• China vows to crack down on fentanyl chemicals. The impact is unclear.
• David Cameron’s links to China could weaken his role on world stage as UK foreign secretary
• Taiwan reports increased Chinese military drills nearby

China vows to crack down on fentanyl chemicals. The impact is unclear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/11/19/china-fentanyl-crackdown/2023-11-16T19:27:28.911Z

When Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in San Francisco last week, his top aides delivered welcome news for U.S. officials: Beijing had already taken action against 25 Chinese companies involved in supplying chemicals used in the illicit fentanyl trade, said a White House official familiar with the matter.

The move was viewed as evidence that Beijing is serious about stepping up counternarcotics cooperation after more than a year of diplomatic efforts that met resistance from Chinese officials — who had shifted blame to the United States for its insatiable demand for drugs. After President Biden and Xi met, the White House on Wednesday announced that China had agreed to resume cooperation against counternarcotics with the United States, while cracking down on chemicals flowing to clandestine fentanyl labs overseas.

While the agreement notches a political win for Biden as he runs for reelection and is eager to show progress curbing the nation’s enduring drug crisis, policy experts remain skeptical that China’s pledge will make a lasting dent in the global supply chain for illicit drugs. They question whether Beijing will follow through, or that it is even capable of rooting out shady players within China’s vast chemical industry who use encrypted communications and cryptocurrency while peddling precursor chemicals to Mexican drug traffickers.

Some experts worry that other cheap, synthetic drugs may begin replacing fentanyl. Others say sales of the precursor chemicals — which can have many legitimate uses but are instrumental to manufacturing fentanyl — will simply migrate to other countries, such as India.

“I have a hard time believing this is a permanent game-changing scenario because somebody else can step in and provide the chemicals,” said Jonathan P. Caulkins, a Carnegie Mellon University professor who researches the criminal drug trade. “The Chinese are not the only ones who know how to manufacture these chemicals.”

The Biden administration has made combating the nation’s drug crisis a priority, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into helping communities and states obtain overdose reversal drugs, beef up addiction treatment and start education campaigns. Still, the toll exacted by illicit drugs keeps climbing, with more than 110,000 deaths in the United States in 2022, two-thirds from synthetic opioids such as illicitly made fentanyl, according to federal estimates.

Cause of death: Washington faltered as fentanyl gripped America

Fentanyl made in secret labs in Mexico long ago replaced prescription painkillers and heroin as the catalyst for the nation’s drug deaths. And while the fight against the drug problem is a bipartisan issue, the GOP and its presidential candidates have pilloried Biden’s record, linking the proliferation of fentanyl to a porous southern border — even though the drug mostly enters the United States through vehicles traversing legal ports of entry, not carried by migrants seeking asylum.

Amid tensions over Taiwan, trade and technology, China’s role in the fentanyl trade has become a political rallying point for both Democrats and Republicans. Before Biden met with Xi, senators from both parties exhorted the U.S. president in a letter to urge Beijing to cut off the precursor supply and spur “a drastic drop in illicit fentanyl being trafficked across our southern border and killing vulnerable Americans.”

Republicans have criticized last week’s agreement, predicting China’s pledge will prove hollow.

“No amount of weak appeasement from Joe Biden is going to change Communist China’s desire to weaken the United States and kill Americans,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said in a statement. “We’ve seen this failed playbook before when then-Vice President Joe Biden tried to get Communist China to crack down on fentanyl during the Obama administration. They didn’t keep their word then and won’t now.”

During the Trump administration, China moved to constrain domestic production of fentanyl but with grim, unintended consequences.

The country’s chemical and pharmaceutical companies, using mail and courier services, used to be the primary suppliers of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs to North America. In 2019, Chinese authorities tipped off by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration convicted a ring of fentanyl suppliers. U.S. and Chinese officials held a joint news conference after nine men were sentenced. That year, China agreed to sweeping internal restrictions on fentanyl-related substances.

But Chinese companies then began supplying precursor chemicals to Mexican drug trafficking groups, which now produce finished fentanyl in labs in Mexico and traffic the small, easy-to-hide packages across the border into the United States. A study last year estimated that the amount of fentanyl consumed in the United States in 2021 was only in the single-digit metric tons, compared with an estimated 145 tons of cocaine, underscoring the potency of the drug and the ease of smuggling it into the United States.

This year, U.S. law enforcement has increasingly targeted Chinese companies and brokers suspected of supplying precursors sent by ship and through parcels to Mexico. The Treasury Department has issued sanctions against companies in China. Federal prosecutors have linked Chinese companies to the ruthless Sinaloa cartel, whose leaders have been arrested and extradited to the United States.

In June, the Justice Department unveiled indictments against companies that prosecutors say advertised the chemicals online, shipping them overseas using fake labeling and deceptive delivery procedures. They also announced the arrests of two Chinese nationals in Fiji — a rare instance in which Chinese suspects found themselves in U.S. custody. At the time, a Chinese Embassy spokesman called the indictments “entrapment” and shifted blame to the United States’ “own drug problems.” In October, the Justice Department unsealed additional indictments against different Chinese companies and their executives.

Wednesday’s agreement between the nation’s presidents represented an about-face from China, which stopped cooperating with U.S. law enforcement more than a year ago amid deteriorating relations and a visit to Taiwan by Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), then the House speaker.

The White House says Beijing has issued a notice to industry alerting it to laws and regulations on selling precursors and pill presses. China also began taking enforcement action and as a result, certain companies “have ceased operations and have had some international payment accounts blocked,” according to a White House summary. For the first time in three years, China began sharing intelligence with an international board that monitors drug threats under United Nations treaties, the White House said.

In return, the Biden administration lifted sanctions on China’s Institute of Forensic Science, a network of crime labs, which had been targeted in 2020 because of human rights violations and abuses.

Analysts say that for Xi, reining in the chemical trade is not a priority, but that the agreement helps stabilize China’s relationship with the United States and bolsters the image of a country confronting economic and political challenges. They caution that China could stop cooperating if it feels it is not benefiting on a bigger political stage — and the United States would have no easy way to gauge its efforts.

“I would be very surprised if we had robust, lasting cooperation from China,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, who studies the international opioid trade for the Brookings Institution, a D.C. think tank. “The cooperation will wither over time.”

China’s mammoth chemical and drug industries are fragmented, with many small companies operating on thin margins, said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a research fellow studying China for the Council on Foreign Relations. She said some chemicals are diverted from legitimate companies, making it harder for regulators to detect. And those products are often sold through small-time brokers who employ English-speaking sales representatives to engage with customers through WhatsApp and other messaging services, according to an investigation by Elliptic, a crypto compliance analytics firm.

“I really think Chinese law enforcement investigators may not necessarily have the adequate capacity” to regulate the sales of precursors, Liu said.

The White House’s top official on drug control policy, Rahul Gupta, said in an interview that China’s pledge is only a first step, and that Beijing needs to enforce regulations to ensure that shipments from China are going to legitimate customers. He pointed to the 2019 crackdown as proof that “when China wants to act, it can act and it can be decisive in its action to yield results.”

Gupta, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, acknowledged that the moves by China may change where suppliers emerge. While China is the chief supplier of precursor chemicals, other countries such as India “are not too far behind,” he said.

“We also know that the criminal elements could quickly shift to countries like India,” Gupta said. “And that is a reason why we’ve been working with India since 2020. And it’s time for us to double- and triple-down our efforts with India to clamp down.”

Gupta on Friday traveled to India for meetings on U.S.-India drug policy and efforts to combat illicit synthetic drugs trafficking.

In the United States, where demand for illegal drugs rages on, some experts worry that an ebb in precursor chemicals from China may lead to a rise in other synthetic narcotics whose blueprints can be found online.

The illicit drug supply has become increasingly tainted with substances such as xylazine, an animal tranquilizer that can be bought from Chinese websites and is mixed with fentanyl for an extended high. Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned companies it said were selling xylazine online — along with precursors used to make fentanyl, methamphetamine and MDMA, also known as ecstasy or Molly.

Jon E. Zibbell, a senior scientist at the nonprofit research institute RTI International, said that clamping down on precursors created unintended problems in the past. He pointed to crackdowns on pseudoephedrine in the mid-2000s to curb domestic production of methamphetamine. Today, Mexican cartels control a growing methamphetamine market using a different synthesis process, without pseudoephedrine, to make a more potent product.

“The illicit manufacturing of synthetic drugs,” Zibbell said, “is constantly shifting in response to national drug control strategies that have most often led to more toxic and dangerous versions of street drugs making their way onto America’s streets.”

David Cameron’s links to China could weaken his role on world stage as UK foreign secretary

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/19/david-camerons-links-to-china-could-weaken-his-role-on-world-stage-as-uk-foreign-secretary

When Chinese president Xi Jinping cut the ribbon on Sri Lanka’s Port City Colombo construction site in September 2014, it was promoted as a future major hub in China’s global infrastructure project, the belt and road initiative.

With a financial centre, beach-front villas and an international yacht marina, the city is aiming to be a rival to Dubai and Singapore. China has already invested $1.4bn in the development, which is due to be completed by 2041.

Some Sri Lankans are worried that the ambitious project may deliver few benefits, have a negative impact on the environment and leave the island nation lumbered with a sprawling white elephant. In the UK, MPs have raised concerns it could one day serve as a Chinese military outpost on the Indo-Pacific.

A concerted PR campaign has done its best to win over investors and critics. The Facebook page of Port City Colombo Limited, whose ultimate owner is the state-owned China Communications Construction Company, carries several photographs featuring one of its most enthusiastic advocates: Britain’s new foreign secretary, Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton.

Cameron is quoted on the website as saying the new metropolis will be a “sea of opportunity” that will help in “building bridges and bringing greater prosperity for all”.

The former premier’s promotion of the Beijing-funded scheme has prompted calls for a full disclosure of his interests to ensure there is no conflict with his new role as Britain’s premier diplomat.

Anneliese Dodds, chair of the Labour party, has called for Cameron to disclose all of his financial interests. “This must include interests he has held and divested himself from prior to re-entering the cabinet,” she wrote to Rishi Sunak on Friday.

Luke de Pulford, executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which aims to promote an international response to the challenges posed by China, said: “I think there are very serious questions about how he was vetted for his new position.” He said the new foreign secretary had been pushing for a development “that could effectively become a Chinese military outpost in the Indo-Pacific”.

Cameron toured the Port City Colombo development during a private visit to Sri Lanka in January, meeting Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Sri Lanka president, and Yang Lu, managing director of Port City Colombo. The city is being developed on 665 acres of reclaimed land.

Politico, the politics and policy news organisation, reported last month that Cameron spoke at two events organised to promote Colombo Port City in the United Arab Emirates in September.

The Sri Lanka media has reported that he was to be paid $210,000 to promote the Chinese-backed development at the events. Cameron’s office will not comment on the arrangements, but a source said the former prime minister’s office did not recognise the figures cited in the Sri Lanka press.

Dilum Amunugama, Sri Lanka’s minister of investment promotion, has told the Observer it was the Chinese-backed Port City Colombo project and the government’s Colombo Port City Economic Commission that engaged Lord Cameron.

He said: “It was those two parties. They engaged with him and it was handled by the Port City project itself.” He said the government was keen that Cameron emphasise the role of Sri Lanka in the project so that it wasn’t merely seen as a Chinese venture.

Cameron’s office has not commented on fees, but said the speaking events were arranged via the Washington Speakers Bureau, and the contracting party was KPMG Sri Lanka. KPMG is listed as a consultant for the Port City Colombo project.

There is perhaps a cautionary tale in the Chinese-backed venture Cameron has promoted so keenly. A previous joint China–Sri Lanka venture, the Hambantota Port Development Project, resulted in a Chinese company securing a 99-year lease on the port because of Sri Lanka’s crippling levels of debt. A research report in July claimed that China may establish a naval base at Hambantota in the next two to five years.

During his six years as prime minister, Cameron was an enthusiast for UK-China relations. In September 2012, he welcomed Ren Zhengfei, the boss of Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, into Downing Street for a fireside chat, lauding the firm’s decision to invest a further £1.3bn in the UK. Three years later, President Xi’s state visit to the UK sealed the “golden era in relations between Britain and China”.

But since Cameron resigned in 2016 following his EU referendum defeat, successive Tory prime ministers have taken a more sceptical approach to China.

In July 2020, Boris Johnson’s government announced that it would ban Huawei from the country’s high-speed 5G mobile communications network. Operators have been ordered to remove the technology by 2027, with BT saying the decision had cost it £500m. MPs have also raised concern about China’s influence in the UK’s nuclear power sector.

John Strand, chief executive of Strand Consult, a telecommunications research firm, said Cameron’s push for Chinese investment came at a time when there was broader support for more cordial relations.

“Views regarding China have changed a lot in the UK,” he said. “I understand why a lot of people fear that he will have a soft approach in relation to China. [There will be some] strong reactions if he advocates a soft policy.”

Cameron quit as an MP in September 2016, three months after he left Downing Street, and hoped to cash in on UK-China relations. He flew to Beijing in September 2017 to discuss a plan for a new UK-China investment fund with China’s vice premier, Ma Kai.

The following month, Cameron met Philip Hammond, the then chancellor, to seek government support for the fund. By December 2017, the UK government was backing the project after a meeting between Hammond and Ma Kai in Beijing.

“Both sides welcomed the proposal for a bilateral UK-China investment fund with an initial round of $1bn,” said an HM Treasury note. “The fund will be led by a number of institutions in the UK and China, with the involvement of the Rt Hon David Cameron.”

Despite the support of both countries, it appears the fund failed to secure the required backing. A report by the parliamentary intelligence and security committee in July 2023 said Cameron’s role as vice-president of the UK-China investment fund may have been “engineered by the Chinese state to lend credibility to Chinese investment, as well as to the broader China brand”.

Despite the failure to launch the new fund, Cameron successfully forged other links with the Chinese business community. He appeared at UBS’s flagship Greater China Conference in January 2017.

“China is the rising emerging power,” Cameron said at the event. “The best thing to do is invest in each other’s countries.” At another event, in Shanghai in 2018, business leaders were offered the opportunity of dinner with Cameron and a photograph for £12,000.

Since he has left politics, there has been no requirement on Cameron to disclose his business interests. He will now have to register all relevant interests that could influence his parliamentary actions with the House of Lords. He will face particular scrutiny over any financial links to China. But, crucially, he will not have to reveal any payments he received before becoming foreign secretary.

He is also likely to be challenged over the scandal involving financial services company Greensill Capital, which collapsed in March 2021. Cameron’s well-remunerated involvement included lobbying the chancellor and a trip to the Saudi desert with the firm’s boss, Lex Greensill, and Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. Criminal investigations into the affair are ongoing. Cameron is not subject to these investigations.

A spokesperson for Cameron said: “David Cameron spoke at two events in the UAE, organised via Washington Speakers Bureau, in support of Port City Colombo, Sri Lanka. The contracting party for the events was KPMG Sri Lanka and Mr Cameron’s engagement followed a meeting he had with Sri Lanka’s president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, earlier in the year.

“Mr Cameron has not engaged in any way with China or any Chinese company about these speaking events. The Port City project is fully supported by the Sri Lankan government.”

Taiwan reports increased Chinese military drills nearby

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/19/taiwan-reports-increased-chinese-military-drills-nearby

Taiwan has reported renewed Chinese military activity including nine aircraft crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait and warships carrying out “combat readiness patrols”.

Democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island, as Beijing seeks to pressure Taipei over its sovereignty claims.

With the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, in San Francisco last week for the Apec summit, where he met the US president, Joe Biden, such military activity around Taiwan had decreased.

But Taiwan’s defence ministry reported that starting on Sunday morning it had detected nine Chinese aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which had previously served as an unofficial barrier between the two and which Chinese planes regularly fly over.

The aircraft involved included Su-30 and J-10 fighters, as well as early warning and electronic warfare aircraft, the ministry said.

The aircraft were accompanying Chinese warships carrying out “joint combat readiness patrols”, it added.

Taiwan sent its own forces to monitor, the ministry said.

China’s defence ministry did not answer calls seeking comment. China says its activities near Taiwan aim to address “collusion” between Taiwan separatists and the US and protect China’s territorial integrity.

Taiwan’s government, which has repeatedly offered talks with China, rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s people can decide their future.

Taiwan was a major focus of the Biden-Xi talks in San Francisco.

Xi told Biden during their four-hour meeting on Wednesday that Taiwan was the biggest, most dangerous issue in US-China ties, according to a senior US official.

The account of the summit from China’s foreign ministry was mixed, portraying Xi as having taken a tough line, over Taiwan in particular.

Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections on 13 January, with the island’s fraught relations with China an important topic on the campaign trail.

China has staged large-scale war games around Taiwan twice during the past year and a half, though China’s air force has not flown over the island or into its territorial airspace.