• Chinese ship is focus of investigation into damaged pipeline, Finland says
• China ship is focus of pipeline damage probe, Finland says
• US sanctions three China-based companies over supplying missile parts to Pakistan
• US puts sanctions on three Chinese companies for missile parts supplies to Pakistan
• China says US accusation of “risky“ aerial intercepts politically motivated
• Chinese, Russian vessels in vicinity of Baltic Sea links damage -vessel tracking data
• Finland contacts China, Russia regarding Baltic Sea pipeline investigation
• Analysis: China and Russia find common cause in Israel-Hamas crisis
• China says US Pentagon report on nuclear warheads distorts facts
• Xi Jinping wants to be loved by the global south | China
• China expanding nuclear arsenal much faster than predicted, US report says
• China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict
• Driver who crashed into Chinese consulate carried knife, crossbow
• China is set to dominate the deep sea and its wealth of rare metals
• China’s nuclear arsenal on track to double by 2030, Pentagon reports

Chinese ship is focus of investigation into damaged pipeline, Finland says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/20/chinese-ship-is-focus-of-investigation-into-damaged-pipeline-finland-says

Finnish police have said a Chinese ship whose movement coincided with the “time and place” of the suspected sabotage of a pipeline between Finland and Estonia that was damaged this month is now the focus of their investigation.

After a leak led to the shutdown of the Balticconnector pipeline on 8 October, Finnish authorities have been investigating the damage which they say was caused by “external” activity.

On Friday they said their focus was on the Newnew Polar Bear, a cargo ship that reportedly came under Chinese ownership this year. Between 2017 and 2022 it was known as the Baltic Fulmar, Finnish broadcaster YLE reported.

“The movements of the vessel Newnew Polar Bear flying the flag of Hong Kong coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage,” Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation said in a statement.

Det Supt Risto Lohi said: “We will cooperate with Chinese authorities in order to establish the role of the said vessel.”

Police also confirmed the damage was caused by “an external mechanical force” and that they had found “a heavy object” near the damaged pipeline.

“A recently formed huge clump of soil containing probably an extremely heavy object has been found in the seabed,” Lohi said.

The police will attempt to lift the object from the seabed, where it lies deep in the clay, to investigate whether it is connected to the damaged pipeline.

The National Bureau of Investigation said this week it was investigating Newnew Polarbear and a Russian ship, Sevmorput, both of which they said were in the area at the time of the incident.

After completing its crime scene investigation into the gas pipeline damage on Thursday, samples are now being analysed in in the bureau’s forensic library.

It will take at least five months to repair the pipeline, its operator said last week, leaving Finland totally dependent upon liquefied natural gas imports for the winter.

Natural gas accounts for around 5% of Finland’s energy consumption, mainly used in industry and combined heat and power production.

Last year, underwater explosions resulted in the rupture of three pipelines in the Baltic Sea responsible for the transportation of natural gas from Russia to Western Europe.

China ship is focus of pipeline damage probe, Finland says

https://reuters.com/article/finland-estonia-gas-china/china-ship-is-focus-of-pipeline-damage-probe-finland-says-idUSKBN31K16A

The investigation into the damage to the Balticonnector gas pipeline is now focused on the role of the Chinese NewNew Polar Bear container vessel, Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said on Friday.

Early on Oct. 8, a gas pipeline and a telecoms cable connecting Finland and Estonia were broken, in what Finnish investigators say may have been sabotage, though they have yet to conclude whether it was an accident or a deliberate act.

"The police have established in the criminal investigation that the movements of the vessel NewNew Polar Bear flying the flag of Hong Kong coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage," NBI said in a statement.

"For this reason, the investigation is now focused on the role of the said vessel," the investigators added.

The NBI said "a heavy object" was found on the seabed near the pipeline damage and were investigating whether this was linked to the incident.

"The investigation has confirmed that the damage has been caused by an external mechanical force, and based on current knowledge there is no reason to believe the damage has been caused by an explosion," Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi said in the statement.

A recently formed "huge clump of soil" deep in the clay seabed was believed to contain an extremely heavy object, and was the subject of investigation, the NBI said.

"Attempts will be made to lift the object from the sea for technical examination," Lohi said.

NewNew Shipping, the owner and operator of the NewNew Polar Bear, declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.

Separately, Finland's foreign ministry said on Friday it had contacted China and Russia via diplomatic channels regarding the investigation of damage to a pipeline and a telecoms cable.

The Finnish foreign ministry, in a statement to Reuters said it had contacted China to seek help to get in touch with the NewNew Polar Bear.

Regarding Russia, Finland contacted the Russian foreign ministry "stating the seriousness of the matter" and that an investigation had been launched.

A second telecoms cable, linking Sweden and Estonia, suffered a partial outage at around the same time, which may also have been caused by outside influence, Swedish and Estonian authorities have said.

The incidents have stoked concerns about the security of energy supplies in the wider Nordic region and prompted the NATO military alliance to ramp up patrols in the Baltic Sea.

Investigators on Tuesday named the NewNew Polar Bear, which travels between China and Europe via the Arctic, and the Sevmorput, a Russian nuclear-powered cargo vessel transiting between Murmansk and St. Petersburg.

Russia's Rosatom said the Sevmorput had no link to any of the pipeline damage.

"We categorically reject as groundless any suggestions that a Rosatom-operated ship may have been in any way connected to the Balticconnector pipeline incident in the Gulf of Finland on October 8," Rosatom said in a statement to Reuters.

"It passed through the Gulf of Finland, an area of intense maritime traffic, without stopping or slowing down, maintaining an average speed of 14.5 knots. The crew did not observe or record anything unusual, suspicious, or otherwise reportable."

US sanctions three China-based companies over supplying missile parts to Pakistan

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-pakistan/us-sanctions-three-china-based-companies-over-supplying-missile-parts-to-pakistan-idUSKBN31K1FK

The United States issued sanctions on Friday on three China-based companies that have worked to supply missile‐applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, the State Department said.

(This story has been corrected to add the missing word 'parts' in the headline)

US puts sanctions on three Chinese companies for missile parts supplies to Pakistan

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-pakistan/us-puts-sanctions-on-three-chinese-companies-for-missile-parts-supplies-to-pakistan-idUSKBN31K1FK

The United States is imposing sanctions on three China-based companies that it said on Friday have worked to supply missile‐applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.

A U.S. State Department statement identified the firms as General Technology Limited, Beijing Luo Luo Technology Development Co Ltd, and Changzhou Utek Composite Company Ltd.

It said General Technology had worked to supply brazing materials used to join components in ballistic missile rocket engines and in the production of combustion chambers; Beijing Luo Luo had worked to supply mandrels and other machinery, which can be used in the production of solid-propellant rocket motors, the U.S. said.

The third firm, Changzhou Utek Composite, had worked since 2019 to supply D-glass fiber, quartz fabric, and high silica cloth, all of which have applications in missile systems, the statement said.

"Today's actions demonstrate that the United States will continue to act against proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery, and associated procurement activities of concern, wherever they occur," the statement said.

China's embassy in Washington and Changzhou Utek Composite did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The other two firms could not immediately be reached for comment.

China says US accusation of “risky“ aerial intercepts politically motivated

https://reuters.com/article/china-usa-military/china-says-us-accusation-of-risky-aerial-intercepts-politically-motivated-idUSKBN31K1DB

China's defence ministry said on Friday that a U.S. Department of Defense statement accusing its military of "risky and coercive" aerial intercepts was a premeditated smear on China with ulterior political motives.

"China is firmly opposed to it and has lodged stern representations to the U.S. side," the ministry said in a statement.

The U.S. Department of Defense said on Tuesday that Chinese fighter jets had been increasingly engaging in coercive and risky operational behavior in the Indo-Pacific since 2021.

It added that: "The unsafe interceptions of U.S. and allied aircraft in international airspace is a centralized and concerted campaign by Chinese officials to coerce a change in lawful U.S. operational activity".

The Chinese defence ministry said in response that the U.S. had been hyping up a "Chinese military threat" that it said was non-existent.

"The root cause of the maritime and air military security issues between China and the U.S. lies in the fact that U.S. warships and planes come to China's doorstep from afar to cause trouble and provocation," the ministry said.

It urged the U.S. to stop what it called provocative actions, avoid "misunderstandings and misjudgment" and prevent maritime and air accidents.

Chinese, Russian vessels in vicinity of Baltic Sea links damage -vessel tracking data

https://reuters.com/article/finland-estonia-gas/chinese-russian-vessels-in-vicinity-of-baltic-sea-links-damage-vessel-tracking-data-idUSKBN31K1AA

A Chinese container vessel and a Russian-flagged ship investigated over damage to a gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland were also present at the sites, and at around the time two telecoms cables sustained damage, vessel tracking data showed.

Early on Oct. 8, a gas pipeline and a telecoms cable connecting Finland and Estonia were broken, in what Finnish investigators say may have been deliberate sabotage.

On Tuesday, Sweden said a third link, connecting Stockholm to Tallinn, had been damaged at roughly the same time as the other two.

The incidents have stoked concerns about the security of energy supply in the wider Nordic region, prompted NATO to ramp up patrols in the Baltic Sea and Helsinki to contact Moscow and Beijing via diplomatic channels about the incidents.

Only two ships were present at all three sites around the approximate time when the damage occurred, according to data from MarineTraffic, a ship-tracking and maritime analytics provider.

The ships are: the NewNew Polar Bear, a Chinese container ship travelling between China and Europe via the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, and the Sevmorput, a nuclear-powered cargo vessel transiting between Murmansk and St. Petersburg.

Finnish investigators, in charge of the pipeline investigation, are probing both ships, as well as others, they said on Tuesday.

Based on vessel tracking data, Reuters matched the ships' path with the locations where the damage occurred at all three sites.

The locations match the movements of military and service vessels deployed to investigate the incidents.

Finnish and Estonian authorities have also established restricted navigation zones around the incident sites in the Gulf of Finland.

In the first incident, which involved the Swedish-Estonian telecoms cable, the NewNew Polar Bear passed over the link at 1813 EET (1513 GMT) on Oct. 7, while the Sevmorput passed over the cable at 2008 EET, some 4 km (2.6 nautical miles) to the west of the incident site.

The cable's operator, Arelion, said the incident occurred in the "afternoon of Oct. 7". It declined to give a specific time.

In the second incident, involving the gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia, the NewNew Polar Bear passed over the infrastructure at 0120 EET on Oct. 8 (2220 GMT on Oct. 7), while the Sevmorput passed over it eight minutes earlier, at 0112 EET.

The time the NewNew Polar Bear crossed the pipeline matches the time when Norwegian seismologists registered a small seismic event in the pipeline's vicinity.

The pipeline's operators, Gasgrid and Elering, have said the gas leak occurred between 0100 and 0200 EET on Oct. 8 (2200-2300 GMT, Oct. 7).

In the third incident, on the Finland-Estonia telecoms link, the NewNew Polar Bear crossed it at 0249 EET on Oct. 8 (2349 GMT, Oct. 7), while the Sevmorput crossed it at 0226 EET the same day (2326 GMT, Oct. 7).

The cable's operator, Elisa, has declined to say when the damage occurred. The Estonian Navy said the cable was damaged about two hours after the Balticconnector incident.

NewNew Shipping, the owner and operator of the NewNew Polar Bear, declined to comment when contacted by Reuters

The Russian authority responsible for nuclear-powered vessels, Atomflot, has denied to Reuters that one of its ships had been involved. On Friday it declined to give fresh comment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed as "rubbish" the idea that Russia damaged the Finnish-Estonia gas pipeline.

Related Galleries:

Finland contacts China, Russia regarding Baltic Sea pipeline investigation

https://reuters.com/article/finland-estonia-gas-china/finland-contacts-china-russia-regarding-baltic-sea-pipeline-investigation-idUSKBN31K16A

Finland's foreign ministry said on Friday it had contacted China and Russia via diplomatic channels regarding the investigation of damage to a pipeline and a telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea.

Early on Oct. 8, a gas pipeline and a telecoms cable connecting Finland and Estonia were broken, in what Finnish investigators say may have been deliberate sabotage.

The Finnish foreign ministry, in a statement to Reuters on Friday, said it had contacted China to seek help to get in touch with the NewNew Polar Bear vessel, a ship named as a subject of investigation by Finnish police.

Regarding Russia, Finland contacted the Russian foreign ministry "stating the seriousness of the matter" and that an investigation had been launched.

A second telecoms cable, linking Sweden and Estonia, suffered a partial outage at around the same time, which may also have been caused by outside influence, Swedish and Estonian authorities have said.

Investigators have not said how the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline and the two telecoms cables may have occurred.

The incidents have stoked concerns about the security of energy supplies in the wider Nordic region and prompted the NATO military alliance to ramp up patrols in the Baltic Sea.

The Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, which is in charge of the pipeline investigation, is probing several ships, it said on Oct. 17.

Investigators named the NewNew Polar Bear, which is a Chinese container ship travelling between China and Europe via the Arctic, and the Sevmorput, a Russian nuclear-powered cargo vessel transiting between Murmansk and St. Petersburg.

NewNew Shipping, the owner and operator of the NewNew Polar Bear, declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.

The Russian authority responsible for nuclear-powered vessels, Atomflot, has previously denied that one of its ships had been involved in the incidents. It declined to give further comment on Friday.

Analysis: China and Russia find common cause in Israel-Hamas crisis

https://reuters.com/article/israel-palestinians-china-russia/analysis-china-and-russia-find-common-cause-in-israel-hamas-crisis-idUSKBN31K0S7

With anger building across the Middle East over Israel's strikes in Gaza, China and Russia are finding common cause with countries across the region in support of the Palestinians.

For Moscow and Beijing, Israel's bombardment of Gaza following the Hamas attacks that killed 1,400 Israelis presents an opportunity to burnish their credentials as the champions of the developing world, in contrast with the United States, which has put its support squarely behind ally Israel.

China has consistently called for restraint and a ceasefire but has also sharpened its criticism of Israel.

"Israel’s actions have gone beyond the scope of self-defense," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this week, called on it to stop its "collective punishment" of Gaza residents, Chinese state media reported.

Russia has expressed sympathy for the Palestinians while blaming the U.S. "I think that many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East," Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week.

Both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have sought to deepen ties to the global south, seeing economic opportunities and possibly a way to counterbalance the diplomatic influence of the U.S. and its allies.

That was on display this week as China hosted a summit for Xi's signature Belt and Road Initiative, which has lent hundreds of billions of dollars for infrastructure projects across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia.

Putin attended and met Xi for three hours of talks that included "an in-depth exchange of views on the Palestinian-Israeli situation", China said.

"China and Russia still see (the crisis) more in terms of the United States than in terms of either Palestine or Israel," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"If the United States can effectively rally the world, it’s bad for them. If the U.S. and its allies grow increasingly isolated, they see that as good for them."

While the strategies of Russia and China in the Middle East are not fully aligned they have much in common.

Russia is sharply critical of the U.S. but China has mostly avoided criticising it, a contrast to early in the Ukraine war, when China's support of Russia turned an unwelcome spotlight on its diplomatic position.

China signalled its growing influence in the Middle East this year when it announced a surprise deal on the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Russia too has been improving ties with Iran, which has included supplies of Iranian drones and common cause in backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Both China and Russia share a history of support for the Palestinians - and are critical of what they say is the marginalisation of them by the United States.

"There’s clearly a shared interest in emphasizing the negative role of the U.S. in the conflict," said Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.

"And that fits within their broader narrative on the need to build an alternative world order to the U.S."

Russia's state media has said it was sending humanitarian aid to Gaza and China has sent its Middle East envoy to the region, where he met Russia's special representative. Russia said on Thursday it was coordinating Middle East policy with China.

While Chinese media covered the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, since then reports have carried images of Palestinian suffering, with some prominently citing Palestinian sources as saying Israel was responsible.

"None of the reality that shocked much of the world on Oct. 7 is in Chinese news. Instead, the news features Israeli bombing of Gaza without explaining that the target is only Hamas infrastructure," Carice Witte, director of the SIGNAL Group, a Sino-Israel relations think tank based in Tel Aviv.

Russia's war in Ukraine gives it an added incentive to align itself with the Palestinian cause.

The United States has been trying, with limited success, to persuade the global south to rally behind Ukraine. Portraying the U.S. as a driver of the conflict helps blunt that effort.

Alterman sees a similar motivation for China, which regards the U.S. as its chief geopolitical rival.

"China is trying to play the global south card, irrespective of its close ties to Israel. More than actually supporting Hamas, it is quietly helping build resistance to U.S. efforts to build international support for Israel," said Alterman.

Ma Xiaolin, a Middle East expert and professor at Zhejiang International Studies University, said China was being even-handed between the Palestinians and Israel but if pushed, would side with its Arab partners.

"If Israel, with the support of the United States, expands the scale and scope of the war and causes more humanitarian casualties, China will definitely tilt the balance in favour of the Palestinians," said Ma.

China says US Pentagon report on nuclear warheads distorts facts

https://reuters.com/article/china-usa-warheads/china-says-us-pentagon-report-on-nuclear-warheads-distorts-facts-idUSKBN31K0L4

China's foreign ministry said on Friday said a U.S. Pentagon report saying China will probably have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 is filled with prejudice and distorts facts.

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Xi Jinping wants to be loved by the global south | China

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/10/19/xi-jinping-wants-to-be-loved-by-the-global-south

“Very few Chinese” know about the ruthless side of Zheng He, the Ming-dynasty explorer and eunuch admiral, a scholar once observed to Chaguan, unexpectedly, over tea in a Beijing courtyard house. Pouring fresh cups, the scholar—a member of China’s national-security establishment—warmed to his theme. In China, he explained, Zheng He is seen as a 15th-century “Santa Claus”, leading his fleet to Africa, Arabia and Asia to hand out porcelain and silks on behalf of his mighty, far-off emperor. But in such places as Sri Lanka, Zheng He is remembered as a terror, who punished local rulers for defying his imperial writ and shipped some of them back to China as captives. The Chinese public is “blissfully ignorant” about that history, sighed the scholar, blaming his country’s desire “to be loved”.

Much the same desire suffused the Third Belt and Road Forum, held in Beijing on October 17th and 18th. The forum commemorated the first ten years of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a lending and infrastructure scheme that has seen China build dams, bridges, ports and more on four continents. In part, the opening speech by Xi Jinping, the Communist Party chief, was a guide to how the BRI is changing. With China’s growth slowing, and many existing BRI projects mired in debt, there is less emphasis now on billion-dollar loans and on pouring concrete, and more on promoting Chinese standards and technologies, notably in green and digital infrastructure, and on “small yet smart” grassroots projects. In larger part, though, Mr Xi’s speech was a call for China to be loved.

Addressing foreign dignitaries in the Great Hall of the People, Mr Xi made a case for Chinese exceptionalism. He presented his country as a peace-loving giant, guided by the centuries-old spirit of the Silk Road. In this telling, China’s Silk Road spirit is not a charitable impulse, but something more dependable: namely, a pragmatic pursuit of prosperity via mutually profitable trade. Though Mr Xi did not mention Zheng He by name, his government’s white paper on the BRI, published on the forum’s eve, cites the navigator as an inspiration, hailing his seven maritime expeditions that “boosted trade along the maritime silk routes”.

The admiral’s ghost hung over the speech as Mr Xi repeated one of his favourite claims about China’s past. “The pioneers of the ancient silk routes won their place in history not as conquerors with warships, guns, horses or swords,” he declared. “Rather, they are remembered as friendly emissaries leading camel caravans and sailing ships loaded with goods.” Without mentioning the conflicts raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, Mr Xi contrasted this Chinese focus on trade and development with the selfishness of world powers that are bent on “ideological confrontation”. He announced a Global Initiative for Artificial Intelligence Governance. Though global in name, this promotes a very Chinese worldview. It would defer to the laws (and censors) of sovereign states, and prohibit America’s current export controls on chips that enable AI. In a volatile world, Mr Xi said, the BRI is “on the right side of history”. He added a rebuke for countries that practise “economic coercion”. Foreign leaders in the hall were polite enough not to snigger or gasp, though China routinely uses trade as a weapon.

As ever in China, much of this propaganda is aimed at domestic audiences. Chinese state media offered blanket coverage of the forum, asserting that over 140 countries sent representatives. They did not mention that just 21 heads of state and government turned up, fewer than attended the first and second forums, held in 2017 and 2019—not least because few Western governments wished to share a stage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Mr Xi’s guest of honour. Only one leader from the European Union attended, the Kremlin-friendly Viktor Orban of Hungary.

Mr Putin gave a speech directly after Mr Xi’s. To a striking extent it reflected his growing dependence on China. As a result of Western sanctions imposed after his invasion of Ukraine, China is now the largest buyer of Russian energy, and Chinese exports to Russia have soared. Thanking his “dear friend” Mr Xi for the invitation to Beijing, Mr Putin played dutiful cheerleader for the BRI. Sounding at times like his own transport minister, Mr Putin reeled off lists of BRI-compatible railway lines and logistics corridors that Russia plans to build. He praised the opening last year of a bridge across the Amur river between China and Russia, not mentioning that Russian officials dragged their feet on that project for years before rushing to finish it once the Ukraine war broke out. Forgetting Russia’s long-standing wariness of Chinese investment in the Arctic, he invited “interested states” to take part in the development of a Northern Sea Route opening up as sea ice retreats.

Putin as a character witness

In interviews with Chinese state media, Mr Putin offered still more praise. When offering economic opportunities to other countries, Mr Xi’s China never imposes or enforces its will, he said. This, he averred, makes the BRI different from policies pushed by countries with a heavy colonial legacy. Once more, that language echoes Chinese talking points. China’s white paper casts the BRI’s model of development as a challenge to “the exploitative colonialism of the past”. It is the spirit of the Belt and Road to advocate equality, it argues, in contrast to those who push “the superiority of Western civilisation”.

Attacks on Western arrogance resonate with many developing countries. If the BRI offers useful technologies, skills or investments, many governments will take that deal. Some countries support China’s proposals for global governance, especially if that means fewer questions about their political systems, or human rights. But those leaders in the Great Hall of the People are not dupes. For one thing, many remember their history, and how Chinese naval fleets and armies brought their countries much more than trade over the centuries. Mr Xi’s China is taken seriously, especially by its neighbours. Love has nothing to do with it.■

Read more from Chaguan, our columnist on China:
China’s ties with America are warming, a bit (Oct 12th)
China wants to be the leader of the global south (Sep 21st)
Xi Jinping builds a 21st-century police state (Sep 14th)

Also: How the Chaguan column got its name

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China expanding nuclear arsenal much faster than predicted, US report says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/20/china-expanding-nuclear-arsenal-much-faster-than-predicted-us-report-says

A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like.

The report released on Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.”

The China report comes a month before an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.

The annual report, required by Congress, is one way the Pentagon measures the growing military capabilities of China, which the US government sees as its key threat in the region and America’s primary long-term security challenge.

But after Hamas’s 7 October attacks on Israel, the US has been forced again to focus on the Middle East, instead of its widely promoted pivot to the Pacific to counter China’s growth. The US is rushing weapons to Israel while continuing to support and deliver munitions to Ukraine in its 20-month struggle to repel Russia’s invasion.

Still, the Pentagon’s national defense strategy is shaped around China remaining the greatest security challenge for the US, and that the threat from Beijing will determine how the US military is equipped and shaped for the future.

The Pentagon report builds on the military’s warning in 2022 that China was expanding its nuclear force much faster than US officials had predicted, highlighting a broad and accelerating buildup of military muscle designed to enable Beijing to match or surpass US global power by midcentury.

Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has to 1,500 by 2035. The US has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.

The 2023 report finds that Beijing is on pace to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid modernization aimed at meeting Xi’s goal of having a “world class” military by 2049.

After the previous report, China accused the US of ratcheting up tensions and Beijing said it was still committed to a “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons.

The Pentagon has seen no indication that China is moving away from that policy but assesses there may be some circumstances where China might judge that it does not apply, a senior US defense official said without providing details. The official briefed reporters on Wednesday on condition of anonymity before the report’s release.

The US does not adhere to a “no first use” policy and says nuclear weapons would be used only in “extreme circumstances.”

The report said China is intensifying military, diplomatic and economic pressure not only on Taiwan but also toward all its regional neighbours to push back against what it sees as US efforts to contain its rise. The pressure against Taipei includes ballistic missile overflights, increased warplane incursions into its international defence zone and a large-scale military exercise last August that encircled Taiwan.

Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary. Xi has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capability to retake the self-ruled island democracy that the Communist party claims as its own territory.

The US has committed billions of dollars in military weapons to Taiwan to build up its defences and help it rebuff any potential attack.

But China also has devoted billions to its military. According to its public budget numbers, China’s military spending for 2023 rose 7.2% to 1.58 trillion yuan, or $216bn in US dollars, outpacing its economic growth. US officials say the actual figure may be much higher. Beijing says it implements a defensive military policy to protect the country’s interests.

The report also noted that China has increased its harassment of US warplanes flying in international airspace in the region and recorded more than 180 instances where Chinese aircraft aggressively intercepted US military flights.

China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict

https://reuters.com/article/china-taiwan-sanctions/china-weighs-options-to-blunt-u-s-sanctions-in-a-taiwan-conflict-idUSKBN31K04U

In a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under U.S. sanctions, seize American assets within its borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds, according to Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

The sanctions against Moscow have prompted hundreds of Chinese economists, financiers, and geopolitical analysts to examine how China should mitigate extreme scenarios, including loss of access to U.S. dollars, according to a Reuters review of more than 200 Chinese-language policy papers and academic articles published since February 2022.

"In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China," wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province.

China, he said, should "prepare for a rainy day" to ensure its financial and economic stability.

The specificity of the scenarios and potential countermeasures are being reported for the first time by Reuters.

In assessing Russia's experience, many of the researchers warn that China's much larger economy and dependence on advanced foreign technology and commodity imports mean a sanctions fight with the West could be far more destructive. Some doubled down on the view that increasing interdependence could be a better approach than pulling up the shutters.

Senior U.S. military officers have said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Beijing has not ruled out using force to take the island, though it has never shared details about war preparations.

But discussions about U.S. sanctions, including from researchers within China's foreign and financial policy establishment, surged 50% in the 12 months following the start of the war in Ukraine compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, according to a review of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the country's largest database of academic literature.

"Analysing various possible scenarios and coming up with China's prevention, response and countermeasures are undoubtedly a top priority for China's policymakers," Yu Yongding, an economist and former central bank adviser, wrote in a journal article in July 2022.

Reuters contacted all the researchers named in this story directly or through their institutions but most declined to comment or did not respond. Yu referred Reuters to an op-ed he wrote on decoupling.

The PBOC said in a statement that the research papers written by its employees represent their personal views. The central bank did not address questions about its sanctions planning.

China's State Council Information Office did not respond to queries about Beijing's contingency planning.

The freezing of more than $300 billion in Russian central bank foreign currency assets and the removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT interbank payments system last year have particularly worried Chinese experts, given China's more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and its export-dependent economy.

"The risk that China's overseas reserve assets may be frozen seems more imminent," wrote Wang Yongli, general manager of China International Futures, one of the country's largest commodities and financial futures brokerage businesses.

Wang and several PBOC researchers wrote in articles that if the U.S. implemented Russia-style sanctions on China, Beijing should freeze U.S. investment and pension funds and seize the assets of U.S. companies. The papers did not name individual companies as potential targets.

Researchers have also formulated unconventional solutions to China's dependence on the U.S. dollar, partly inspired by Moscow's policies.

The Beijing-based China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), which counts former commerce ministers among its leaders, published several analyses on lessons China should learn from Russia.

Sun Xiaotao, a CCIEE researcher, published an article in February that argues China should push for more gold-denominated trade to prevent major fluctuations of the yuan - echoing the Russian central bank's decision to increase its gold reserves by one million ounces since the Ukraine war began.

Reuters could not determine the extent to which the think tanks influence China's decision-making, but they are known to brief and write reports for leading officials.

Some of China's policies align with the papers' recommendations. Central bank data earlier in October showed the PBOC increased its official gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month.

Besides financial sanctions, Russia's response to Western pressure on its oil, gas, metals, and chips industry has given food for thought to Chinese researchers.

Mou Lingzhi, an academic at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in January that Russia's demand that its natural gas be paid for in roubles should spur China to accelerate the promotion of yuan pricing of commodities such as lithium, which is crucial for electric vehicle batteries.

Central bank researchers have echoed the point, with one from a PBOC branch in the island province of Hainan, Xia Fan, writing last November that China should "accelerate the process of international energy settlement" in yuan to weaken the dollar's dominance in the oil market.

Researchers at China Minmetals Corporation, one of the country's top miners, wrote in June that emergency plans to guarantee supplies of iron, copper, nickel, and other strategic metals were needed, noting that Russian nickel products were suspended from the London Metals Exchange as a consequence of the war in Ukraine.

Other researchers called for a new economic grouping that could protect China in a sanctions tit-for-tat.

Ye Yan, an economist at China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company, wrote in January that the cheaper Russian oil China has enjoyed as a result of Western sanctions had created a model for a future "anti-sanctions corporate network" that would allow member countries to trade discounted goods.

Chinese researchers also suggested Beijing exploit cracks within the European Union and between the U.S. and its allies. One foreign analyst said there could be a lack of unity in the West.

"Achieving broad international consensus for a sanctions coalition on China would be orders of magnitude harder than for Russia due to the much larger volume of investments there and reliance on its market," said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Some analysts have highlighted the limits of yuan internationalisation, arguing instead that China should blunt sanctions by increasing its economic links with the U.S. and its allies.

Yu, the former PBOC adviser, wrote in his 2022 paper that it was unlikely the U.S. would seize trillions of dollars or refuse to pay the principal and interest on Treasury bills China holds.

"Due to the close economic and financial ties between China and the United States, the United States will not do something like 'kill a thousand enemies and injure eight hundred of its own,'" Yu wrote.

Wang, the China International Futures official, made a similar argument last year, noting that gold was not a practical replacement of dollar reserves because of the costs and risks associated with the transport and storage of large quantities of the metal.

In light of these issues, many of the researchers suggest Beijing further open domestic financial markets to tie the interests of the U.S., its allies, as well as companies from these countries with China, increasing the costs of sanctions.

Partly in response to this, the EU and U.S. have sought to derisk and diversify supply chains and on-shore production of chips. But these policies would take time to bear fruit, Chorzempa said.

"China's much more pronounced role in global value chains would also give it more opportunities for circumvention (of sanctions), and its ability to substitute foreign technology for indigenous production is far stronger than Russia's", he said.

Chen, the PBOC researcher, considered the "nuclear" option of China's excision from SWIFT, and concluded that increasing cooperation with the U.S. was the best way to shield China.

"The mutual penetration of the Chinese and American economies will inevitably weaken the willingness to impose financial sanctions," he wrote.

Related Galleries:

Driver who crashed into Chinese consulate carried knife, crossbow

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-consulate/driver-who-crashed-into-chinese-consulate-carried-knife-crossbow-idUSKBN31K04G

A Chinese citizen who crashed his car into the Chinese consulate in San Francisco on Oct. 9 appeared to slash at a policeman with a knife as they scuffled before the officer shot him dead, newly released video of the confrontation showed on Thursday.

In addition to recovering the weapon seen wielded by the suspect - a folding knife with a 3-1/2-inch (8.9 cm) blade - officers also found a loaded crossbow with arrows in the backseat of the man's vehicle, police said.

Footage captured by police body-worn cameras was released during a 90-minute "town hall meeting," an online briefing the San Francisco Police Department typically presents within 10 days of any officer-involved shooting as part of its public transparency routine.

The department's internal review of police conduct in the incident was continuing, along with a separate investigation into the overall case itself.

San Francisco Police Chief William Scott said the deceased suspect, Zhanyuan Yang, 31, was a Chinese national. He made no mention of Yang's immigration status or whether he had any connection to the consulate. A department spokeswoman said she was not at liberty to answer those questions.

Scott said police "don't have anything further to release to the public" regarding possible motives for the attack.

According to police, Yang plowed his Honda sedan into the lobby of the consulate visa office around 3 p.m. In recordings of emergency-911 calls played during Thursday's presentation, eyewitnesses were heard describing the driver as armed with a gun and bleeding from the head when he emerged from the vehicle.

The only weapons recovered from the scene, police said, were the knife and crossbow, which somewhat resembled a rifle.

Police said two security guards inside the consulate initially restrained Yang until police arrived minutes later.

Bodycam video showed the police sergeant and one of the guards struggling to pin Yang to a wall as he turns toward them, making what police described as "multiple, rapid, downward swinging motions" in their direction with the knife, which is visible in the footage.

As two more police officers burst into the lobby, the sergeant can be seen stepping back before he draws his weapon and shoots the suspect at close range. Yang was later pronounced dead at a hospital.

Nobody else was injured, but the sergeant and others in the lobby can be heard coughing as they inhale fumes of pepper spray that police said was unleashed prior to officers' arrival in the building. It was not made clear who fired the pepper spray.

At the time of the incident, China's foreign mission condemned what it called a "violent attack" on the consulate, demanding a thorough investigation.

China is set to dominate the deep sea and its wealth of rare metals

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/china-deep-sea-mining-military-renewable-energy/2023-08-02T01:33:22.046Z

KINGSTON, Jamaica — When the 5,100-ton Dayang Hao, one of China’s most advanced deep-water expedition vessels, left port south of Shanghai two months ago, a red-and-white banner — the kind used to blast Communist Party exhortations — reminded the crew of their mission: “Strive, explore, contribute.”

The Dayang Hao was bound for a 28,500-square-mile stretch of the Pacific Ocean between Japan and Hawaii where China has exclusive rights to prospect for lumpy, golf-ball-size rocks that are millions of years old and worth trillions of dollars.

It is China’s latest contract, won in 2019, to explore for “polymetallic nodules,” which are rich in manganese, cobalt, nickel and copper — metals needed for everything from electric cars to advanced weapons systems. They lie temptingly on the ocean floor, just waiting to be hoovered up.

Whether working deep at sea or on land at the headquarters of the United Nations’ seabed regulator here in Kingston, Beijing is striving to get a jump on the burgeoning industry of deep-sea mining.

China already holds five of the 30 exploration licenses that the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has granted to date — the most of any country — in preparation for the start of deep-sea mining as soon as 2025. When that happens, China will have exclusive rights to excavate 92,000 square miles of international seabed — about the size of the United Kingdom — or 17 percent of the total area currently licensed by the ISA.

The ocean floor is shaping up to be the world’s next theater of global resource competition — and China is set to dominate it. The sea is believed to hold several times what land does of these rare metals, which are critical for almost all of today’s electronics, clean-energy products and advanced computer chips. As countries race to cut greenhouse gas emissions, demand for these minerals is expected to skyrocket.

When deep-sea mining begins, China — which already controls 95 percent of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals and produces three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries — will extend its chokehold over emerging industries like clean energy. Mining will also give Beijing a potent new tool in its escalating rivalry with the United States. As a sign of how these resources could be weaponized, China in August started restricting exports of two metals that are key to U.S. defense systems.

“If China can take the lead in seabed mining, it really has the lock on access to all the key minerals for the 21st-century green economy,” said Carla Freeman, senior expert for China at the United States Institute of Peace.

In the case of polymetallic nodules, that means sending robotic vehicles as deep as 18,000 feet to the vast, dark seafloor, where they will slowly vacuum up about four inches of seabed, then pump it up to a ship.

The area marked for mining, though less than 1 percent of the total international seabed, would still be huge. The 30 exploration contracts cover 540,000 square miles but are concentrated in an expanse of the Pacific called the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Spanning 3,100 miles, it is wider than the contiguous United States and contains up to six times the cobalt and three times the nickel in all land-based reserves.

In its quest to dominate this industry, China has focused its efforts on the Kingston-based ISA, housed in a weathered limestone building overlooking the Caribbean Sea. By wielding influence at an organization where it is by far the most powerful player — the United States is not a member of the ISA — Beijing has a chance to shape international rules to its advantage.

This approach is key to Xi Jinping’s bid for global preeminence. China’s strongest leader in decades, Xi is set on transforming China into a global power that is no longer beholden to the West, including by becoming a maritime power able to compete militarily with the United States.

“If you want to become a global power, you have to maintain the security of your sea lanes and interests. So becoming a maritime power is inevitable,” said Zhu Feng, executive director of the China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea at Nanjing University.

The United States has done little to respond to China’s moves in the deep sea. It is only an observer at the ISA, meaning it’s at risk of being sidelined as the rules for this future industry are being made. Unlike China, U.S. companies do not have any exploration contracts with the ISA, and critics say Washington lacks a clear plan on how to compete in this new industry.

“The logic is that if we don’t make the rules, they will,” said Isaac Kardon, the author of “China’s Law of the Sea” and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“These are frontier areas of international law where there’s not an obvious regime, and it’s especially appealing because the U.S. isn’t there,” he said. “It’s an obvious front in whatever this great-power competition is.”

China’s ‘slowly and surely’ approach pays off

It was almost 9 on a mid-July evening when Gou Haibo, tall and lean in a dark suit, emerged from more than six hours of closed-door talks at ISA headquarters.

The Chinese delegation member stopped to smoke a cigarette in a garden outside the main hall, where he would present his country’s case on the issue at hand: how to open up the international seabed, which covers more than half the planet, to industrial mining.

The ISA is under pressure to come up with rules after the Pacific island of Nauru, partnering with Canadian firm The Metals Company, in 2021 triggered a provision that requires the organization to allow mining within two years, even if a regulatory code is not in place.

ISA member countries must come to an agreement on a final code or face the possibility of mining proceeding unrestricted. For now, further discussion of the “two-year rule” has been shunted to next year.

China, according to Gou, wants things to move faster. He took issue with the group’s declaration, after days of negotiation, that countries “intend to” agree on a set of regulations by the end of 2025.

“The Chinese delegation still prefers the original term — ‘commits,’” Gou told the meeting. Otherwise, he said, “it seems a little unclear what we are going to do in the coming months or in the coming years.”

China’s stance was an example of the persistence with which its diplomats work to be heard and to direct proceedings at the ISA.

Delegates and former ISA staffers describe Beijing as wielding quiet influence through various channels, including by hosting workshops and dinners lubricated by baijiu, the notoriously strong Chinese liquor.

Sandor Mulsow, who held senior positions at the ISA from 2013 to 2019, said China has a “very strong and long-term agenda.”

“China always works very slowly and surely, and they keep going,” he said.

As of 2021, China became the biggest contributor to the organization’s administrative budget, the ISA said. Beijing regularly donates to various ISA funds and, in 2020, announced a joint training center with the ISA in the Chinese port city of Qingdao.

“It’s quite clear that when China speaks, everyone tends to listen and tries to accommodate,” said Pradeep Singh, an expert on ocean governance with the Research Institute for Sustainability in Germany who has been attending ISA meetings since 2018.

In July, the Chinese delegation showed up in force. It included representatives from the country’s foreign and natural resources ministries, its permanent mission to the ISA, and the three state-run companies that control the country’s five exploration contracts.

At a time when Western participation in the U.N. system is declining, Chinese scholars and officials have been pushing for a bigger role at organizations like the ISA — heeding Xi’s call to improve Beijing’s international clout. On the 52-member staff of the ISA’s secretariat, which administers the organization, two positions are held by Chinese nationals. A commission on legal affairs and a committee on financial matters include one Chinese national each. Experts nominated by China are always in those bodies, according to Secretary General Michael Lodge.

“If you have people in those positions, you’re going to know everything that’s going on,” said James McFarlane, head of the Office of Resources and Environmental Monitoring at the ISA from 2009 to 2011.

Asked whether China exercises more influence because of its financial contributions, Lodge said: “Every state participates to the extent that it decides to do so.”

China’s Foreign Ministry, the Chinese Embassy in Jamaica and the three Chinese contractors did not respond to multiple requests for interviews. Delegates at the meetings in Kingston declined to speak on the record.

But experts who are watching closely say that Beijing is being strategic in its approach.

“China is probably the single most-active country in the ISA,” said Peter Dutton, a professor of international law at the U.S. Naval War College. “One of the things that the Chinese are doing very effectively is engaging in the rulemaking, and writing regulations that can favor their interests. They’re out there ahead of us, and that’s one area we need to be concerned about.”

Mastering technology, minimizing environmental risk

For China, deep-sea mining has never been entirely about natural resources. It has also been about overturning the traditional international order dominated by the West.

In the 1960s and 1970s, as researchers realized the extent of the ocean’s mineral wealth, the question over who has a right to those resources became ideological.

Rich countries like the United States wanted to operate on a first-come, first-served basis while China, a developing country, sided with Global South nations and said the spoils should be shared. China’s side won, and the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), agreed upon in 1982, has been ratified by most countries. The United States recognizes the convention but has not ratified it, in part because of opposition to its provisions on seabed mining.

Under the convention, the ISA was established in 1994 and charged with overseeing deep-sea mining. U.S. critics say acceding to the treaty would undermine U.S. sovereignty on the high seas by handing power to the ISA.

China was one of the first countries to send a permanent mission to the ISA. The Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper declared UNCLOS a victory against “maritime hegemony,” while the head of China’s State Oceanic Administration called it the “formation of a new international maritime order.”

China joined the deep-sea race and has spent the past few decades steadily investing more in technology and equipment, catching up with its Western rivals — who had been far ahead — and, in some areas, surpassing them.

In 2001, the country’s first deep-sea mining contractor, China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association, or COMRA, won China’s first license to explore for polymetallic nodules.

China is now home to at least 12 institutions dedicated to deep-sea research — one of them, a sprawling campus in Wuxi, Jiangsu province, plans to hire 4,000 people by 2025. Dozens of colleges have sprung up to focus on marine sciences.

In a speech in 2016, Xi talked about accessing the “treasures” of the ocean and ordered his country to “master key technologies for entering the deep sea.”

At the heart of the debate about deep-sea mining is whether this can be done in a way that doesn’t harm ocean ecosystems and species. Scientists say this kind of activity on the seafloor will destroy a library of information important to medical breakthroughs, understanding the origins of life, and other advances.

Environmentalists say deep-sea mining will disturb the world’s largest natural carbon sink, which absorbs one-third of carbon dioxide generated on land. Mining platforms, machinery and transport ships will add to noise and pollution that damage marine life.

In addition to polymetallic nodules, two other types of deposits are being considered for ocean mining — polymetallic sulfides, found in hydrothermal vents, and metal-rich cobalt crusts, which lie in hardened layers along underwater mountains. Both will be even harder to mine.

Environmentalists also worry that China’s history of privileging industry over the environment will lead to diluted regulations. Residents and authorities in southeastern China are still grappling with the widespread soil and water pollution caused by a boom in mining for rare-earth metals starting in the 1990s.

Over the three-week session in July, Chinese delegates advised the ISA to be “prudent” in levying financial punishments on contractors that violate rules. The delegation opposed the creation of an independent commission to ensure companies follow environmental regulations.

For the entire last week of the meeting, China single-handedly blocked debate on maritime protection, including discussion of a moratorium on deep-sea mining, a proposal that is now supported by 22 countries concerned about environmental damage.

Chinese officials often say environmental preservation must be balanced against the need for development — an approach that concerns other delegates.

“If you balance these, then it would not be effective. It’s a mandate of UNCLOS,” said Gina Guillen-Grillo, head of the Costa Rican delegation, citing UNCLOS Article 145, which says countries must ensure “effective protection for the marine environment from harmful effects.”

“You have to comply with it, and once you comply with it, you can mine,” she said. “It’s not like you can mine a little and comply a little.”

But proponents say that deep-sea mining is the world’s only industry to be regulated before it exists and that it is necessary for the electric cars and other technologies that will help avert climate disaster.

Contractors like The Metals Company — the only firm to test a full deep-sea mining system in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone — are ahead in the technology race, but Chinese companies are catching up.

“They are starting to build momentum,” said Gerard Barron, CEO of The Metals Company, referring to the three Chinese firms in control of China’s exploration claims. “We are seeing, certainly, an increase in activity. They now have substantial budgets that they didn’t have two years ago.”

In 2021, China’s COMRA tested a system to collect polymetallic nodules at a depth of 4,200 feet in the East and South China Seas.

“When it comes to writing international deep-sea rules, China’s voice is getting stronger,” Liu Feng, then head of COMRA, wrote in a 2021 paper.

China is now positioning itself as a leader ready to teach other countries about the sea. Its domestically produced submersibles are capable of diving more than 35,000 feet to the bottom of the Mariana Trench, the deepest point on Earth.

“Now we have this equipment, we can make up for lost time,” Wang Pinxian, a Chinese marine geologist who spearheaded some of China’s earliest deep-sea programs, said in an interview. “China can be its own master and can host and work with people from developing countries.”

Mining technology with military applications

While the Dayang Hao was prospecting for polymetallic nodules in the past few months, Beijing Pioneer Hi-Tech Development — the Chinese contractor in control of that claim area — was testing a high-precision survey system that can operate at depths of more than 19,000 feet. The vessel had students from Kenya, Argentina, Nigeria and Malaysia on board, where they studied the ocean and played tug of war, according to state media.

Such benign descriptions belie what researchers say is the other clear purpose of China’s deep-sea program: to develop military advantages in the ocean.

The research needed to prepare for deep-sea mining — measuring the acoustics or temperature of currents, mapping the topography, and developing equipment that can operate under high pressure at low visibility — is the same as that needed for underwater warfare.

“When they’re sending submersibles, the planners behind it are thinking about minerals but they’re also thinking about how to take advantage of the deep sea for military advantage, not just anti-submarine warfare but also for their submarines,” said Alexander Gray, a former White House National Security Council official now at the American Foreign Policy Council.

China has also signaled that it’s thinking this way. China’s national security law now includes the international seabed as an area where Chinese assets and interests must be guarded. China’s Central Military Commission, which oversees the country’s armed forces, has identified the deep sea as a new battlefield.

Chinese scholars have flagged the importance of polymetallic nodules for military and aerospace equipment, while China’s People’s Liberation Army noted the opportunities of the deep sea for modern warfare in a 2022 article.

There are close connections among China’s academic, commercial and military sectors, and several of the country’s most ambitious deep-sea mining projects have been funded under military research programs. China Minmetals, one of the contractors in control of China’s deep-sea exploration licenses, carried out mining tests under the 863 Program, a government initiative to develop cutting-edge technology for national security.

These close links make it difficult to know when Chinese deep-sea survey ships are collecting data for scientific or military purposes.

According to ship-tracking data collected by Global Fishing Watch and the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory at the University of California at Santa Barbara, Chinese deep-sea survey vessels, including the Dayang Hao, have in recent years ventured into the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, Palau and the United States.

One of those ships, the Kexue, did surveying for 20 days in July and August 2022 near the Scarborough Shoal, one of the most contested areas in the South China Sea and the site of an ongoing showdown between China and the Philippines, which both claim the atoll. The Dayang Hao also appeared to conduct ocean bed surveying in exclusive economic zones of the Philippines and Malaysia, near the disputed Spratly Islands.

Under international law, it is illegal to conduct commercial or scientific research in another country’s exclusive economic zone without permission.

Harrison Prétat, associate director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said China’s vast fleet of survey vessels could be collecting information for the Chinese military.

“In all likelihood, many of these surveys are both scientific and military, or commercial and military,” Prétat said.

At the end of 2021, a sister vessel of the Dayang Hao, the Dayang Yihao, was exploring the Clarion-Clipperton Zone as part of a four-month expedition by China Minmetals when it suddenly traveled away from China’s claim area, heading straight north. It crossed into the U.S. exclusive economic zone near Hawaii, where it traveled for five days, tracing a loop just south of Honolulu, before returning to its claim area.

The State Department did not receive a request from China to conduct scientific research in the U.S. zone on those dates, a spokesperson said.

The detour would have given researchers a chance to understand the seabed topography around Hawaii, or the conditions of naval operations and how submarines move in and out.

“The U.S. would be concerned if any state-owned vessel was close,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Such movements are a concern for both countries — and one that will only become more pressing as deep-sea mining becomes a reality.

“For China, as it becomes a maritime power,” said Zhu, of Nanjing University, “how and whether it can establish a mechanism for working with the United States is definitely a difficult problem.”

About this story

Story by Lily Kuo, with research by Pei-Lin Wu. Story editing by Anna Fifield. Project editing by Courtney Kan. Photo editing by Jennifer Samuel. Video editing by Jason Aldag. Graphics by Samuel Granados. Design and development by Kat Rudell-Brooks and Yutao Chen. Design editing by Joe Moore. Copy editing by Melissa Ngo and Martha Murdock.

China’s nuclear arsenal on track to double by 2030, Pentagon reports

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/19/china-military-power-report-nuclear/2023-10-19T14:56:00.830Z

China has developed an arsenal of more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is set to double that number by the end of the decade, exceeding previous Pentagon estimates, according to a Department of Defense report.

The figures, released in an unclassified public report to Congress on Thursday, are part of a broad assessment of China’s military goals and developments in the past year, and highlight the rapid advances in Beijing’s multi-decade plan to build a nuclear weapons arsenal that rivals that of the United States.

“What they’re doing now, if you compare it to what they were doing about a decade ago, it really far exceeds that in terms of scale and complexity,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under terms set by the Pentagon.

“They’re expanding and investing in their land, sea and air base nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this major expansion of their nuclear forces,” the official said.

Beijing has long maintained that its nuclear weapons program is only a deterrent and that it is committed to a “no first use” doctrine, meaning they have pledged to only use such weapons in response to a nuclear attack.

“China is committed to a defensive nuclear strategy, keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security and does not target any country,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington on Thursday.

“We firmly oppose the U.S. side hyping up various versions of the ‘China threat’ narrative and making groundless allegations,” Liu added.

More broadly, the Pentagon report highlighted that communications between the military leadership of China and the United States had continued to deteriorate into 2023, despite a significant expansion in Chinese military capabilities and a series of highly concerning close calls between U.S. and Chinese military aircraft in the South China Sea.

Chinese fighter jets buzz U.S. planes in dramatic new videos

The report said China’s navy — already the world’s largest by number of vessels — had grown to 370 ships and submarines, up from around 340 a year earlier. Among the new vessels launched in 2022 is the country’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, which appears to be fitted with advanced aircraft-launching technology, representing a major departure from its older Soviet-style ships.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon shared videos showing what it said were instances when Chinese fighter jets had maneuvered dangerously close to U.S. reconnaissance planes — swooping as close as within 15 feet of the American aircraft.

The Department of Defense said in Thursday’s report that it counted 180 such incidents in the two years since fall 2021, more than in the entire preceding decade. It said the risky maneuvers “increased the risk of a major accident, incident or crisis, including the potential for loss of life.”

The U.S. reconnaissance flights over the South China Sea are lawful under international rules, but China — which claims sovereignty over most of the waterway — considers them an open provocation. Liu said the Chinese measures were in response to U.S. military vessels and aircraft conducting “frequent close-in reconnaissance” on China, including “657 sorties” in the South China Sea last year.

The Pentagon report noted that other parts of China’s military programs had probably expanded in the past year, including the construction of missile silo fields, the development of its bioweapons program, and efforts to establish overseas military bases beyond confirmed locations in Djibouti and Cambodia.

China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia, Western officials say

China’s defense spending has risen steadily in recent years, up 7.2 percent in 2023 to around $212 billion, much of which has been earmarked for cutting-edge technology and upgrades to make the country’s fighting force combat ready. Beijing’s leadership has made public commitments to take Taiwan by force if necessary.

But cracks have appeared this year in the country’s senior military leadership. Defense minister Li Shangfu has disappeared from sight and is believed to have been ousted over corruption allegations. It follows the summer removal of high-level officials at one of the country’s top military units — the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force — that hint at a wider crackdown.

Beijing has yet to announce a new defense minister, and the Pentagon report said Chinese military leadership had “refused, canceled and ignored” Washington’s requests to open military communication channels into 2023, despite Beijing’s growing weapons arsenal and the spike in close calls between U.S. and Chinese military aircraft.

“We certainly think it’s been unfortunate when we haven’t been able to have those senior level engagements at the Shangri-La Dialog, for instance” said the senior defense official, referring to the notably brief meeting between Li and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in June. “The handshake was not a substitute for a more in-depth, substantive discussion.”

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