真相集中营

英文媒体关于中国的报道汇总 2023-09-30

October 1, 2023   53 min   11155 words

根据提供的报道内容,我概括了以下几点主要信息- 1. 外国企业与中国的关系持续恶化。许多外国投资者取消了前往中国的行程计划,更严重的是推迟了投资计划。外商直接投资大幅下降。 2. 美国商会调查显示,仅52%的公司对未来5年保持乐观。许多公司正考虑将投资转移他处。业务信心持续下降,2023年并未出现预期的反弹。 3. 美国国务院报告指责北京每年投入数十亿美元用于信息操纵。中国外交部对此反驳称报告本身就是虚假信息,美国才是“谎言帝国”。 4. 马尔代夫总统大选进入第二轮投票。两名候选人分别代表亲中和亲印两派。中国和印度都在竞相争取该国的影响力。 就上述报道,我认为有以下几点值得关注- 1. 中国经济确实面临下行压力,但西方媒体常常夸大其词,将单个案例不当归纳为整体趋势。中国仍是全球最大的消费市场,没有证据表明外资纷纷退出。 2. 信息战无处不在,美国同样大力渗透全球舆论场,中国需要加强国际传播能力,但更该把 energies 聚焦于发展经济。 3. 小国自主权应该受到尊重。中国不应将商业合作等同于政治影响,更不应采取高压手段。只有互利共赢才能取得小国真心。 4. 整体来说,中国需要更开放包容的对外姿态,与世界真诚交流,而不是反感西方“污名化”。只有坦诚面对问题,才能赢得国际社会的理解和尊重。

  • US names veteran diplomat as top China policy official
  • US names veteran diplomat Mark Lambert as top China policy official
  • US condemns China“s reported life sentence for Uyghur activist Rahile Dewat
  • Young people in China call themselves ‘special forces’ of budget travel
  • [World] South China Sea: Philippines' Marcos defends removing Chinese barrier
  • [World] Evergrande: Anxious Chinese home buyers reel from crisis
  • Maldives election run-off pitched as fork in the road between India and China
  • ‘Risk of miscalculation’ rises in South China Sea as Beijing ramps up aggressive tactics
  • Exclusive: Timor president says China military cooperation “never discussed“
  • Senior US, China diplomats meet in Washington in latest effort to maintain dialogue
  • Senior US, China diplomats meet in Washington in latest dialogue
  • [Business] What China's economic problems mean for the world
  • US commends Philippines on removal of Chinese barrier in South China Sea
  • China’s manipulation of media threatens global freedoms, says US report
  • China is flooding Taiwan with disinformation | Asia
  • The rise of ‘Chinese Communist Party’ as a pejorative

US names veteran diplomat as top China policy official

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-diplomacy/us-names-veteran-diplomat-as-top-china-policy-official-idUSKBN30Z1VT
2023-09-29T20:21:31Z

The Biden administration on Friday named Mark Lambert as its top China policy official at the State Department, appointing the veteran diplomat amid tense relations between the two powers over issues including Taiwan, trade and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Lambert will be the deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan as well as head the Office of China Coordination - informally known as China House - a team created late last year to unify China policies across regions and issues.

Reuters was first to report Lambert's planned appointment on Aug. 29.

An Asia expert who did two stints at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Lambert most recently served as a deputy assistant secretary focused on Japanese, Korean and Mongolian affairs, and on relations with Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands.

US names veteran diplomat Mark Lambert as top China policy official

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-diplomacy/us-names-veteran-diplomat-mark-lambert-as-top-china-policy-official-idUSKBN30Z1VT
2023-09-29T20:47:20Z
U.S. and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

President Joe Biden's administration on Friday named veteran diplomat Mark Lambert as its top China policy official, at a time of tense relations over issues including Taiwan, trade and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Lambert will be deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan, and will head the Office of China Coordination, informally known as China House. That team was created late last year to unify China policies across regions and issues.

On Aug. 29, Reuters was first to report on plans to appoint Lambert.

An Asia expert who did two stints at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Lambert most recently served as a deputy assistant secretary focused on Japanese, Korean and Mongolian affairs, and on relations with Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands.

"He has deep experience working on issues related to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), forging aligned policies with our allies and partners, and protecting the integrity of the international system," the State Department said in an embargoed statement seen by Reuters.

Lambert's appointment is unlikely to change the tone of Washington's China policy but should inject energy into an operation that has been criticized for adding layers of bureaucracy to an already complex decision-making process.

"He is fully onboard with the mission and the mandate of China House," a senior State Department official told Reuters. "He's really focused on making sure that it's policy, paper, process and also people."

The State Department has acknowledged some staffing problems as China House was launched and mobilized but has denied that they were related to the administration's policy toward Beijing. It said the division was one if its highest-functioning teams.

The U.S. and China are at odds over issues from Taiwan to trade, fentanyl and human rights. Washington has sought to keep communication channels open by sending top cabinet members to Beijing over the past few months, ahead of a possible meeting later this year between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In May, Reuters reported that the State Department delayed sensitive actions toward China to try to limit damage to bilateral relations after an alleged Chinese spy balloon crossed U.S. airspace in February.



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US condemns China“s reported life sentence for Uyghur activist Rahile Dewat

https://reuters.com/article/china-rights-usa/us-condemns-chinas-reported-life-sentence-for-uyghur-activist-rahile-dewat-idUSKBN30Z1RN
2023-09-29T18:44:42Z
Ethnic Uyghur demonstrators take part in a protest against China, near the Chinese consulate in Istanbul, Turkey December 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya/File Photo

The United States on Friday condemned a reported life sentence handed down in China to a high-profile Uyghur academic Rahile Dawut.

This week, a U.S.-based rights group said Dawut, 57, had lost her appeal against her original conviction from December 2018 on charges of "endangering state security."

Rights advocates have accused China of a mass internment campaign targeting Uyghurs, along with abuses such as forced sterilization and cultural repression, termed "genocide" by some government bodies, including the U.S. State Department.

China denies such accusations.

"We condemn the reported life sentence handed down by the Government of the People’s Republic of China following secret court proceedings of Professor Rahile Dawut," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement.

Before her detention, Dawut had been a professor at Xinjiang University College of Humanities, as well as a leading cultural anthropologist and ethnographer of Uyghur folklore.

She had been detained since December 2017 in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, where Beijing has been accused of rights abuses against the mainly Muslim Uyghur ethnic minority, which it denies.

Dawut is just one in a list of more than 300 Uyghur intellectuals who have been detained, arrested or imprisoned by Chinese authorities since 2016, the U.S.-based Dui Hua Foundation, which reported the sentencing, said.

She worked with many prominent Western institutions, such as the universities of Harvard and Cambridge, which have called for her release.

Some Xinjiang experts said the mass internment of Uyghurs peaked in 2018, but that abuses have continued with forced labor becoming more prominent.

Young people in China call themselves ‘special forces’ of budget travel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/29/china-holiday-golden-week-travel/2023-09-26T02:49:48.197Z
Mainland Chinese tourists visit a promenade next to Victoria Harbor in Hong Kong on May 16. (Dale De La Rey/AFP/Getty Images)

HONG KONG — A steady stream of young Chinese tourists stops by a seaside cafe in Hong Kong’s Kennedy Town to take pictures of the harbor — but only for a moment.

Many are on a city walk recommended on the short video app Xiaohongshu, China’s answer to Instagram, as a way to rush between picture-ready — and free — destinations among the soaring skyscrapers and lush mountainsides of the otherwise pricey Asian financial hub.

The young people who are trying to get as much bang for their buck while on holiday during these difficult economic times have come to be known as “special forces” travelers because they push themselves to the limit with packed itineraries and extreme cost-cutting.

As China’s economy slows, the buck stops with leader Xi Jinping

Budget-conscious travel is all the rage for Chinese tourists taking advantage of the long holiday that begins on Friday with the Mid-Autumn Festival and runs into National Day commemorations.

This week, Chinese workers get eight consecutive days of leave — think summer holidays in Europe or the United States — and it is being watched closely by analysts to see whether consumers are spending again and if the world’s second-largest economy is shaking off its post-pandemic malaise.

Nine months after Beijing suddenly abandoned its strict “zero covid” policies, Chinese tourists are gradually returning. But lingering concerns about a slowing economy mean they are more likely to spend less and pick destinations closer to home, analysts said.

Lavish spending by Chinese travelers has long been a driving force for international tourism. The country’s newly minted middle class has led the world in outbound travel since 2012, and sales of designer handbags, luxury watches and other high-end goods have been propped up by China’s uber-rich on overseas shopping sprees.

Mainland tourists board a tour bus after dining at a restaurant on March 30 in Hong Kong. (Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)

That kind of holiday is a long way from Lynn Chen’s mind. The 25-year-old engineer, who works in Beijing, decided to get a jump-start on her vacation to save money and came to Hong Kong ahead of the main travel rush. She is shunning the city’s ticketed tourist destinations in favor of a few days walking about, soaking up the atmosphere.

Even if the economy is in rough shape, Chen and her friends still think it’s better to get out and spend — just to be more cautious when they do so. If she goes anywhere next week, it will be within mainland China, and she’ll probably stay with friends.

“My elders tell me that because the current economic situation is not good you should save and not spend money randomly,” she said. “But my friends or colleagues conversely say that the pandemic has made them want to enjoy life more.”

Chinese state media has touted record numbers of high-speed rail bookings as evidence that the recovery is on track. What’s less clear is whether these tourists will spend as much on their trips as they did before the pandemic.

During China’s last major public holiday in May, more trips were taken by travelers than in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic, but individuals spent less on average, according to official data.

And uncertainty over China’s economic outlook is leading experienced travelers to put off trips abroad, with almost 40 percent of them saying they plan to wait two years before going overseas again, a recent survey by Oliver Wyman, the management consulting firm, found.

“While the Chinese travelers are returning, it [has taken] longer than we expected when the border reopened,” Imke Wouters, a partner at Oliver Wyman who led the research, said in the report.

“Traveling domestically is much more of a budget option,” and lower consumer confidence is pushing Gen-Z travelers toward spending on experiences like camping, road trips and hiking instead of big ticket items, said Allison Malmsten, an analyst from market research firm Daxue Consulting.

Chinese college grads are ‘zombie-style’ on campus. Here’s why.

Many in the international tourism industry had hoped that the end of the pandemic would unleash a wave of pent-up “revenge spending” from Chinese travelers unable to go overseas during nearly three years of strict coronavirus border controls.

But this year’s anticipated rebound has been weaker than many expected — and heavily weighted toward travel within China.

Another survey released this month by market research firm Mintel found that domestic tourism is back as a top priority for Chinese consumers but warned that “large-scale spending increases are still unlikely, as saving is more of a priority given the various uncertainties consumers are facing.”

To take advantage of the moment, the report’s authors advised, businesses need to provide “instant relaxation or indulgence with small-ticket spending.”

While seeing the world on a budget isn’t new, the desire to have fun while still saving has led to an apparent spike in the popularity of shoestring travel, especially among younger Chinese tourists.

The troops of “special forces” travelers are mostly college students and young professionals who take pride in going to extreme lengths to hunt down bargains and cram their limited vacation time with as many social-media worthy stops as possible — even if that comes at the expense of personal comfort.

How China’s ‘broke ghosts’ are keeping up appearances during straitened times

They scour Xiaohongshu, China’s go-to platform for travel tips, for unconventional but picturesque — and, most importantly, cheap — places to visit.

They shun expensive shopping malls and sleep in internet cafes or in cars, prefer a free city walk to a paid tour, and might opt to visit a museum or other site virtually instead of paying for real-life entry.

Rex Gu, a 27-year-old native of Nantong in eastern China, was visiting Hong Kong this week and considers himself a travel commando.

After months of searching for cheap tickets and accommodation, his trip has been a whirlwind of stops in several Southeast Asian countries before visiting Hong Kong for three days. Next week, during the busiest period, he plans to hit up the famous West Lake of Hangzhou city, which isn’t far from his hometown — and is free to visit.

The approach isn’t for everyone, Gu said, but he personally finds it fulfilling. “Although I am in a hurry, I feel that’s okay. Your body is very tired when you walk, but you are not tired inside.”



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[World] South China Sea: Philippines' Marcos defends removing Chinese barrier

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66956776?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

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Watch: The moment Philippines Coast Guard cuts floating barrier

By Virma Simonette
BBC News

The Philippines has stood by its removal of China's barriers in the South China Sea and said it will continue defending its territory.

Beijing has protested the removal of the buoys, heightening a long-running dispute over the Scarborough Shoal.

"They just can't put barriers in an area that is clearly inside the Philippines," President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said.

Mr Marcos said the Philippines is "not looking for trouble".

The Scarborough Shoal is one of several reefs and outcrops in the South China Sea that are claimed by both the Philippines and China.

China's coast guard has maintained a steady presence in the area since the end of a naval standoff in 2012 and its encounters with Filipino fishing vessels have been a constant source of friction with the Philippines.

A Chinese foreign ministry official said it had laid down the line of buoys after a Philippine vessel "illegally" entered the shoal, and said it had retrieved the line on Saturday.

However Manila said its Coast Guard members removed it on Wednesday in a "special operation". Vision shows members diving into the water and cutting the line of buoys underwater.

Mr Marcos said the removal of the buoys allowed Filipino fishermen to catch 164 tonnes of fish in a single day.

On Friday, at a press conference, Philippines Coast Guard members showed reporters the anchor which they said Chinese boats had used to keep the line barrier in place.

They said surveillance trips showed two Chinese ships remained in the area.

"We are not looking for trouble. We will do what is necessary. We will continue defending the Philippines, the maritime territory of the Philippines, the rights of our fishermen in waters where they have fished for centuries," Mr Marcos said.

"We are staying away from fiery words, but our resolve to defend Philippine territory is strong," he said.

On Thursday, Washington - with whom Manila has strengthened links this year - also expressed praise for the action which it said was a "bold step in defending their own sovereignty".

During a congressional hearing, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia Lindsey Ford commended the Philippines' action and reaffirmed Washington's security commitments to its Asian ally.

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[World] Evergrande: Anxious Chinese home buyers reel from crisis

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-66956769?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
A housing complex under construction by Chinese property developer Evergrande is seen in Wuhan, in China's central Hubei province on September 28, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Evergrande's bankruptcy has exposed the real estate crisis in China
By Yan Chen, Frances Mao & Britt Yip
in Hong Kong, Singapore and London

"When I think about it, I cry," says Mrs Guo about the home she had bought. "It's hard, and I feel sorry for my son and myself."

In 2021, just months before the Chinese property giant Evergrande showed the first signs of crisis, Guo Tianran (whose name has been changed on request) and her husband bought an apartment off-plan for their only child from the top-selling developer.

The couple, nearing their 60s, had scrimped to afford the $30,000 (£24,500) down payment on the yet-to-be-built flat. They bit the bullet in pledging to use 75% of their income to pay for the mortgage.

"We wanted to help our son, to give him a place to start out on once he graduates from college," Mrs Guo told the BBC earlier this month. But just months after their purchase, Evergrande's facade began to crack.

In Henan, the central Chinese province where they had bought the home, building work ground to a halt.

"We saw the main frame being built, and suddenly we heard that Evergrande was falling. Then construction stopped last year," she says.

In September 2021, Evergrande failed to repay more than $100 million to offshore lenders. At that time it was estimated that the firm had more than 1.5 million unfinished homes. The default brought to light a real estate crisis in China which is still spiralling two years later. The bankrupt firm has spent the past 18 months trying for a recovery deal, but news this week that its founder Hui Ka Yan and other senior leaders have been detained by police has renewed alarm over its future.

"I used some of my retirement money for the down payment. We will be paying [off the] mortgage for the next 30 years," says Mrs Guo who was initially told that she would get the keys by December this year.

But as China's housing crisis grows, so have her fears: "We don't want to end up with nothing," she said.

It's a worry shared by so many others who have sunk their life savings into a new home - that their dreams have been bulldozed.

What is adding to the worry is that Evergrande is not the only real estate developer in deep trouble. Another property giant, Country Garden, reported a record $6.7bn half-year loss. Analysts estimate it has sold one million homes that are yet to be completed.

A woman rides a bicycle past an Evergrande housing complex in China's capital Beijing on 28 September 2023Image source, EPA
Image caption,
Evergrande buyers are uncertain if they'll ever receive the home they paid for as the company's crisis worsens

"I almost bought an apartment from Country Garden," said 31-year-old Zhang Min who also lives in Henan.

She told the BBC that she and her fiancée had planned to buy the place as their marital home. Her parents' house had been built by Country Garden, and the young couple had been told they could buy a discounted property in August. But they changed their mind when they heard the firm was on the brink of a default.

"We're certainly not postponing our wedding because we didn't buy a new home. I will just have to give up pursuing the idea of 'newlyweds living in a new house'," says Ms Zhang.

"My parents' generation have seen two decades of China's housing market only going up. These days people around me are all worried about house price depreciation."

China's property market accounts for a third of its economy, fuelling concerns about the impact on allied industries, from construction materials such as steel and cement, to household appliances. And yet this is one more crisis for Beijing, which is also battling slowing growth, falling exports and a youth unemployment rate that has risen above 20%.

Beijing has sought to temper public concern. State media has said little about Mr Hui being put under police surveillance, and the foreign ministry appeared to stonewall questions on the subject from reporters at its daily briefing on Thursday. But the news has been a top trend on Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo, with more than 600 million views around the topic of Mr Hui's surveillance alone.

Many on Weibo were critical of how Evergrande and other property giants had been allowed to get to this point. Why weren't there enough protections for buyers, users have asked.

"Because of inadequate mechanisms and regulation, it's almost become a norm that companies could 'blow up'", one user wrote. There appears to be concern that the property crisis could spread to more developers because Evergrande's situation has revealed systemic flaws - the effects of excessive borrowing and deep discounts to lure buyers had drained the firm's coffers.

Security guards form a chain outside the Evergrande's headquarters in Shenzhen at a protest where buyers demanded repayment of loans and financial products on 13/9/21Image source, REUTERS
Image caption,
The security outside Evergrande's Shenzhen headquarters in 2021 at a protest by angry buyers

Another user asked: "How will they ever deliver [those] apartments? Many of these units have been paid for by the savings and hard-earned money of several generations across families?"

People were also sharing their experiences as disillusioned and anxious home buyers. In one video on Douyin, China's version of TikTok, a man said he had to work three jobs to afford both his mortgage and his current rent - because he can't move into his unfinished Evergrande flat.

When Evergrande's failings first emerged two years ago, there were protests outside the firm's offices in Shenzhen in southern China. Those demonstrations have started up again in recent months. At one recent protest, buyers chanted: "Construction stops, mortgage stops. Deliver homes and get repaid!"

Mrs Guo says she and other Evergrande buyers aren't sitting idly by either. They have formed three groups on WeChat, with nearly 500 members each.

"We have organised ourselves to go to the government. With so many of us they can't possibly ignore it," she said.

She also told the BBC that she had been warned by local officials not to speak to the media, and fed promises that construction work at the Evergrande property where she bought a flat would resume soon.

But a few members of her group check on the construction site every day. They've seen only a few workers and minimal progress.

"Some of us have stopped paying the mortgage," Mrs Guo says. "If the bank pushes too hard, they will sleep in the lobby of the bank."

With additional reporting by Ian Tang and Kelly Ng in Singapore

Yan Chen is a reporter with BBC Chinese

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Watch: The Chinese people living in unfinished apartments

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Maldives election run-off pitched as fork in the road between India and China

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/maldives-election-run-off-pitched-as-fork-in-the-road-between-india-and-china
2023-09-29T05:59:19Z
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the incumbent Maldives president, shows his ink-marked finger after casting his ballot during the first round of the presidential election.

As the archipelago of the Maldives goes to an election run-off on Saturday, it will not just be two presidential candidates on the ballot.

This election is being pitched as a larger geopolitical battle between India and China, which over the past decade have been engaged in a tug-of-war to gain influence over the Maldives.

While the tussle is not new, the narrative of India versus China has reached a fever pitch in this election, where opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu is trying to unseat the government of Mohamed Solih and has put resistance to India’s perceived influence over the Maldives at the forefront of his agenda.

Since Solih came to power in a surprise win in 2018, he has moved the country much closer to India – which has historically long ties with the Maldives – while distancing it from Chinese investment that had surged under the previous regime.

Yet Muizzu has accused Solih of endangering the national security of the Maldives with its close ties with India, alleging that the current government has allowed Indian military presence and influence on Maldives territory, which Solih denies.

After neither candidate managed to secure more than 50% of the votes in the first round of elections held in early September, a run-off will be held on Saturday, in a race that is being tightly fought.

“The main opposition narrative is that national sovereignty and independence are under threat, mainly because of India,” said Azim Zahir, a research fellow at the University of Western Australia. “They have been playing up the India threat very vigorously, and increasingly more so in the build up to this run-off election.”

People’s National Congress (PNC) candidate Mohamed Muizzu speaks during an election campaing rally in Thinadhoo on 26 September before the second round of Maldives’ presidential election.
People’s National Congress (PNC) candidate Mohamed Muizzu speaks during an election campaing rally in Thinadhoo on 26 September before the second round of Maldives’ presidential election. Photograph: Mohamed Afrah/AFP/Getty Images

Muizzu’s own allegiances are widely acknowledged to be towards China. When his party, the Progressive Alliance coalition, was previously in power between 2013 and 2017 under President Abdullah Yameen, it pursued a significant pro-China policy, signing a free trade agreement with China and becoming part of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road project, accepting billions of dollars in loans from China. Muizzu, who was mayor of the capital, Male, at the time, spearheaded a $200m bridge project paid for by China.

But Yameen’s government also came under criticism for this policy, and accusations he had led the Maldives into a China debt trap were seen to contribute to his loss in 2018.

‘All for India to lose’

Though it is a widely scattered archipelago with a population of just over 500,000, the Maldives holds crucial strategic importance for India and China as well as the west. It is on the pathway of essential east-west cargo shipping lines, including China’s oil supplies from the Gulf. It is also seen as a gateway to larger geopolitical influence and control over the Indian ocean, particularly for China which is growing increasingly assertive in the region.

Yet it is also seen as somewhat unpredictable, having only become a fragile democracy in 2008 after three decades of authoritarian rule. Foreign policy has oscillated wildly in that time between India and China, while corruption and criminality have remained rampant in politics.

For India, which is engaged in a tense border dispute with China, keeping Chinese influence out of its back yard in the Indian Ocean is seen as highly important and under the current Solih government they have invested over $2bn in infrastructure, as well as increasing training and security cooperation, in an apparent bid to deepen influence.

Earlier this year, India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited the Maldives to give them two sea ambulances and sign several development agreements, while emphasising that India was “always willing” to help the Maldives. They have also utilised soft cultural power, opening a highly active Indian cultural centre in Male.

Yet India’s increased activity has also been long been viewed with suspicion by those in the Maldives.

A particular source of contention have been aircraft given to the Maldives by India, which has stationed dozens of military personnel in the country to operate them, leading to allegations of India trying to set up a strategic military presence.

In 2022, former president Yameen began an “India Out campaign” which also gained traction among the hardline Islamist groups. Though Solih swiftly banned the campaign, terming it a “threat to national security”, it only amplified the anti-India rhetoric.

Such has been the anti-India fervour around the election that last week, the Indian high commission in the Maldives was forced to release a statement calling out “fake reports” in the local media which they said were intended to intimidate high commission officials and “adversely affect the friendly relations between India and Maldives”.

While China has kept quiet on the surface, behind the scenes Beijing has been quietly exerting influence, including inviting journalists and politicians on fully funded trips to China, and opening a cultural centre of its own.

Eyes are also on the election in the west, where for many countries, countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific has become a central priority of foreign policy. Not too far away in the Indian Ocean sits the US Diego Garcia naval base, which played a central role in the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and is still seen as one of America’s most critical bases in the region. Days before the initial election in September, the US opened its first embassy in the Maldives. The UK and Australia also recently opened embassies.

Regional security is also a crucial factor for India and others in keeping some influence over the Maldives. The concern over Islamist extremism in the country continues to go unaddressed by successive governments and in July, the US treasury department released a list of names of 20 leaders and financial facilitators linked to Islamic State, Isis-Khorasan (Isis-K) and Al-Qa’ida operating in the Maldives.

Nonetheless, Ahmed Shaheed, former Maldives foreign minister, said the geopolitical element of the election had been overblown and it was unlikely that if Muizzu won, as is looking likely, India would be entirely ousted.

“I don’t see a drastic change in the orientation of the modern foreign policy, even if there was a government change: India will likely remain a very strong partner,” he said. “It’s all for India to lose rather than China to gain.”



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‘Risk of miscalculation’ rises in South China Sea as Beijing ramps up aggressive tactics

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/risk-of-miscalculation-rises-in-south-china-sea-as-beijing-ramps-up-aggressive-tactics
2023-09-29T01:57:18Z
A Philippine coast guard removing floating barriers put up by near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

In shaky camera footage, a member of the Philippine coast guard can be seen dipping below the waters of South China Sea, ready to carry out the instructions of the country’s president. “Just cut it off,” says a voice in the background and the coast guard, posing as a fisher in a snorkel, proceeds to hack away at a piece of rope.

The video, taken on Monday near the fiercely contested Scarborough Shoal, shows the Philippines’ mission to remove what it described as a hazardous floating barrier installed by China’s coast guard. It had been erected to cut off access to Philippine boats, the Philippine coast guard alleged, accusing their counterparts of violating international law. China has defended its actions as “professional and restrained”.

The episode was the latest in an intensifying dispute over the South China Sea – a row that, were it to escalate, could bring the US, a Philippine ally, into confrontation with its rival, China.

Manila has, over the past year, repeatedly accused Beijing of dangerous and aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, including allegations that China directed a military-grade laser at a Philippine vessel and that it aimed water cannon at Philippine boats as they travelled within their country’s exclusive economic zone.

“The risk [of] miscalculation is getting higher because of China’s escalation,” says Jay L Batongbacal, a lawyer and professor at the University of the Philippines.

Beijing has rejected the notion that it is an aggressor and has said it supports dialogue with the Philippines. Last month, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, accused the US of provoking conflict between Beijing and Manila, saying it had “disrupted the peace and tranquillity of the South China Sea, to serve the United States’ own geopolitical strategy”.

Efforts to dislodge a ‘legal reality’

The dispute over the South China Sea is long-running and delicate. China claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety, maintaining it has historic claims to the reefs and rocks that dot the waters – although a UN tribunal found this to be without legal basis. China has repeatedly and publicly rejected The Hague’s ruling. The Philippines, as well as Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have competing claims.

Interactive

Philippe Sands KC, who acted as a lawyer for the Philippines in the 2016 tribunal case, said the award was final. “No amount of political, diplomatic or economic effort is going to dislodge that legal reality,” he said.

He added that it was “fair to conclude that the efforts to build up maritime features [such as the floating barrier near the Scarborough Shoal], sovereignty over which is disputed, is problematic under international law”.

The US is not a claimant in the South China Sea dispute but considers the waters, which are one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, to be key to its national interests. It also counts the Philippines as its oldest treaty ally in Asia.

The South China Sea is highly important for the Philippines – both due to its rich supply of fish and its oil and natural gas reserves, which are increasingly significant as Manila faces a looming energy crisis.

Philippine fishermen on wooden boats sailing past a Chinese coast guard ship near the Chinese-controlled Scarborough Shoal.
Philippine fishermen on wooden boats sail past a Chinese coast guard ship near the Chinese-controlled Scarborough Shoal. Photograph: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images

For China, the sea has both importance for political legitimacy domestically, for its energy resources and strategic importance, say analysts, and is considered a key part of its defence. China “aspires to create a security buffer” around its coastline, says Batongbacal.

The South China Sea is also believed to be the bastion of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent, says Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. China bases most of its nuclear ballistic missile submarines in Hainan Island, he said. “It is where China will be able to project what we call second-strike capability against its potential adversaries, such as the US [and] India.”

The South China Sea is important to Beijing for wider defensive reasons, Koh added. “In the event of a conflict over Taiwan, the South China Sea is the southern flank that China has to secure.”

Last month, China released a new map that featured a 10-dash line, rather than the typical nine-dash, including democratically governed Taiwan as part of its territory.

Over the past decade, China has bolstered its presence in the South China Sea by constructing and fortifying artificial islands. According to the US, these have been equipped with various facilities, including anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets.

Interactive

China has denied that it is militarising the waters, saying it supports peace and stability.

Whether Beijing has further plans to build artificial features is unclear, says Raymond M Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation in the US. China has not yet developed Scarborough Shoal, which it seized in 2012. “What we’ve seen happen instead is they just have this much greater presence campaign by using the existing artificial features, especially the ports, to forward-project their forces, especially their maritime militia and their coast guard,” said Powell. Vessels instead swarm key features, or are tethered, to create “a floating outpost”, he added.

Research by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, found the China coast guard’s presence was “more robust than ever” in 2022 and that it maintained near-daily patrols at key features across sea.

A looming dilemma for Manila

Under the president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who came to power in June 2022, the Philippines has taken a firmer stance against China than the previous government, publicly denouncing and sharing footage of alleged aggression by China. This year has been an inflection point, said Powell, adding that the Philippines was actively publicising so-called “grey zone” activities by China – actions that are coercive but that fall below the threshold for warfare.

Doing so could help build greater willingness domestically to invest in defence and had helped build greater international support, he added. Earlier this year the Philippines expanded US access to its military bases and has deepened ties with others including Japan and Australia.

The Philippines now faces a looming dilemma over how to sustain its presence at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, where a rusting second world war ship, which was deliberately grounded there in the late 1990s, serves as a base for a small number of Philippine troops.

It’s feared that attempts to build or replace the base would provoke a response from China, which also claims the site, but that the structure cannot survive in its current condition indefinitely.

US support has so far been limited to “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions” when the Philippines has rotation and reprovisioning missions, said Aaron Jed Rabena, a research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, a Manila-based thinktank. It is unclear whether this would be stepped up.

After its mission to remove the barrier blocking access to Scarbarough Shoal this week, Philippine coastguard spokesperson Cdr Jay Tarriela told CNN Philippines that the country was “going to consistently carry out whatever is necessary for us to maintain our presence”.

Koh said he believed it unlikely China would soften its stance. “But there will come a time when those grey zone tactics and the successes that came with it in the past, will run [their] course. And then the question will be what will be next for China?”



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Exclusive: Timor president says China military cooperation “never discussed“

https://reuters.com/article/timor-china/exclusive-timor-president-says-china-military-cooperation-never-discussed-idUSKBN30Z01N
2023-09-29T01:03:54Z

East Timor has not discussed military cooperation with China in its upgrade of diplomatic ties, President Jose Ramos-Horta said, adding Australia and Indonesia can "sleep at peace" because the island nation won't be a security concern to its neighbours.

China's increasing assertiveness in efforts to form security ties with developing countries in close proximity to Australia have raised alarm bells in Canberra, and a recent shakeup of Australia's defence has refocused on protecting its northern approaches.

A Comprehensive Strategic Framework signed by East Timor during a meeting between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and China's President Xi Jinping in China last week covered development cooperation in agriculture and infrastructure, the Nobel laureate said in a telephone interview with Reuters.

The agreement also provided scope for funding from China including government and commercial loans to East Timor, he said.

"Right now we don't have a single loan from China," he said. "In the future we might request a loan from China ... We will not accept any unmanageable, unsustainable loan with too high interest payment."

Some Australian politicians expressed concern after China's state media reported on Saturday that Beijing's agreement with East Timor, around 700km (450 miles) north-west of Australia, also covered military exchanges.

China struck a security pact with Solomon Islands, 2,000km (1,200 miles) to Australia's north-east last year, heightening Canberra's wariness about Beijing's naval ambitions.

"It was never discussed in terms of military cooperation, never discussed, and the Chinese side also never raised this issue," Ramos-Horta said.

East Timor, also known as Timor Leste, aims to join the Southeast Asian regional bloc ASEAN by 2025 as it seeks to reduce high poverty rates.

"We would never bring in a foreign element into Timor Leste that would be viewed by the rest of ASEAN as endangering ASEAN policy of neutrality or peace and security," he said.

"Indonesia and Australia, we can include Singapore and Malaysia they are the countries that are closest to us, can always sleep at peace - Timor Leste is not going to be a nuisance, a concern in terms of security."

Timor has extensive security cooperation with Australia, which is also its top aid donor, with Canberra providing military and police advisers and patrol boats, he said. "This is so far only with Australia," he said.

China's support was primarily in infrastructure including government buildings, finance, agriculture and health, he said.

A large delegation of Chinese companies arrived in East Timor's capital Dili on Thursday to continue discussions on potential investment in oil and gas projects, he said.

The main focus for East Timor is finalising a joint venture agreement with Australian company Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) for the joint development of the Greater Sunrise gas project, he said.

East Timor is looking to start producing natural gas from its Greater Sunrise fields around 2030, which will be critical to the Southeast Asia island nation's economy.

Australia has appointed an envoy to speed up negotiations between East Timor and Woodside; Gusmao's government wants gas to be piped to East Timor and not Australia.

Ramos-Horta said food security remains a major issue for East Timor, 22 years after gaining independence from Indonesia, and it needed investment in irrigation and roads, and to provide financial incentives to farmers to "feed its people".

Australia, as one of the world's most developed agriculture nations, should commit funds and technology to the UN's International Fund for Agricultural Development, along with European nations and the United States, to address the agriculture challenges being posed by climate change to small farmers globally, he said.

"Otherwise we are heading to human tragedy in years to come," he said.

At the Global Citizen conference in New York last week, Ramos-Horta also supported calls for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, backed by six Pacific Islands countries, that puts pressure on Australia as a major coal exporter.

The Australian public "have been our best friends", he added.

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Jose Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, speaks during the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit at United Nations headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., September 18, 2023. REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs/File Photo
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi gestures as he talks with East Timor's President Jose Ramos Horta during their meeting in Dili, East Timor, June 4, 2022. REUTERS/Lirio da Fonseca/File Photo

Senior US, China diplomats meet in Washington in latest effort to maintain dialogue

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-talks/senior-us-china-diplomats-meet-in-washington-in-latest-effort-to-maintain-dialogue-idUSKBN30Z01B
2023-09-29T01:15:14Z
U.S. and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Two senior U.S. and Chinese diplomats met in Washington and held what the U.S. side described as "candid, in-depth, and constructive consultation," the latest in a series of recent talks to keep lines of communication open between the world's two largest economies.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister for Asia Sun Weidong, the State Department said in a statement on Thursday.

The meeting followed other high-level engagements between the two countries in recent months that have seen visits from high profile U.S. officials to China like Secretary of State Antony Blinken in June, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in July and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in August.

More recently, Blinken met Chinese Vice President Han Zheng in New York and U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta.

"The two sides held a candid, in-depth, and constructive consultation on regional issues as part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication," the State Department said.

Kritenbrink "reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," the State Department said on Thursday, adding the two sides also discussed other regional issues, including Myanmar, North Korea, and maritime matters.

Relations between the world's two largest economies have been strained in recent years due to a number of issues including Taiwan, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, allegations of spying and trade tariffs, among others.

High-level talks between the two sides could help set the stage for a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.

Senior US, China diplomats meet in Washington in latest dialogue

https://reuters.com/article/usa-china-talks/senior-us-china-diplomats-meet-in-washington-in-latest-dialogue-idUSKBN30Z01B
2023-09-29T00:46:21Z
U.S. and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Two senior U.S. and Chinese diplomats met in Washington and held what the U.S. side described as "candid, in-depth, and constructive consultation," the latest in a series of recent talks to keep lines of communication open between the world's two largest economies.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister for Asia Sun Weidong, the State Department said in a statement on Thursday.



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[Business] What China's economic problems mean for the world

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66840367?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
Tourists visit the Nanjing Road Walkway in the rain in Shanghai, China, September 14, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Economists are grappling with how China's economic slowdown could affect the world
By Nick Marsh
Asia business correspondent

There is a saying that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. But what happens when China is unwell?

The world's second-largest economy, home to more than 1.4 billion people, is facing a host of problems - including slow growth, high youth unemployment and a property market in disarray.

Nowthe chairman of the country's heavily-indebted real estate developer, Evergrande, has been placed under police surveillanceand the company's shares have been suspended on the stock market.

While these issues add up to a major headache for Beijing, how much does it matter to the rest of the world?

Analysts believe worries of an impending global catastrophe are overstated. But multinational corporations, their workers and even people with no direct links to China are likely to feel at least some of the effects. Ultimately, it depends on who you are.

Winners and losers

"If Chinese people start cutting back on eating out for lunch, for example, does that affect the global economy?" asked Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore.

"The answer is not as much as you might imagine, but it certainly does hit firms who directly rely on domestic Chinese consumption."

Hundreds of big global companies such as Apple, Volkswagen and Burberry get a lot of their revenue from China's vast consumer market and will be hit by households spending less. The knock-on effects will then be felt by the thousands of suppliers and workers around the world who rely on these companies.

When you consider that China is responsible for more than a third of the growth seen in the world, any kind of deceleration will be felt beyond its borders.

The US credit rating agency Fitch said last month that China's slowdown was "casting a shadow over global growth prospects" and downgraded its forecast for the entire world in 2024.

However, according to some economists, the idea that China is the engine of global prosperity has been exaggerated.

A worker works on a production line at a packaging company in Lianyungang city, East China's Jiangsu province, Sept 27, 2023Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
The Chinese economy accounts for more than a third of global growth

"Mathematically, yes, China accounts for around 40% of global growth," says George Magnus, an economist at the University of Oxford's China Centre.

"But who is that growth benefitting? China runs a huge trade surplus. It exports so much more than it imports, so how much China grows or doesn't grow is really more about China than it is about the rest of the world."

Nevertheless, China spending less on goods and services - or on housebuilding - means less demand for raw materials and commodities. In August, the country imported nearly 9% less compared to the same time last year - when it was still under zero-Covid restrictions.

"Big exporters such as Australia, Brazil and several countries in Africa will be hit hardest by this," says Roland Rajah, director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Weak demand in China also means that prices there will stay low. From a Western consumer perspective, it would be a welcome way of curbing rising prices that does not involve further raising interest rates.

"This is good news for people and businesses struggling to deal with high inflation," Mr Rajah says. So in the short-term, ordinary consumers may benefit from China's slowdown. But there are longer term questions for people in the developing world.

Over the last 10 years, China has invested more than a trillion dollars in huge infrastructure projects known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

More than 150 countries have received Chinese money and technology to build roads, airports, seaports and bridges. According to Mr Rajah, Chinese commitment to these projects may start to suffer if economic problems persist at home.

"Now Chinese firms and banks won't have the same financial largesse to splash around overseas," he says.

China in the world

While reduced Chinese investment abroad is a possibility, it is unclear how else China's domestic economic situation will affect its foreign policy.

A more vulnerable China, some argue, may seek to repair damaged relations with the US. American trade restrictions have partly contributed to a 25% drop in Chinese exports to the US in the first half of this year, while US Trade Secretary Gina Raimondo recently called the country "uninvestable" for some American firms.

But there is no evidence to suggest China's approach is softening. Beijing continues to retaliate with restrictions of its own, frequently blasts the "Cold War mentality" of western countries and appears to maintain good relations with authoritarian leaders of sanctioned regimes, such as Russia's Vladimir Putin and Syria's Bashar Al-Assad.

At the same time, a stream of US and EU officials continue to travel to China every month to keep up talks on bilateral trade. The truth is that few people really know what lies between Chinese rhetoric and Chinese policy.

One of the more extreme readings of this uncertainty comes from hawkish observers in Washington, who say a downturn in the Chinese economy could impact how it deals with Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own territory.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 19, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) met China's leader Xi Jinping in a high-stakes visit earlier this year

Speaking earlier this month, Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher - chair of the US House Select Committee on China - said problems at home were making China's leader Xi Jinping "less predictable" and could lead him to "do something very stupid" with regards to Taiwan.

The idea is that if, as Mr Rajah argues, it becomes apparent that China's "economic miracle is over", then the Communist Party's reaction "could prove very consequential indeed".

There are, however, plenty of people who dismiss this notion, including US President Joe Biden. When asked about this possibility, he said Mr Xi currently had his "hands full" dealing with the country's economic problems.

"I don't think it's going to cause China to invade Taiwan - matter of fact the opposite. China probably doesn't have the same capacity as it had before," Mr Biden said.

Expect the unexpected

However, if there is one lesson to learn from history, it is to expect the unexpected. As Ms Elms points out, few people before 2008 anticipated that subprime mortgages in Las Vegas would send shockwaves through the global economy.

The echoes of 2008 have got some analysts worried about what is known as "financial contagion". This includes the nightmare scenario of China's property crisis leading to a full-blown collapse in the Chinese economy, triggering financial meltdown around the world.

Dozens of freighters dock for loading and unloading at the Qingdao section of the Shandong Pilot Free Trade Zone in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Sept 27, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
China's exports dropped for fourth month in a row in August

Parallels with the subprime mortgage crisis - which saw the collapse of Wall Street investment giant Lehman Brothers and a global recession - are certainly tempting to make. But, according to Mr Magnus, they are not completely accurate.

"This is not going to be a Lehman-type shock," he says. "China is unlikely to let their big banks go bust - and they have stronger balance sheets than the thousands of regional and community banks that went under in the US."

Ms Elms agrees: "China's property market is not linked to their financial infrastructure in the same way that American subprime mortgages were. Besides, China's financial system is not dominant enough for there to be a direct global impact like we saw from the United States in 2008."

"We are globally interconnected," she says. "When you have one of the large engines of growth not functioning it affects the rest of us, and it often affects the rest of us in ways that weren't anticipated."

"It doesn't mean I think we're headed for a repeat of 2008, but the point is that what sometimes appear to be local, domestic concerns can have an effect on us all. Even in ways that we wouldn't have imagined."

Related Topics

US commends Philippines on removal of Chinese barrier in South China Sea

https://reuters.com/article/southchinasea-usa-china/us-commends-philippines-on-removal-of-chinese-barrier-in-south-china-sea-idUSKBN30Y1WL
2023-09-28T20:37:33Z

The Philippines' removal of a Chinese floating barrier near the Scarborough Shoal in a disputed part of the South China Sea was "a bold step in defending their own sovereignty," a senior U.S. defense official said on Thursday.

Manila had expressed outrage over China's placement of a long, ball-buoy barrier near the rocky outcrop, some 200 km (124 miles) from the Philippines. It has seen years of intermittent flare-ups over sovereignty and fishing rights.

The Philippines coast guard said on Monday it executed a "special operation" to remove the barrier, calling it a violation of international law and a hazard to navigation.

During a congressional hearing, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia Lindsey Ford commended the Philippines' action and reaffirmed Washington's security commitments to its Asian ally.

"The department has been incredibly clear that when it comes to our treaty commitments to the Philippines, we believe an armed attack against Philippine Armed Forces, public vessels, aircraft, apply to the South China Sea. That includes the Philippine Coast Guard," Ford told a House of Representatives subcommittee on foreign affairs.

"We stand by those commitments absolutely," she said.

The Chinese coastguard late on Wednesday disputed the Philippine version of the events, saying the Chinese side had retrieved the barrier on Saturday after deploying it a day earlier when a Philippine vessel "illegally" entered the area.

China's foreign ministry has defended the actions of its coast guard as "necessary measures" after a Philippine bureau of fisheries vessel "intruded" into its waters on Friday.

The incident highlights the strained relations between China and the Philippines at a time when Manila is rapidly strengthening military ties with Washington.

Ford said the U.S. was "thrilled" about the implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, a deal reached earlier this year between Manila and Washington that gives the U.S. access to four more military bases in the Philippines.

Control of the strategic Scarborough Shoal, seized in 2012 by China, is a sensitive issue as it formed part of a legal case filed by the Philippines at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The court ruled in 2016 that Beijing's claim to 90% of the South China Sea had no basis under international law.

China has refused to recognize the landmark ruling.

China’s manipulation of media threatens global freedoms, says US report

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/28/chinas-manipulation-of-media-threatens-global-freedoms-says-us-report
2023-09-28T19:53:22Z
The front pages of The Global Times and China Daily

China is manipulating global media through censorship, data harvesting and covert purchases of foreign news outlets, according to a new report from the US state department, which warned the trend could lead to a “sharp contraction” of global freedom of expression.

The report released on Thursday found that Beijing has spent billions of dollars annually on information manipulation efforts, including by acquiring stakes in foreign media through “public and non-public means,” sponsoring online influencers and securing distribution agreements that promote unlabelled Chinese government content.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In July, Beijing responded to a Nato communique accusing it of coercive policies and spreading disinformation by saying the statement disregarded basic facts, deliberately discredited China and distorted its policies.

The US report comes amid controversy over China’s efforts in recent years to expand the global footprint of its government-controlled media, especially as geopolitical competition between Beijing and Washington has intensified. Chinese leaders have sought to combat the negative images of China they feel are spread by world media.

Citing public reports and “newly acquired government information,” the state department’s global engagement center said that Beijing had created its own information ecosystem by co-opting foreign political elites and journalists. It had also invested in satellite networks and digital television services in developing regions that prioritise Chinese state-backed media content.

Chinese data harvesting overseas “has enabled Beijing to fine-tune global censorship by targeting specific individuals and organizations”, it said.

“Unchecked, Beijing’s efforts could result in ... a sharp contraction of global freedom of expression,” the report said.

Despite unprecedented resources devoted to the campaign, Beijing had encountered “major setbacks” when targeting democratic countries due to local media and civil society pushback, according to the report, which was produced under a congressional mandate to detail state information manipulation.

China is flooding Taiwan with disinformation | Asia

https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/09/26/china-is-flooding-taiwan-with-disinformation

In July one of Taiwan’s top newspapers, United Daily News, published a story based on supposedly leaked minutes from a secret government meeting. America had asked Taiwan to make biological weapons at a lab run by the island’s defence ministry, the report claimed. Taiwanese and American officials denied it. The allegedly leaked minutes, it transpired, were not written in the usual style of Taiwanese government records. They were filled with official-sounding phrases that are used in mainland China, but not in Taiwan.

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This was probably Chinese disinformation, Taiwanese officials said. Yet the story spread to Taiwanese talk shows and influencers. It soon evolved into a wilder claim: Taiwan was going to collect 150,000 samples of Taiwanese blood and hand them to the Americans, so they could develop a virus to kill Chinese people.

This sort of disinformation is so widespread in Taiwan that analysts have given it a moniker: yi mei lun, or the “US scepticism” narrative. Its spread is becoming a major worry for Taiwan’s government and civil society in the run-up to a hugely important presidential election next January. Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion, or should move towards building ties with China. The opposition Kuomintang has called the vote a choice between “war and peace”, implying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s hostility towards China will provoke it to attack. Chinese state actors have backed that framing, spreading narratives that portray America, not China, as the island’s biggest threat. Much of the disinformation is intended to reinforce that false message.

Lo Ping-chen, a cabinet minister who since 2018 has been leading a government task force against disinformation, says it has “severely infiltrated” Taiwan’s society. “We used to think there was more during election season. But it’s now become normalised. It happens every day.” Most Taiwanese voters have little idea of this. A recent survey by Doublethink Lab, a Taiwanese group that studies disinformation, found that less than 20% of respondents believed the false information spread in Taiwan during elections came from abroad. Puma Shen, who heads Doublethink Lab, worries about the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc. “Even if only 15% of voters are truly affected by Chinese disinformation, it takes only 7% of voters to change the election results,” he says.

A recent study of US-scepticism narratives by the Information Environment Research Centre, a Taiwanese research group, found Chinese actors were helping to spread most of them. But more than half appeared to have Taiwanese origins. That suggests China is “piggybacking” on fears in Taiwanese society, says Chihhao Yu, the report’s author. He notes that many Taiwanese have an “orphan mentality”: they fear abandonment by outsiders because of Taiwan’s experience of losing American diplomatic recognition in the 1970s.

Chinese actors are exploiting those worries, just as Russian disinformation exploited America’s racial and cultural cracks to help Donald Trump in 2016. Chinese disinformation also echoes Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine, which claims America is behind the conflict (and is creating bioweapons in Ukrainian labs).

China has developed systematic means to make falsehoods trend in Taiwan, says Chien Yu-yen, a former journalist and author of a book about Chinese influence on Taiwan’s media. She points to a spurious claim that America “wants to blow up” TSMC, a Taiwanese chipmaker. It originated with a misleading video posted on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, which featured an American lawmaker appearing to discuss the possibility. The following morning, a Taiwanese newspaper published a story about the video. Opposition lawmakers and talk-show hosts whipped up outrage. “The journey from China’s Douyin to Taiwan’s mass media, videos, newspapers and television took less than half a day,” says Ms Chien. Chinese state media amplified the narrative, as if merely commenting from the outside on a Taiwanese debate.

Taiwanese officials believe that many of the Taiwanese launching US-scepticism untruths are “local collaborators” taking orders and payments from China. But that is hard to prove, because the suspected Chinese funding is probably funnelled through Taiwanese businesspeople or public-relations firms. Wang Kun-yi, a local commentator who frequently writes US-scepticism narratives for Chinese media and pro-China Taiwanese media, defends his work as a commercial enterprise. All journalists in Taiwan serve the bias of their newspapers’ bosses, says Mr Wang, who has worked for both pro-independence and pro-unification newspapers. “Everyone just treats it as a job,” he says. “It’s a tool to feed yourself.”

Taiwan has laws against foreign infiltration and election influence, but they are limited to cases of proven state-sponsored activity. It has additional laws against spreading wilful falsehood in broadcast media, but they do not cover print or digital outlets. In 2020 the government revoked the licence of CTI News, a pro-China channel, citing repeated failures to verify information. CTI simply moved online.

The case sparked accusations of censorship, which Taiwan wants to avoid. So the government has resorted to more liberal methods of fighting disinformation. It has tried to improve media literacy, provide faster official clarifications and promote fact-checking organisations. But such means cannot match the speed of Chinese propaganda. In August Meta, which owns Facebook, removed a network of more than 7,000 accounts, pages and groups that were spreading Chinese disinformation. But new accounts are easy to set up, a problem that will only accelerate with artificial intelligence, says Mr Lo.

Chinese disinformation has already distorted Taiwan’s public conversation. Will it move votes? Meta has noted that the Chinese disinformation network it removed was “high volume, low reach”, despite having a veneer of engagement designed to make the accounts look more popular than they were. Studies of Russian disinformation in America have found that it has little impact on voter preferences. Despite all the messaging in Chinese and Taiwanese media against the Democratic Progressive Party, its candidate, William Lai, is leading in the polls. And for all the scepticism about America, Taiwanese are even warier of China. A 2022 survey by Academia Sinica, a Taiwanese research institution, found 34% of respondents agreeing that America is a “credible” country. Only 9% said the same of China.

China is to blame. It recently surrounded Taiwan with warplanes and warships even as its ruling Communist Party unveiled an integration plan promising benefits to Taiwanese people living in Fujian, a southern province near the island. Most Taiwanese know where their real threat comes from. But China’s insidious efforts to mislead them are increasing.

The rise of ‘Chinese Communist Party’ as a pejorative

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/desantis-republicans-china-ccp/2023-09-28T18:28:32.832Z
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis used the term “CCP” to refer to the Chinese Communist Party at Wednesday night's debate. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination began with a focus on one specific word: “Fauci.”

“Don’t Fauci my Florida” gear went on sale as part of DeSantis’s bid for reelection to his current job in 2022. It was referring, as you probably know, to the then-chief infectious-disease doctor in the U.S. government, Anthony S. Fauci. Fauci made a convenient point of contrast for DeSantis as he played up his disregard for recommendations aimed at curtailing the spread of the coronavirus. This was partly about his reelection, but also very obviously about drawing a contrast with Donald Trump before next year’s presidential primaries.

After a while, though, the potency of this wore off. The pandemic faded and so did the saliency of the issue. DeSantis shifted gears.

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Following the lead of conservative media, the Florida governor began focusing on “critical race theory” and decrying everything “woke,” whatever that happened to mean on any given day. He advocated legislation that passed through the Republican-led legislature in his state, including the “Stop WOKE Act,” which aimed at uprooting purported manifestations of “wokeism.” In practice, DeSantis’s push meant things like revising how the state taught about the history of slavery and eliminating state programs aimed at bolstering diversity.

But this also lost potency. By the beginning of August, the New York Times was pointing to polling that showed even Republicans didn’t see battling “wokeness” as an important priority. DeSantis mentioned the word “woke” on his campaign social media account four times in June and twice in July — and not since.

This is one of the challenges of being reactive to the public mood, rather than shaping it. Donald Trump, too, launched his first presidential campaign by elevating arguments and rhetoric from right-wing media, but he also shaped what the media was talking about. DeSantis has largely followed the trends, and the trends shift.

On Wednesday night, DeSantis didn’t use the word “woke” once. (He also didn’t say “Fauci.”) But he did use another pejorative term: “CCP,” referring to the Chinese Communist Party. At another point, he referred to his opposition to “communist China.” DeSantis has mentioned “CCP” or Chinese communism six times since the beginning of August — and numerous times before that.

He wasn’t alone in bringing it up during the debate. Vivek Ramaswamy, who is contesting DeSantis’s primacy in amplifying themes from right-wing media, similarly bashed China by way of its leadership: “The Communist Party of China is the real enemy.”

Criticizing China’s communism is by no means new in American politics, of course. But this phrasing, the “CCP” iteration of that criticism, seems to be in vogue at the moment. How did that happen?

As always, a useful way to answer such questions is to look at when it has been used on Fox News. Analysis of closed-captioning collected by the Internet Archive shows that use of “Chinese Communist Party” or “CCP” has been far more common on Fox News and Fox Business than on CNN and MSNBC. But there’s a clear point at which those references became more common: the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020.

This is interesting, if not surprising. The pandemic spurred new attention to the reliability of the Chinese government as questions swirled about how and where the coronavirus first emerged. It was obvious that China was suppressing information about the virus and its effects on its population. There was reason to focus on China and on its leaders, members of the Communist Party.

Of course, President Donald Trump went further, seeking to blame China and those leaders for the spread of the pandemic in the United States largely as a means of exculpating himself. A database of Trump’s comments before and during his presidency shows that he began referring to the Chinese Communist Party only after the pandemic emerged.

The pejorative outlasted that concern about the pandemic. China remains a geopolitical threat to the United States, obviously, so this new appellation has applications that extend beyond how it handled the coronavirus. There was another utility to it in both 2020 and after, of course: it once again pits America against communism. Republicans (and particularly Trump) have repeatedly characterized the American left as communistic — meaning, in this reinvigorated context, that they are anti-American.

The term became popular on the right. DeSantis, an experienced purveyor of right-wing jargon, picked it up. So Fauci and “wokeism” get a moment out of the spotlight.



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