per cent of the firms surveyed plan to increase investments.

China has grappled with a debt-ridden property market, uneven export expansion and youth unemployment problems this year.

British foreign direct investment stock in China was £10.7 billion (US$13.4 billion) in 2021, representing 0.6 per cent of the world total, according to the Department for Business and Trade.

‘The next China is still China’: Xi pledges to tear down investment barriers

Shell, Standard Chartered and Jaguar Land Rover are among the British investors in China, while the British chamber network in China has a combined 850 member companies.

Investors from developed countries are delaying major new investments in China partly because of a “poisoning of China-US relations”, said Victor Gao, vice-president of the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing.

China and the United States have sparred over trade, technology and geopolitics since 2018, while Washington has pressured Western-allied nations to steer away from Chinese supply chains.

But the chamber survey detected interest among British firms in conducting research and development in “sustainability”, artificial intelligence and technological “advancement” due to being “encouraged by China’s growth objectives”.

“Navigating cybersecurity and IT regulations is now the top priority among British business respondents,” the chamber said.

British companies are already responding well to a perceived increase in “proactivity” by Chinese officials to hold more dialogue over regulatory issues, it added.

The survey also found a “marked improvement” in capacity to hire local staff, mainly due to an expanding talent pool.

But close to half of companies surveyed said they were not recruiting foreign talent after hiring from offshore became difficult last year because of regulatory issues during China’s Covid-19 lockdowns.

“There’s a lot of talk around potential opportunities, but a lot of firms need to see stronger growth prospects and better domestic policy clarity to improve their confidence,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst in global trade with The Economist Intelligence Unit.

“The geopolitical environment also isn’t helping, which is encouraging multinational companies to maintain their diversification push into other markets, particularly from a sourcing perspective.”

Chinese officials should help foreign investors by identifying problems on the ground and quickly relaying the issues to the central government, Gao said.

“China has not done a good job in explaining the real situation involved,” he said. “I hope China will take action more systematically and not wait too long.”

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‘Smile on her face’: girl in China, 11, living in 1 room with grandparents, studying on street, gets own bedroom thanks to community kindness

https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3243993/smile-her-face-girl-china-11-living-one-room-grandparents-studying-street-gets-own-bedroom-thanks?utm_source=rss_feed

An 11-year-old girl in China who had been living in a tiny room with her grandparents, has finally got her own bedroom thanks to the kindness of people in her local community.

Xinyi, from Zhejiang province in eastern China, had endured the cramped conditions for years.

An online video shows a four-metre-square, dimly lit room that served as a kitchen-diner, living area, and bedroom crammed with plastic bags, furniture, and an array of necessities, such as toiletry items, squeezed into the minute space.

“The room we live in is very very small,” her grandfather, Liu Xueguo said.

He said the room was even too small for a little desk, and he had no choice but to place one outside, which meant his granddaughter would have to sit outdoors to do her homework. On rainy days, she would have to lie on the bunk bed.

“When can I have my own bedroom where I can study and sleep?” Xinyi would ask Liu.

Liu, who works as a cleaner, shared his dilemma with his local community committee who set out to make Xinyi’s wish come true.

They searched the area for a suitable space and decided that a room opposite the family’s accommodation, which was being used for elderly people to read newspapers, would be ideal.

The committee cleared the room, set up a crowdfunding campaign and enlisted the help of other residents so that Xinyi’s new room was soon furnished with a bed, chair, bookcase, and other practical items.

The whereabouts of Xinyi’s parents were not made clear, but she had lived with her grandparents in those conditions all her life.

They said they were relieved the youngster will no longer have to squeeze into the tiny, shabby room with them.

Liu was told that Xinyi can live in her new room, which measures about nine square metres at no charge until she is 18 years old.

He said his granddaughter is grateful to the people in the local community for their selfless help.

“She often tells us that she appreciates those warmhearted people and will repay their generosity,” he added.

After being given her own bedroom, Liu said that Xinyi has become more cheerful and inspired.

“She has a smile on her face now when she studies and keeps telling me that she will study hard,” he said.

“I’m happy. The room is good, and I can finish my homework faster,” Xinyi said.

The story has melted hearts on mainland social media.

“It’s so heart-wrenching, but heart-warming too,” one person said.

‘Unluckiest high-speed rail’: how Mother Nature bends human will in record-breaking infrastructure in western China

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3244638/unluckiest-high-speed-rail-how-mother-nature-bends-human-will-record-breaking-infrastructure-western?utm_source=rss_feed

It was once a symbol of China’s progress, now it is a reminder of the limits of humanity.

On the day the Lanxin Express railway was finished in 2016, the mega infrastructure earned the title of the longest high-speed rail built at one time. It bore the heavy hope that it would boost the economy and lift the quality of life in China’s forgotten west.

The Lanxin Express connects Lanzhou to Urumqi, covering 1,736km (1,078 miles) of mostly Gobi Desert terrain in the west of China where nature has dealt a tough hand in a stretch of mountains between Gansu and Xinjiang.

But the project’s completion was followed by seven years of hard luck. It ground to a halt six times, with the longest break stretching over a year and a half. It was a blow to China which is proud of its engineering prowess and quality of projects. Observers of China’s high-speed rail programme took to social media, calling it the “unluckiest high-speed railway”.

According to Chinese media and public data, most of the reasons for suspension of the high-speed railway relate to once-vaunted tunnel projects.

The rail crosses the Qilian Mountains on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The enormous folds and fault structures formed by crustal movement make the geology in the mountains extremely unstable.

Chinese engineers have long said the best way to cross the geographically unstable terrain is through tunnels. They once firmly believed that sudden geological disasters such as landslides and earthquakes would have a severe impact on surface structures but would cause relatively minor damage to underground projects – and even if the damage reached the tunnels, it would be relatively easy to repair.

However, Chinese engineers and scientists are now starting to realise that their textbooks might have been wrong and tunnels may not be the solution.

“The severe deformation and damage caused by earthquake destruction to tunnels, as well as the difficulty of engineering repairs, prove that tunnels are not an effective way to resist engineering faults,” engineers from the China Railway First Survey and Design Institute wrote in a paper published in the domestic Journal of Geomechanics on November 24.

“Therefore, in railway engineering risk selection, tunnel methods should be avoided when crossing relatively dangerous active fault zones.”

Are high-speed trains becoming Xi Jinping’s preferred way to travel in China?

According to the paper, the Chinese engineers changed their minds completely after an earthquake on January 8 last year. Engineers say they are still haunted today by the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that occurred in Menyuan County, Qinghai province in northwestern China, with the epicentre just 4.5km from a high-speed railway.

The earthquake caused a new fault tens of kilometres long to form, with the new fault zone straddled by an important high-speed railway tunnel. Engineers who rushed to the scene after the disaster were shocked to see that the tunnel had been cut off by the force of the quake, with a horizontal displacement of 3 metres (10 feet) between the two sections and a vertical drop of more than 1 metre.

While repairing distorted rail tracks and broken wall surfaces is routine for engineers, reconnecting two almost parallel misaligned tunnels and ensuring that high-speed trains pass through without any problems was a significant challenge.

China’s railway workers and engineers applied tremendous effort to solve the problem and finally restored full operation of the high-speed railway in July. Construction of the entire line took just five years.

During the tunnel repair period, the Chinese government and state-owned railway companies upgraded and improved the entire railway, increasing its operating speed by a quarter, to 250km/h (155mph). Although it falls well short of the 350km/h in other parts of China, the difficult terrain has pushed modern engineering technology to its limits.

However, engineers remain concerned for the future, writing in the paper that they recommend strengthening “real-time monitoring of post-earthquake deformation across active fault zones, real-time changes in stress in engineering sites, and surface cracks in tunnel areas after tunnel repair and operation”.

The total cost of the Lanxin Express is as high as 143.5 billion yuan (US$20 million), and each suspension may cause losses of hundreds of millions of yuan.

It is not known how this expensive lesson will affect future construction of China’s high-speed railway, but public reports indicate the builders of some lines are trying to build bridges in valleys to cross difficult and dangerous terrain.

As the engineers said in the paper, their suggestions only target some specific locations, and most existing high-speed rail tunnels are not likely to pose this risk. So far, no other lines have been suspended at the same frequency as the Lanxin Express.

Xi’s Vietnam visit set to focus on rail link, rare earths amid rising US clout

In less than 15 years, China has constructed more than 40,000km of high-speed railway, connecting nearly all major cities. There have been no passenger deaths caused by accidents in the past decade and the safety record of high-speed rail has surpassed that of aeroplanes.

China’s high-speed rail technology has been used in some countries such as Indonesia and Thailand, and many others have shown interest in introducing it. How to maintain an impeccable safety record abroad is a new challenge for Chinese engineers and scientists.

Top US government audit agency urged to ensure China influence probes are kept ‘free from bias’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3244734/top-us-government-audit-agency-urged-ensure-china-influence-probes-are-kept-free-bias?utm_source=rss_feed

Leading House Democrats are urging the US government’s chief audit agency to ensure that ongoing efforts to investigate allegations of Chinese and foreign influence in federally funded research are “free from bias”.

The call is the latest development affecting the delicate balance the US government seeks to strike between protecting national security and preserving a culture of open research collaboration.

“Contributions from US scientists of diverse backgrounds and foreign researchers have made the United States a science and technology powerhouse,” wrote Judy Chu, chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, in a letter sent on Monday to Gene Dodaro, head of the US Government Accountability Office.

Chu’s letter, also signed by the top Democrats on the House oversight and science committees, asserted that US government responses to concerns about influence attempts by foreign entities, particularly those in China, had led to disproportionately high numbers of ethnically Asian researchers being targeted and losing their jobs.

In 2018, the National Institutes of Health – an American government agency responsible for biomedical and public health research – began investigating 246 US-based scientists who allegedly failed to disclose research conducted in another country or affiliations with foreign institutions.

Chu’s letter cited reporting that revealed 103 of them had lost their jobs and that 81 per cent of the scientists under investigation identified as Asian.

“These data highlight the need to examine whether federal agencies ensure that such investigations are free from bias and do not result in discriminatory treatment,” it stated.

In contrast to the highly publicised China Initiative run by the US Department of Justice – a now-defunct programme that sought to counter Beijing’s economic espionage – the NIH’s version was mostly conducted behind closed doors.

Consensus no more? Democrats start to split from Republicans on China policy

Last week, 45 organisations, mostly Asian-American groups, wrote to congressional leaders to oppose any effort to reinstate the China Initiative.

The group cited congressional documents regarding a House appropriations bill that called ending the initiative “unwise”.

Started in 2018 and scrapped last year, the China Initiative has been widely criticised for disproportionately targeting people of Chinese heritage and pursuing cases with little or no obvious ties to national security or trade secret theft.

Many cases pursued under the programme were ultimately dropped, including that of Gang Chen, a China-born MIT scientist who was accused of misrepresenting his relationship to China on funding documents.

Finding a complete accounting of dropped cases is difficult, as the Justice Department has not clearly explained what led it to classify a case under the initiative.

Final Pentagon bill features Taiwan, Aukus and counters to China’s influence

In recent years, Sino-American cooperation on science and technology has increasingly come under US government scrutiny.

Earlier this year, efforts to renew a bilateral science cooperation agreement stalled over concerns among Americans lawmakers regarding intellectual property theft and unintended benefits flowing to China’s military.

In August, days before the science deal was due to expire, the US government announced it would temporarily extend the agreement for six months.

Speaking on Monday at the Hudson Institute, Republican congressman Mike Waltz of Florida, a member of the permanent select committee on intelligence, raised concern that the Chinese government was “weaponising” race to counter concerns about academic espionage.

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Why China and the EU could emerge as stronger partners in 2024

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244552/why-china-and-eu-could-emerge-stronger-partners-2024?utm_source=rss_feed

Politics, much like history, is witness to an enduring struggle between continuity and change. The EU-China summit was a noteworthy representation of this constant clash. It served as a pivotal juncture where both parties decisively choose change.

Beyond conventional negotiations, and despite pessimistic evaluations, the summit signified a mutual shift in perspective. There has been a strategic and deliberate move towards fostering deeper mutual understanding.

Fundamentally, the meeting represented an effort to prevent a descent into conflict. Strategic dialogues play a central role in alleviating tensions, reflecting a purposeful endeavour to both manage and mitigate potential difficulties. In a move towards pure realpolitik, the focus has transitioned from customary symbolic disputes over ideological subtleties and strategic posturing to core issues such as economic imbalances, geopolitical implications and trade relations.

The uncertainty over the ultimate success of these endeavours prompts the question of whether substantial change will truly materialise over time. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope in what has been on display. It seems that, on this occasion, Chinese and European leaders allocated political capital to critical issues in a strategic manner.

The European Union’s achievement can be examined from a threefold perspective. First, the EU has advanced as an independent geopolitical actor, at last projecting a unified voice in engagements with China.

EU warned to get its story straight on China, amid ‘divide and conquer’ fears

In the pursuit of influence, the EU leadership grapples with the understanding that, as an international organisation, it differs fundamentally from a single country. Despite this complexity, the EU has showcased its capability to negotiate and interact.

Europe stands in a distinct battlefield compared to the United States and China, which are both pursuing global influence through technological supremacy. Categorising the US, China and the EU as equal geopolitical competitors is more closely tied to the EU’s well-established reputation as an economic powerhouse rather than a predominant global force. Occasionally, global expectations for the EU exceed its actual capacity.

Hence, the EU must solidify its position as a robust independent player, which requires two critical strategies. To begin with, it must advocate federal development – especially in the realms of foreign policy and common defence – recognising it as an undeniable necessity rather than a matter of preference or debate, as has been the case so far.

Second, the EU’s success in this new-found role is related to Chinese involvement in the war in Ukraine. The EU faces the crucial task of persuading China to adopt a stance on the conflict aligning with European interests. With the second anniversary of the war on the horizon, achieving this objective requires a diplomatic approach to ensure China’s engagement with Ukraine and Russia contributes to regional stability.

Third, the European economy confronts two overarching concerns: competitiveness and the urgent need to accelerate productivity. The structural trade imbalance with China serves as an impediment to tackling these issues, underscoring the necessity for adjustments.

China and Europe must better understand one another. Both regions grapple with complex vulnerabilities, in contrast to the adept prowess demonstrated by the US, particularly in the economic sphere.

China and the EU were each other’s second-largest trading partner in 2022. The complex economic interdependence accentuates the necessity for ongoing discussions. To balance these ties, careful management, safeguarding economic interests, addressing market access concerns, employing mutual de-risking policies and ensuring fair competition must all be discussed.

In addressing its shortcomings, the EU must develop its realpolitik maturity, steering clear of conflicts arising from uncertain investigations, such as those on Chinese electric vehicles. Acting on potential harm, rather than established evidence, jeopardises the EU’s image and legal standing. Its approach to Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) won’t resolve the issue.

Instead, Europe’s leaders should focus on preventing the bloc’s future deindustrialisation. Prioritising a robust EV industrial strategy is paramount for a smoother green transition, one that offers European customers affordable options.

China has demonstrated a deeper understanding of EU concerns, confronting long-standing issues and adopting a more mature narrative. Rather than patronising the EU, it has acknowledged the proverbial elephants in the room. A stronger European economy is strategically imperative for cooperation, sustaining trade and preventing the exacerbation of China’s challenges, which include economic deceleration, a real estate crisis, an ageing society and youth unemployment.

Before the summit, China addressed trade pressure on Lithuania and facilitated visa-free entry procedures for nationals of five EU countries. These moves may have been the result of China’s growing concern about its relationship with the EU, possibly prompting Beijing to pave the way for the meeting and to try to balance visitor numbers.

The rectification of the Lithuania issue was a welcome development. Beijing’s economic pressure on Lithuania after the Baltic country permitted the opening of a Taiwanese office in Vilnius in 2021 was a misstep as actions against one EU member affect the 26 other states. Considering Europe’s observance of the “one China” policy, Beijing should not replicate such measures without rigorous negotiations beforehand.

Europe is no one’s vassal, ‘relaxed’ Xi tells EU leaders in Beijing

The intricate landscape of 2024 does not allow room for mistakes, considering that economic factors and elections in Taiwan and the US could have significant repercussions, especially for China. Consequently, both the EU and China could emerge as stronger allies and even priority partners, provided there is reciprocity. Prioritising legitimate concerns and fostering a cooperative relationship, rather than a confrontational one, is in the best interest of both parties.

In a nutshell, the EU-China summit marks a crucial interval, reflecting a proactive effort to prevent conflict, shift towards realpolitik and mutually acknowledge interdependence. The meeting signified a willingness to explore new avenues.

Fighting climate change and addressing AI governance transcend domestic narratives. Both the EU and China must collaborate to create a harmonious global partnership.

To stabilise China’s economy, Beijing corrects course on policy, from carbon cuts to common prosperity

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3244703/stabilise-chinas-economy-beijing-corrects-course-policy-carbon-cuts-common-prosperity?utm_source=rss_feed

Beijing has signalled that it is undertaking a course correction in policy - favouring a more cautious tack while trying to avoid further disruptions to businesses and the economy at large.

“Next year we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing the new before abolishing the old,” said a statement following Friday’s Politburo meeting that sets the tone for its economic priorities in 2024.

It marked the first time that such comments appeared in a meeting readout from the centre of power within the Communist Party, but similar sentiment has been expressed in recent years by high-ranking officials, including in warnings about “jumping the gun” on issues such as the nation’s decarbonisation efforts.

In 2021, China’s attempts to curb carbon emissions lead policymakers to correct course in the face of crippling coal shortages and rolling power outages across the country.

Some analysts say the Politburo’s position signals that Beijing is favouring a step-by-step approach to developing the economy and tackling structural problems, with an eye on avoiding unintended side effects like those resulting from attempts to rein in property speculation and address high levels of local-government debt.

Such rushed campaigns, they note, have a history of roiling markets. And they say the Politburo’s embrace of more stable policies in 2024 could, in turn, help stabilise the expectations of people and businesses.

“China learned lessons from taking the green drive too far in previous years - seeing the supply of coal and other conventional energy sources being disrupted or even suppressed before we had secured new energy sources,” Xu Gao, chief economist with Bank of China International, said in a column on Monday.

China shovels coal on power-security fears, risks climate goals: Greenpeace

“Now, with the top leadership’s reaffirmation of ‘establishing the new before abolishing the old’, the hope is that ... policymakers will be more prudent in ridding or reforming existing growth models or sources or changing anything, so as to protect the fundamentals of the [nation’s economic] recovery and stabilise expectations,” Xu said.

Others also say the phrase itself will guide Beijing’s policy drive and problem-solving efforts in more specific domains – including decarbonisation, common prosperity and the debt crisis facing local governments and developers – as such complex issues cannot be resolved overnight.

Song Xuetao, chief macroeconomic analyst with Beijing-based TF Securities, said in a note last week that Beijing would aim to make policymaking and reforms more measured and stepwise, with sound planning.

“For instance, the establish-the-new-before-abolishing-the-old approach to Beijing’s common-prosperity drive would mean growing the economy and wealth pie bigger before deciding how to redistribute the wealth,” Song said. “In decarbonisation, this approach means China shall trial reliable new energy sources before phasing out coal and others.”

He expected that Beijing will not rush reforms nor try to compress the complex process of resolving property sector woes and local government debt in a short time frame.

“The policy touch going forward will be deft and mild,” Song said.

Zhu Jiangnan, coordinator of the contemporary China studies programme at the University of Hong Kong, said Beijing would be mindful in selecting policies to prop up the economy and in launching reforms or crackdowns in the future.

“The backdrop is that a fickle policy and regulatory environment usually tops the list of big gripes among private and foreign firms,” she said.

China is close to peak emissions, but it doesn’t want to talk about it

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/11/china-climate-emissions-peak-cop28/2023-10-26T19:41:42.033Z

DUBAI — Just a few years ago, climate watchers had little confidence that China — the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases — would hit peak emissions long “before 2030,” as Beijing had pledged to do.

But China’s economic slowdown and expansion of renewable energies have dramatically altered the calculus. Now a growing number of experts predict China will hit a tipping point much sooner than 2029 and start reducing the carbon pollution it spews into the air.

“It is almost certain that China will peak emissions several years before 2030, perhaps as early as 2026,” said Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, a think tank focused on climate change mitigation.

Here at the U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP28, in Dubai, many delegates are quietly debating the implications: Could China really start reducing its greenhouse gas emissions before 2029? And how can other governments nudge the world’s largest emitter toward an earlier peak?

For now, the answer remains elusive. China appears hesitant to update national targets of reaching peak carbon dioxide emission “before 2030” or give in to external pressure to lock in the earliest possible date by halting construction of coal-fired power plants.

China’s shrinking carbon footprint is partly a result of investments in wind and solar power that are replacing coal as an energy source. China is on track to reach a goal of installing 1,200 gigawatts of renewables five years ahead of schedule. At the same time, an economic slowdown, caused primarily by the slumping property market, is expected to reduce activity in the emissions-heavy construction industry.

So why isn’t China advertising the possibility of an early peak? “The Chinese, for whatever reason, are not realizing how important public statements are to winning the overall global debate on climate change,” Turner said. “It would be a very major step forward for the world if they did.”

China has long been on both sides of global efforts to transition the global economy away from fossil fuels to climate-friendly industries.

It makes and deploys technologies crucial to cutting emissions — power from wind, solar, nuclear and hydro. Battery and hybrid cars now account for nearly 40 percent of total sales in the country. The uptake was so fast that China closed more gas stations than it opened last year.

But policymakers in Beijing maintain they cannot meet rising power demand without more coal, which is the leading source of carbon dioxide emissions and a major producer of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas. And China still makes over half of the world’s steel, aluminum and cement — all of which contribute significantly to emissions.

“The story over the last decade has been that China simply needed a lot of energy, so even as they do record-breaking clean energy deployment, the growth in energy demand was faster still,” said Alex Wang, an expert on Chinese climate policy at the University of California at Los Angeles. The way to truly move away from coal, he added, is for “renewables to become so powerful that they start to take over.”

Several experts on China’s energy sector now say that fundamental shift is within reach — as long as Chinese policymakers continue to push its economy away from polluting industries.

If the world’s largest emitter resists using carbon-intensive stimulus to boost growth, and instead continues to invest in clean technologies, it could send emissions into what one analyst described as “structural decline.”

But, campaigners warn, the ongoing construction of coal-fired power plants could upend the chances of an imminent reduction if it slows the adoption of renewables. China defends the expansion as necessary for energy security and recently announced a policy that Chinese researchers say will allow the plants to operate only when necessary to keep the grid intact and prevent blackouts.

The investment in coal has continued in part because of recent power shortages, including during droughts that tanked hydropower output in 2022. But to keep relying on coal would mean “paying a very high cost for energy security,” said Ma Jun, director the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a Chinese nongovernmental organization.

A better solution, Ma said, would be to better integrate the nation’s power grids and improve coordination of renewables use, rather than pushing each region to be self-sufficient. Ensuring power supply should be a “national game of chess, but instead it’s everyone for themselves,” he said.

There is also the question of how aggressively China will move to bring down emissions after the peak. While many analyses project China to hit maximum emissions by the mid-2020s, it is unclear what could follow. It is possible that carbon dioxide output will “stay at a plateau, fluctuate for an extended period, or decline as people wish,” said Hu Min, head of the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, a Chinese think tank.

Few of those questions look likely to be answered during this year’s climate negotiations. This is the first time in three years that China has sent a major delegation to climate talks. In 2021 and 2022, only a skeleton team attended, because of the country’s strict “zero covid” policies.

Even so, China has mostly kept a low profile. Instead of attending or sending his No. 2, Premier Li Qiang, President Xi Jinping dispatched Ding Xuexiang, a vice premier who oversees the environmental portfolio.

Neither Ding nor Xie Zhenhua — a special envoy and the international face of China’s climate negotiations for the past three decades — has made major announcements during talks. Instead, they have focused on what China has already achieved.

Reflecting a long-standing wait-and-see approach to climate diplomacy, Beijing did not sign up for voluntary pledges on renewables and nuclear, even though it is a global leader in both sectors.

“China is very rigorous, and its policymakers, including negotiations at COP, are cautious about signing onto something before they know it’s achievable,” said Shuang Liu, China finance lead at the World Resources Institute.

One of the few announcements Xie made last week was confirmation that China would release updated five- and ten-year climate targets in 2025. But that pledge also left open the possibility that no changes would be made for at least another year and that the 2030 target remains broadly similar.

“The way it was framed, it could be that for 2030 they just announce new initiatives rather than new goals,” said Kate Logan, associate director of climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank. “There is nothing in there that guaranteed a raising of ambition.”

China probably will be unwilling to bind itself to additional public targets beyond what it agreed to in a joint statement with the United States in November, when it pledged to triple renewables over the decade to 2030 with a mind to “meaningful absolute power sector emission reduction” this decade.

In a news conference this week, U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry called that statement a “move from where we have been” in negotiations with China.

Asked about Kerry’s remarks, a State Department spokesperson said that the agreement reached in Sunnylands, Calif., in November was the “first time that the [People’s Republic of China] has stated plans to achieve absolute emissions reductions in the power sector this decade, consistent with the possibility that China can reach its overall peak CO2 goal earlier.”

But that breakthrough appears to now be constraining Chinese ambition. In meetings with delegations from the United States in Dubai, Xie has repeatedly stressed that he wishes to implement, rather than build on, the Sunnylands agreement.

“China really wants to use the [U.S.-China] deal to guide negotiations as they reach the endgame,” while former officials from United States have argued that those commitments should be the “floor” for Chinese commitments, said one person involved in closed-door talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Asked at a Saturday news conference about the possibility of an updated target, Xie said that China “did not need to adjust [national targets] to reflect the progress we’ve made, because the word we used is ‘before’ 2030.”

“As for which year exactly,” he added, “we are doing some calculations.”